(Closed) Butter Bot!: Premier Bitstamp, and BTC-E EMA Trading Platform (Closed)

[dresdenreader]

You guys should look at the other indicators to see where the market is going if you are going to stare at the bots ema stats screen:
(Taken from RTBTC.com, I highly recommend their paid charting service)

Yeah, I've used this EMA process as a diving board for technical trading. I find it interesting that you're using a 21/14 EMA line up there, what's the logic specifically for that?

Also, I have done a little bit of looking into Stochastic RSI trading on BTCE specifically. What frequency do you find the best for you?

[1713873712]

1713873712

[PuertoLibre]

I am still a newbie to these so your guess is as good as mine.

---------------

I did use crypto-traders backtesting link to figure out a few good settings for upward trend markets vs downward trends.

I noticed it does better than the .25 settings if you apply the two separate trends as they start. (over a period of days and weeks)

My Ema settings for these are locked away on my server so I should be able to get it in about 2 or 3 days. (I am in the middle of an upgrade)

As soon as I have access to it again, I'll give you the settings so you can test them a bit more thoroughly than I did.

--------------

I noticed the 0.25 setting tended to lose money in certain market scenarios.

[dresdenreader]

The way I've been doing it is allowing for the 0.25% on the upswing but changing the selling to be as fast as possible. Reason being that when Bitcoin sells start, they typically can dive pretty fast in a 2-3 hour period, regardless of market conditions. This last 10/21 EMA crossover was a good example of losing a bit if you had waited for the -0.25% mark to sell.

[Kuroth]

Not doing real great the last few weeks..  Not the Bot or EMA's fault at all..  Just that BTC as been sideways most of the last 3 weeks..

I am getting slowly eating away with Trade fees, and slippage..  (Mt Gox must love it)  LOL


In watching this now for a few weeks, we need at least a 0.30 swing in BTC price to make even a small profit..


I guess this is where patience comes in..    All it will take is one or two 0.40 or 0.60 swings up for us to make a decent profit..(Like the one back around the End of Jun into July.  Wish I had been running this then..   )


This is one reason I would LOVE to be able to apply EMA and use a bot against some of the Funds on BitFunder..  There are some huge swings over there on some funds..  I would think if you had a Bot that could trade there using EMA you you could make some serious $$$$$ Over a years time..

[fible1]

Not doing real great the last few weeks..  Not the Bot or EMA's fault at all..  Just that BTC as been sideways most of the last 3 weeks..

I am getting slowly eating away with Trade fees, and slippage..  (Mt Gox must love it)  LOL


In watching this now for a few weeks, we need at least a 0.30 swing in BTC price to make even a small profit..


I guess this is where patience comes in..    All it will take is one or two 0.40 or 0.60 swings up for us to make a decent profit..(Like the one back around the End of Jun into July.  Wish I had been running this then..   )


This is one reason I would LOVE to be able to apply EMA and use a bot against some of the Funds on BitFunder..  There are some huge swings over there on some funds..  I would think if you had a Bot that could trade there using EMA you you could make some serious $$$$$ Over a years time..

Kuroth,
  I'm going to look into the Bitfunder idea. It's nothing we can do right now, but sounds interesting. We have to do a lot of research, but I'll discuss it with the dev team, sounds like a good idea .

Pablo.

[Kuroth]

Not doing real great the last few weeks..  Not the Bot or EMA's fault at all..  Just that BTC as been sideways most of the last 3 weeks..

I am getting slowly eating away with Trade fees, and slippage..  (Mt Gox must love it)  LOL


In watching this now for a few weeks, we need at least a 0.30 swing in BTC price to make even a small profit..


I guess this is where patience comes in..    All it will take is one or two 0.40 or 0.60 swings up for us to make a decent profit..(Like the one back around the End of Jun into July.  Wish I had been running this then..   )


This is one reason I would LOVE to be able to apply EMA and use a bot against some of the Funds on BitFunder..  There are some huge swings over there on some funds..  I would think if you had a Bot that could trade there using EMA you you could make some serious $$$$$ Over a years time..

Kuroth,
  I'm going to look into the Bitfunder idea. It's nothing we can do right now, but sounds interesting. We have to do a lot of research, but I'll discuss it with the dev team, sounds like a good idea .

Pablo.

Yea I figured it could be tricky and maybe not even possible..  But if it is, you(we) could have a gold mine on our hands..

[XZed]

Just take care :

http://thegenesisblock.com/security-risk-identified-at-bitfunder/

[fible1]

Just take care :

http://thegenesisblock.com/security-risk-identified-at-bitfunder/

Very valuable info for our research, thank you!

Pablo.

[Kuroth]

Dumb Question but the Buy and SellThreshold 1's only trigger the Email that a Buy or Sell is imminent correct?   Its the Buy and Sell Threshold 2's where the trade is triggered correct?

[fible1]

Dumb Question but the Buy and SellThreshold 1's only trigger the Email that a Buy or Sell is imminent correct?   Its the Buy and Sell Threshold 2's where the trade is triggered correct?

Yep, all correct .

Pablo.

[dresdenreader]

Hey Fible, with these emails:

Code:

EMA diff is at -0.081% (1 BTC = 104.05555 USD) at mtgox.

A sell order was triggered!

Your friendly trading bot.

Would it be possible to start including actual specifics? i.e. say how much BTC was sold and what the USD balance was after the sell?

Same thing with Buy Orders? Showing how much BTC was bought and what the BTC balance is after the buy?

[fible1]

Hey Fible, with these emails:

Code:

EMA diff is at -0.081% (1 BTC = 104.05555 USD) at mtgox.

A sell order was triggered!

Your friendly trading bot.

Would it be possible to start including actual specifics? i.e. say how much BTC was sold and what the USD balance was after the sell?

Same thing with Buy Orders? Showing how much BTC was bought and what the BTC balance is after the buy?

Dresden,
   We are looking into this, it's been mentioned before. The issue is that technical security and implementation are complex: client side? server side? How much load do we want to put on your machine? We'll take a more detailed look into this after V2.1; it's on the board .

Pablo.

[PuertoLibre]

Not doing real great the last few weeks..  Not the Bot or EMA's fault at all..  Just that BTC as been sideways most of the last 3 weeks..

It hasn't been sideways from what I can see...

I am getting slowly eating away with Trade fees, and slippage..  (Mt Gox must love it)  LOL

Because Goomboo's method only works in certain scenario's.

If the market varies in a certain way, you'll lose a whole lot. If the market varies in a certain way, you'll make about 20% of your full investment.

The failure is (IMO) that the bot uses only one method and one strategy to win. "1 size fits all".

It also seems to lack awareness of what is a good decision vs a bad decision at any given moment. Which means it is not taking into account many different pieces of data. I am not even sure if the B-Bot is taking into account the fee structure at the exchanges. So far, from looking at it, it is only looking at EMA values and that seems to be about the majority of the decision. (?)

Otherwise, there is (or should be) no way to lose actual money on fees.

It is my hope that in a future revision, the B-Bot needs to evolve not only to use "A different strategy" but to use "more than one" depending on prior conditions.

0.25% can earn as much as lose you money.

In watching this now for a few weeks, we need at least a 0.30 swing in BTC price to make even a small profit..

I have my doubts that following the width of EMA lines is alone useful, if the B-Bot doesn't work in concert with other pieces of information it will continue to make bad decision that could otherwise be avoided. Making other decisions that are in concert with the EMA is in line with basic trading strategies.

I guess this is where patience comes in..    All it will take is one or two 0.40 or 0.60 swings up for us to make a decent profit..(Like the one back around the End of Jun into July.  Wish I had been running this then..   )

As a day trader I find this odd to believe.

If you have 100BTC and you earn only 0.40% or .60% that is approximately...100.6 to 100.4 BTC. Happening twice that isn't much.

-----------------

I think the max you can squeeze out of the market is 20% to 40% of whatever you put in (per month).

The problem is the increased risk and losing just as much as you are gaining. GoomBoo's method seems to be about making sure bets at the cost of significant opportunities. So if there were 20 opportunities to increase your wealth then you only took 2 of them because the EMA lines were blatantly profitable.

While you'll get those 2 sure bets to profit from (if the market oscillates the right way and EMA indicators actually work in that instance), some other trader may make 10 bets and win as they took on the added risk.

This is one reason I would LOVE to be able to apply EMA and use a bot against some of the Funds on BitFunder..  There are some huge swings over there on some funds..  I would think if you had a Bot that could trade there using EMA you you could make some serious $$$$$ Over a years time..

I wonder if that would be the case.

There are other strategies beyond EMA which will show you what is likely to be the next turn in the market. The EMA is pretty much reactionary rather than predictive. It tells you what is happening after the fact rather than as it shows up.


I see B-Bot as a good starting platform. If it could be retooled the right way with each individual having the capability of setting up their own methods (beyond or in addition to EMA) then it would work alot better.

I don't think the "1 size fits all" approach is good. There are situations where following the EMA line blindly can and will lose you money.

[Pangia]

Not doing real great the last few weeks..  Not the Bot or EMA's fault at all..  Just that BTC as been sideways most of the last 3 weeks..

I am getting slowly eating away with Trade fees, and slippage..  (Mt Gox must love it)  LOL


In watching this now for a few weeks, we need at least a 0.30 swing in BTC price to make even a small profit..


I guess this is where patience comes in..    All it will take is one or two 0.40 or 0.60 swings up for us to make a decent profit..(Like the one back around the End of Jun into July.  Wish I had been running this then..   )


This is one reason I would LOVE to be able to apply EMA and use a bot against some of the Funds on BitFunder..  There are some huge swings over there on some funds..  I would think if you had a Bot that could trade there using EMA you you could make some serious $$$$$ Over a years time..

Hi Kuroth,

Can you direct me to where I might be able to read up on what Bitfunder is exactly and how it works?

Thanks in advance.

[whydifficult]

Because Goomboo's method only works in certain scenario's.

If the market varies in a certain way, you'll lose a whole lot. If the market varies in a certain way, you'll make about 20% of your full investment.

The failure is (IMO) that the bot uses only one method and one strategy to win. "1 size fits all".

Using TA in a trade bot means that you are building a beta model (in this case a pretty simple one using only a single simple indicator). If you create a more complicated model taking more into account you are not better off per definition. Goomboo's point is that you have complex models and simple ones, and he found that this simple one is making him money.

It also seems to lack awareness of what is a good decision vs a bad decision at any given moment. Which means it is not taking into account many different pieces of data. I am not even sure if the B-Bot is taking into account the fee structure at the exchanges. So far, from looking at it, it is only looking at EMA values and that seems to be about the majority of the decision. (?)

Otherwise, there is (or should be) no way to lose actual money on fees.

Well it would be like looking into the future to know whether a trading decision is good or bad. Here you can see that trading is more like smart gambling (there is always risk, etc.) instead of a solid stream of profit.

The bot uses EMA to detect trends, you shouldn't take fees into account because (with EMA) you can only detect which direction the market will probably move to, but never how long that move will last (and thus what the profit per trade is and whether you should change position based on that profit and the costs = fees).

It is my hope that in a future revision, the B-Bot needs to evolve not only to use "A different strategy" but to use "more than one" depending on prior conditions.

Agreed (except for the depending on prior conditions part), but I think the target audience for this bot is people who are just getting into trading to see if they can make a little profit, etc. Using only EMA is not only simple in the math sense, it's also pretty easy to comprehend. If you are serious about getting into (algo) trading you probably would not use a browser plugin (security issues, stability issues, networking / UI / processing / data storage limitations and the fact that auto browser updates can break it anytime of the day).

I think the max you can squeeze out of the market is 20% to 40% of whatever you put in (per month).

The problem is the increased risk and losing just as much as you are gaining. GoomBoo's method seems to be about making sure bets at the cost of significant opportunities. So if there were 20 opportunities to increase your wealth then you only took 2 of them because the EMA lines were blatantly profitable.

True, (only using) EMA is extremely bad when you want to manage risk. And 20 - 40% per month is extreme from a profit perspective. One of the smartest groups in the market are doing that on a yearly basis (so 12 times less profit per month). And they are not using EMA as their model, they got an army of quants who all using their Phd's in battle.

[fible1]

Not doing real great the last few weeks..  Not the Bot or EMA's fault at all..  Just that BTC as been sideways most of the last 3 weeks..

It hasn't been sideways from what I can see...

I am getting slowly eating away with Trade fees, and slippage..  (Mt Gox must love it)  LOL

Because Goomboo's method only works in certain scenario's.

If the market varies in a certain way, you'll lose a whole lot. If the market varies in a certain way, you'll make about 20% of your full investment.

The failure is (IMO) that the bot uses only one method and one strategy to win. "1 size fits all".

It also seems to lack awareness of what is a good decision vs a bad decision at any given moment. Which means it is not taking into account many different pieces of data. I am not even sure if the B-Bot is taking into account the fee structure at the exchanges. So far, from looking at it, it is only looking at EMA values and that seems to be about the majority of the decision. (?)

Otherwise, there is (or should be) no way to lose actual money on fees.

It is my hope that in a future revision, the B-Bot needs to evolve not only to use "A different strategy" but to use "more than one" depending on prior conditions.

0.25% can earn as much as lose you money.

In watching this now for a few weeks, we need at least a 0.30 swing in BTC price to make even a small profit..

I have my doubts that following the width of EMA lines is alone useful, if the B-Bot doesn't work in concert with other pieces of information it will continue to make bad decision that could otherwise be avoided. Making other decisions that are in concert with the EMA is in line with basic trading strategies.

I guess this is where patience comes in..    All it will take is one or two 0.40 or 0.60 swings up for us to make a decent profit..(Like the one back around the End of Jun into July.  Wish I had been running this then..   )

As a day trader I find this odd to believe.

If you have 100BTC and you earn only 0.40% or .60% that is approximately...100.6 to 100.4 BTC. Happening twice that isn't much.

-----------------

I think the max you can squeeze out of the market is 20% to 40% of whatever you put in (per month).

The problem is the increased risk and losing just as much as you are gaining. GoomBoo's method seems to be about making sure bets at the cost of significant opportunities. So if there were 20 opportunities to increase your wealth then you only took 2 of them because the EMA lines were blatantly profitable.

While you'll get those 2 sure bets to profit from (if the market oscillates the right way and EMA indicators actually work in that instance), some other trader may make 10 bets and win as they took on the added risk.

This is one reason I would LOVE to be able to apply EMA and use a bot against some of the Funds on BitFunder..  There are some huge swings over there on some funds..  I would think if you had a Bot that could trade there using EMA you you could make some serious $$$$$ Over a years time..

I wonder if that would be the case.

There are other strategies beyond EMA which will show you what is likely to be the next turn in the market. The EMA is pretty much reactionary rather than predictive. It tells you what is happening after the fact rather than as it shows up.


I see B-Bot as a good starting platform. If it could be retooled the right way with each individual having the capability of setting up their own methods (beyond or in addition to EMA) then it would work alot better.

I don't think the "1 size fits all" approach is good. There are situations where following the EMA line blindly can and will lose you money.

Hi PuertoLibre ,
   I strongly disagree with a lot of what you have said, I'll take my points one at a time:

1. EMA is predictive in the sense that is uses historical values to project future trends. You are right that it is profitable only in certain scenarios if looked at in the short term the math strongly suggests, that given enough time for the Law of Large Numbers to come in and level mean deviators, you will profit.

Here is a chart of your potential profit if you had been running our bot without intervention for the last year (you will be able to verify all of this when we release back testing in a couple of weeks, but I'm sure even rudimentary EMA back testing will give you similar results).

Notice how the one year shows an 800% profit at the end but the 2 month shows a very small profit at the end preceded by a string of losses. It's a matter of how long you stick to EMA without messing with it to let the math take over and take care of mean deviators:





EMA has been tested again, and again, and again and the math keeps telling us the same thing, if you run it long enough, without interference, you will tend to profit. Don't take my word or Gomboo's on that, run your own back testing on the public EMA algorithm and you will see the same pattern.

2. About the fee structure (I really need to put this one in the FAQ): This has come up before. Intuitively, it seems logical, that the bot not perform a transaction if said transaction would cause a loss because of fees. Think of the following scenario however: A crash begins, it came on all of a sudden so selling now would cause a loss, the bot does not trade; the market implodes, you loose your shirt. The bot must be able to make decisions based on the math, not outright profit or it could be really catastrophic.

3. When Kuroth said he needed a 0.30% swing, he meant a 0.3% swing of EMA, not of the BTC/USD relationship. Depending on what numbers precede the latest calculation, 0.3 EMA could represent several percentage points in a currency relationship making for a handsome profit.

4. I agree that we could have the bot consider more data points, but we can not have the bot use more than one strategy at a time. EMA uses the data points the bot currently has available, there are hacks we can perform on the math for slippage, etc. but the base algorithm uses certain information that can't be altered without altering the algorithm itself. We want to use tried and tested strategies, so we really don't want to go into the business of creating new algorithms. Investment banks spend millions on their trading algorithms and more often than not get it wrong, we want to make available stuff we know works and that can be back tested for years .

5 On this one I also agree with you 100%: letting people input their own strategy. I imagine you mean a way for people to enter their own script and have the bot trade accordingly. That hasn't been suggested before and it strikes me as a genius idea; will definitely look into implementing that .

Please let me know if I may be of service in any way .

Pablo.

[Pangia]

Not doing real great the last few weeks..  Not the Bot or EMA's fault at all..  Just that BTC as been sideways most of the last 3 weeks..

It hasn't been sideways from what I can see...

I am getting slowly eating away with Trade fees, and slippage..  (Mt Gox must love it)  LOL

Because Goomboo's method only works in certain scenario's.

If the market varies in a certain way, you'll lose a whole lot. If the market varies in a certain way, you'll make about 20% of your full investment.

The failure is (IMO) that the bot uses only one method and one strategy to win. "1 size fits all".

It also seems to lack awareness of what is a good decision vs a bad decision at any given moment. Which means it is not taking into account many different pieces of data. I am not even sure if the B-Bot is taking into account the fee structure at the exchanges. So far, from looking at it, it is only looking at EMA values and that seems to be about the majority of the decision. (?)

Otherwise, there is (or should be) no way to lose actual money on fees.

It is my hope that in a future revision, the B-Bot needs to evolve not only to use "A different strategy" but to use "more than one" depending on prior conditions.

0.25% can earn as much as lose you money.

In watching this now for a few weeks, we need at least a 0.30 swing in BTC price to make even a small profit..

I have my doubts that following the width of EMA lines is alone useful, if the B-Bot doesn't work in concert with other pieces of information it will continue to make bad decision that could otherwise be avoided. Making other decisions that are in concert with the EMA is in line with basic trading strategies.

I guess this is where patience comes in..    All it will take is one or two 0.40 or 0.60 swings up for us to make a decent profit..(Like the one back around the End of Jun into July.  Wish I had been running this then..   )

As a day trader I find this odd to believe.

If you have 100BTC and you earn only 0.40% or .60% that is approximately...100.6 to 100.4 BTC. Happening twice that isn't much.

-----------------

I think the max you can squeeze out of the market is 20% to 40% of whatever you put in (per month).

The problem is the increased risk and losing just as much as you are gaining. GoomBoo's method seems to be about making sure bets at the cost of significant opportunities. So if there were 20 opportunities to increase your wealth then you only took 2 of them because the EMA lines were blatantly profitable.

While you'll get those 2 sure bets to profit from (if the market oscillates the right way and EMA indicators actually work in that instance), some other trader may make 10 bets and win as they took on the added risk.

This is one reason I would LOVE to be able to apply EMA and use a bot against some of the Funds on BitFunder..  There are some huge swings over there on some funds..  I would think if you had a Bot that could trade there using EMA you you could make some serious $$$$$ Over a years time..

I wonder if that would be the case.

There are other strategies beyond EMA which will show you what is likely to be the next turn in the market. The EMA is pretty much reactionary rather than predictive. It tells you what is happening after the fact rather than as it shows up.


I see B-Bot as a good starting platform. If it could be retooled the right way with each individual having the capability of setting up their own methods (beyond or in addition to EMA) then it would work alot better.

I don't think the "1 size fits all" approach is good. There are situations where following the EMA line blindly can and will lose you money.

Hi PuertoLibre ,
   I strongly disagree with a lot of what you have said, I'll take my points one at a time:

1. EMA is predictive in the sense that is uses historical values to project future trends. You are right that it is profitable only in certain scenarios if looked at in the short term the math strongly suggests, that given enough time for the Law of Large Numbers to come in and level mean deviators, you will profit.

Here is a chart of your potential profit if you had been running our bot without intervention for the last year (you will be able to verify all of this when we release back testing in a couple of weeks, but I'm sure even rudimentary EMA back testing will give you similar results).

Notice how the one year shows an 800% profit at the end but the 2 month shows a very small profit at the end preceded by a string of losses. It's a matter of how long you stick to EMA without messing with it to let the math take over and take care of mean deviators:





EMA has been tested again, and again, and again and the math keeps telling us the same thing, if you run it long enough, without interference, you will tend to profit. Don't take my word or Gomboo's on that, run your own back testing on the public EMA algorithm and you will see the same pattern.

2. About the fee structure (I really need to put this one in the FAQ): This has come up before. Intuitively, it seems logical, that the bot not perform a transaction if said transaction would cause a loss because of fees. Think of the following scenario however: A crash begins, it came on all of a sudden so selling now would cause a loss, the bot does not trade; the market implodes, you loose your shirt. The bot must be able to make decisions based on the math, not outright profit or it could be really catastrophic.

3. When Kuroth said he needed a 0.30% swing, he meant a 0.3% swing of EMA, not of the BTC/USD relationship. Depending on what numbers precede the latest calculation, 0.3 EMA could represent several percentage points in a currency relationship making for a handsome profit.

4. I agree that we could have the bot consider more data points, but we can not have the bot use more than one strategy at a time. EMA uses the data points the bot currently has available, there are hacks we can perform on the math for slippage, etc. but the base algorithm uses certain information that can't be altered without altering the algorithm itself. We want to use tried and tested strategies, so we really don't want to go into the business of creating new algorithms. Investment banks spend millions on their trading algorithms and more often than not get it wrong, we want to make available stuff we know works and that can be back tested for years .

5 On this one I also agree with you 100%: letting people input their own strategy. I imagine you mean a way for people to enter their own script and have the bot trade accordingly. That hasn't been suggested before and it strikes me as a genius idea; will definitely look into implementing that .

Please let me know if I may be of service in any way .

Pablo.

+1 *****

[PuertoLibre]

It also seems to lack awareness of what is a good decision vs a bad decision at any given moment. Which means it is not taking into account many different pieces of data. I am not even sure if the B-Bot is taking into account the fee structure at the exchanges. So far, from looking at it, it is only looking at EMA values and that seems to be about the majority of the decision. (?)

Otherwise, there is (or should be) no way to lose actual money on fees.

Well it would be like looking into the future to know whether a trading decision is good or bad. Here you can see that trading is more like smart gambling (there is always risk, etc.) instead of a solid stream of profit.

The bot uses EMA to detect trends, you shouldn't take fees into account because (with EMA) you can only detect which direction the market will probably move to, but never how long that move will last (and thus what the profit per trade is and whether you should change position based on that profit and the costs = fees).

I don't understand your point on this. It should at the very least account for fees. (if it doesn't already)

You only need to know of the immediate present at the moment the next trade is calculated and is about to be executed. You will know if the transactions take you into the negative or the positive if fees are disadvantageous in the current trade.

---------------------

The bot uses EMA to detect trends, you shouldn't take fees into account because (with EMA) you can only detect which direction the market will probably move to, but never how long that move will last (and thus what the profit per trade is and whether you should change position based on that profit and the costs = fees).

As far as I know, EMA is an indicator of what the market will probably do and it is (imo) an indicator that gives you info after the fact. Especially the way it is currently used in B-Bot. (takes two given periods for an execution to take place)

If it doesn't account for fees in a trade then, the bot is putting itself at a disadvantage. I don't see that as a feature but as a basic logic bug or perhaps a procedural bug.

The B-Bot also doesn't give any indication of what the expected profit or loss might be if it executed at any given moment. So I don't know if it simply doesn't account for that or if it could be added to the UI and have some basic intelligence added to the rules it operates under.

----------------------
Constructive criticism:

If at the very least the trade is not currently profitable, then don't commit a mistake of executing a needless transaction. It would be dumb to do so.

Every simple mistake like that does deduct from a future scenario where the logic does make it profitable.

If we are talking about trading situation of months and weeks then it makes more sense not to execute a trade when there is a loss. Who knows how the market could vary in that amount of time. Making a recovery possible without needless losses.

(Note: I lost 20+% after leaving the bot running for 1.5 weeks. I am not sure if the Bot will ever be able to make that up and then add a healthy profit on top of that. Each mistake adds up in the end.)

It is my hope that in a future revision, the B-Bot needs to evolve not only to use "A different strategy" but to use "more than one" depending on prior conditions.

Agreed (except for the depending on prior conditions part), but I think the target audience for this bot is people who are just getting into trading to see if they can make a little profit, etc. Using only EMA is not only simple in the math sense, it's also pretty easy to comprehend. If you are serious about getting into (algo) trading you probably would not use a browser plugin (security issues, stability issues, networking / UI / processing / data storage limitations and the fact that auto browser updates can break it anytime of the day).

Agreed. But those systems have yet to be imported into the Bitcoin community.

There should be more effort in the community to use tools that are already available. The problem seems to be that none of the standard trading packages work with BitCoin Exchanges. That is apparently the communities achilles heel.

I think the max you can squeeze out of the market is 20% to 40% of whatever you put in (per month).

The problem is the increased risk and losing just as much as you are gaining. GoomBoo's method seems to be about making sure bets at the cost of significant opportunities. So if there were 20 opportunities to increase your wealth then you only took 2 of them because the EMA lines were blatantly profitable.

True, (only using) EMA is extremely bad when you want to manage risk. And 20 - 40% per month is extreme from a profit perspective. One of the smartest groups in the market are doing that on a yearly basis (so 12 times less profit per month). And they are not using EMA as their model, they got an army of quants who all using their Phd's in battle.

Yeah, but I doubt they see anywhere near the volatility in the BitCoin world.

Just a few days ago, the market varied 15%+. Thats a crazy amount in just 3 or 4 days for a normal market.

The noise from hour to hour is also about 1%. Sometimes more. If people in the real trading community came to Bitcoin they would be making a fortune in no time.

[PuertoLibre]

@ Pablo

I guess I am just fear ridden.

I guess the only way to put those fears to rest inside me is to simply run the back testing over a long period of time. Since your results are 1 year in the making and an 800% increase. I suppose it would make sense to make an EC2 instance (with a free VM instance @ Amazon) and run B-Bot 24x7. At the end of the year open up the account and realize, you are one rich person....

 

So take what I say as if I were that crazy grandma/grandpa with the crazy eyes.

[PuertoLibre]

@ Pablo

By the way, does the back testing take into account the idea that the computer the bot runs on would need to be reset periodically?

Does shutting down and turning on B-Bot every week over the course of that year affect the results? (You said a number of days ago that the bot remembers certain critical things at power on)