Avalon batch [3] countdown!

[CoinHoarder]

I'm happy with 100% ROI by Oct 01.

You guys do realize how insane that is, right?

Name any other investment that gives 100% ROI in such a short time.

I agree, our machines will break even long before any ASICMINER USB or Blade ordered today (or even this month and probably last month too.)

[Anenome5]

What I can not stand any longer are bullshits like "We are doing it because of Bitcoin, to secure the network" while actualy they are doing it for
millions of $ without giving a shit about those who will probably really do it for Bitcoin (not bitcoins), given that stories about profit are entering
the domain of sci-fi novels.

Yep, profit is gone. Unless you invest a few million $ to develop your own chips and ass rape the network.

That will happen sooner or later, money printing machines that guarantee profit are not and will never be a consumer product.

Break-even (in terms of bitcoin) in 37.9 days at today's difficulty (4-unit). And these will ship, it seems, within the month.

You can be sure that no batch 3 will be delivered in June. Quote me on that, because it won't happen.

Possibly, but I'll be surprised if they haven't shipped everything by the end of July, except their chip orders.

[Anenome5]

I'm happy with 100% ROI by Oct 01.

You guys do realize how insane that is, right?

Name any other investment that gives 100% ROI in such a short time.

Other investments aren't this risky. The unknowns are huge and that's why the returns must be equally large. These things could have a decent first month, sucky second month, and terrible third month, possibly doubling your money but little more. Or they could be operated profitably for a year. Who knows. Beyond that there's the risks of holding bitcoin itself and the risk of can the company deliver at all.

[lazydna]

What I can not stand any longer are bullshits like "We are doing it because of Bitcoin, to secure the network" while actualy they are doing it for
millions of $ without giving a shit about those who will probably really do it for Bitcoin (not bitcoins), given that stories about profit are entering
the domain of sci-fi novels.

Yep, profit is gone. Unless you invest a few million $ to develop your own chips and ass rape the network.

That will happen sooner or later, money printing machines that guarantee profit are not and will never be a consumer product.

Break-even (in terms of bitcoin) in 37.9 days at today's difficulty (4-unit). And these will ship, it seems, within the month.

errr did you factor in the 20% difficulty changes happening every 7 days?

like the 23% increase coming in 19hours?

[josh_nc]

It is not happening every 7 days.... yet. More like every 12 days for now but you are right, it will get tight to make a profit, particularly with the BTC coming down. There is not enough urgency in the buying population as compared to the selling population. If Amazon, eBay, PayPal, Walmart, MacDonald's, so on started accepting BTC then we will see a more steady rise and we would have a constant flow of capital to re-invest to keep afloat. As it is now we are in a high risk game and the price of BTC may keep falling. USB devices or low GH/s are history at this point. Not at all worth the investment for the serious miner.

[josh_nc]

The difficulty will be higher after B2 completes and all of us get our B3s (~100THs).  Then there are the avalon chip sales following 4 to 8 weeks from now (200THs).

Current network hash power is around 120TH/s.  So.. we are looking at 2x difficulty with shipment of B2 and B3 ~ 240TH/s (Difficulty ~32M)... and then doubling again with Avalon chip sales not too long after ~480TH/s (difficulty 64M).

This is ignoring all of the competitors who won't be sitting still (like Asic Miner and bitfury).

I am hopeful that if difficulty can stay under 100M+ for 4 months, then our Batch3s can break even in 6 or 7 months. At 100M difficulty, an overclocked 4module B3  (~97GH/s) should return around .5 BTC a day.

I am not complaining... just stating facts as they have been communicated.
Using todays difficulty projections for our batch is misleading at best.

Thanks for the analysis.

From that I gather that the price for a not-yet delivered Avalon batch 3 machine is dropping pretty quickly.  This is doubly true for those other guys who are struggling to deliver product.

The question I ponder is what is the "floor" price for a mining rig?  Is it breaking even in 6 months or 2 years?  The build cost of a mining rig be low enough to support a reasonable break even point?

Great analysis. On top of that if we want to continue mining we need capital to keep investing in new appliances. If BTC doesn't go up and actually falls, I believe the dream will be over for a lot of miners. No one at this point should expect to live off of mining. It has to be a secondary source of income at best. Right now mining is a huge risk. We want to generate as much BTC/day as possible but so is everybody else which makes the difficulty increase faster and faster. It is self-defeating! I am investing large for my average budget and already feel a rope around my neck.

J/

[rudrigorc2]

The difficulty will be higher after B2 completes and all of us get our B3s (~100THs).  Then there are the avalon chip sales following 4 to 8 weeks from now (200THs).

Current network hash power is around 120TH/s.  So.. we are looking at 2x difficulty with shipment of B2 and B3 ~ 240TH/s (Difficulty ~32M)... and then doubling again with Avalon chip sales not too long after ~480TH/s (difficulty 64M).

This is ignoring all of the competitors who won't be sitting still (like Asic Miner and bitfury).

I am hopeful that if difficulty can stay under 100M+ for 4 months, then our Batch3s can break even in 6 or 7 months. At 100M difficulty, an overclocked 4module B3  (~97GH/s) should return around .5 BTC a day.

I am not complaining... just stating facts as they have been communicated.
Using todays difficulty projections for our batch is misleading at best.

Thanks for the analysis.

From that I gather that the price for a not-yet delivered Avalon batch 3 machine is dropping pretty quickly.  This is doubly true for those other guys who are struggling to deliver product.

The question I ponder is what is the "floor" price for a mining rig?  Is it breaking even in 6 months or 2 years?  The build cost of a mining rig be low enough to support a reasonable break even point?

Great analysis. On top of that if we want to continue mining we need capital to keep investing in new appliances. If BTC doesn't go up and actually falls, I believe the dream will be over for a lot of miners. No one at this point should expect to live off of mining. It has to be a secondary source of income at best. Right now mining is a huge risk. We want to generate as much BTC/day as possible but so is everybody else which makes the difficulty increase faster and faster. It is self-defeating! I am investing large for my average budget and already feel a rope around my neck.

J/

look the most successful asic thing: its funded and managed by its owners. we live in an era of crowfunding stuff and that project been proved its effectiveness in mining area too, and yet most of us funded the asic sellers that makes us wait so much in the dust, we became merely costumers with no rights again, the salvation became a trap. I would say asic sellers hostages while they rush to flood the market with power.

we had a choice, but we were never we in this bitcoin stuff. just look at the guys cheering getting 3 units while people are still waiting for one, look at the guys cheering receiving order first than they sould receive. look at the guys rushing to sell the thing. is this protecting the network? which network?
its clear now only few people cares about the project and the changes it will yet bring. only a quick profit. but thats good to see how easy are people when then face the green bill. a show of mismanagement and disrespect going on here. the sad thing it is still everyman for himself in this thing, and like this we will always sucumb to the exploiters. we should never had given the power away.

[peterepeat]

The difficulty will be higher after B2 completes and all of us get our B3s (~100THs).  Then there are the avalon chip sales following 4 to 8 weeks from now (200THs).

Current network hash power is around 120TH/s.  So.. we are looking at 2x difficulty with shipment of B2 and B3 ~ 240TH/s (Difficulty ~32M)... and then doubling again with Avalon chip sales not too long after ~480TH/s (difficulty 64M).

This is ignoring all of the competitors who won't be sitting still (like Asic Miner and bitfury).

I am hopeful that if difficulty can stay under 100M+ for 4 months, then our Batch3s can break even in 6 or 7 months. At 100M difficulty, an overclocked 4module B3  (~97GH/s) should return around .5 BTC a day.

I am not complaining... just stating facts as they have been communicated.
Using todays difficulty projections for our batch is misleading at best.

Thanks for the analysis.

From that I gather that the price for a not-yet delivered Avalon batch 3 machine is dropping pretty quickly.  This is doubly true for those other guys who are struggling to deliver product.

The question I ponder is what is the "floor" price for a mining rig?  Is it breaking even in 6 months or 2 years?  The build cost of a mining rig be low enough to support a reasonable break even point?

Great analysis. On top of that if we want to continue mining we need capital to keep investing in new appliances. If BTC doesn't go up and actually falls, I believe the dream will be over for a lot of miners. No one at this point should expect to live off of mining. It has to be a secondary source of income at best. Right now mining is a huge risk. We want to generate as much BTC/day as possible but so is everybody else which makes the difficulty increase faster and faster. It is self-defeating! I am investing large for my average budget and already feel a rope around my neck.

J/

look the most successful asic thing: its funded and managed by its owners. we live in an era of crowfunding stuff and that project been proved its effectiveness in mining area too, and yet most of us funded the asic sellers that makes us wait so much in the dust, we became merely costumers with no rights again, the salvation became a trap. I would say asic sellers hostages while they rush to flood the market with power.

we had a choice, but we were never we in this bitcoin stuff. just look at the guys cheering getting 3 units while people are still waiting for one, look at the guys cheering receiving order first than they sould receive. look at the guys rushing to sell the thing. is this protecting the network? which network?
its clear now only few people cares about the project and the changes it will yet bring. only a quick profit. but thats good to see how easy are people when then face the green bill. a show of mismanagement and disrespect going on here. the sad thing it is still everyman for himself in this thing, and like this we will always sucumb to the exploiters. we should never had gave the power away.

I imagine the mining "goldrush" may change a bit if BTC/USD breaks technical support on the downside for 6-12 months with the new ASIC investors selling their coins, and languishes below $20 for a while.

[josh_nc]

On a side issue also relevant to profitability and long term mining:

I have been monitoring the sums of buys and sells on http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ and I set the Group by price at 0.25. I can see very strong buy volumes compared with the sell volumes. Normally, this should indicate the price going up which is not happening and here's where I see a problem. The buy orders are holding ground, it looks like there is no urgency to buy. The sell order, on the other hand, is showing the opposite. They seem to lower to sell at the bid often driving the price down.
 
There does not seem to be any effort on the part of the sellers to hold on to their ask prices as much as the buyers to their bids. Why not?

I find this puzzling and have even suspected of Wall St dirty games with all the Bernanke free play fiat.. Anyone care to comment?

J/

[Matthew N. Wright]

On a side issue also relevant to profitability and long term mining:

I have been monitoring the sums of buys and sells on http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ and I set the Group by price at 0.25. I can see very strong buy volumes compared with the sell volumes. Normally, this should indicate the price going up which is not happening and here's where I see a problem. The buy orders are holding ground, it looks like there is no urgency to buy. The sell order, on the other hand, is showing the opposite. They seem to lower to sell at the bid often driving the price down.
 
There does not seem to be any effort on the part of the sellers to hold on to their ask prices as much as the buyers to their bids. Why not?

I find this puzzling and have even suspected of Wall St dirty games with all the Bernanke free play fiat.. Anyone care to comment?

J/

Seems to me that is just more evidence that bitcoin is primarily used as a speculative investment vehicle and nobody actually uses it as a currency.

[josh_nc]

But if it is being used for speculation then the more reason to bargain hard to bring the price up, no? Unless those buying large are expecting a big price increase OR they are buying cheap to dump and keep driving prices down. Either way it is strange...kind of dark. I also agree that people seem seduced by the dream of a money-making machine to fulfill their desires and may be losing the focus on the important goal: a currency that cannot be trampled with. Idealism being killed by opportunism! The psycopaths, they are everywhere!

One other point to consider: East x West. The East is cooperativist whilst the West is individualist.
There's a strong cultural angle to this we can't dismiss.

J/

[peterepeat]

On a side issue also relevant to profitability and long term mining:

I have been monitoring the sums of buys and sells on http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ and I set the Group by price at 0.25. I can see very strong buy volumes compared with the sell volumes. Normally, this should indicate the price going up which is not happening and here's where I see a problem. The buy orders are holding ground, it looks like there is no urgency to buy. The sell order, on the other hand, is showing the opposite. They seem to lower to sell at the bid often driving the price down.
 
There does not seem to be any effort on the part of the sellers to hold on to their ask prices as much as the buyers to their bids. Why not?

I find this puzzling and have even suspected of Wall St dirty games with all the Bernanke free play fiat.. Anyone care to comment?

J/

Have a look at http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
most of the new equipment being brought online in the last few months is making BTC with a cost of production probably less than $20 per coin. Why should it be higher at the moment?
Perhaps the majority are not hoarding.

Maybe its going to be like what happened after the $30 GPU peak?

[WinTame2012]

But if it is being used for speculation then the more reason to bargain hard to bring the price up, no? Unless those buying large are expecting a big price increase OR they are buying cheap to dump and keep driving prices down. Either way it is strange...kind of dark. I also agree that people seem seduced by the dream of a money-making machine to fulfill their desires and may be losing the focus on the important goal: a currency that cannot be trampled with. Idealism being killed by opportunism! The psycopaths, they are everywhere!

One other point to consider: East x West. The East is cooperativist whilst the West is individualist.
There's a strong cultural angle to this we can't dismiss.

J/

Thread derailing accomplished 

[peterepeat]

Back to waiting. looking forward to the DHL van in my driveway 

[Anenome5]

The difficulty will be higher after B2 completes and all of us get our B3s (~100THs).  Then there are the avalon chip sales following 4 to 8 weeks from now (200THs).

Current network hash power is around 120TH/s.  So.. we are looking at 2x difficulty with shipment of B2 and B3 ~ 240TH/s (Difficulty ~32M)... and then doubling again with Avalon chip sales not too long after ~480TH/s (difficulty 64M).

This is ignoring all of the competitors who won't be sitting still (like Asic Miner and bitfury).

I am hopeful that if difficulty can stay under 100M+ for 4 months, then our Batch3s can break even in 6 or 7 months. At 100M difficulty, an overclocked 4module B3  (~97GH/s) should return around .5 BTC a day.

I am not complaining... just stating facts as they have been communicated.
Using todays difficulty projections for our batch is misleading at best.

Thanks for the analysis.

From that I gather that the price for a not-yet delivered Avalon batch 3 machine is dropping pretty quickly.  This is doubly true for those other guys who are struggling to deliver product.

The question I ponder is what is the "floor" price for a mining rig?  Is it breaking even in 6 months or 2 years?  The build cost of a mining rig be low enough to support a reasonable break even point?

Great analysis. On top of that if we want to continue mining we need capital to keep investing in new appliances. If BTC doesn't go up and actually falls, I believe the dream will be over for a lot of miners. No one at this point should expect to live off of mining. It has to be a secondary source of income at best. Right now mining is a huge risk. We want to generate as much BTC/day as possible but so is everybody else which makes the difficulty increase faster and faster. It is self-defeating! I am investing large for my average budget and already feel a rope around my neck.

J/

look the most successful asic thing: its funded and managed by its owners. we live in an era of crowfunding stuff and that project been proved its effectiveness in mining area too, and yet most of us funded the asic sellers that makes us wait so much in the dust, we became merely costumers with no rights again, the salvation became a trap. I would say asic sellers hostages while they rush to flood the market with power.

we had a choice, but we were never we in this bitcoin stuff. just look at the guys cheering getting 3 units while people are still waiting for one, look at the guys cheering receiving order first than they sould receive. look at the guys rushing to sell the thing. is this protecting the network? which network?
its clear now only few people cares about the project and the changes it will yet bring. only a quick profit. but thats good to see how easy are people when then face the green bill. a show of mismanagement and disrespect going on here. the sad thing it is still everyman for himself in this thing, and like this we will always sucumb to the exploiters. we should never had gave the power away.

I imagine the mining "goldrush" may change a bit if BTC/USD breaks technical support on the downside for 6-12 months with the new ASIC investors selling their coins, and languishes below $20 for a while.

If that happened, the best thing about it would be that the difficulty would likely drop considerably, and those of us with long-term vision, or perhaps simply gambling on bitcoin's rise, will be able to mop-up cheap coins from the disheartened.

[statdude]

(deleted)

[overc]

Any info/rumors about when batch 3 will be start shipped ?

[jspielberg]

Keep it quiet... but the latest rumor is....
.
.
.
after Batch 2 and the trade-ins are completed! 
 
With almost no information to back this up, I would say they are probably about 1/3 to 1/2 of the way through batch 2.  It seems shipping in earnest started about 2 weeks ago. So... I would say batch two will complete in 2 to 3 weeks... and then maybe a week for the trade-ins.

So... picking numbers completely out of my butt... I would say in 3 to 4 weeks. 

The big question for me is... will they ship chips before or after B3... and how much before or after?

[Bowjob]

bfl is shipping 500 gigahash units.. wow

[mik3]

bfl is shipping 500 gigahash units.. wow

Yep, I think we are completely and utterly fucked now... I was hoping to at least recoup my investment, but... I don't know what to think anymore, someone hold me, i'm scared.