CoinTerra announces its first ASIC - Hash-Rate greater than 500 GH/s

[Praeconium]

Hey guys, could anyone give advice on buying March delivery batch @9btcs in terms of whether its even considerable or should I move on?

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[aerobatic]

The only theory I could come up with is that they know they are about to experience a delay, but they don't want potential customers to read the frustration of december customers..
The most important question is how long this delay will last.  I phoned them today and she told me they should be shipping "any day now", and aiming to start shipping by the end of this week.  But she told the same story last week as well.  

They are way too quiet right now..
I think they are doing just fine, but they want to hold the machines for a little while to make some quick cash.. which should be illegal.  If they want to use the old "testing phase" excuse, then at least forward those bitcoins to the customers during any testing phase of mining..they are ours

you will know as quickly as everyone else knows when they announce something.

cointerra has not announced, nor shown any machines working yet (though they've shown lots of work in progress).

please don't try the old 'they must be mining with our hardware' thing as thats just not plausible and has been proven wrong in almost every other asic company's case (except avalon).

these guys will make announcements when they have news to announce...   and fingers crossed soon they will announce its working, and show it to us.   and then they would presumably announce their shipping dates, etc etc.   it doesn't happen that any mining asic company simply starts mining on their own, ahead of customer shipments.  especially not a company like cointerra which has been open and transparent about every step in the process

in the last few hours of 2013 (i.e. 6 days ago but actually very few 'working' days ago)... they said they would start the board bring up process and to expect an update soon... so hopefully soon means this week as its the first week back at work of the new year.  fingers crossed for some news soon...

[Paladin69]

Hey guys, could anyone give advice on buying March delivery batch @9btcs in terms of whether its even considerable or should I move on?

The difficulty is getting obliterated.  Every coin is getting more and more precious.  I personally wouldn't risk it on these delayed companies.

[Ytterbium]

difficulty will only stop doubling when there is no money left to be made in hardware, ie: hw manufacturing cost basis = price the market is willing to pay.  Currently take the best example - 180GH antminer is going for around 3 btc = $3000, it cost them <$300 at max to make those things (just hardware & manufacturing, not factoring in initial research cost).

So we have a long way to go before difficulty slows down. And it will always overshoot as all manufacture pump out miners until a point they realize they cant sell them anymore and have to lose money to get rid of inventory.  With 28/20nm now near end, there is nothing left but a race to the bottom.  

Expect 20-40% increase every cycle until end of 2014, then the difficulty will likely to slow down, by then you can get a 2-4TH miner for <$1000 assume btc remains at $1000

Yes, it will continue to "double" but not at the same rate.  There are limits on how many units can be made per unit of time, and you need to make larger and larger up-front investments in order to be able to do.   

[Puppet]

There are limits on how many units can be made per unit of time

Theoretically, yes.  But practically, we are so incredibly far removed from that, it doesnt really matter. Where exactly do you see a long term bottleneck?
If you think its assembly; globally we are currently producing ~50M less PC's than last year. Imagine even if only that (assumed idle) assembly capacity is brought to bitcoin miners, then the industry could assemble ~10 EH worth for Cointerra rigs per month based on idle capacity alone.

If you think its asic production, foundries currently have enough capacity for 300K 28nm wafer starts per month. TSMC recently said its running only at about 70% of capacity, so again if we only look at existing and idle capacity we are potentially talking about almost 100K wafers per month, interestingly that also works out to ~10 EH per month.

Its obvious we will hit economic limits long before we really run in to enduring production limits.

[User705]

What were the presale prices for cointerra?

[Sitarow]

Hey guys, could anyone give advice on buying March delivery batch @9btcs in terms of whether its even considerable or should I move on?

If you're contemplating then look at this chart that I have kept up.

It compares available hardware vs possible network increase.

Included is an exponential network growth at 20% and 30%.

However as far as network difficulty forecast is concerned anything greater then 2 - 3 months out is highly speculative.

Make a copy for yourself and key in your own details and existing setup.

Here are the return results if the network increases an average of 20% every 12 days.
Or by end of March 4380085631 difficulty.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmeuPljmUNHCdEpqX2RmMDFwemJyLURVUWFtZ3J3aGc&usp=sharing

[sirky]

What were the presale prices for cointerra?

I think it was 16k briefly, and then they lowered to 14k.

[aerobatic]

What were the presale prices for cointerra?

originally it was $14000 for 2 TH (a TerraMiner IV in december batch) then january the price was $6,000 per 2 TH box...  and thats the price its stayed for the remainder of the preorder period.   I don't expect them to retain those prices after they start shipping.   Pre-order prices have a high implied discount versus 'in hand and shipping in two days' prices.

[Endlessa]

What were the presale prices for cointerra?

originally it was $14000 for 2 TH (a TerraMiner IV in december batch) then january the price was $6,000 per 2 TH box...  and thats the price its stayed for the remainder of the preorder period.   I don't expect them to retain those prices after they start shipping.   Pre-order prices have a high implied discount versus 'in hand and shipping in two days' prices.

Historically, no Asic company has raised prices, even with products in hand.  It's highly doubtful that the price will ever go up, since the return continuously goes down (even more so after shipping a crap ton of new hash to the network).

[aerobatic]

What were the presale prices for cointerra?

originally it was $14000 for 2 TH (a TerraMiner IV in december batch) then january the price was $6,000 per 2 TH box...  and thats the price its stayed for the remainder of the preorder period.   I don't expect them to retain those prices after they start shipping.   Pre-order prices have a high implied discount versus 'in hand and shipping in two days' prices.

Historically, no Asic company has raised prices, even with products in hand.  It's highly doubtful that the price will ever go up, since the return continuously goes down (even more so after shipping a crap ton of new hash to the network).

thats not true that no asic companies raised prices... some companies did once they started shipping and they didn't have to give massive pre-order discounts.  I'm pretty sure avalon did raise prices between batches, as did Butterflylabs...   and its also not true that return always goes down.  that depends on how much hash power is offered at what price and what the network diff rises are... and also, the price of bitcoins makes a huge difference to new miners entering the market.   and if they don't have to pre-order with wide gaps between when they order and when they receive them, they can calculate their roi much more accurately.

i know we're talking about cointerra here... but hashfast has already pre-announced that they're about to announce substantially higher prices.

cointerra's in an odd position.. although they have expensive and powerful boxes... their prices (as measured Per GH)  are significantly under their peers (knc, hashfast, bitfury, bitmine) yet their box is perhaps one of the better ones (good cooling, good power design, small and dense box, fully integrated (controller, power supplies etc)... which would be lower cost to host & run than other options.   AND the price of bitcoin has gone up substantially (10x) since they started selling pre-orders which makes the roi on their boxes better than some other options out there...   so it does seem like they underpriced it in order to get their orders in to pay their nre costs and initial production run.. and once they start shipping their pricing could in theory change to a market based price (same $/GH as their competitors) rather than the deeply discounted pre-order price they've been offering til now.

[Easy2Mine]

Historically, no Asic company has raised prices, even with products in hand.  It's highly doubtful that the price will ever go up, since the return continuously goes down (even more so after shipping a crap ton of new hash to the network).

Are you sure?
The only company that never raised price was Asicminer.
Their products are overpriced, I never made the BTC back, but I am not even angry at them.
It was the risk I took and it was a fair bargain at that time.
Avalon and BFL like too raise price, but they can't do it now, because there are so many competition.
BTW Avalon is fucking cheap in China now if you know where to buy.
Already deployed a private farm in Fenggang, a small village near Shenzhen.
Even with the power hungry avalon Gen 2 chips it already earn the BTC back and will earn a lot more before Cointerra even starts to ship

[Easy2Mine]

Personally I don't like the Cointerra team.
I don't like their faces.
But if Cointerra proved they have working units, I will jump into it inclusive the hosting option.

[Biffa]

Historically, no Asic company has raised prices, even with products in hand.  It's highly doubtful that the price will ever go up, since the return continuously goes down (even more so after shipping a crap ton of new hash to the network).

Are you sure?
The only company that never raised price was Asicminer.

Bitfury raised their prices as well for some mad reason. Probably because they knew they had XXX number of people with semi populated kits that need the extra blades.

[Puppet]

and once they start shipping their pricing could in theory change to a market based price (same $/GH as their competitors) rather than the deeply discounted pre-order price they've been offering til now.

While competition is a factor, you cant talk about prices without talking about future difficulty. And future difficulty is a direct result of sales volume. That is the big unknown (aside from BTC price obviously). If all asic vendors combined only sold a few dozen PH, then Im sure there is room for prices to go up, at least for some time. If otoh, over the next 6 months we will see 100's of PH are being shipped and deployed, and BTC price remains roughly where it is now,  I dont see much of a market for $3/GH miners anymore.

[de_ixie]

and once they start shipping their pricing could in theory change to a market based price (same $/GH as their competitors) rather than the deeply discounted pre-order price they've been offering til now.

While competition is a factor, you cant talk about prices without talking about future difficulty. And future difficulty is a direct result of sales volume. That is the big unknown (aside from BTC price obviously). If all asic vendors combined only sold a few dozen PH, then Im sure there is room for prices to go up, at least for some time. If otoh, over the next 6 months we will see 100's of PH are being shipped and deployed, and BTC price remains roughly where it is now,  I dont see much of a market for $3/GH miners anymore.

Wikipedia

Cartels usually occur in an oligopolistic industry, where the number of sellers is small (usually because barriers to entry, most notably startup costs, are high) and the products being traded are usually commodities Bitcoin Miners. Cartel members may agree on such matters as price fixing, total industry output, market shares, allocation of customers, allocation of territories, bid rigging, establishment of common sales agencies, and the division of profits or combination of these.

Lets hope  

[ImI]

and once they start shipping their pricing could in theory change to a market based price (same $/GH as their competitors) rather than the deeply discounted pre-order price they've been offering til now.

While competition is a factor, you cant talk about prices without talking about future difficulty. And future difficulty is a direct result of sales volume. That is the big unknown (aside from BTC price obviously). If all asic vendors combined only sold a few dozen PH, then Im sure there is room for prices to go up, at least for some time. If otoh, over the next 6 months we will see 100's of PH are being shipped and deployed, and BTC price remains roughly where it is now,  I dont see much of a market for $3/GH miners anymore.

hundreds of PTH/s?

lol!

[Puppet]

and once they start shipping their pricing could in theory change to a market based price (same $/GH as their competitors) rather than the deeply discounted pre-order price they've been offering til now.

While competition is a factor, you cant talk about prices without talking about future difficulty. And future difficulty is a direct result of sales volume. That is the big unknown (aside from BTC price obviously). If all asic vendors combined only sold a few dozen PH, then Im sure there is room for prices to go up, at least for some time. If otoh, over the next 6 months we will see 100's of PH are being shipped and deployed, and BTC price remains roughly where it is now,  I dont see much of a market for $3/GH miners anymore.

hundreds of PTH/s?

lol!

Its a hypothetical, not a prediction. 12 PH seems even more absurd. FWIW we seem to be adding ~3-400 TH daily at this point, before anyone we know is shipping. If that were to continue you are already looking at 100PH per year. You dont think the pace will pick up once HF, CT, Bitmine, BFL etc will start shipping?

[Puppet]

Wikipedia



Lets hope  

Cartels wont work for bitcoin miners. Mining is a zero sum game, so asic vendors are competing with themselves even if there was no one else.  So even a monopolist can not continue to charge prices that will make their product appear unable to ever ROI. Every TH they add to the network reduces the market value of their unsold products.

[ImI]

hundreds of PTH/s?

lol!

Its a hypothetical, not a prediction. 12 PH seems even more absurd. FWIW we seem to be adding ~3-400 TH daily at this point, before anyone we know is shipping. If that were to continue you are already looking at 100PH per year. You dont think the pace will pick up once HF, CT, Bitmine, BFL etc will start shipping?

did i say 12 PH/s?

If that were to continue you are already looking at 100PH per year.

Exactly 100 PH per year, no problem with that. Nevertheless that somehow sounds alot different than your previous post:

If otoh, over the next 6 months we will see 100's of PH are being shipped and deployed

You dont think the pace will pick up once HF, CT, Bitmine, BFL etc will start shipping?

Oh, yes i do think that the pace will pick up. Who doesnt? Nevertheless its still bullshit to assume "hundreds of PH/s coming online next 6 months".