[TAT.VIRTUALMINE]

[ranlo]

I don't understand why more people aren't interested in this with a 200% annual return so far....talk me into/out of buying this!

When you wrote this post, TAT.VIRTUALMINE was paying 19.22 μBTC per day. Now, it is paying only 16.09 μBTC per day. In less than two weeks, it is likely to drop to around 13 μBTC per day. If it continues dropping at this rate (20% every two weeks), the return will be a lot less than 200%.

I think difficulty is going to rise even faster soon. Look how many asics are now shipping out. This is going to cause a massive difficulty spike.

[redmetal]

I think difficulty is going to rise even faster soon. Look how many asics are now shipping out. This is going to cause a massive difficulty spike.

It will, just look at how much is on preorder, ASIC miner wants to have 800th to 1000th by the end of the year, thats already a 500% increase.
KNC has about 500th on preorder, BFL would have similar, there are also the 100 of thousands if not millions of Avalon chips all rated at 0.3gh soon to be shipped, then we have ActiveMining with there 24th monster machines.
A conservative estimate would put hashing power at 2ph - 4ph by January, a crazy 1000% to 2000% increase. Then your PMB's will earn next to nothing.

[odolvlobo]

I think difficulty is going to rise even faster soon. Look how many asics are now shipping out. This is going to cause a massive difficulty spike.

It will, just look at how much is on preorder, ASIC miner wants to have 800th to 1000th by the end of the year, thats already a 500% increase.
KNC has about 500th on preorder, BFL would have similar, there are also the 100 of thousands if not millions of Avalon chips all rated at 0.3gh soon to be shipped, then we have ActiveMining with there 24th monster machines.
A conservative estimate would put hashing power at 2ph - 4ph by January, a crazy 1000% to 2000% increase. Then your PMB's will earn next to nothing.

On the other hand, many of these predictions could be wildly optimistic. All ASIC miner production schedules have been wildly optimistic so far and there is no reason to think the trend won't continue. So, my recommendation is to cut your expectations by a factor of 10 or so.

[ranlo]

I think difficulty is going to rise even faster soon. Look how many asics are now shipping out. This is going to cause a massive difficulty spike.

It will, just look at how much is on preorder, ASIC miner wants to have 800th to 1000th by the end of the year, thats already a 500% increase.
KNC has about 500th on preorder, BFL would have similar, there are also the 100 of thousands if not millions of Avalon chips all rated at 0.3gh soon to be shipped, then we have ActiveMining with there 24th monster machines.
A conservative estimate would put hashing power at 2ph - 4ph by January, a crazy 1000% to 2000% increase. Then your PMB's will earn next to nothing.

I kind of view the PMB's like a ponzi scheme. Those who get in at the very beginning may make ROI (between their interest and the ability to sell their shares to others via the market) but with every passing day a new person jumping in has a less and less chance of achieving ROI.

I'm still amazed some of the PMB's are being bought for prices that would take, at the current difficulty, over a year to achieve ROI. I can't fathom what people are thinking with those decisions...

[redmetal]

I think difficulty is going to rise even faster soon. Look how many asics are now shipping out. This is going to cause a massive difficulty spike.

It will, just look at how much is on preorder, ASIC miner wants to have 800th to 1000th by the end of the year, thats already a 500% increase.
KNC has about 500th on preorder, BFL would have similar, there are also the 100 of thousands if not millions of Avalon chips all rated at 0.3gh soon to be shipped, then we have ActiveMining with there 24th monster machines.
A conservative estimate would put hashing power at 2ph - 4ph by January, a crazy 1000% to 2000% increase. Then your PMB's will earn next to nothing.

I kind of view the PMB's like a ponzi scheme. Those who get in at the very beginning may make ROI (between their interest and the ability to sell their shares to others via the market) but with every passing day a new person jumping in has a less and less chance of achieving ROI.

I'm still amazed some of the PMB's are being bought for prices that would take, at the current difficulty, over a year to achieve ROI. I can't fathom what people are thinking with those decisions...

Lets look at the history of PMB's;
Tatvm started at 0.007 and so far has paid ~0.001 and are currently trading at 0.0035, thats a loss of 0.0025 per share.
PAJKA.BOND started at 0.1 has paid out ~0.016 and is trading at 0.04, a very nice loss of 0.044 per share.

[CMMPro]

Thanks guys....I could see the div declining etc. I just wondered what the catch was here.
Seems strange that a fund is declaring 200% returns and the price and dividend is steadily declining.

Anyone extend this on a graph to see what the real return will be?

[Tafelpoot]

You should never invest without making your own graphs. Don't believe all the numbers you find flying around here.

[Rannasha]

Thanks guys....I could see the div declining etc. I just wondered what the catch was here.
Seems strange that a fund is declaring 200% returns and the price and dividend is steadily declining.

Return% is calculated (at least on BTCT) based on the accumulated dividends and a recent share price. However, dividends in the past are higher than current dividends, so it'll skew the result.

Anyone extend this on a graph to see what the real return will be?

Returns depend on difficulty and predicting the future difficulty is an arcane art. Rest assured that the difficulty will go up due to more ASICs shipping out, so dividends *and* share prices will go down. How quickly the difficulty will rise and how long it'll take before it starts to flatten off somewhat is very uncertain. Difficulty will flatten out eventually, but the question is if by then there is enough value left in the asset to make investing right now worthwhile. Personally, I think not.

[MilkyLep]

Wow big drop in share price today. People getting worried about the increasing difficulty?

[daCoops]

Yep - Lots of selling and lots of people getting out quickly.

Think many people on this thread were right about PMB's not being a good return, unless of course something drastic happens to the market. If only BTCT allowed short selling!

[redmetal]

Yep - Lots of selling and lots of people getting out quickly.

Think many people on this thread were right about PMB's not being a good return, unless of course something drastic happens to the market. If only BTCT allowed short selling!

Its dropping because difficulty is rising and there are better offers floating around, here is a chart of fixed hash rate assets
http://imgur.com/SuAudMl

[baloo_kiev]

Why are these PMBs so overpriced? DMS.MINING is traded at 0.0075 per 5MH/s, that's almost twice cheaper! I just wish I had enough rep to issue such bonds

[nwfella]

Don't know about everybody else..but I only recently hopped on this bandwagon a few days ago...and have only received one dividend thus far. Thinking it may be time to hop ship already :/

[Rannasha]

Don't know about everybody else..but I only recently hopped on this bandwagon a few days ago...and have only received one dividend thus far. Thinking it may be time to hop ship already :/

According to the history page of the asset, dividends have been paid out properly every day, between 18:00 and 18:05 CEST.

edit: Disregard this post, I checked the BTCT listing of this asset and missed the [BitFunder] tag in the title.

[ThickAsThieves]

Sorry, ran a little behind on this. All set now. I can't wait til BF allows div scheduling...

[daCoops]

Anyone care to speculate or know what will happen to this PMB for the future? As far as I can see, the dividend per share is dropping every 12 days, and obviously the share price too. Is there a cut-off? Will there be a point whereby divs are so low that the Fund will be abandoned?

[ThickAsThieves]

Anyone care to speculate or know what will happen to this PMB for the future? As far as I can see, the dividend per share is dropping every 12 days, and obviously the share price too. Is there a cut-off? Will there be a point whereby divs are so low that the Fund will be abandoned?

It's possible that we'd do a buyback if volume died off and the divs were miniscule. I'm not sure how far away that is though, there is still decent volume, and no one truly knows how quickly the diff will increase in the future.

[JoseRolles]

Wondering why dividends dropped from ฿0.00000765 to ฿0.00000745 per share on 9/3? Is difficulty no longer 65,750,060?

* The formula used:
D is the current difficulty
H is your hash rate in Mhash/s = 1 MH
B is the current block reward in BTC = 25 btc
(H*B/D) * (60*60*24 * 65535 * 10^6 / 2^48)

Difficulty used for the past nine dividend calc was 65,750,060
(1*25/65750060) * (60*60*24 * 65535 * 10^6 / 2^48) = ฿0.00000765

For it to be ฿0.00000745 now, that would mean the difficulty used to calculate was 67,504,230 (below the next estimated difficulty increase).
(1*25/67504230) * (60*60*24 * 65535 * 10^6 / 2^48) = ฿0.00000745


Thanks for the explanation in advance.

[ThickAsThieves]

Wondering why dividends dropped from ฿0.00000765 to ฿0.00000745 per share on 9/3? Is difficulty no longer 65,750,060?

* The formula used:
D is the current difficulty
H is your hash rate in Mhash/s = 1 MH
B is the current block reward in BTC = 25 btc
(H*B/D) * (60*60*24 * 65535 * 10^6 / 2^48)

Difficulty used for the past nine dividend calc was 65,750,060
(1*25/65750060) * (60*60*24 * 65535 * 10^6 / 2^48) = ฿0.00000765

For it to be ฿0.00000745 now, that would mean the difficulty used to calculate was 67,504,230 (below the next estimated difficulty increase).
(1*25/67504230) * (60*60*24 * 65535 * 10^6 / 2^48) = ฿0.00000745


Thanks for the explanation in advance.

Good catch, this was a mistake I somehow missed, I have issued a dividend for the difference.

Thank you!

[nwfella]

Going to be hopping on board for a few more shares here soon. Really digging the daily payouts