(Closed) Butter Bot!: Premier Bitstamp, and BTC-E EMA Trading Platform (Closed)

[fible1]

@Pablo
why are you not in this contest?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=254586.0

This is the first I'm hearing of this .

Anywho, looks like the winner used an EMA strategy .

Pablo.

[1715620226]

1715620226

[Kuroth]

Hi Pablo


First just wanted to say I have been running the latest beta of the bot for over 3 days now and is has had no issues at all..  And I am connected to Mt Gox.   Just the market was been pretty quiet so only 2 trades in almost 4 days and both trades for a slight loss which I expected..  If any of you have not read Goomboos thread I HIGHLY recommend reading the whole thing.  Took me a while but I finished it yesterday..  And I have a MUCH better understanding on how EMA works and that it takes long term patience to stay with it even in the losses..   A Long term EMA strategy will equal out to about 30% winning trades and 70% loosing trades BUT the loosing trades should be pretty small and occasionally your winning trades should be big..    Can you take it if your Bot loses 7 or 8 trades in a row?  Or will you give up?


My questions is can you give us some of new things that will be in the final V2 coming out in a week or two?  Excited to hear what they are..  And what is the estimate on when we will see the ability to back test?  I hope that is coming soon as that would allow us to test out any tweaks to the Prams we make..


Keep up the great work and cant wait to see what is next...

[Kuroth]

Oh and forgot to ask..  Any chance of adding "1 day" as an option to the timefram options of the Bot..  I noticed as Goomboos's thread progressed, he switched his method to 1D instead of 1H.   I would like that option in the Bot..


Actually if not to big of a modification, I would say add all the differnt time options in..

[fible1]

Hi Kuroth ,
   I'm glad you are enjoying your bot, it makes us very happy when people both understand and enjoy our products .

We don't have a fixed ETA on the back testing after the release of V2, but like everything we have been working on, it will be brought out the door as fast as we can make it while maintaining quality standards. Back testing is the feature that I personally most want to see on V2 actually.

I like the idea of higher time frames, I read Gomboo's post and I think it's worth it to add those; the problem however, is that the EMA model requires 144 data points, so, if we where to use a 24 hour frame, that is 144 days of data that we need and we are not sure whether the exchange API's will throttle us or if we can actually hold data that far back. We'll take a better look at it and let you know. Please know we are taking a serious look at this.

Please let us know if you need anything at all, we are here to make your experience as fun and profitable as possible .

Pablo.

[Kuroth]

Makes sense..   If not 1D, maybe a 2H 4H 6H and 12H....

   Thanks..

[PuertoLibre]

Hi Kuroth ,
   I'm glad you are enjoying your bot, it makes us very happy when people both understand and enjoy our products .

We don't have a fixed ETA on the back testing after the release of V2, but like everything we have been working on, it will be brought out the door as fast as we can make it while maintaining quality standards. Back testing is the feature that I personally most want to see on V2 actually.

I like the idea of higher time frames, I read Gomboo's post and I think it's worth it to add those; the problem however, is that the EMA model requires 144 data points, so, if we where to use a 24 hour frame, that is 144 days of data that we need and we are not sure whether the exchange API's will throttle us or if we can actually hold data that far back. We'll take a better look at it and let you know. Please know we are taking a serious look at this.

Please let us know if you need anything at all, we are here to make your experience as fun and profitable as possible .

Pablo.

I have been learning how the bot works by watching it make decisions. I think there is room for improvement with just a few extra features.

Is there any chance that the tables that show up showing the Time, Price, Diff could be outputted in some other form? CSV or just as a regular HTML web page that gets re-generated with ongoing measurements of diff?

The reason I ask is because the bot gives valuable information that can make it extremely trivial to make a profit at any setting. The issue is the chrome plugin seems to generate a valid web page with "all the details" but the page itself is not directly accessible.

I am a fan of automation and would very much love to get my hands on the data spit out by the B-Bot in "popup.html". I have been trading manually alongside the B-Bot in a different account and that has netted me about 10 to 15 BTC in the last two days. But the B-Bot has actually lost .3 BTC in a test account (originally with 4.5 BTC) in the same time frame.

-------------------------

The reason I ask is because I noticed that the B-Bot pays close attention to the differences between the two EMA lines to determine the crossover. Both going up and down. The shape of the curve and the steepness can be determined from simply looking at the difference values. What I haven't seen yet is any form of the bot tracking what the original entry point was. (Maybe it does, but it doesn't give any indication of what that value might be)

I assumed the "Stop Trading Loss" feature was implemented as a way to trigger some kind of percentage where the bot would execute a trade. The only problem is it does not appear to work. (I am unsure)

I place very low settings on the bot to see if it would trigger trades even with a drop of 1%+ (my stop loss setting) and it seems to follow the curve even when it drops more than 1% (in my favor).

So there seems to be a very critical feature missing from B-Bot v2 beta. It follows EMA fine but it loses plenty of trading opportunities. (as evidence on my other account where I gained nearly 15 BTC by follow the EMA lines manually)

--------------------

If I could pull out that table data as a popup.html that keeps tabs on the diff data it would be a godsend. Is there any way to pull it open in any (full featured) browser?

[fible1]

Hi Kuroth ,
   I'm glad you are enjoying your bot, it makes us very happy when people both understand and enjoy our products .

We don't have a fixed ETA on the back testing after the release of V2, but like everything we have been working on, it will be brought out the door as fast as we can make it while maintaining quality standards. Back testing is the feature that I personally most want to see on V2 actually.

I like the idea of higher time frames, I read Gomboo's post and I think it's worth it to add those; the problem however, is that the EMA model requires 144 data points, so, if we where to use a 24 hour frame, that is 144 days of data that we need and we are not sure whether the exchange API's will throttle us or if we can actually hold data that far back. We'll take a better look at it and let you know. Please know we are taking a serious look at this.

Please let us know if you need anything at all, we are here to make your experience as fun and profitable as possible .

Pablo.

I have been learning how the bot works by watching it make decisions. I think there is room for improvement with just a few extra features.

Is there any chance that the tables that show up showing the Time, Price, Diff could be outputted in some other form? CSV or just as a regular HTML web page that gets re-generated with ongoing measurements of diff?

The reason I ask is because the bot gives valuable information that can make it extremely trivial to make a profit at any setting. The issue is the chrome plugin seems to generate a valid web page with "all the details" but the page itself is not directly accessible.

I am a fan of automation and would very much love to get my hands on the data spit out by the B-Bot in "popup.html". I have been trading manually alongside the B-Bot in a different account and that has netted me about 10 to 15 BTC in the last two days. But the B-Bot has actually lost .3 BTC in a test account (originally with 4.5 BTC) in the same time frame.

-------------------------

The reason I ask is because I noticed that the B-Bot pays close attention to the differences between the two EMA lines to determine the crossover. Both going up and down. The shape of the curve and the steepness can be determined from simply looking at the difference values. What I haven't seen yet is any form of the bot tracking what the original entry point was. (Maybe it does, but it doesn't give any indication of what that value might be)

I assumed the "Stop Trading Loss" feature was implemented as a way to trigger some kind of percentage where the bot would execute a trade. The only problem is it does not appear to work. (I am unsure)

I place very low settings on the bot to see if it would trigger trades even with a drop of 1%+ (my stop loss setting) and it seems to follow the curve even when it drops more than 1% (in my favor).

So there seems to be a very critical feature missing from B-Bot v2 beta. It follows EMA fine but it loses plenty of trading opportunities. (as evidence on my other account where I gained nearly 15 BTC by follow the EMA lines manually)

--------------------

If I could pull out that table data as a popup.html that keeps tabs on the diff data it would be a godsend. Is there any way to pull it open in any (full featured) browser?

Hi PuertoLibre ,
   Let me take your questions one at a time:

1. Whatever results you have seen since you got your bot a few days ago, be they profit or loss with B-Bot are likely the product of market randomness. This is the discussion we were having with Kuroth; profitability on an EMA bot, generally any kind of bot, can only be judged in longer time frames as to account for said randomness (think: "The Law of Large Numbers") and let trends emerge and the math do it's job.

I am happy you have seen profit by trading crossover, but again, unless you have been doing this consistently for some time, profits there are also likely the product of market randomness, the true measure of an algorithm is it's profitability over the long term.

I am not saying your strategy is bad, trading crossovers only is an established strategy, but rather that your results are not reflective of the strategy itself. This is part of the reason why professional back testing models generally go back several weeks if not months or years. Our bot is based on Gomboo's discussion of EMA as applied to Bitcoin and all these issues are discussed there, recommended read : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.0

2. The bot calculates 144 data points to determine EMA values. This is 144 points in whatever time frame you select, if your time frame is 1 hour it will go back 144 hours and the first hour will be your entry point.

3. Trailing Stop Loss takes the highest value Bitcoin has achieved since you turned on the bot and will SELL all your BTC if the value goes down from the maximum by the percentage you have specified. So it really was following it's programming when the value changed in your favor, by design, it will only intervene when there is a loss. This is one of those features that is very sensitive to set and that you have to keep an eye on though.

4. I'm not on the technical side so I'm not 100% about the popup.html but I will drop you an email about this when I have an answer for you. As always, we will accomodate you as far as is technically feasible and safe for us to do so.

Please let me know if you have any other questions .

Pablo.

[seleme]

OK, I've just bought this.

But  since I really don't use Chrfome I've got no idea how to setup this. I've tried to open the file I got in mail with Chrome and it shows that it's working on adding extension just to get an info that extensions can't be added from this website (path to the file on my hd).

[threedrules]

locate the file on your disk and drag the file to the extensions and drop it there.

[Kuroth]

OK, I've just bought this.

But   since I really don't use Chrfome I've got no idea how to setup this. I've tried to open the file I got in mail with Chrome and it shows that it's working on adding extension just to get an info that extensions can't be added from this website (path to the file on my hd).

I too struggled with this when I first got the bot and finally after 30 min of googeling and searching the net figured out how to install it.

Pablo I would suggest you add how to install the Bot as a Chrom Extension  to the Bot Docs going forward..  There are a lot of people that probably don’t know how to do this..  And maybe even add “How you know the Bot is installed and working” to the Doc as well..  For example..  Something like a screen shot showing In the upper right side of your Chrome browser you will see the Bot Icon and when you mouse over it, it should show you your Balance on the Exchange you are using(This shows you are connected to your Exchange) and if you click on the Bot Icon in the upper right, it will open the screen with the Chart and the values for each time frame you selected etc..”


  Thanks!

[fible1]

OK, I've just bought this.

But   since I really don't use Chrfome I've got no idea how to setup this. I've tried to open the file I got in mail with Chrome and it shows that it's working on adding extension just to get an info that extensions can't be added from this website (path to the file on my hd).

Hi Seleme ,
  I'm sorry about the confusion. Please enter this address into your Chrome address bar: "chrome://extensions/". Then drag and drop the extension file into the page and you are all set .

As Kuroth suggested, I will be revising the purchase email to include these instructions.


Please let me know if you have any other questions .

Pablo.

EDIT: We have also added a "properly set up" indicator to the Beta update that we will be sending out later today to all current beta testers and which will also be part of the full V2 release .

[fible1]

********************************
V2 Beta Announcement "Butter Bot"
********************************

Friends,
 We have just released an updated version of the V2 Beta. If anyone in the Beta program did not get it already, please drop me an email and I will resend you a copy.

This version includes the following updates:

-Bug fixes and stability improvements

-Connection and proper functioning indicator

- FIAT reserves

- Email-on-trade

-Referral implementation

-Subscription Renewal.

This updated Version is rebranded as "Butter Bot." We will be updating the website and the Bot's layout in time with the release and to go with the rebranding, we hope that everyone enjoys the upcoming changes .

We have a couple more spots open on the Beta program so if anyone wants early access, please just drop me an email. Although most of the final V2 Butter Bot features are in there, we are working on the redesign and other implementation.

Please do not hesitate to contact me if anyone need anything .

Pablo
Pablo@btcbots.com

[Kuroth]

********************************
V2 Beta Announcement "Butter Bot"
********************************

Friends,
 We have just released an updated version of the V2 Beta. If anyone in the Beta program did not get it already, please drop me an email and I will resend you a copy.

This version includes the following updates:

-Bug fixes and stability improvements

-Connection and proper functioning indicator

- FIAT reserves

- Email-on-trade

-Referral implementation

-Subscription Renewal.

This updated Version is rebranded as "Butter Bot." We will be updating the website and the Bot's layout in time with the release and to go with the rebranding, we hope that everyone enjoys the upcoming changes .

We have a couple more spots open on the Beta program so if anyone wants early access, please just drop me an email. Although most of the final V2 Butter Bot features are in there, we are working on the redesign and other implementation.

Please do not hesitate to contact me if anyone need anything .

Pablo
Pablo@btcbots.com

Sweet..  Wil try it out tonight when I get home..

[PuertoLibre]

********************************
V2 Beta Announcement "Butter Bot"
********************************

Friends,
 We have just released an updated version of the V2 Beta. If anyone in the Beta program did not get it already, please drop me an email and I will resend you a copy.

This version includes the following updates:

-Bug fixes and stability improvements

-Connection and proper functioning indicator

- FIAT reserves

- Email-on-trade

-Referral implementation

-Subscription Renewal.

This updated Version is rebranded as "Butter Bot." We will be updating the website and the Bot's layout in time with the release and to go with the rebranding, we hope that everyone enjoys the upcoming changes .

We have a couple more spots open on the Beta program so if anyone wants early access, please just drop me an email. Although most of the final V2 Butter Bot features are in there, we are working on the redesign and other implementation.

Please do not hesitate to contact me if anyone need anything .

Pablo
Pablo@btcbots.com

Hi,
The issue with the mtgox feed being throttled is still there. (Not nearly as persistent in the console log though)

http://pastebin.com/pamjgU7K
http://59bf40500265a9f2e0db-fd3adeab87a9544cb3300f4adbac09d2.r74.cf2.rackcdn.com/2013-07-17_200711.jpg

[seleme]

OK, I've made it

Another question, I can't see btc-e stuff, does it appears after I fill MtGox options or?

[fible1]

OK, I've made it

Another question, I can't see btc-e stuff, does it appears after I fill MtGox options or?

Seleme,
  BTC-E is only available in the Beta. Just drop me an email at pablo@btcbots.com and I'll send you a copy right now .

If you prefer to wait, the full Beta should be released by the end of next week.

I'm here whatever you want to do.

Pablo.

[seleme]

I'll wait, no problem... I am all in WorldCoin currently, couldn't trade btc anyway.

[PuertoLibre]

I have been learning how the bot works by watching it make decisions. I think there is room for improvement with just a few extra features.

Is there any chance that the tables that show up showing the Time, Price, Diff could be outputted in some other form? CSV or just as a regular HTML web page that gets re-generated with ongoing measurements of diff?

The reason I ask is because the bot gives valuable information that can make it extremely trivial to make a profit at any setting. The issue is the chrome plugin seems to generate a valid web page with "all the details" but the page itself is not directly accessible.

I am a fan of automation and would very much love to get my hands on the data spit out by the B-Bot in "popup.html". I have been trading manually alongside the B-Bot in a different account and that has netted me about 10 to 15 BTC in the last two days. But the B-Bot has actually lost .3 BTC in a test account (originally with 4.5 BTC) in the same time frame.

-------------------------

The reason I ask is because I noticed that the B-Bot pays close attention to the differences between the two EMA lines to determine the crossover. Both going up and down. The shape of the curve and the steepness can be determined from simply looking at the difference values. What I haven't seen yet is any form of the bot tracking what the original entry point was. (Maybe it does, but it doesn't give any indication of what that value might be)

I assumed the "Stop Trading Loss" feature was implemented as a way to trigger some kind of percentage where the bot would execute a trade. The only problem is it does not appear to work. (I am unsure)

I place very low settings on the bot to see if it would trigger trades even with a drop of 1%+ (my stop loss setting) and it seems to follow the curve even when it drops more than 1% (in my favor).

So there seems to be a very critical feature missing from B-Bot v2 beta. It follows EMA fine but it loses plenty of trading opportunities. (as evidence on my other account where I gained nearly 15 BTC by follow the EMA lines manually)

--------------------

If I could pull out that table data as a popup.html that keeps tabs on the diff data it would be a godsend. Is there any way to pull it open in any (full featured) browser?

Hi PuertoLibre ,
   Let me take your questions one at a time:

1. Whatever results you have seen since you got your bot a few days ago, be they profit or loss with B-Bot are likely the product of market randomness. This is the discussion we were having with Kuroth; profitability on an EMA bot, generally any kind of bot, can only be judged in longer time frames as to account for said randomness (think: "The Law of Large Numbers") and let trends emerge and the math do it's job.

I am happy you have seen profit by trading crossover, but again, unless you have been doing this consistently for some time, profits there are also likely the product of market randomness, the true measure of an algorithm is it's profitability over the long term.

I am not saying your strategy is bad, trading crossovers only is an established strategy, but rather that your results are not reflective of the strategy itself. This is part of the reason why professional back testing models generally go back several weeks if not months or years.

I am giving your bot plenty of time to see how it does things. I have been reading through Gomboo's discussion and there are very good insights in there. (So far I am only on page 6)

Today the bot lost another .2 BTC in an originally 4.5 BTC account. The current remaining values stand at 4.070 BTC remaining.

In a larger account I do manual trading with I gained 1.7 BTC by doing manual trading today. This was only because I was busy with hardware upgrades and was only able to do 1 trade today.

-------------------------
Side note:

I have completed automating part of (65%) of my strategy as I carefully have analyzed what I actually do and have tried to make all the information come together so all the valuable information is presented to me in one place. The last component on my program is using information made available by B-Bot to assist me in making final decisions. (None of my automation routines can actually see the EMA curves directly, so that is why I am looking at B-Bot to fill in the missing piece of information.)

The goal is to give my eyes a bit of rest since a machine can at first collect information in one place and make intelligent decisions without paying attention to dozens of windows. Ultimately to allow a computer to follow the same rules I use my brain for to do the trading for me.

----------------------

What I find disconcerting is that B-Bot has so far missed so many opportunities (both at 15min scales as well as 1 min scales) that it worries me.

Our bot is based on Gomboo's discussion of EMA as applied to Bitcoin and all these issues are discussed there, recommended read : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.0

2. The bot calculates 144 data points to determine EMA values. This is 144 points in whatever time frame you select, if your time frame is 1 hour it will go back 144 hours and the first hour will be your entry point.

This part also worries me.

Someone asked me an apt question when I read back this portion of your reply. I was asked, how does the bot know that 144 points in the past was a relevant (or even a good) starting point for the future [decisions]?

I couldn't help but shrug as they asked me that because it is a very good question. If the Bot doesn't use the highest recent point as the entry point (but ? apparently) just the 144th entry point from "now", it can apparently make....pretty bad decisions.

The point that came to mind is asking if there is any way to add a feature where:

--A) We can see what that entry point actually is at any given time.

and

--B) Change the length of that entry point to what we want. (72 previous points instead?)

3. Trailing Stop Loss takes the highest value Bitcoin has achieved since you turned on the bot and will SELL all your BTC if the value goes down from the maximum by the percentage you have specified. So it really was following it's programming when the value changed in your favor, by design, it will only intervene when there is a loss. This is one of those features that is very sensitive to set and that you have to keep an eye on though.

First question, does this field accept a negative value?

Second question, Does this rely on the mystery 144th point in the past? (or when I actually turned on the bot?)

Perhaps a bot with internally tweakable settings might allow even more customization.

[whydifficult]

This part also worries me.

Someone asked me an apt question when I read back this portion of your reply. I was asked, how does the bot know that 144 points in the past was a relevant (or even a good) starting point for the future [decisions]?

I couldn't help but shrug as they asked me that because it is a very good question. If the Bot doesn't use the highest recent point as the entry point (but ? apparently) just the 144th entry point from "now", it can apparently make....pretty bad decisions.

The point that came to mind is asking if there is any way to add a feature where:

--A) We can see what that entry point actually is at any given time.

and

--B) Change the length of that entry point to what we want. (72 previous points instead?)

3. Trailing Stop Loss takes the highest value Bitcoin has achieved since you turned on the bot and will SELL all your BTC if the value goes down from the maximum by the percentage you have specified. So it really was following it's programming when the value changed in your favor, by design, it will only intervene when there is a loss. This is one of those features that is very sensitive to set and that you have to keep an eye on though.

First question, does this field accept a negative value?

Second question, Does this rely on the mystery 144th point in the past? (or when I actually turned on the bot?)

Perhaps a bot with internally tweakable settings might allow even more customization.

You are thinking about EMA in the wrong way, in a perfect world you would actually want all data.

The way EMA works is that the previous interval is more important than the the interval that came before it, that is because you are only interested in trends that are currently happening / might happen and not trends that happened in the past. If the bot would not look at any historical data it would not be able to calculate if there is a trend for after a while (gathering data from the start which becomes old data after a while).

If 2 people (A and B) would run a bot that doesn't look at any past data and A is running the bot for months and B just boots it up, only A is able to determine if we are currently in a trend and B wouldn't because you can't just look at the current price to say wether the price is going up or down (you need to compare with past data).

The beauty about EMA is that the relevance of each interval is exponential decreased. This means that all data points are reflected in the current EMA calculation, however they are getting exponentially getting less relevant. The number 144 is was in the free bot this bot is based on, and is a nice combination between having enough past data (having ALL past history would only help you a tiny bit in better calculating the EMAs, since old stuff of exponentially less important) and not spamming the Mt. Gox API to hard / having to wait to long for the bot to start.

There was a discussion in the old thread (for the free chrome browser bot this bot is based on) on what this number should be and it was changed from 20 to 144. In most other bots this is configurable, but you should never change this number except when you know that lowering this number will make your EMA less accurate.

[tralala33]

Today the bot lost another .2 BTC in an originally 4.5 BTC account. The current remaining values stand at 4.070 BTC remaining.

In a larger account I do manual trading with I gained 1.7 BTC by doing manual trading today. This was only because I was busy with hardware upgrades and was only able to do 1 trade today.

I think this bot by design is not a day trading bot which tries to maximize profit at a higher risk, but rather tries to profit from upswings while minimizing losses when the price goes down. During the last "minicrash" 2 days ago it goy me out at 94.4$ using the 0/0.25% hourly setting. When I got to the PC the price was at 89$, so it saved >6% of my money

Are your settings too aggressive maybe so that you run into many false positives and keep losing money on transaction fees?