Be careful. (Newbies and others ...)

[YuginKadoya]

I think with this post I will start assessing if how long I can hold my bitcoin savings since there's a lots of possibilities that this statement will happen anytime soon
and with the current earnings that I've got maybe its better to exchange the half of it into fiat for some assurance then the other half can be stored inside my btc
wallet for long term hold.

Yup! I think about doing the same thing if this coming Hard Fork will be inevitable and if bitcoin would surely split again it could be terrible indeed, risky in terms the impending Fork can be worst, but I think I will keep my half of my coins to bitcoin and left it stay in a safe cold storage, but right now a speculation can still stay as an speculation and we can really never know what can happen in November.

[1715142790]

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[1715142790]

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[1715142790]

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[1715142790]

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[ragnar0k]

d5000
I do not know if this is a dip or not
But you just saved me loads of money.

XD

[jekjekman]

I really don't know what to say but I am not against to what you have said and pointing out as it has a logical way of thinking and explanations but Bitcoin is different to any kind of Fiat currency especially the market of it as it is traded worldwide and many people really believe in it.

I don't see the day that Bitcoin will go back to $1,000 price because it literally symbolizes a bubble even though it is not. Everything can happen though but no one can really tell what will.

[Lubang Bawah]

I think this conditions are now different, the current user is increasing and not dominated by some people or groups. bitcoin will continue to skyrocket though sometimes down and I'm sure the price will not happen $ 3000.

[eaLiTy]

I think this conditions are now different, the current user is increasing and not dominated by some people or groups. bitcoin will continue to skyrocket though sometimes down and I'm sure the price will not happen $ 3000.

Anything can happen in this market,you cannot say for certain that the price wont go back to $3000,there is a point OP made,yes we made a huge jump in price in the past few months and the rally was amazing and the flip side is that the market could go down as fast too,so be careful with your investment and in the long run it is true that the price of bitcoin will skyrocket but not at a faster pace.

[aardvark15]

After reading a lot of perma-bullish postings in this speculation forum, I only want to issue a little warning. Not as a professional trader, but a guy that has been here since 2013.

Be careful! I think we are near the top of a bubble. Don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.

That is valid for Bitcoin and most altcoins at the same time. I think we have overheated - mostly due to the speculation on the Segwit activation - and now we must go down a bit. Probably the rest of the year will be bearish or a sideways market.

What doesn't that "warning" mean?
- It doesn't mean that Bitcoin will go instantly to zero. My prediction is that it will go to $3000, until late October but then, depending on the news, we can go lower (in a worst case scenario, to about $1000).
- It doesn't even mean that $4970 was the top (although I consider it likely). There could be another bullish "leg". But it will most likely be the last one of the year, and I don't think it will reach $10.000.
- It does not mean that "Bitcoin is a bubble". Bitcoin is useful and a great project. But it cannot increase permanently in price. Sometimes there is profit taking, or also a little bit of panic.

Why do I think that the "bubble" ended?
- Bitcoin's price has increased about 30 times in this bullish cycle which started in late 2014 at $135. That is HUGE.
- Adoption by retailers and other real world shops has not increased according to the price increase (in fact, I think we're at the same level than in 2013/14).
- China has strongly restricted ICOs a few days ago. That will lower the demand a bit, although it's not catastrophic, maybe.
- In November, there could be a dangerous hard fork, separating the main development team (Bitcoin Core) from a large part of the Bitcoin economy (miners, Bitpay, Coinbase) on different chains.

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

I also think this could be a bubble because the price seemed to rise too far too fast. It's had huge gains this year and the price has to drop sometime. There will be some kind of correction to bring the price down to around $3000 or so. It could even go lower than that but possibly not. I've seen enough fluctuation in Bitcoin price to expect it to happen eventually. I am surprised it hasn't happened already.

[fearcoka]

I think this conditions are now different, the current user is increasing and not dominated by some people or groups. bitcoin will continue to skyrocket though sometimes down and I'm sure the price will not happen $ 3000.

Anything can happen in this market,you cannot say for certain that the price wont go back to $3000,there is a point OP made,yes we made a huge jump in price in the past few months and the rally was amazing and the flip side is that the market could go down as fast too,so be careful with your investment and in the long run it is true that the price of bitcoin will skyrocket but not at a faster pace.

I think if Bitcoin can keep its bullish trend in long term like 5-10 years or like Gold from 2010 till today, it still good. You and me also know an asset grow fast always have risk breakdown anytime and we will lose our money if it becomes the truth.

[omonuyak]

I disagree with your view of $4950 likely be the end of a bubble. In My view bitcoin is not yet even in the  bubble as we are still at the infancy stage of bitcoin and blockchain technology development. I do expect bitcoin to remain above $4000 for the remaining part of this year and I don't think we have any significant reason why bitcoin should go bearish except the games of media we are seeing playing from China to outrightly control bitcoin prices.

[jokowi]

I think this conditions are now different, the current user is increasing and not dominated by some people or groups. bitcoin will continue to skyrocket though sometimes down and I'm sure the price will not happen $ 3000.

No, it is unreasonable to say that bitcoin will go down to $ 3k, bitcoin is a popular currency, with market demand, it will not go down too much, it may even go up soon.

[p0peji]

Just wait until a good sell signal on the 2h or 4h and short the crap out of this thing, thank me later. Will probably be around 4450-4550.

[btcney]

We are definitely in a bubble and there is no doubt about it.

However i don't think that we are at the top yet, especially if the China news that everyone has been talking about turns out to be false. If it was confirmed to be fake news by the Chinese press then it is extremely likely we will see price go back to close to $5000 or even beyond that.

But great warning, people are acting really irrationally recently. The bubble will eventually pop and we could see $2000-3000 levels again, but i'm just not sure if it's going to be this year or the next.

[802529er]

If the price drops to as low as your saying, would you be picking up as much cheap af bitcoin that you can in the hopes that it’ll go back up!

[Kyraishi]

If the price drops to as low as your saying, would you be picking up as much cheap af bitcoin that you can in the hopes that it’ll go back up!

If you are referring to OP's predictions then no, i wouldn't consider buying at $3000 or at least put all of my funds into buying at a $3000 level. If it does go down to $3000 in the first place then i think the trend will continue down to at least $2500, or even $2000.

Just like OP i am bullish in the long term with bitcoin.

Therefore, i think the logical thing to do is to keep buying bitcoin in small increments, regardless of price. That way you are not affected by buying too high, as you have a chance to lower the cost average.

[Denker]

I disagree with your view of $4950 likely be the end of a bubble. In My view bitcoin is not yet even in the  bubble as we are still at the infancy stage of bitcoin and blockchain technology development. I do expect bitcoin to remain above $4000 for the remaining part of this year and I don't think we have any significant reason why bitcoin should go bearish except the games of media we are seeing playing from China to outrightly control bitcoin prices.

I agree with that. We've seen a great run this year but when I look at the weekly chart, zoom out in log scale, we're still far away from being in a bubble. Furthermore I don't understand why people still look at linear chart for a long term view. This is dumb!!
We may take break and consolidate here for a while, maybe dip down to 3500 or so for a short while, but I'm sure the bull run isn't over yet.
Right now there seems to be strong support around 4000. If it holds or we really get the chance to buy more coins below 3800-3900 needs to be seen.

[timerland]

I disagree with your view of $4950 likely be the end of a bubble. In My view bitcoin is not yet even in the  bubble as we are still at the infancy stage of bitcoin and blockchain technology development. I do expect bitcoin to remain above $4000 for the remaining part of this year and I don't think we have any significant reason why bitcoin should go bearish except the games of media we are seeing playing from China to outrightly control bitcoin prices.

I agree with that. We've seen a great run this year but when I look at the weekly chart, zoom out in log scale, we're still far away from being in a bubble. Furthermore I don't understand why people still look at linear chart for a long term view. This is dumb!!
We may take break and consolidate here for a while, maybe dip down to 3500 or so for a short while, but I'm sure the bull run isn't over yet.
Right now there seems to be strong support around 4000. If it holds or we really get the chance to buy more coins below 3800-3900 needs to be seen.

I think that OP is saying that short term we are in a bubble, and i agree with him on that.

Long term, i'm extremely bullish on bitcoin to grow exponentially. There is not even 1% of the world using bitcoin right now and we are alreday at such a high market cap, just think of the potential that bitcoin has when it gains the amount of followers that it needs and becomes accepted by merchants.

However, short term price has risen too much and does not fit the long term growth curve imo. When it grows too much it'll always be followed by a dip, at which point it will overcorrect and presents a good buying opportunity.

[ChainSmoker]

I don't agree with OP at all.He is treating this situation as 2013 which is not.Bitcoin is much more stronger now and bitcoin price is no where high.I expect bitcoin to increase more considering the technology it has.We will never see 2000$ price again let alone 1000$.IMHO,we might go to 3000$ and that will be for short time(if that happens).Once we are up 5000$ there's no going back.  

[d5000]

Just curiosity: What would this "detaxing" mean in this context? Do the US have a tax for simple monetary transactions, or would this mean people would not have to pay VAT if they pay with BTC?

My understanding is that you can spend your bitcoin without thinking about taxation on your side up to 600$ per transaction.
Here is an article of our beloved fortune http://fortune.com/2017/09/07/cryptocurrency-bitcoin-tax

Thanks. Now I understand it a bit better, I think. To summarize: if you make a purchase with coins that have increased in value but the transaction is less than $600 you won't be taxed for capital gains. Sounds good. It's even more bitcoin-friendly than the similar German rule (€600 of "profit" per year there are tax-free, or you must hold the BTC for a year. But there the system is a bit different.).

I disagree with your view of $4950 likely be the end of a bubble. In My view bitcoin is not yet even in the  bubble as we are still at the infancy stage of bitcoin and blockchain technology development. I do expect bitcoin to remain above $4000 for the remaining part of this year and I don't think we have any significant reason why bitcoin should go bearish except the games of media we are seeing playing from China to outrightly control bitcoin prices.

Well, even if we remained above $4000 but didn't cross $5000, we were technically in a bear market

But I also disagree that Bitcoin is so much in "its infancy". Bitcoin is already 8 years old. It's not ultra-mature still, but it's an internet technology, these are "growing up" faster than "real world" tech. Where was Facebook when it was 8? Or Google? OK, you could say "it's a protocol, not a company". But then let's compare it to "social networks" in general. They appeared in 1997 with SixDegrees. Eight years later MySpace was already a relatively well-known and mature player. So I would say that Bitcoin in 2017 is at a similar level than social networks were in 2004/05 approximately.

Don't understand me wrong: Bitcoin can still grow, and grow a lot. But I'm currently not seeing so much "real world" growth that justifies 300%+ in less than a year. (bold, because permabulls seem not to get the importance of that "little" fact).

[Digital Mutant]

 
beware!
 

At the moment market cap is  $145.515.520.319

A big bubble!

...but I'm sorry....it is not...

[ragnar0k]

Well, even if we remained above $4000 but didn't cross $5000, we were technically in a bear market

But I also disagree that Bitcoin is so much in "its infancy". Bitcoin is already 8 years old. It's not ultra-mature still, but it's an internet technology, these are "growing up" faster than "real world" tech. Where was Facebook when it was 8? Or Google? OK, you could say "it's a protocol, not a company". But then let's compare it to "social networks" in general. They appeared in 1997 with SixDegrees. Eight years later MySpace was already a relatively well-known and mature player. So I would say that Bitcoin in 2017 is at a similar level than social networks were in 2004/05 approximately.

Don't understand me wrong: Bitcoin can still grow, and grow a lot. But I'm currently not seeing so much "real world" growth that justifies 300%+ in less than a year. (bold, because permabulls seem not to get the importance of that "little" fact).

So... here is my conspiracy theory:
- BC is based on NSA's S-Box (AES)
- FB is basically NSA
- Since FB has become huge and nobody knows how (wink wink), BC will become huge as well.

Taking out my tin foil hat, that 300% is all the infrastructure that has grown since the last time I tried (and partially failed) to make sense out of bitcoin. It took time, and here I agree with you, will also take time for 'mass adoption'. It can still grow if 'stuff' happens (Russia being forthcoming now is great news), so all in all, I agree that if nothing happens now, we are going bear (hope not 1000$ bear tho). But then again, governments are waking up to bitcoin now, and if more investors start to come in, I can see the infrastructure to bring in people improving exponentially - you never know what is next

[d5000]

As things are developing mostly like I expected (even the $4000+ bounce), I want to reiterate my warning.

It isn't at all sure that we will continue the bull ride! It is very likely that we are in a dead cat bounce / bull trap.

I think it's already too late to ride this wave. If price really reaches a new all time high over $5000, then we can expect another bullish "leg". Otherwise, I would consider investing in BTC at this moment be essentially "gambling". At least you should observe the price carefully or set a stop-loss (limit) order if you want to buy now.

In the 2013/14 bubble and subsequent crash, there was a similar upswing in January 2014 which surpassed $1000 again. It only lasted for a week or so. We're still inside of this time frame.



The bounce I mean is the first one that is seen here (after the big red crash). If we follow this pattern, then the second, much longer, bounce could drive prices again in the $3500 area, but not to $4000. And the lows will be lower every time, most likely the next one about 2300-2500$, then $1800, and if everything goes wrong we may dip near the 2013 all time high of $1150. A sustainable lower low would surprise me, although unfortunately it's not impossible.