.

[TiagoTiago]

What is your prediction about the accuracy of your predictions about the price?

[Tzupy]

115 just happened, so your prediction became true early!
It's unsustainable IMO, but weird things can happen...

[proudhon]

[phoenix1]

If we don't reach $115 again by tomorrow this is done.

We just did ... now  what ?

[Tzupy]

I bought only 22 at 112, so I have something to sell, and sold them at 114.95.
But I'm waiting for confirmations for 40 more from Bitstamp, so please don't drop below 114 during the next hours.  

PS. @chodpaba: does your indicator take into consideration the possibility of entering a positive feedback loop (if the BTC on Fort Gox are depleted)?

[Pruden]

Chodpaba, I admire the depth of your philosophical prose, but I can still remember when you introduced some indicator that would signal the bubble peak, even posting hourly with huge zooms into your chart as the market moved towards the sell signal and triggered it, only to then confess you had run the numbers again and got a completely different image. That, and this market-relevant event below, make it clear:

BUY BUY BUY  

[Adrian-x]

LOL'ed,

You in the wrong section, can't help but think you are Chodpaba

[ElectricMucus]

proudhon isn't chodpaba.

Anyway can we call this 'done' since we have bounced off 115 two times now?

[Tzupy]

Double top should mean we go down from now, but something is not right:
There are about 20k BTC missing from the orders, during the last 3 days.
This could keep the upwards trend going (if more BTC leave Fort Gox).

PS. chodpaba, would you mind giving another prediction, considering that the 'missing' 20k BTC should influence the market.
Today's rally was mostly whale-driven (well, major buyer), while the last one on the 31st July was mostly market-driven (didn't result in missing BTC).

PS2. thank you for the answer below, I also suspect we will move a bit sideways and then 'have a ride'.
My concern is when to get out of this ride, before it crashes (I mean when to move my coins from Gox to Bitstamp).

[Adrian-x]

hysteresis loop

You keep expanding my vocabulary. Thanks
Do I understand the effect correctly?
The blue line represents trend up and the red trend motion down and a lot of coin is speculative recycling in the process.
I presume the annealing metaphor is appropriated in it is forging a ductile market.



Force = Price
Loading = Bid demand
Unloading = Ask demand
Extension = overall market demand (or time?)

Just out of curiosity, in your opinion is this process being manipulated, or is it forming directly as chaotic feedback form market forces?

[AU]

^ That sounds really great but the price is declining lol

[rampantparanoia]

I don't know. It's hard to tell.

We might actually have a few up days in the cards before this turns around.

But as its sure to go down... How low will it go?

[adamstgBit]

I don't know. It's hard to tell.

We might actually have a few up days in the cards before this turns around.

But as its sure to go down...  How low will it go?

its not "sure to go down"

is it? 

[bb113]

chodpapa please us with the bitcoin version of the following:


R code:

Code:

############################
##LORENZ strange attractor##
############################
#Modified From:
#http://fractalswithr.blogspot.com/2007/04/lorenz-attractor.html


# install.packages("rgl") # Install if needed.
library(rgl)

#####Settings
add.noise=F  #Gaussian +/- noise.sd
noise.sd=.01
live.plot=T
##

####Parameters
a=15; r=28; b=8/3; dt=0.01

n=5000   #Iterations
##


####Initial Conditions
Xa=0.01; Ya=0.01; Za=0.01    #Initial Condition Blue
Xb=0.01+.0001; Yb=0.01; Zb=0.01    #Initial Condition Red (Slight Difference)
Xc=20; Yc=20; Zc=.01    #Initial Condition Black (Large Difference)
##


####Misc
XYZa=array(0,dim=c(n,3))
XYZb=array(0,dim=c(n,3))
XYZc=array(0,dim=c(n,3))

par3d(font=2, family="serif", 
      bg3d(color=c("darkslategray3","Black"), 
           fogtype="exp2", sphere=TRUE, back="fill")
)
##


####Run
for(i in 1:n)
{
X1a=Xa; Y1a=Ya; Z1a=Za

Xa=X1a+(-a*X1a+a*Y1a)*dt
Ya=Y1a+(-X1a*Z1a+r*X1a-Y1a)*dt
Za=Z1a+(X1a*Y1a-b*Z1a)*dt


X1b=Xb; Y1b=Yb; Z1b=Zb

Xb=X1b+(-a*X1b+a*Y1b)*dt
Yb=Y1b+(-X1b*Z1b+r*X1b-Y1b)*dt
Zb=Z1b+(X1b*Y1b-b*Z1b)*dt


X1c=Xc; Y1c=Yc; Z1c=Zc

Xc=X1c+(-a*X1c+a*Y1c)*dt
Yc=Y1c+(-X1c*Z1c+r*X1c-Y1c)*dt
Zc=Z1c+(X1c*Y1c-b*Z1c)*dt


if(add.noise==T){
Xa<-rnorm(1,Xa,noise.sd)
Xb<-rnorm(1,Xb,noise.sd)
Xc<-rnorm(1,Xc,noise.sd)

Ya<-rnorm(1,Ya,noise.sd)
Yb<-rnorm(1,Yb,noise.sd)
Yc<-rnorm(1,Yc,noise.sd)

Za<-rnorm(1,Za,noise.sd)
Zb<-rnorm(1,Zb,noise.sd)
Zc<-rnorm(1,Zc,noise.sd)
}

XYZa[i,]=c(Xa,Ya,Za)
XYZb[i,]=c(Xb,Yb,Zb)
XYZc[i,]=c(Xc,Yc,Zc)

if(live.plot==T){
points3d(XYZa[i,1],XYZa[i,2],XYZa[i,3], col="Blue", alpha=.7, add=T)
points3d(XYZb[i,1],XYZb[i,2],XYZb[i,3], col="Red", alpha=.7, add=T)
points3d(XYZc[i,1],XYZc[i,2],XYZc[i,3], col="Black", alpha=.7, add=T)

points3d(XYZa[i,1],XYZa[i,2],XYZa[i,3], col="Blue", alpha=1, size=10, add=T)
points3d(XYZb[i,1],XYZb[i,2],XYZb[i,3], col="Red", alpha=1, size=10, add=T)
points3d(XYZc[i,1],XYZc[i,2],XYZc[i,3], col="Black", alpha=1, size=10, add=T)

rgl.pop()
rgl.pop()
rgl.pop()
}

}
##

if(!live.plot==T){
points3d(XYZa[,1],XYZa[,2],XYZa[,3], col="Blue", alpha=.5, add=T)
points3d(XYZb[,1],XYZb[,2],XYZb[,3], col="Red", alpha=.5, add=T)
points3d(XYZc[,1],XYZc[,2],XYZc[,3], col="Black", alpha=.5, add=T)
}

[Tzupy]

No more peak predictions from chodpaba? The way I see the market, we seem to be stuck.
The whale isn't willing (as I write this) to buy at 115, and the rest of the market seems weak.
He is just herding the market into buying, but this isn't working well until now.
Is there still a chance that we hit 120, or 115 was the peak of this bubble period?
I mean, if the sideways continues for several days, this counts as local peaks in the
5th wave, and we know what happens at the end of wave 5: harvesting.

[molecular]

No more peak predictions from chodpaba? The way I see the market, we seem to be stuck.
The whale isn't willing (as I write this) to buy at 115, and the rest of the market seems weak.
He is just herding the market into buying, but this isn't working well until now.
Is there still a chance that we hit 120, or 115 was the peak of this bubble period?
I mean, if the sideways continues for several days, this counts as local peaks in the
5th wave, and we know what happens at the end of wave 5: harvesting.

you keep talking about "the whale"... who the hell is "the whale"?

Is that some sort of personification of certain types of trading behaviour?

[Tzupy]

IMO the whale is the one who has removed about 40k - 50k BTC from the ask sum, and drove
the price to the current high. It's also the one with the fake buy orders from 105 to 110, that are
only a scaffold for the sheeple to place their orders and then to be fleeced.
I admit that there could be several whales acting together, not just one big whale.

[dwdoc]

We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Looking pretty good.  Where will we be in 2 weeks?

[Tzupy]

Do you mean, after we broke 120, you still see sideways and down?

[Tzupy]

Most people don't believe the 'to da moon' slogan, so yes, a market reversal is expected soon.
But does your analysis show that this last peak was the 3rd sub-wave of wave 5, and not the 2nd?

In the meantime, while the market should slowly drop towards 114, it plays with itself at 118...