Satoshi Buckets - A game with a winning strategy! 1 BTC GIVEAWAY, 0.3 BTC LEFT.

[thisisgil]

Thanks for the clarification, bitshy!

There are three reasons why you might still want to play in red in this situation:

- You might expect green or blue to get higher by the time red meets the threshold.
- You might be feeling lucky.
- There is a massive giveaway going on that means that playing in red is still a net positive even if it is originally a net negative. (Hey! That sounds familiar!)50%

If we discount 3 as it's only a temporary thing, I'm not sure that someone trying to develop a strategy would rely on luck, which means we can rule out 2. Therefore, we're left with 1: "You might expect green or blue to get higher...." and I honestly don't think that's enough of an incentive to drop into red. Perhaps consider throwing a lifeline into play? Something like if you go in on red and the total of the red bucket is 33% or greater of the three buckets, then you have a 1 in 10 chance to get thrown a lifeline - ie your money stays in red bucket (minus your 1% bitshy rake of course). This gives the player an incentive to back the red bucket AND lures players away from green and blue because there's a 1 in 5 chance they won't get the winnings from red falling. I dunno. Maybe that's overcomplicating it and stupid.

5% Trans Fee (Est.)

Right now the estimated transaction fee is actually 0.4%, often less.

Yup - I was just throwing a number out there for the sake of illustration - didn't have the inclination to figure out the exact %!

Sorry, this is an error with my description of the game! The reward is proportional to the amount of money you put in! Otherwise there really would be no incentive to bet more than 0.005.

I updated the description on the site.

Good stuff!

[JKWong]

Really nice gambling idea. I bet its and old game you didnt invent. Or am i mistaken ?

[dhenson]

I took some pity on you guys waiting and tossed some btc in red.

Here we go!

[dhenson]

haha I guess benevolence pays... my red bet has paid off 4 times so far and is still going strong!

[bitshy]

Coming up: fourth giveaway results. But first, an announcement.

ANN: The bucket minimum per round has been increased to 0.05 BTC.

This will result in smaller transaction fees, and more fluidity (since the minimum bet is now one tenth of the round minimum). This change was instituted at a time when the red bucket had 0 BTC and the green and blue buckets had 0.05 BTC, so nobody was negatively affected. (The expected value of the red bucket went down, but nobody was betting there. The expected values of the green and blue buckets went up.)

FOURTH GIVEAWAY RESULTS

This time, we considered transactions from 14th to the 18th, since there was an interruption of service. There were 33 transactions considered. The last block hash was , so the 22nd transaction was picked, and the 3rd entry from that transaction is the winner.

So ...

CONGRATULATIONS 14dD2jzPSpY4kzVacPbVThk187MCupwLCu, YOU WIN 0.1 BTC!

DETAILS:

Last Block Hash:

00000000000000866d28d8a40cb8744b494ee965ac4020bb89deafb6c24ff60a

Transactions considered (33):
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Winner:

22nd transaction = b5a030046eb149618d32caef23a84abda43798b3d153e0f55f66ee14ff44d5d1
3rd entry = 14dD2jzPSpY4kzVacPbVThk187MCupwLCu

Giveaway transaction:

https://blockchain.info/tx/8efe88a4d73b0045863190574b72d04dc52778f2568b660d536b98306156abc1

[bitshy]

Really nice gambling idea. I bet its and old game you didnt invent. Or am i mistaken ?

I don't know. I came up with the idea, but maybe it already exists going way back? Or maybe only with the invention of Bitcoin is such a betting game feasible.

[thisisgil]

Seems to me that the 0.05 minimum has slowed up the game somewhat.....

[thisisgil]

Every bucket value currently shows "NAN"

Is the site down again?

[dhenson]

For all you red bucket haters out there, just sharing that I had an 8 drop win streak night before last.

[bitshy]

Every bucket value currently shows "NAN"

Is the site down again?

bitcoind crashed. It's up again, now. Let it be said ... bitcoind is not the most stable software.

As for the effect of the 0.05 BTC buckets... let's try it out for a while longer. If it turns out to have been a bad idea, I'll revert it. But in the meantime, let's try it out.

Giveaway results coming right up.

[bitshy]

GIVEAWAY DAY #5:

This time there were 19 transactions considered. This is less than the previous days. This is a result of the downtimes, the middle of the week, and the new bucket round minimum. But this sort of means that everyone who participated had a better chance of winning!

CONGRATULATIONS 1Gk6r3HUmmCiz6Ak9NyMaDpHTwv711Cm7a, YOU WIN 0.1 BTC!

DETAILS:

Last block hash:

0000000000000035d24ae60516a0e661c75bf016c66da9871edb4d3f12c0e067

Transactions (19):
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Winner:

Selected 14th transaction : 48613e55b3376dd8707898981c150afa7ee52e07d3e52c3928ebc7be719754ea
Selected  3rd address     : 1Gk6r3HUmmCiz6Ak9NyMaDpHTwv711Cm7a

[bitshy]

GIVEAWAY RESULTS, DAY 6

Yesterday there were 25 transactions. Things are picking up steam after the events of last weekend (hardware malfunction). Only four more giveaway days left!  CONGRATULATIONS 1FsKuysFywCnQkN6JSNQ4k4QSsJjomR1gn, YOU WIN 0.1 BTC!

DETAILS:

Last Block Hash:

00000000000000c44d81067142d9d12d0fd631d97cb6e911281c0b4acc9c600b

Transactions (25):
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Winner:

Selected 5th transaction.
Selected 11th entry: 1FsKuysFywCnQkN6JSNQ4k4QSsJjomR1gn.

Giveaway transaction:

835c0ff14ef822cd596e801b6bd229fa13abd8dda5265b95ba5a47f1c0f842c1

[bitshy]

Thisisgil, I'm trying something a little bit different. This time, the buckets all have different thresholds: red has BTC0.04, green has BTC0.05, and blue has BTC0.065. This should balance the game -- there shouldn't be long periods with red at BTC0, because the expected minimum value for each bucket is very close.

That is, 42% of 0.04 is very close to 33% of 0.05, which is very close to 25% of 0.065.

To make the numbers nice and round, I would prefer to set the thresholds at: red = 0.05, green = 0.06, blue = 0.08. This would be a nice simplification to make. But let it be as it is for now. We'll see how this goes.

Folks, let me know what you think. Thanks for playing!

[bitshy]

I think that the previous change was unsuccessful, so I reverted it. It changed the flavor of the game too much, and made the rules more complicated. So now we're back at 0.05 BTC rounds.

Also, real life has kept me _way_ too busy, and it doesn't seem like it's going to stop very soon. I did not post giveaway results yesterday. Yesterday (after the change) there were only five rounds. So I will hold off on the giveaway another day.

[bitshy]

Ah! There was a brief moment where I messed up the reversion to 0.05 BTC. Rounds weren't triggering. It should be working fine now, however. Bucket away!

[counter]

Just wanted to say that this is a fun game and I enjoyed it last time I played.  I want to limit the amount of gambling right now but I do look forward to playing in the future.   
 

[bitshy]

GIVEAWAY RESULTS #7!

Due to a lower transaction volume, I clumped together the last two days with giveaway day #7. This gives 28 transactions, which is around the same volume as the previous giveaways -- so I don't think anyone has really been hurt. This means that the giveaway can last a bit longer, too.

So, having said that....

CONGRATULATIONS 1H7E7YqMoWQZsUCumbvyASYJzpnz3dudaB, YOU WIN 0.1 BTC!

DETAILS:

Last Block Hash:

0000000000000026da486bc61d536319c050ddd13261f66c276a16891b31a0dd

Transactions (28):

43956acd20ae8c554867da3498dd13355c5f2c9348a4abea190b3234d19f5112
4762ba8c0d2ae369df6a61c9d36972defd957ecc5a1903f13d06aa230032b22d
06f3273cecdd7ede82076f66da2457dce3490f7ba8c50f5ca65eae1c328a5cba
88d9c9ae91caa68c8eab72eea165e4d61162a3aaf6b35482413414822c42a391
2b35e5ba47d4f32f36a5a535af9b7716e1b643ad6d7fac755d20d2c3c34237b3
fc58900feb9a577e5a082128cae9b4030976da8625f26de027ae00979c7781ab
69e089efaff9f9ec0128e32c88f536ec67e903f8b0c3f0bb26cabc154e552980
d698b3b71c2137a634447d76def9342cc8a3ec7f9dcfbf27868a8a63fb861270
5ef3c1208925ca0ad81eacaca48ee798f0a3f3cded0c18e006a53d883ce64cfd
56edfeb65aa201c5629871f8b974f355ccfe3db2b52595ec6c079a796a376877
f3e2aa5d8cba4729b85fc7fed99d50d64967abbdf5e3f015db055cb89ca8a1f0
f4e27187ea5df3fda6407bffaa595500a1fb4de03fb1cf33836a1df590653c52
30e7cf90a9d52893885a670dca7e221a4c92e45c66cb036d933d0507acffd1c5
d37021ef8c320b5648fad343e7acf9579d382a054aa0045d133af26efc2fb925
e26b908bf3cfeb41307fa2c953c0de60e4b9a7810a774202c2658c19a58a5737
381a040cc842c84dd066a6cc78fb2d3e45d52d5811a1cdee95a6b1ddf082e6a8
1e284a64112a959ece2205f464a6326412ae742ef2bc06fc0e81dd4e37ca4a24
bffeebbd13b8beab216f075cc857eb0ba5a369943f1d4fd543a5b7c54adcff08
dbe7d33833161ceaebcfd230124797bef27dcc6c061042303a6b0d2475299329
20a33f1060bc11b6546bb108041f66bf40a79c64ab4081f4046736b8a96ea8fb
a877b79dc38055d2abadbdcedcdb32f6e048277445dba891ce59a018b3c5e214
02a746e046d18ee962a788765a15ccc5b18def1051da849c0a734fc9f4b2f5f2
71ff47e7beaa7e2002dcfef3dd540ba4c1288d93a1808067192f50089f9409c1
8c17fa8abc436305b4d12bc3cc14dde006e61ae58beb4071c177027cbc9e3990
f3e31598e31f91e58fc61ea024a2bfe5cb6a0c527c0a078b0b7964e9525cbd5e
907ffd93656f85b5ee41949918e3a1a1064fcb0dafccf01b9d4819a1d53976ba
e5222984e25f4b7b6fafa51025fea05449ef881035bb57237a9e12aad5afb69b
244d858d2e18e570971be5929d380e5e93a91a1cec41505c6fc6fec3f73250a6
0296d325c2fd0a02e03cf425027085b13209c8e5ebc95ed79941d93042c4bfc0

Winner:

Selected 6th transaction.
Selected 4th entry.
Winner address is 1H7E7YqMoWQZsUCumbvyASYJzpnz3dudaB.

Giveaway transaction:

70a5ebdd5fbd29baacbf58a7ef6442515117c244e17aa5cfa1d86e81f5f2bd4d

[i3lome]

Wooo, I won. I love this game so most will go back in the bucket

[i3lome]

Is buckets down for good, Ive been waiting for it to come back up.

[darkmule]

Satoshi Buckets.  Satoshi Buckets.

Did anyone even try saying that name out loud before naming a game that?  Good Christ.