CoinTerra announces its first ASIC - Hash-Rate greater than 500 GH/s

[PuertoLibre]

Cointerra is taking happy pills and making things look like it is fine and their machines are truly profitable for more than 2 months.

They say this with the full knowledge that the other companies surrounding them are about to ship many thousands of individual units in increments of 400+ GH/s.

Think about that. Stop being a pussy and stop avoiding reality folks. If you think the current curve is steep, wait till later.

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The good news is that ASICs must become cheaper and I think all the large companies behind closed doors know this. They just don't want to acknowledge this in open public view. Otherwise their pre-orders will significantly downsize prematurely.

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Are you placing your pre-order centered on the reality at the time of delivery or centered around a fantasy of the present being applicable to the future where each customer can turn on _significant multiples_ of _A Terrahash_ that then are coming online?

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[Minor Miner]

Funny, my results lined up 2 months into the future within an error margin of just a few days.
Can I say that this will be true in 6 months? No, why? Because reality is showing an even steeper curve than I used in Excel. So my models will at best, a best case scenario.

I am not interested in two months into the future.   I am mostly interested in 2014 EOY.   Think about where the HR can go before rational people stop buying.   And where it can go because rational people do not know how many TH/s has been pre-ordered and will be delivered (nor when).
The one thing that changes the slope of the curve is the END OF PRE-ORDERS and the first company that starts shipping same day as ordered, changes a lot.   Think about what I mean.

[PuertoLibre]

Funny, my results lined up 2 months into the future within an error margin of just a few days.
Can I say that this will be true in 6 months? No, why? Because reality is showing an even steeper curve than I used in Excel. So my models will at best, a best case scenario.

I am not interested in two months into the future.   I am mostly interested in 2014 EOY.   Think about where the HR can go before rational people stop buying.   And where it can go because rational people do not know how many TH/s has been pre-ordered and will be delivered (nor when).
The one thing that changes the slope of the curve is the END OF PRE-ORDERS and the first company that starts shipping same day as ordered, changes a lot.   Think about what I mean.

Alright, I'll say it.

Alot of people are going to lose their pre-order money.

Why?

Because these companies (almost all of them) are acting as if they aren't shipping out .4 Terrahash per device.

I think only 1 (ONE) company has even acknowledged publicly that they will incrementally lower their prices as market conditions worsen.

I think only 1 company has acknowledged that they have a plan to compensate buyers with chips if they can't make ROI. But only chips.

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I have yet to see any company acknowledge that they need to start work on large parallelism of their current designs. Not 1 so far....

You'll probably wonder why this matters. The reason why it matters is because most have already reached the lowest nm process they could possibly ever afford. And now, they only have two options. Make design changes (at the chip level) and re-charge all their customers for future chips at the same nm level.

Or
(the most likely IMO)

They will have to figure out a way to change their designed platforms and prices to adapt to massively parallel operation. A person only has so many plugs in their home. That is a limiting factor. There is also the problem of heat dissipation spread out over one room. There is a wall coming in the not so distant future where they are going to have to start thinking outside the box to create power efficiency.

If they don't their company is effectively dead.

If they aren't thinking about it before their first units come online, then you can pretty much expect that the company will fail at some point when they can't lower their prices due to base hardware costs and miners can't get a decent amount of profit they really desire in the next offerings.

[BitCoin Operated Boy]

I have excepted a lower price than 15K for 2TH/s as well for the point in time of delivery and my interpretation of their promises.
In addition I can not afford to spend that much which increases my disappointment.

xCrowd offers 2TH's for December with preorder of 30% of total value ($1100)
 

[GandalfG]

I think only 1 (ONE) company has even acknowledged publicly that they will incrementally lower their prices as market conditions worsen.

I think only 1 company has acknowledged that they have a plan to compensate buyers with chips if they can't make ROI. But only chips.

What company do you mean?

[rocks]

Price competition has not only hit, it's going to scare off other competitors. The value of hardware is going to crash so quickly after september that it's likely that many people formerly planning to startup an ASIC venture have now tossed those plans entirely, too much competition. And now people are worried that Nov/Dec asics might not ROI at all.

Mining should always return to the point where the cost of electricity is just under the cost of mining bitcoin, long term.

If I were an ASIC company wanting to stay in this biz long term rather than going for the homerun, facing all these fence-swingers right now, I'd be making incredibly high efficiency ASICs, air cooled, and plan to sell them for a slight markup and make up the difference on volume. A 10gh USB stick for $20 would be a market winner, even as the large asics begin dying like flies at the end of this year.

The ASIC vendor that first does this with stable supply will be the one that survives. We now have multiple 28nm designs coming out that are probably close to the most optimal design, with only marginal improvements going forward.

Once an ASIC vendor has sunk the NRE costs and shipped 1 unit, each additional unit is quite cheap to produce. In the end it will be a race to the bottom price wise for ASIC vendors trying to recoup their NRE funds, or maximize profit. Those that are paying a price premium today for hardware will see that they paid 10x what those units cost 6 months later.

In the end it will settle down similarly to the FPGA era, where the hashrate stabilized for 1 year and individuals could buy new hardware expecting a 2 year ROI in a flat BTC environment (with bonus profitability during upward price movements).

[hope4me]

I think only 1 (ONE) company has even acknowledged publicly that they will incrementally lower their prices as market conditions worsen.

I think only 1 company has acknowledged that they have a plan to compensate buyers with chips if they can't make ROI. But only chips.

What company do you mean?

This fit KNCminner

[klee]

I think only 1 (ONE) company has even acknowledged publicly that they will incrementally lower their prices as market conditions worsen.

I think only 1 company has acknowledged that they have a plan to compensate buyers with chips if they can't make ROI. But only chips.

What company do you mean?

This fit KNCminner

Don't bet your ass!

[FeedbackLoop]

I think only 1 (ONE) company has even acknowledged publicly that they will incrementally lower their prices as market conditions worsen.

I think only 1 company has acknowledged that they have a plan to compensate buyers with chips if they can't make ROI. But only chips.

What company do you mean?

a) KNCminer (price reduction either in November or for orders for November, can't remember)

b) XCrowd  as stated in https://www.xcrowd.co.uk/mining/home.html

[Anenome5]

Agree with all other comments here, this thing will never pay for itself, too late into the market and too over priced:
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/294c1f0fab

The sad thing is, this is more likely:
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/1edc4b3911

You lose 75% of your investment.

Yes difficulty reaching >1 trillion is highly likely.  

I would point out that even with free hardware, $0.10 electricity and <1W per GH the exchange rate would need to be $42,860 per BTC.  In other words miners would be paying $42,860 in electricity (or more if they have less efficient rigs) to mine one BTC.  

Awesome analysis.

Excellent point, but do me one favor, someone who's happy to do math right now, what difficulty is justified by a $110 price? If 1 trillion diff corresponds to $42k price for BTC, what BTC price of $110 corresponds to which diff?

That should give us the end-point of difficulty leveling off and should also tell us roughly when to expect that to finish levelling.

[dhenson]

Excellent point, but do me one favor, someone who's happy to do math right now, what difficulty is justified by a $110 price? If 1 trillion diff corresponds to $42k price for BTC, what BTC price of $110 corresponds to which diff?

That should give us the end-point of difficulty leveling off and should also tell us roughly when to expect that to finish levelling.

Even if someone were to do the math, it wouldn't be accurate as everyone is Pre-Ordering and will end up holding the bag well after it has stopped being profitable.  If you could only buy immediately available hardware, then an accurate assessment could be made.

[geofflosophy]

Excellent point, but do me one favor, someone who's happy to do math right now, what difficulty is justified by a $110 price? If 1 trillion diff corresponds to $42k price for BTC, what BTC price of $110 corresponds to which diff?

That should give us the end-point of difficulty leveling off and should also tell us roughly when to expect that to finish levelling.

Even if someone were to do the math, it wouldn't be accurate as everyone is Pre-Ordering and will end up holding the bag well after it has stopped being profitable.  If you could only buy immediately available hardware, then an accurate assessment could be made.

Also, people will keep mining when it's unprofitable if they are bullish on bitcoin's price... i.e. everyone who purchased mining hardware. I'm pretty sure that most of us wouldn't be here if we didn't think that the $1.2 billion that BTC currently represent will go way up as adoption continues to grow, taking the value of each individual bitcoin with it.

[CoinHoarder]

I'm trying to organize a time to meet the CoinTerra team, hopefully I will hear back from them soon.

Supposedly they added a 5th person to their team. Although.. they didn't tell me who the 5th person is, or what their job is. Now that I think about it, I'm not really sure why they mentioned this... I guess it was just them getting caught up in the excitement of running a start up. I can understand, this would be a very exciting project to undertake.

But anyways, they agreed to meet with me. Hopefully I will hear back from them soon as to a place and time. I will report back here with any news I find out from my trip (good or bad).

Cheers,

Ch

[Anenome5]

Excellent point, but do me one favor, someone who's happy to do math right now, what difficulty is justified by a $110 price? If 1 trillion diff corresponds to $42k price for BTC, what BTC price of $110 corresponds to which diff?

That should give us the end-point of difficulty leveling off and should also tell us roughly when to expect that to finish levelling.

Even if someone were to do the math, it wouldn't be accurate as everyone is Pre-Ordering and will end up holding the bag well after it has stopped being profitable.  If you could only buy immediately available hardware, then an accurate assessment could be made.

It's just to give an idea. Of course it won't be accurate, but it's gonna be a helluva lot more accurate that a 10 trillion difficulty any time during 2014.

[zedicus]

I'm trying to organize a time to meet the CoinTerra team, hopefully I will hear back from them soon.

Supposedly they added a 5th person to their team. Although.. they didn't tell me who the 5th person is, or what their job is. Now that I think about it, I'm not really sure why they mentioned this... I guess it was just them getting caught up in the excitement of running a start up. I can understand, this would be a very exciting project to undertake.

But anyways, they agreed to meet with me. Hopefully I will hear back from them soon as to a place and time. I will report back here with any news I find out from my trip (good or bad).

Cheers,

Ch

Sounds good Coinhoarder! Do you have the gift to gab!? You must convince them to lower their prices and come out swinging! lol

[CoinHoarder]

I'm trying to organize a time to meet the CoinTerra team, hopefully I will hear back from them soon.

Supposedly they added a 5th person to their team. Although.. they didn't tell me who the 5th person is, or what their job is. Now that I think about it, I'm not really sure why they mentioned this... I guess it was just them getting caught up in the excitement of running a start up. I can understand, this would be a very exciting project to undertake.

But anyways, they agreed to meet with me. Hopefully I will hear back from them soon as to a place and time. I will report back here with any news I find out from my trip (good or bad).

Cheers,

Ch

Sounds good Coinhoarder! Do you have the gift to gab!? You must convince them to lower their prices and come out swinging! lol

I will try. 

I like to think I am good with words. I got out of a speeding ticket the other day with my sweet talk. 

[abacus]

But anyways, they agreed to meet with me. Hopefully I will hear back from them soon as to a place and time. I will report back here with any news I find out from my trip (good or bad).

Awesome, I can't wait to read news from you and +1 for lower price request!

Thread already in watchlist.

[dan99]

I'm trying to organize a time to meet the CoinTerra team, hopefully I will hear back from them soon.

Supposedly they added a 5th person to their team. Although.. they didn't tell me who the 5th person is, or what their job is. Now that I think about it, I'm not really sure why they mentioned this... I guess it was just them getting caught up in the excitement of running a start up. I can understand, this would be a very exciting project to undertake.

But anyways, they agreed to meet with me. Hopefully I will hear back from them soon as to a place and time. I will report back here with any news I find out from my trip (good or bad).

Cheers,

Ch

Sounds good Coinhoarder! Do you have the gift to gab!? You must convince them to lower their prices and come out swinging! lol

Tell them to accept credit cards and Paypal that's the way to go

[gkm22d]

Cuz I am sure they never thought of any prices before coming out with the 16k price, I am sure a little sweet talk will bring them down to something more reasonable.

No, the only way my simple brain can see another asic preorder company could thrive would be with some guarantees, or by selling a percentage of the network hashrate, rather than a specific amount of hashpower.

It would also be interesting if one of these companies would just go for it, add 100k to their budget, and hire a real, living PR person. Nerds may build asics alright, but they are terrible at PR.
Then they should come out with like a 20 page PDF with charts and graphs that would help us see that our biggest problem after buying these devices would be finding a store that sells top hats and monocles for bitcoins.

That would he dandy.

[Pinwheel]

16K as pre order for December quite risky investment, little bit too much considering more carefully current scenario, in any way it will pay back and will give you a profit around USD 5,800 by November 2014.

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

Also by announcing price CoinTerra tells competitors what price mark they will have to beat in December, so you pay now 16K and be sure that in December there will be "ship now" offers for better money.

great to see asic's top brass arriving into bitcoins, but obvious they knows little about mining and mining business.

at least private pool with no fee is a must have addition to any mining equipment manufacturer. Much better approach would be to start leasing equipment instead of selling it. I'm in Pune Open-Silicon has manufacturing facility here, I would be interested in lease.