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[OgonDark]

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Order: #5125
Product   Quantity   Price
Avalon ASIC Unit – Batch Three
PSU: with ATX power supply,
Modules: 3 modules: 63 Gh/s   8   ฿594.86
Cart Subtotal:   ฿594.86
Shipping:   ฿5.60 via SF
Order Total:   ฿600.46
Customer details
my ORDER SF302324081733

Wow, 600 bitcoin for 8 units? That's ~500gigahash/sec. ~23% on your investment, which isn't bad if the diff pans out, for sure, although the amount of time needed to achieve ROI based on expected diff increase of 130 days is why I pulled out, because if KNC ships these may never ROI.

I'm kinda surprised you didn't ask for a refund given how tough ROI looks right now. I guess we all have our different assessments of how quickly difficulty is set to increase right about now.

https://i.imgur.com/Qgb0Ohd.png

I look at 600 bitcoin and I see 10 KNC Jupiter miners at 400gh/sec each, that's 4 terahash total and looks like so:

https://i.imgur.com/mWsxoCL.png


Assuming they do ship in September that's like 400% on your money, with a much more efficient chip as well.

Well, no doubt you know what you're doing! I wish you luck, sir

Maybe just an oversight in your analysis there, but shouldn't you raise the starting difficulty for your Jupiter calculations to something more like what it would be like in September? 

You used the same starting difficulty, when obviously an Avalon in the hand now is the only one of those two that actually will mine at that difficulty.  It would seem to throw off the whole calculation quite a bit if you were to start your Jupiter calculations at something like 50mil+ instead of where you have it now.

To try and keep this on topic, I have an early order (47XX) Avalon, but they are 4 module, and I still see "Processing" as status.  Are we noticing a trend that 4 module machines don't seem to have shipped yet?  Might make some sense out of the out of order shipping...

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[Anenome5]

Maybe just an oversight in your analysis there, but shouldn't you raise the starting difficulty for your Jupiter calculations to something more like what it would be like in September? 

See where it says 'time to delivery,' that uses the historical difficulty increase to predict difficulty out two months. It's true that KNC shipping in Sept will be an above average boost to the difficulty that will be offset a bit by people stopping mining with less efficient hardware but not that much. So, this chart actually represents a best-case scenario of sorts, with 130 days ROI being optimistic. This is yet another reason why I obtained a refund.

You used the same starting difficulty, when obviously an Avalon in the hand now is the only one of those two that actually will mine at that difficulty.

Well, again check the 'time to delivery field.' It's zero for the top calculation for the avalon, and two months for the KNC calc.

It would seem to throw off the whole calculation quite a bit if you were to start your Jupiter calculations at something like 50mil+ instead of where you have it now.

Naw, it's accounting for that using historical average, which may be high or low but at least is something.

To try and keep this on topic, I have an early order (47XX) Avalon, but they are 4 module, and I still see "Processing" as status.  Are we noticing a trend that 4 module machines don't seem to have shipped yet?  Might make some sense out of the out of order shipping...

Doubtful. I see no reason why a 4 would be delayed over 3's.

[GodfatherBond]

I have also (47XX) Avaon 4 module order and still processing...

[koob]

Maybe 4 modules will be those with new design, thats why delayed ?

[martinm]

Maybe 4 modules will be those with new design, thats why delayed ?

Maybe, but I have to admit that as long Bitsyncom doesn't provide a compensation for the delay, I don't really care about the reason. The reason only matters if it is link with a positive effect on the ROI, I feel already like the cashcow of Bitsyncom, they justify they price about the ROI, but after they received the money they don't care anymore about the selling point. This is like delivering a spoiled product

[Milan77]

Maybe 4 modules will be those with new design, thats why delayed ?

Maybe, but I have to admit that as long Bitsyncom doesn't provide a compensation for the delay, I don't really care about the reason. The reason only matters if it is link with a positive effect on the ROI, I feel already like the cashcow of Bitsyncom, they justify they price about the ROI, but after they received the money they don't care anymore about the selling point. This is like delivering a spoiled product

I must admit you are right.

[jspielberg]

Maybe 4 modules will be those with new design, thats why delayed ?

Maybe, but I have to admit that as long Bitsyncom doesn't provide a compensation for the delay, I don't really care about the reason. The reason only matters if it is link with a positive effect on the ROI, I feel already like the cashcow of Bitsyncom, they justify they price about the ROI, but after they received the money they don't care anymore about the selling point. This is like delivering a spoiled product

I think that is why they offered the refund.  Bitsyncom seems like their approach is "take it or leave it."  They gave the offer to leave it.

Personally I think if there is any delay on 4-modules, it is because they are using the new design.

[zoro]

48xx 3module already at hong kong! 

[martinm]

Maybe 4 modules will be those with new design, thats why delayed ?

Maybe, but I have to admit that as long Bitsyncom doesn't provide a compensation for the delay, I don't really care about the reason. The reason only matters if it is link with a positive effect on the ROI, I feel already like the cashcow of Bitsyncom, they justify they price about the ROI, but after they received the money they don't care anymore about the selling point. This is like delivering a spoiled product

I think that is why they offered the refund.  Bitsyncom seems like their approach is "take it or leave it."  They gave the offer to leave it.

Personally I think if there is any delay on 4-modules, it is because they are using the new design.

That's right, but this offered refund smells fishy if they can't keep their word that they will deliver all Batch 3 machines during the next 2 weeks (one more week to go). They gave us 2 days to decide to refund, and it felt like " Hey you can get your money back, but think twice because we will send your machine out NOW(next two weeks)! That's the reason why we will not accept any refund after these two days". Sound for very similar to they statement with that they sold Batch 3 "Hey actually we don't want to sell any machines but we will do it for you as last chance to get a machine. The only condition is that you need to pay 4 times more, but hey don't be worry that's a fair price based on the ROI!". It's like putting a gun at your head and ask you to make a decision, it's clear that nobody was forced to order, but why people did? It's easy, they used peoples trust for being the first one started shipping asics, so people tend to believe their statements as they think these are the trustful capable guys. However, for me it looks like a very smart business strategy to get as rich as possible by the easiest way possible. People asking why they don't mined by them self, why they don't stopped delivering? Follow the money and you get the answers, they took money from Batch 1# to finance their operation, maybe it wasn't even enough to cover all cost to deliver all B1 machines. So what to do in that situation? Just open a new sales to refinance your operation, so they started to sell B2 and shipped B1 slowly. How to maximize profits? Just keep mining with the machines as long as possible. I'm quite sure that at the time after sales of B2, including their mining operation, they already had a good  profitable business, but that was not enough. Again how a company could increase the profits as much as possible? Just sell more with a higher price as long the lack of competition allows it, if and when you deliver is not  important, just collect as much cash as possible. So they started to sell B3 and their chips, at this point they got the most profit out of this business as possible. The great thing is that they don't  need to fear any legal action, so it's legit (BitSyncom is still a US company, not Chinese)! They used the trust gained by being the first ones to get as much cash as possible over the time. This shows me their real face, but cash rules, so they could be successful on the long term. History shows us that people that are able to sell things out of nothing, can become big companies (e.g. Bill Gates and his first deal with IBM, he sold something he didn't had, and was the first one that achieve a license based profit from software. Rockefeller made his first big deal with Vanderbilt about an amount of oil that he was not able to sell/produce at the time the deal was made). These people used strategies to get the best conditions for a deal, even they were clear that they are not able to fulfill it at that time. The big difference between these guys and BitSyncom is that they made deals with other companies and BitSyncom is using us as bakers. However let's see how this will end for us, Yifu is already a rich man.

[Anenome5]

Hey, hey, calm down. They offered a full refund. In bitcoin for god's sake. If you're still in the queue you've made your choice. And they gave 4 days, not 2. Longer would've been preferable but it is what it is.

This is far, far better than what BFL pulled, ending refunds because they'd "shipped" one device. How many thousands of customers does BFL have that will -never- ROI now. At least there's still a chance with your Avalons.

[JeanCool]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ck-h0oG2msA

[Milan77]

Batch 3 avalons comes with 30 BTC premined.... Just the trick is that they are not yours Someone forgot to pack it up

[ProfMac]

Batch 3 avalons comes with 30 BTC premined.... Just the trick is that they are not yours Someone forgot to pack it up

Source?

[martinm]

Hey, hey, calm down. They offered a full refund. In bitcoin for god's sake. If you're still in the queue you've made your choice. And they gave 4 days, not 2. Longer would've been preferable but it is what it is.

This is far, far better than what BFL pulled, ending refunds because they'd "shipped" one device. How many thousands of customers does BFL have that will -never- ROI now. At least there's still a chance with your Avalons.

Ones bad behavior does not justify it for another one! For me its like a childish way to search for excuses like : " but ,but, but the other kids also drink beer on that day" -> So what, does it mean you have to?

 

[ProfMac]

I notice a new address on eligius at about the right speed to be a 3 module Avalon, and about the right timing to be a Batch 3 machine.


This one intrigue's me.  Surely it isn't solar powered.


edit 19:49 CDT:  now it looks like they flashed it with the new software.

[pikeadz]

This one intrigue's me.  Surely it isn't solar powered.

The simplest explanation is someone is using their Avalon as an Etch-a-Sketch to make such a purdy design.  That, however, is not the most likely explanation.

[ProfMac]

This one intrigue's me.  Surely it isn't solar powered.

The simplest explanation is someone is using their Avalon as an Etch-a-Sketch to make such a purdy design.  That, however, is not the most likely explanation.

Maybe they are in Australia, and have their farm connected to their thermostat.

[josh_nc]

Batch 3 avalons comes with 30 BTC premined.... Just the trick is that they are not yours Someone forgot to pack it up

Oh Wow! So may be they will all have a 30BTC gift from Yifu for our patience and losses.

Not!!!

[martinm]

Is there any update of an 4 module Avalon that is in shipping or already delivered, any statement of Bitsyncom why they are not able to deliver?

[luffy]

I contact the custom, they told me they are waiting the paperwork (it is coming with a different airplane!!!!!)
anyway, they told me that they need a document about certification component!? (something like that, is this the CE?)
i hope this document is included in the paperwork or else i have to search it where?