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efodix
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June 13, 2013, 07:37:33 AM |
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I think your Terrahash prices are way off. They're about 10 times more expensive than what it says in your chart on the first page...
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FCTaiChi (OP)
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June 13, 2013, 02:19:05 PM |
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I think your Terrahash prices are way off. They're about 10 times more expensive than what it says in your chart on the first page...
I guess they changed prices. Is the ellipses to show your disdain for such an error? lol |
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Mabsark
Legendary
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Activity: 826
Merit: 1004
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June 13, 2013, 05:25:27 PM |
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We have started just a nice discussion here. I have been thinking about that model used here - constant network growth on each retarget. I don't think it's possible even for a year. I created a chart with data from this year and +12% on each reatrget up to december 2014. That's exponential growth up to 26,000 Thash by the end of next year (dec 2014)! Just make a chart with all that data and you will see that sharp exponential growth. I don't see how all that hash power can be added in a year. I see something like linear growth up to 3,000 or maybe 5,000 Thash in that time. EDIT: uploaded a (stacked) chart https://www.dropbox.com/s/5o66n1h13eccdmb/hashrate12.pngEDIT2: and another speculation, 3PH next year: https://www.dropbox.com/s/rage8ununtfowom/hashrate-3P.pngI pointed this out to some person in a different thread. I think he was using a a fixed 30% increase, and one of the increases he had calculated meant adding 2 million Th/s. Basically, there's a maximum hash rate that each company can bring online per time period and the sum of those values corresponds to the maximum change in difficulty. |
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alibert
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June 13, 2013, 05:41:01 PM |
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i dont think it will grow THAT fast. GPU miners will stop at some point, where mining makes no sense to them and no new GPU miners will join. next FPGA miners will stop. Also with a incredible difficulty the ROI of ASICs will shrink and people will not hurry into them.
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ThatDGuy
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June 13, 2013, 05:48:17 PM |
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i dont think it will grow THAT fast. GPU miners will stop at some point, where mining makes no sense to them and no new GPU miners will join. next FPGA miners will stop. Also with a incredible difficulty the ROI of ASICs will shrink and people will not hurry into them.
Your first point is true, but by the time that it really affects GPU miners, I would think their departure would also not slow the rate of growth that much. The second point is very interesting, though. Will be curious to see how the realization of the new difficulty affects the currently-insane demand for ASICs. |
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FCTaiChi (OP)
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June 13, 2013, 11:48:05 PM |
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Yeah I'm watching that closely too. I'm hoping the tech curve will keep us busy and interested in mining, but growth is definitely not steady in the short term.
It's possible that there will be certain times where a new cheap tech comes out and everyone can mine, then other times we'll need more infrastructure that only comes with capitol.
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KS
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June 14, 2013, 09:34:28 AM |
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Wooot! Super nice looking table! (hadn't checked in a few days)  I think you should revise your timetable regarding the Avalon chips projects. November seems way, way too late. Samples have been received already so some batches are on track with the 4 week schedule samples, which means you should expect the first chips to be delivered in 6 weeks (end of July) and the following batches on a weekly schedule thereafter. Samples are already in EE's hands, so the design should be tested shortly (so you'll have better estimates for finished product ETA). |
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Vanderi
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June 14, 2013, 10:16:32 AM |
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Hey just dropping in to show my appreciation for the chart, thanks :thumbsup:
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FloridaBear
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June 14, 2013, 12:54:48 PM |
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I also want to applaud your efforts on this chart. Every bit of sanity that can be injected into the current gold rush is much needed. I'm trying to do my part as well with warnings about GPUs and overpriced ASIC miners. The chart really shows that there are precious few ASICs that even have a shot at positive ROI--and I just don't think that message has gotten out there.
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FCTaiChi (OP)
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June 14, 2013, 03:39:18 PM
Last edit: June 14, 2013, 05:48:59 PM by FCTaiChi |
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Ok guys I finally watched Yifu's Bitcoin 2013 talk. Took a while to get the time to spend half an hour picking something apart. I can see why people want me to change their data, he seems very credible.
However..
It's very strange he said sabotage, there is no incentive there. Anyway, six miners being damaged can't account for months of waiting. They say the chips are made, I still don't see why people don't have them.
Where are the hardball questions guys? When do you get a chance like this? Guess I'll have to go next time with my own question list. He didn't even talk about sending chips at the conference. It was mostly about the miners. I really don't feel like any of my previous questions were answered.
To me it's as simple as this: People bought chips from them, they are not sending them. They don't have good reasons for this. Until I find some I'm going to keep moving them back. I think that because he seems like such a nice guy it's hard to question him, but personally I need some clear answers.
Thanks for the kind messages!
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Dabs
Legendary
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Activity: 3416
Merit: 1912
The Concierge of Crypto
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June 14, 2013, 03:43:44 PM |
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Hi. I updated my Group Buy. Lower pricing. New escrow address.
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FCTaiChi (OP)
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June 15, 2013, 02:16:38 AM |
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Hi. I updated my Group Buy. Lower pricing. New escrow address.
Ok thanks! Bitcoin.ch added Haven't found anything to discredit them. |
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FloridaBear
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June 15, 2013, 05:32:41 AM |
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I have a suggestion: Would it be easier to read if you showed ROI as a percent of cost in BTC? There is a very wide range of cost and hash rates, so showing results in BTC is difficult to interpret (you'd have to divide by cost in BTC to get % ROI).
However, since there are only a handful that are in the green anyway, that may not be such a big deal.
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FCTaiChi (OP)
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June 15, 2013, 09:35:49 PM |
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Yeah I have thought of doing that, I think it's a great idea. I should copy it over and see what it looks like.. hopefully get a chance this week.
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FCTaiChi (OP)
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June 16, 2013, 03:44:59 PM |
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Tigggger
Legendary
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Activity: 1098
Merit: 1000
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June 16, 2013, 06:51:10 PM |
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The Noitev K1 is listed in the chart at 2BTC, according to the thread they will be around $100 for 1, cheaper for more.
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FCTaiChi (OP)
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June 17, 2013, 12:17:18 AM |
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The Noitev K1 is listed in the chart at 2BTC, according to the thread they will be around $100 for 1, cheaper for more.
Oh you're right thanks! Unfortunately I don't know what to think since they are all crossed out at this point. And those are prices without chips so I'm not sure what it would turn out to be. Looking at the thread it seems maybe he took a guess but it didn't turn out to be quite doable. I don't really know what to post at this point, so I'll have to keep it where it's at. I'll post in his thread asking for clarifications. |
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Noitev
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June 17, 2013, 06:06:43 AM |
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My prices are gonna be in the realm of 0.7 BTC
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andrewsg
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June 17, 2013, 09:56:18 AM |
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OP, it's a good initiative and useful comparison. I think it can be improved quite a lot - especially for newer users. If I can make some suggestions - clean up the text on the first post, and add more information - for example, explain all your assumptions, analysis and opinions. Claimed numbers by manufacturers are "objective" from an observer's point of view, your suspicions on scams, lead times, etc - not so much (not to say they add no value). Explain "Lead time" in your front page post - it has a tremendous impact on profitability numbers - as a matter of fact, we could say that the profitability numbers are heavily affected not by specs, prices and performance of devices, but by your interpretation of lead times. As it stands, those numbers are irrelevant for a buyer looking at buying from a secondary market (and jump preorder queues). This will only get more obvious once people start selling say K16's (in hand) - these could be profitable in hand, but not profitable if you add a 10-week lead time for a new chip order. Maybe add a column showing what the ROI would be "today"? Explain the ROI numbers "with avg. difficulty of" - or provide a link to good explanation / history of diff. As shown, the column label is technically not correct - average diff increase can't be used to calculate profitability reliably. (For example if over the next 3 months we have diff increases of 50% and then for the following 3 months we have increases of 10% the ROI numbers are completely different than if we had 3 months at 10% and then 3 months at 50%, even though your "average diff increase" would stay the same.) I suspect your ROI calculations are not at "average" 9%, etc, as claimed, but actually at constant 9%, etc. Make 1 paragraph for each manufacturer on the list, add the link to the relevant site / thread, use this space as well to explain your assumptions about that specific manufacturer / product. Consider adding a new column for "proof of working unit / demo" to weed out speculation from actual products. Add a bigger disclaimer for the people who are likely to treat this information as fact. Finally, on a personal note - this is of course your thread and you can speculate all you want - but excluding BFL is simply not fair or logical - yes they have horrendous customer service and terrible lead times (and I would not trust them with one satoshi) - but at the very least they have delivered some Jalapenos, and allegedly even a single! I'm not saying you should add a mini-rig to your list - but let's not forget that your list includes some manufacturers who have delivered NOTHING but promises so far. Makes no sense. |
Bitcoin can be bad for your chi. Improve yours and mine by sending BTC to: 1N1zRYSwKQbZ8Kx1bKvTskrjGMNynVFEr1
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dmcdad
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June 17, 2013, 12:55:28 PM |
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Based on recent posts, it looks like Terrahash is using Avalon chips, so it doesn't make sense to have their Lead Time be August and all the others be delayed to November. That said, I still don't understand why those are delayed all the way out to November. Based on the Sample Chips being shipped and recent communication from Avalon I don't think they'll be delayed by months.
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