Mining Equipment Manufacturers

[FCTaiChi]

I don't understand your Avalon entry. Avalon batch #1 finished shipping a while ago. Avalon batch #2 is currently being shipped. Avalon batch #3 will ship in a month or two.

Great to get this cleared up, thanks.  I know people have been asking for a while.

The assebly cost for the evilscoop stuff is for K16 board btw not a K64 board. (I looked it because the ROI seemed incredibly high).
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=203682.0;all

Thanks!  That did seem like a discrepency.

FCTaiChi   thanks for putting this information together

[FCTaiChi]

If you have other plans than what is going on in the main chart this could help.

This represents how much you will mine at 1GH in one year at different difficulties, and how this changes as we move through time.

With the difficulty being updated on the 25th the calculations changed a little, so I thought this may be worth going over.

[alibert]

On the other hand the BTC price might rise. Has anyone ever made a BTC Price to Difficulty analysis? It seems they are related

[ujka]

On the other hand the BTC price might rise. Has anyone ever made a BTC Price to Difficulty analysis? It seems they are related

http://www.bitcoinx.com/charts/
Difficulty follows BTC price (logaritmic scale, all data chart)?

[FCTaiChi]

They definitely are connected.  Price of BTC seems to have a lot more to do with difficulty than vice versa.  The higher it goes, more people mine. 
On the other side there may be a little correlation to having more miners, spreading the BTC around and having more stability.

Even if we have high difficulty and you're coming out with a negative ROI doesn't mean your machine won't pay for itself.  Just that it's possible that it may have been a better investment to buy BTC.

[ISAWHIM]

The only problem I have with this chart, is this assumes "no-one except you" has one at the time, and the market is "frozen", in VALUE and DIFFICULTY.

Try making that chart showing...
- Your percentage of "todays market", and estimated percentage after EVERYONE has one of these devices.

You see, the more that are sold, the less EVERYONE makes. We are just slicing up the same pie into smaller pieces. However, our "available" slices decay faster than expected because the "producing hardware persons", are making the majority of components for themselves. (Since it costs them less to make them, and we keep giving them our money to build themselves units for free.)

The price is not rising as fast as the losses, because a majority of the holders and "new producers", do not have those losses. (Though they are freely cashing-in on our losses.)

Even a modest projection of "the current trend", would be a better assimilation of "potential yield"... (But you have to forecast realistically, not with any "potential exponential estimation crap.")

Also take note to notice... "number of transactions"... the less transactions, the less work there is to process. Thus, more down-time for ASICs in the future, then GPUs. 100THs is 0THs if there is no "buying and selling" going on. 0-blocks per hour... (Funny, that will make the difficulty drop majorly... and one person who gets the first order will rake in the rewards! lol... 25 blocks solved in an hour to the first ASIC to load the work... 0 for the rest of the pie, as the difficulty instantly shoots back up into the billions.)

Look at BBQ, Terra, and Min coins to see what I am saying...
With all the GPU's mining that LOW difficulty, the apparent "daily mining value" jumps from $20 a month to mine, to $500 a month... Though, in reality, it is only about $21 a month. Only ONE miner got multiple blocks solved at once, the difficulty shot up, and then no-one found and for hours... Same will happen with ASICs.
http://dustcoin.com/mining

[FCTaiChi]

The only problem I have with this chart, is this assumes "no-one except you" has one at the time, and the market is "frozen", in VALUE and DIFFICULTY.

The columns to the far right represent different difficulties.  They are each what would happen at that average difficulty in the next year.

[Foofighter]

Thanks FCTaiChi for the nice work!

[GigaWave]

The only problem I have with this chart, is this assumes "no-one except you" has one at the time, and the market is "frozen", in VALUE and DIFFICULTY.

The columns to the far right represent different difficulties.  They are each what would happen at that average difficulty in the next year.

You should re-think this area as it is very confusing or at least give a better description. What does a 'negative' number mean. Also what exactly do those percentages represent, what hash rate?

Update the OP to, don't just reply here.

[dreamhouse]

if I read the table correctly, for all those shipping ones, nothing is profitable for a year!

[FCTaiChi]

You should re-think this area as it is very confusing or at least give a better description. What does a 'negative' number mean. Also what exactly do those percentages represent, what hash rate?

Update the OP to, don't just reply here.

I update the OP every day.
Can you think of a way to state it more clearly?  People don't seem to understand what ROI means, I tried to use that for a while.

Did you read above that section where it says, "BTC mined in one year minus power and cost"?
The section below says, "The columns to the right are an estimate of how many BTC you will mine in 1 year minus cost of machine and avg power costs."

I'm not sure what else to do here.

if I read the table correctly, for all those shipping ones, nothing is profitable for a year!

A wash at best it looks like.  *crosses fingers* for avalon chips

[Schrankwand]

If you have other plans than what is going on in the main chart this could help.

This represents how much you will mine at 1GH in one year at different difficulties, and how this changes as we move through time.

With the difficulty being updated on the 25th the calculations changed a little, so I thought this may be worth going over.

I want to say, I dont get it.

I have taken a look at the calcs and have still not gotten how you get to the numbers.

Do you mean an average increase of difficulty every 14 days with the %? Or per month? Per year?

[ujka]

Do you mean an average increase of difficulty every 14 days with the %? Or per month? Per year?

I think that those averages are for every 14 days. Or?

[FCTaiChi]

I want to say, I dont get it.

I have taken a look at the calcs and have still not gotten how you get to the numbers.

Do you mean an average increase of difficulty every 14 days with the %? Or per month? Per year?

Did you look at sheet #2 on the spreadsheet?  It would be very confusing if you don't see that there is more than one.
Difficulty has been increasing about once every 12.1 days lately.  The percentage is gotten from taking a whole year of those and averaging them.  So each column represents a different average difficulty.

If anyone can think of a way to make this easily readable I'd be grateful.  I'm starting to think, though, that it's just a complex set of data that takes some time to understand, for the uninitiated.

[docjunior]

How about labelling it "projected average 12 day diff increase" (Or "avg 12d diff. inc.") which seems to be how you describe the underlying data?

[ujka]

Difficulty changes every 2016 blocks. How many days it is depends on the total network growth.

Another thing, if we take 13% diff increase (every 2016 blocks), that gives around 2000 2600 Thash total network speed in a year (using future value formula in gnumerics fv(13%,26,0, -110)). Who will contribute that growth? BFL

[FCTaiChi]

Difficulty changes every 2016 blocks. How many days it is depends on the total network growth.

Another thing, if we take 13% diff increase (every 2016 blocks), that gives around 2000 2600 Thash total network speed in a year (using future value formula in gnumerics fv(13%,26,0, -110)). Who will contribute that growth? BFL

Really?  The projection I'm using shows difficulty 13% at:
537,192,522
around June 6 next year.

Same time period with 18% difficulty gives:
2.06E+09
2,056,082,027.04


I'm not saying you're wrong, just would like to know where the disconnect is.

[klintay]

nice work btw, FCTaiChi 

[Bitcoinorama]

nice work btw, FCTaiChi 

Indeed and I agree with your Bitfury stance in the other thread

[ujka]

I'm not saying you're wrong, just would like to know where the disconnect is.

We can be both right.
Just that you're calculating difficulty increase, and I total network speed. It's easier for me to think that way.