Be careful. (Newbies and others ...)

[ragnar0k]

1- ETF: if it gets approved we might easily go to 10k

Most likely already priced in, unfortunately, so might not help us short term. In the long term however, very bullish of course.

Yes, but there is a big reputation gain if and when it will get approved. Maybe you are right, it will improve over time

The infrastructure has come a looong way since 2013, that is very true. However definitely not the only reason for the crashes of days of yore.

Don't forget localization. in 2013 if my memory serves me right was almost non existent (english or die)

Regarding market cap Bitcoin is already in the ball park of S&P 500 companies. Unless you mean the whole market of course

I am thinking in terms of .com bubble. During that time there were some pretty crappy companies that had much less usage and utility than bitcoin with billions of market cap. Not comparable to our crypto space, where just a handful pass the billion. And regarding the growth, don't forget BC never had an 'IPO' or an analyst that said... this should start from 5000$. It started from 0...With 0 investments.

For the rest I guess mine are only opinions to balance the overly pessimistic view of the OP (which might well happen). But when I hear that bitcoin will go down to 200$ I can't but think that there is a bit of schadenfreude (again to use the op language) because noobs (including me as I never really invested in bc before) did not pass those painful 3 years.

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[joseafonso123az]

After reading a lot of perma-bullish postings in this speculation forum, I only want to issue a little warning. Not as a professional trader, but a guy that has been here since 2013.

Be careful! I think we are near the top of a bubble. Don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.

That is valid for Bitcoin and most altcoins at the same time. I think we have overheated - mostly due to the speculation on the Segwit activation - and now we must go down a bit. Probably the rest of the year will be bearish or a sideways market.

What doesn't that "warning" mean?
- It doesn't mean that Bitcoin will go instantly to zero. My prediction is that it will go to $3000, until late October but then, depending on the news, we can go lower (in a worst case scenario, to about $1000).
- It doesn't even mean that $4970 was the top (although I consider it likely). There could be another bullish "leg". But it will most likely be the last one of the year, and I don't think it will reach $10.000.
- It does not mean that "Bitcoin is a bubble". Bitcoin is useful and a great project. But it cannot increase permanently in price. Sometimes there is profit taking, or also a little bit of panic.

Why do I think that the "bubble" ended?
- Bitcoin's price has increased about 30 times in this bullish cycle which started in late 2014 at $135. That is HUGE.
- Adoption by retailers and other real world shops has not increased according to the price increase (in fact, I think we're at the same level than in 2013/14).
- China has strongly restricted ICOs a few days ago. That will lower the demand a bit, although it's not catastrophic, maybe.
- In November, there could be a dangerous hard fork, separating the main development team (Bitcoin Core) from a large part of the Bitcoin economy (miners, Bitpay, Coinbase) on different chains.

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

Well your bearish mood might have some logic, but as it is a bubble everything we say is only a prediction that my or may not happen.
News, illegal activities, banning affects the value of bitcoin, and almost always decreases it's value. But sometimes, this decrease in value happens because of the market correction. I guess until the hard fork bitcoin might stay between $3000- $5000 and after that, depending on what the results will be of the hard fork, there will be some, and maybe drastic change in the value of bitcoin.

[Oceat]

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

So say it that way.

Dont invest what you will need next year. Invest what you will need in 5-10 years.  It is so simple. 

And word investing dont mean playing with your money and selling and buying. No. It is just buy and keep it safe. Nothing else. Perfect for lazy people like me.

"Perfect for lazy people like me." So am i too? lol

Investing in a long term will keep your money safe, in fact you won't have to worry because you were just hiding your money. All you need to do is just keep your pace and watch until the price go doubled then sell.

[CrownPolly]

- Bitcoin's price has increased about 30 times in this bullish cycle which started in late 2014 at $135. That is HUGE.

- China has strongly restricted ICOs a few days ago. That will lower the demand a bit, although it's not catastrophic, maybe.
- In November, there could be a dangerous hard fork, separating the main development team (Bitcoin Core) from a large part of the Bitcoin economy (miners, Bitpay, Coinbase) on different chains.

The increase in value is 30 times - this is a fantastic phenomenon for the currency of the currency, but not for the crypto currency. Bitcoin has more than once proved the fact that he is developing not like Fiat.

And its development is due to ubiquitous legalization. This was the reason for the price increase.

And I agree with you that the price may decrease because of the next plug we are waiting for in November. But I do not think that it will be significantly

[1Referee]

People won't like what you have to say here.
You'll be shunned and ridiculed.
.

People don't like what YOU have to say, so don't try to put a contributing member into the same category as yourself. I quite enjoy reading what d5000 has to say, because after all, it makes sense most of the times. Everyone has his own view on this market, and thus far there haven't been many people in this forum actually pointing out their thoughts in detail. People here have been spoiled with insane increases, and this is obviously a great thing for those having invested early enough, but it can't endlessly keep increasing without falling back heavily at some point. I personally don't really like using the term bearish, which is why I stick to using the term conservative, this till we know how things will play out in November.

[Duzter]

People need to be confident, but should not be over confidence. This will be serving as an issue not only with bitcoin, but the same thinking prevails throughout. So as mentioned invest what you can afford is the right pick than just on over expectations as well over confidence of trying to express themselves high.

[HeRetiK]

1- ETF: if it gets approved we might easily go to 10k

Most likely already priced in, unfortunately, so might not help us short term. In the long term however, very bullish of course.

Yes, but there is a big reputation gain if and when it will get approved. Maybe you are right, it will improve over time

The infrastructure has come a looong way since 2013, that is very true. However definitely not the only reason for the crashes of days of yore.

Don't forget localization. in 2013 if my memory serves me right was almost non existent (english or die)

Regarding market cap Bitcoin is already in the ball park of S&P 500 companies. Unless you mean the whole market of course

I am thinking in terms of .com bubble. During that time there were some pretty crappy companies that had much less usage and utility than bitcoin with billions of market cap. Not comparable to our crypto space, where just a handful pass the billion. And regarding the growth, don't forget BC never had an 'IPO' or an analyst that said... this should start from 5000$. It started from 0...With 0 investments.

Good points. Keep in mind that crypto has its own little dot-com bubble of crappy companies right now (*cough* ICOs *cough*). I'm positive that the long-term effect on Bitcoin itself will be limited though.

For the rest I guess mine are only opinions to balance the overly pessimistic view of the OP (which might well happen). But when I hear that bitcoin will go down to 200$ I can't but think that there is a bit of schadenfreude (again to use the op language) because noobs (including me as I never really invested in bc before) did not pass those painful 3 years.

I think it's less about Schadenfreude and more about preparing newcomers for the worst. Making sure that people don't overreach in their investments and keep a level head. It's all fun and games until the bear market strikes and I don't think many of the new community members are fully aware of what they are potentially getting into. Seeing how some people get skittish when Bitcoin makes as much as a sneeze a reminder like OP's seems well placed.

A stable market needs strong hands and clear heads, everyone loses once things get emotional.

[d5000]

Wow, so much approval of my post, didn't think that

I want to add something about some comments talking about "legalization" of Bitcoin in some countries.

The prime case is Japan. One could expect a booming cryptocurrency real-world market in Japan with a lot of growth of Bitcoin full nodes, with new businesses and services.

But only 60 new full nodes have popped up in the last 9 months or so (I checked it back in January or February, and then there were about 80 nodes in that country). Japan has now 141 Bitcoin full nodes (Source). That's essentially nothing. A small rural village, or five high school classes. Yes, full nodes are not equal to users, but business users should really run a full node.

In my opinion there were the following reasons for the growth in the past year:
- first, Bitcoin was a bit undervalued, at least until early 2016, and so slowly began to grow as confidence rose
- then, the "halving bubble" brought optimism again into the market
- then we had the "ETF bull run", the ETF's failed, but the optimism still was there.
- the ICO bull run (caused by altcoins) in early-to-mid 2017 explains part of the current growth already
- and finally, in August, the "Segwit bull run".

None of these are events are really related to real-world adoption of Bitcoin as a currency. Legalization news are, at least a little bit, as they trigger hope and create opportunities. Bitcoin may slowly grow because of legalization in some countries, but in others (China and Russia, basically) it can lose traction because of stricter regulations.

[fabiorem]

When do you expect the price of 10k will be reached?

[energycom]

You create inconsistency here, I read all of your post. You said you're bullish in long term, and you claim a big drop for bitcoin, even down to $1000. How come then?

I mean how long bitcoin would stay low in case of your scneario is successful?

[ragnar0k]

Good points. Keep in mind that crypto has its own little dot-com bubble of crappy companies right now (*cough* ICOs *cough*). I'm positive that the long-term effect on Bitcoin itself will be limited though.

Hard to argue with that... I was just scammed by one. But maybe china is fixing it (assuming they don't kill freedom and rules are more towards reducing scams), then ICOs might become really something!

I think it's less about Schadenfreude and more about preparing newcomers for the worst. Making sure that people don't overreach in their investments and keep a level head. It's all fun and games until the bear market strikes and I don't think many of the new community members are fully aware of what they are potentially getting into. Seeing how some people get skittish when Bitcoin makes as much as a sneeze a reminder like OP's seems well placed.

A stable market needs strong hands and clear heads, everyone loses once things get emotional.

Indeed. As a noob I agree there is also too much talk about a 5% correction and too little about what can be done to expand bitcoin usage!

The prime case is Japan. One could expect a booming cryptocurrency real-world market in Japan with a lot of growth of Bitcoin full nodes, with new businesses and services.

But only 60 new full nodes have popped up in the last 9 months or so (I checked it back in January or February, and then there were about 80 nodes in that country). Japan has now 141 Bitcoin full nodes (Source). That's essentially nothing. A small rural village, or five high school classes. Yes, full nodes are not equal to users, but business users should really run a full node.

What I read from what you say is that there was a >70% increase in less than a year... Japan has passed the law only in April if I am not wrong...
Then again I think nodes are more about communities, maybe universities. I don't think a business knows what a node is used for... Seems like there is more awareness in Germany and US compared to the rest of the world (and surprisingly UK is way down the list...)

In my opinion there were the following reasons for the growth in the past year:
- first, Bitcoin was a bit undervalued, at least until early 2016, and so slowly began to grow as confidence rose
- then, the "halving bubble" brought optimism again into the market
- then we had the "ETF bull run", the ETF's failed, but the optimism still was there.
- the ICO bull run (caused by altcoins) in early-to-mid 2017 explains part of the current growth already
- and finally, in August, the "Segwit bull run".

Agree here. But then there is a chance that BC is about to go mainstream. I just read that it is likely that US is detaxing BC transactions up to 600$, if that happens that is a big opening the US government is giving to bitcoin. After all, you probably have more bitcoins than I do, so it is good to also hope a bit

[d5000]

What I read from what you say is that there was a >70% increase in less than a year... Japan has passed the law only in April if I am not wrong...

Yes, 70% looks much, but in absolute numbers it's a very small number actually. It's nothing that can justify a 300% price increase. The "boom" in Japan happened mostly at the exchanges like bitFlyer, but that is not sustainable Bitcoin real-world usage but speculation.

Then again I think nodes are more about communities, maybe universities. I don't think a business knows what a node is used for...

Well, then we have to educate them, because light nodes have some vulnerabilities and could, in theory, be "scammed" if their owners don't use some security measures (like checking they're on the right chain). Obviously if you sell low-priced items that's a risk you could take.

But then there is a chance that BC is about to go mainstream.

Mmh ... where do you see that? In media and real life I had this feeling in 2013 when there were a lot more people interested in Bitcoin than now, I think. The "buzz" was much stronger then. There were lots of shops starting to accept Bitcoin this year, and 2014. Most have ceased to do so, some new ones have appeared, but growth seems slow. It's not that I don't see some growth - mainly in "non-traditional" countries. But again, nothing that justifies a 300% increase in half a year.

I just read that it is likely that US is detaxing BC transactions up to 600$, if that happens that is a big opening the US government is giving to bitcoin.

Just curiosity: What would this "detaxing" mean in this context? Do the US have a tax for simple monetary transactions, or would this mean people would not have to pay VAT if they pay with BTC?

After all, you probably have more bitcoins than I do, so it is good to also hope a bit

Unfortunately, I'm 99% sure that you are wrong.

[janedt]

Well said, but i'm not sure about all 100% that you wrote. I mean, yes bitcoin might be near the top of a bubble but do you see 3 days ago when the price fall because of the news from china ? It was dropped but the price coming back to $4,500+. I don't know when the bubble will popped, but just be ready for it.

[cpfreeplz]

Bitcoins aren't a hyped up stock. They aren't just people trying to profit. If you actually believe in the technology you'll never sell and only keep buying. It's worth so much more than $5000 each and if you don't understand why then you don't understand how your local money supply works.

[pooya87]

But only 60 new full nodes have popped up in the last 9 months or so (I checked it back in January or February, and then there were about 80 nodes in that country). Japan has now 141 Bitcoin full nodes (Source). That's essentially nothing. A small rural village, or five high school classes. Yes, full nodes are not equal to users, but business users should really run a full node.

number of full nodes, specially a number that particular site shows is not at all an indication of adoption, or number of businesses.
because first of all that number is reachable nodes whereas a lot more nodes exist but they don't accept incoming connections and sites like above will never list them.
secondly is that businesses don't have to run a full node to accept bitcoin! it can be various ways, even a daemon using Electrum (an SPV wallet) can be used to receive payments.


p.s. i will never call bitcoin a bubble, near bubble top,... i would be disappointed if i do.

[d5000]

number of full nodes, specially a number that particular site shows is not at all an indication of adoption, or number of businesses.

In my opinion, it is an indicator. It is not the one and only indicator. For a better picture of Japanese reality one would have to perform an investigation on Bitcoin acceptance by shops. For me, the language barrier unfortunately is too high to do that.

The countries I best know regarding adoption are Germany and Argentina. In Germany (#2 on the node ranking) there is a small adoption, also by some online services like Lieferando, but that has practically not changed much since 2013/14. In Argentina there was a little boom in 2013/14, mostly due to Bitcoin being then a relatively easy and cheap way to access foreign currency (from 2012 to 2014 foreign currency buys were extremely restricted, and until late 2015 there remained weaker restrictions). There continue to be services but very probably not more than in 2014.

There were other countries with more growth, but on a low level, and it's not justifying a 30x increase in price.

because first of all that number is reachable nodes whereas a lot more nodes exist but they don't accept incoming connections and sites like above will never list them.

That has low incidence on that stat, I think.

secondly is that businesses don't have to run a full node to accept bitcoin! it can be various ways, even a daemon using Electrum (an SPV wallet) can be used to receive payments.

You should only accept payments of low importance with a SPV wallet. Only a full node gives you the opportunity to not being scammed. Most small businesses, in fact, are using Electrum or even centralized providers. So a small number of full nodes should be an indication that there are only small businesses using Bitcoin, or that they are using services like BitPay.

p.s. i will never call bitcoin a bubble, near bubble top,... i would be disappointed if i do.

I have also not called "bitcoin" "a bubble", but many assets sometimes overheat, and I think with Bitcoin it's the case now, as it was 2011 and 2013.

My goal with this thread is also not to spread negativity. But there are many newbies that are thinking that they still can be rich with Bitcoin if they invest their savings. I think that's not the case and so I issued this "warning", to avoid to many people being burnt. Maybe I'm wrong and we go straight up to $50.000 but I think it's very unlikely.

[dothebeats]

I myself hate to admit it, but bitcoin being in a bubble could still be a fact after all these months. Just like what you mentioned, there are still few merchants that thoroughly accepts bitcoin as a payment method even though the price surged drastically. It's a scary assumptions, but things around bitcoin (economy, merchants, nodes etc.) suggest that this certain price range wouldn't hold and it's caused by artificial price manipulations--just like 2013.

[Asrael999]

We may we'll be in a bubble, the bubble may well pop and the price fall to the last bubble top $1100 ish. But then there will be another bubble with a 20-30x rise from 1100 base to 20-30K and you will still quadruple your money from now in the next 4-5yrs. HODL what you have, don't get left out if the bubble doesn't pop and the price keeps rising.

[WatchMaker]

Bitcoin value doubled twice this year a long. Now that everybody put the money in bitcoin soon they'll be dumping their coins profits I think.

[ragnar0k]

Just curiosity: What would this "detaxing" mean in this context? Do the US have a tax for simple monetary transactions, or would this mean people would not have to pay VAT if they pay with BTC?

My understanding is that you can spend your bitcoin without thinking about taxation on your side up to 600$ per transaction.
Here is an article of our beloved fortune http://fortune.com/2017/09/07/cryptocurrency-bitcoin-tax

In any case, you made me worried now and I set up a stop loss bot. Let's hope I won't have to use it
I still think that regardless of adoption, bc can be an alternative for gold. Certainly nobody would want to spend any bitcoin around as long as they raise at a rate of 2000% yearly!