(Closed) Butter Bot!: Premier Bitstamp, and BTC-E EMA Trading Platform (Closed)

[Pangia]

Also..  Not sure it helps but I created a new API key and secret on Mt Gox..   So far it seems better..

Update...  No this did not really seem to help..

LoL. I tried it too.
I created a new API on mtgox and it didn't help any. Gotta watch it and trade manually.

[1714033639]

1714033639

[fible1]

Also..  Not sure it helps but I created a new API key and secret on Mt Gox..   So far it seems better..

Update...  No this did not really seem to help..

LoL. I tried it too.
I created a new API on mtgox and it didn't help any. Gotta watch it and trade manually.

Hi Pangia ,

    Trading manually is an option, but please keep in mind that your bot will recover automatically as soon as the Mt. Gox API is back up if you prefer to let it do it's thing.

Please let me know if you need anything .

Pablo.

[dresdenreader]

Sent you the requested info.

Additionally, please remember that the buy the bot tried to do around 12:28 was because I personally initiated a buy shortly after 12 to try and mitigate my losses on BTCE. The buy should have initiated at between 12:00 and 12:01.

[Pangia]

Also..  Not sure it helps but I created a new API key and secret on Mt Gox..   So far it seems better..

Update...  No this did not really seem to help..

LoL. I tried it too.
I created a new API on mtgox and it didn't help any. Gotta watch it and trade manually.

Hi Pangia ,

    Trading manually is an option, but please keep in mind that your bot will recover automatically as soon as the Mt. Gox API is back up if you prefer to let it do it's thing.

Please let me know if you need anything .

Pablo.

Hi Pablo,

I wish I could pay you just for your customer service. You're the man!! Thank you for staying on tops of things.

I know that the bot will execute the buy/sell order once the API is back up again, but the problem is that the API is going down for several hours at  a time and the auto execution might not occur at the opportune time (selling low/buying high). So for now I'm going to have to maintain an eye on things until the mtgox API comes back up.

If btc-e had more volatility I switch over completely.

This isn't the bots fault though.  The bot is perfect!! It's that damn mtgox.

[dresdenreader]

BTC-E has more volatility, but at lower EMA values. For example if you were to look at it in terms of 15 to 30 minute frequencies you'll see it's a bit more volatile short term. Gox is more volatile long term, which is why 1 hour + frequencies tend to yield better payoffs.

[Pangia]

BTC-E has more volatility, but at lower EMA values. For example if you were to look at it in terms of 15 to 30 minute frequencies you'll see it's a bit more volatile short term. Gox is more volatile long term, which is why 1 hour + frequencies tend to yield better payoffs.

Thanks Dresdenreader.  I'm playing on the 1 hour so I'm on gox until they go belly up or someone hopefully surpasses them.

[lolwut]

I just created an api on gox for the first time. The bot bought in using all of the USD in the account automatically, but now it cant seem to connect to the api.

That's weird it worked once and then stopped. I thought it was down completely?

[XZed]

BTC-E has more volatility, but at lower EMA values. For example if you were to look at it in terms of 15 to 30 minute frequencies you'll see it's a bit more volatile short term. Gox is more volatile long term, which is why 1 hour + frequencies tend to yield better payoffs.

Thanks Dresdenreader.  I'm playing on the 1 hour so I'm on gox until they go belly up or someone hopefully surpasses them.

Does this mean that I'm not using the right time frame (1h) with BTC-e :/ ?

[fible1]

I just created an api on gox for the first time. The bot bought in using all of the USD in the account automatically, but now it cant seem to connect to the api.

That's weird it worked once and then stopped. I thought it was down completely?

It's intermittently completely down, the bot continuously tries to reconnect when Gox is down so you may see trades even if the error message is still visible because the bot will push the transaction through even if the API comes back for a few seconds which may not be enough to trigger a change in the error message but will be enough to execute a trade .

Please let me know if you need anything at all.

Pablo.

EDIT: I misspoke when I said the transaction was pushed through our server, currently the bot only gets the price list from the server, I got confused with some development we have been discussing for future versions to help with certain issues. Please accept my apologies if I confused anyone.

[fible1]

BTC-E has more volatility, but at lower EMA values. For example if you were to look at it in terms of 15 to 30 minute frequencies you'll see it's a bit more volatile short term. Gox is more volatile long term, which is why 1 hour + frequencies tend to yield better payoffs.

Thanks Dresdenreader.  I'm playing on the 1 hour so I'm on gox until they go belly up or someone hopefully surpasses them.

Does this mean that I'm not using the right time frame (1h) with BTC-e :/ ?

XZed,
  You are using appropriate settings to replicate Gomboo's suggestions. The discussion our friends are having is about whether shorter time frames would not be better on BTC-E to take advantage of the different market. I really can't speak to this as we haven't back tested it; another of the reasons we are pushing hard to get the back testing engine out the door .

Pablo.

[PuertoLibre]

Pablo should we be concerned?  My bot "seems" to be working but every time now that I click on it, it has the error on the top trying to reconnect?


But if I just mouse over it, I can see my balance ok...  Almost like its not really having issue but saying its having API issues???


Also looks like it did a buy at 1 or 2 am this morning ok..  I went to bed short and now I am long..


So what should we do???


  Thanks!

Same issue here Kuroth. My bot missed the entry to buy this morning on mtgox several times because of the API issue. Then, because it "holds" the buy order until the API is up again, it did so when BTC was a $1 more than it had sold it for the day before. Not the bots fault, but its just frustrating. I know that you have to be patient with the EMA trading strategy, but this whole API thing is a real bummer.

The bot seems to want to do its job, unfortunately however, the mtgox API is making it a losing strategy at this point.

I have seen that happen plenty of times.

Perhaps if the Bot keeps tabs on the last sold price it wouldn't commit such obvious mistakes?

EDIT: I misspoke when I said the transaction was pushed through our server, currently the bot only gets the price list from the server, I got confused with some development we have been discussing for future versions to help with certain issues. Please accept my apologies if I confused anyone.

It sounds like there is an important feature coming up?

[XZed]

XZed,
  You are using appropriate settings to replicate Gomboo's suggestions. The discussion our friends are having is about whether shorter time frames would not be better on BTC-E to take advantage of the different market. I really can't speak to this as we haven't back tested it; another of the reasons we are pushing hard to get the back testing engine out the door .

Pablo.

Thank you .

[Kuroth]

Pablo just curious as to why is it when I mouse over the Bot Icon it always correctly shows my balance at MT Gox?   I always thought this was a indication the bot was connected ok to Mt Gox?   Or is there like 2 different type of connections?  One that shows balance and one that does the trades?


Just wondering..

[fible1]

Pablo just curious as to why is it when I mouse over the Bot Icon it always correctly shows my balance at MT Gox?   I always thought this was a indication the bot was connected ok to Mt Gox?   Or is there like 2 different type of connections?  One that shows balance and one that does the trades?


Just wondering..

Kuroth,

   I'm actually not sure about that, let me forward your query to the lead developer and I will get back to you on that ASAP .

Pablo.

[fible1]

Pablo just curious as to why is it when I mouse over the Bot Icon it always correctly shows my balance at MT Gox?   I always thought this was a indication the bot was connected ok to Mt Gox?   Or is there like 2 different type of connections?  One that shows balance and one that does the trades?


Just wondering..

Kuroth,
  Just got this from the developer:

"(Even when the Gox API crashes) The bot eventually is successful in asking for the funds and shows the numbers in the pop-up when you hover the icon. When the next attempt to get the funds fails it will show the error message but it will still show the old numbers from the last time it was successful.

There aren't two different types of connections it's just that the numbers are cached."

I hope that this answers your questions .

Pablo.

[Kuroth]

I thought maybe it was cached...   Thanks Pablo...

[fible1]

I thought maybe it was cached...   Thanks Pablo...

Whatever you need Kuroth .

Pablo.

[jubalix]

can some on explain, if this bot worked to acquire more btc, why would you need to even bother selling it...?

Hi Jubalix ,
   It's not really "if" the bot works, the math behind the bot is solid and EMA is a well known algorithm. We have based the bots logic behind "Gomboo's Thread" which is one of the most respected trading discussions of EMA as applied to Bitcoin anywhere by one of the most respected members of the Bitcoin community. The thread has a complete explanation of the math behind the bot and why it is profitable over time.

Please take a look here:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.0

As to why we sell it: We are a service provider. Why does ASICMINER sell shares when they are clearly profitable on their own? To raise capital for continued development. We use our own product, one which we continually upgrade and work on. Like ASICMINER, we would make money by trading on our own but providing the B-Bot service allows as to develop the bot beyond what we otherwise could for our benefit and the benefit of all the members of our community.

Please let me know if I may be of service in the meantime .

Pablo.

Thank you for such a polite answer

I think the maths/logic however may disprove EMA or any other method for several reasons

[1] Essentially any system is trying to time travel to the future and convey that in formation to the present.
[2] If any system did work then everyone would be forced to adopt that system. Not every one can profit over time as all trades balance out to a zero sum of losses and profits as every seller requires a buyer thus the as every one switched to that system, it would cancel out its winning effect
[3] the compounding effect of even small repeatable wining strategy e.g. even 0.5% or 0.05% a day would soon have you owning the whole market. This has not happened in any market...

I accept maybe everyone is not using EMA so this may not have kicked in yet for [2]

Hi again Jubalix ,

Let me take your points one at a time:

1. There is a misunderstanding here, EMA does not attempt to travel into the future and apply the information to the present. Rather, it takes historical data, processes it through its algorithm and applies this information to attempt to identify a trend in the present. I am not aware of any system that attempts to time travel into the future and convey the data into the present, because that is, well, impossible. Best case, you can take present data and attempt to make an estimation of the future. To repeat though, EMA takes historical data and processes it to try to identify trends in the immediate present, which strikes me as perfectly reasonable.

2. I agree that this wouldn't apply as not everyone is using EMA, but also, when you consider the day trading bots large banks and clearinghouses use, you realize that it's not a matter of how many people adopt it but rather a matter of how much of the market these people can move, even with a perfect (theoretical) system. Bitcoin is a billion dollar market, I don't think we could put together enough players within any system to effect the market, even assuming a theoretical, perfect system which does not exist. When you realize that the market is very large to move and that no system is perfect (effective systems tend to be profitable, not infallible), it becomes clear this is a moot point.

3. This isn't true for the same reasons discussed in point 2. Furthermore, you seem to be discounting all trading systems, not just EMA. It is a point of fact that there are effective trading systems (again, effective does not mean infallible which you seem to assume), even a cursory review of Gomboo's thread, which I believe I linked before, would reveal to you a whole host of effective trading systems. Commercial banks and clearing houses have devoted their existences to trading systems. Yes, there have been big issues with these, but overall most of the systems used have been profitable when measured over time, otherwise this institutions would not exist, furthermore, traders would not exist as the whole market would be a large casino.

Please let me know if I may be of service in any other way .

Pablo.

I like the way you address my issues point by point very logical and well set out.

[1] my point at one is not that they are doing this but to make repeatable profits they must be able to do this.

[2] ok so you are going to the inefficient market hypothesis, that has legs, and is arguable.

[3] your right 3 restates 2....however I feel that even a small repeatable percentage would compound....and we just haven't seen this anywhere in the market.....on answer may be new trading strategies keep destroying gains of older ones....thats a bit of a long bow though

[Kuroth]

Any word on how the Mt Gox connection is doing today?    I am at work so cant check it.. 


  Thanks!

[Pangia]

Any word on how the Mt Gox connection is doing today?    I am at work so cant check it.. 


  Thanks!

No issues at all today. It's been good since yesterday evening.