[CLOSED] Block Erupter USB @ 0.20 BTC + parcel -> Shipping to anywhere!

[Lucko]

Did you consider doing group buy for Avalon chips and K16 boards? I think it will take 2 to 3 months but price is good. 3BTC or so for 4.5GH/s. Or is that also forbidden topic?

[matt4054]

Did you consider doing group buy for Avalon chips and K16 boards? I think it will take 2 to 3 months but price is good. 3BTC or so for 4.5GH/s. Or is that also forbidden topic?

A+C is doing such an excellent job, I would be in for any GB involving Avalon chips :-)
I still have about 9 Ghash/sec worth of GPUs to be replaced by ASICs.

Back on topic (or kind of), does anyone else here expect a price drop on AM hardware, sooner than later? With the difficulty probably going >14M in less than a week, they will already have about -33% yield in BTC compared to what they were at launch.

[Lucko]

Back on topic (or kind of), does anyone else here expect a price drop on AM hardware, sooner than later? With the difficulty probably going >14M in less than a week, they will already have about -33% yield in BTC compared to what they were at launch.

As long as they are the only one shipping I don't see that heppening. It might be 10 or 20% but not much more... But if home made ASIC comes on a market... Than it will changed a lot of things...

[tingwahk]

BBC BREAKING NEWS: Mr Croppo receives package loaded with making money sticks!

 

https://i.imgur.com/vYDtbh8.png

Yippy!

[rsbriggs]

The time taken to find 1 block would be 4 years 338 days for 1 stick according to http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/, or am I missing something?

This being from article a year ago when difficulty much lower, but still applying even though time to find block now multiplied by 4 times at current difficulty.  Chance not 1 in 60 from mining for one month - sayer not knowing how probability working.  Probability to EVER generate ANY block solo mining now 3.4% / 4 = 0.85%  and chance to NEVER generate block in under 1.4 million years when solo mining at < 1Gh/s now 99+% percent

So now, let's find what our cumulative probability will be to generate a block. As a rough approximation, our cumulative probability of generating a block under these conditions, after N difficulty periods, would be sum(probability for individual periods). Actually the approximation will be higher than actual probability, since they're not really additive - though the addition is a pretty good approximation when the probabilities are so low. So, designating p = 0.00342634853731, our cumulative probability approximation will be about:
p + .9p + .9^2 p + .9^3 p ....
which at infinity sums to 10p. Thus, under these conditions, the upper bound (remember that summing probabilities produces a higher value than the proper multiplicative cumulative probability) is going to be 0.0342634853731. so /at infinity/, your probability of generating a block is only 3.4% or so. And conversely, your probability of /never generating a block even after millions of years/ is about 96+ percent.

[augustocroppo]

So, designating p = 0.00342634853731, our cumulative probability approximation will be about:
p + .9p + .9^2 p + .9^3 p ....
which at infinity sums to 10p. Thus, under these conditions, the upper bound (remember that summing probabilities produces a higher value than the proper multiplicative cumulative probability) is going to be 0.0342634853731. so /at infinity/, your probability of generating a block is only 3.4% or so.[/i] And conversely, your probability of /never generating a block even after millions of years/ is about 96+ percent.

WOW! Look that lads! We have a red hair Russian Irish temper girl among us which is quite talented in mathematics! It is not that amazing? I am quite surprised.

 

All right, today I will prepare the material to pack and ship the product. So tomorrow I will start to post the product to the buyers.

By the way, photos of the Block Erupter USB coming later today. Keep tuned in.

[Betatester]

You had to pay VAT? if so how much?

It´s all in the order book, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqgZtLSqKPzQdFFqNzNST2MzQUtQWTVzVTVsS3k3VVE&usp=sharing

You pay UK VAT of 20 % on the value of your USB-stick. So that is approx 1$ or 0.007 BTC on 5$ value. Not so much, because it is only USB sticks ;-)

[Schland]

How do I get a couple more? Still taking orders for that 2nd batch?

I would also be interested in an other batch.

[Cranky4u]

Just found this thread today ggggrrrrr

when is the next batch?

[trinsic]

Second batch is happening right now and is closing in 11 hours and 30 minutes and will start accepting payments if it reaches 50 units ordered, otherwise it'll open again till it reaches 50 units minimum.

[rsbriggs]

Is different batch 2 than I ordered in?  Already having 467 units ordered and mostly paid for and showing as closed?

[trinsic]

If you look at the traders book you'll notice a number of users didn't pay. A+C ordered the first 200 and anything after that falls into batch #2.

Looking at it now batch #2 has 84 units paid for so batch #2 is good to go as well.

[pajak666]

I've made my order through provided link, but I don;t get this google trader's form.
where do I ship money for my two units?
Should my order be instantly on that list?

[trinsic]

A+C has to enter you manually into the traders book. Some time after 11 hours A+C will send you an invoice with address to send BTC. Once you pay though you can track the sale in the trader book.


Also A+C, are you taking Paypal? I'd possibly like to get in on another 10.

[Betatester]

Any news about shipping? Angry locust?

[Humax]

The time taken to find 1 block would be 4 years 338 days for 1 stick according to http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/, or am I missing something?

This being from article a year ago when difficulty much lower, but still applying even though time to find block now multiplied by 4 times at current difficulty.  Chance not 1 in 60 from mining for one month - sayer not knowing how probability working.  Probability to EVER generate ANY block solo mining now 3.4% / 4 = 0.85%  and chance to NEVER generate block in under 1.4 million years when solo mining at < 1Gh/s now 99+% percent

So now, let's find what our cumulative probability will be to generate a block. As a rough approximation, our cumulative probability of generating a block under these conditions, after N difficulty periods, would be sum(probability for individual periods). Actually the approximation will be higher than actual probability, since they're not really additive - though the addition is a pretty good approximation when the probabilities are so low. So, designating p = 0.00342634853731, our cumulative probability approximation will be about:
p + .9p + .9^2 p + .9^3 p ....
which at infinity sums to 10p. Thus, under these conditions, the upper bound (remember that summing probabilities produces a higher value than the proper multiplicative cumulative probability) is going to be 0.0342634853731. so /at infinity/, your probability of generating a block is only 3.4% or so. And conversely, your probability of /never generating a block even after millions of years/ is about 96+ percent.

Very impressive calculation! My brain can't keep up. Maybe it's because all I see in my imagination is a sexy female version Sheldon and I'm stunned..... or a super smart Penny with red hair......super stunned!

[rsbriggs]

This being just first year level probability and statistics at Lomonosov.  What they teaching else places?   How to be making fancy Starbuck skinny-soy-skim-mocha latte with whiping creams?

[baloo_kiev]

This being just first year level probability and statistics at Lomonosov.  What they teaching else places?   How to be making fancy Starbuck skinny-soy-skim-mocha latte with whiping creams?

- What do you usually say when you meet %university_name% graduate?
- Big Mac menu please!  

[baloo_kiev]

So what's the news about shipping?

[NR3000]

A+C gone;/