derpinheimer
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 20, 2013, 04:49:03 PM |
|
i'm curious, if we do have another correction where would you place support?
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FySWwH5e.png&t=665&c=rtZW7o_cyFF7Kg)
|
|
|
|
rampantparanoia
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 20, 2013, 04:50:31 PM |
|
i'm curious, if we do have another correction where would you place support?
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FySWwH5e.png&t=665&c=rtZW7o_cyFF7Kg) net worth $260 million.... to da mooooon!!
|
|
|
|
derpinheimer
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 20, 2013, 04:53:08 PM |
|
i'm curious, if we do have another correction where would you place support?
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FySWwH5e.png&t=665&c=rtZW7o_cyFF7Kg) net worth $260 million.... to da mooooon!! lmao 50 cent becomes a bitcoin entrepreneur
|
|
|
|
adamstgBit
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 20, 2013, 04:58:06 PM |
|
interesting, i don't see it quite that way, but we appear to be on the same page.
|
|
|
|
Tzupy
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 20, 2013, 04:58:54 PM |
|
I doubt the support concept works here. The correction that happened yesterday had just 2 dumps, one small one large, then a strong rebound due to thin asks. If a correction gets close to 125$ without further rolling the price imbalance, the price will stabilize there. But that would be in contradiction with the EW theory, which says that the local bottom should be deeper than the one of the 7th. So I placed my buy order just above 120$, but right now I'm not sure if it will drop that low.
|
Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
|
|
|
adamstgBit
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 20, 2013, 05:23:47 PM |
|
I doubt the support concept works here. The correction that happened yesterday had just 2 dumps, one small one large, then a strong rebound due to thin asks. If a correction gets close to 125$ without further rolling the price imbalance, the price will stabilize there. But that would be in contradiction with the EW theory, which says that the local bottom should be deeper than the one of the 7th. So I placed my buy order just above 120$, but right now I'm not sure if it will drop that low.
I place support at 129. I think the resistance stoping price from moving up, will become support, when the reversal really does happen. obvious bump in the road is obvious.
|
|
|
|
Patel
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1321
Merit: 1007
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 20, 2013, 08:58:43 PM |
|
ETA 30 min
:yawn: @ 1 hour now. thar she blows matey 125 --> 121
|
|
|
|
derpinheimer
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 20, 2013, 11:32:24 PM |
|
ETA 30 min
:yawn: @ 1 hour now. thar she blows matey 125 --> 121 that's not really panic
|
|
|
|
adamstgBit
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 20, 2013, 11:45:53 PM Last edit: September 20, 2013, 11:58:43 PM by adamstgBit |
|
ETA 30 min
:yawn: @ 1 hour now. thar she blows matey 125 --> 121 that's not really panic its a strategic sell at the top of the bottom ![Cool](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cool.gif)
|
|
|
|
Adrian-x
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 21, 2013, 01:16:46 AM |
|
your persistence shakes my irrational confidence?
|
Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
|
|
|
ElectricMucus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 21, 2013, 04:22:38 PM |
|
I've been thinking, if you match the trails to a multivariate distribution you might get a better result for the median.
|
|
|
|
ElectricMucus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 21, 2013, 04:53:34 PM |
|
Hmm, what about: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multivariate_stable_distributionThese loosely scattered trails on the top right of the median seem like they might fit. The thing with PDFs is unless you understand the process and know which one to use it's always guesswork, but it might be "close enough"...
|
|
|
|
Patel
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1321
Merit: 1007
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 21, 2013, 06:41:10 PM |
|
I don't understand how chodpabas charts are predicting the future price...
Is it based on current trends? Because that doesn't take into account if we get big news, good news, bad news, bitcoin etf passes, huge headlines on mainstream media, gox pays out
Just one of those variables can change the whole perspective
|
|
|
|
adamstgBit
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 21, 2013, 06:53:21 PM |
|
I don't understand how chodpabas charts are predicting the future price...
Is it based on current trends? Because that doesn't take into account if we get big news, good news, bad news, bitcoin etf passes, huge headlines on mainstream media, gox pays out
Just one of those variables can change the whole perspective
nothing can predict the future, this is an indicator based some kind of metric. its cool
|
|
|
|
btcgoldsilver
Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 63
Merit: 10
Bitcoins Gold Silver
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 22, 2013, 09:31:10 AM |
|
Almost time for a pop to the upside ..
|
16ZodW6mxFkmxrCy5MSii7PLJ6VdfNknue
|
|
|
lebing
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 22, 2013, 03:45:21 PM |
|
Almost time for a pop to the upside ..
seems to look that way... we'll see i guess.
|
Bro, do you even blockchain? -E Voorhees
|
|
|
Tzupy
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 22, 2013, 03:57:20 PM Last edit: September 22, 2013, 08:07:10 PM by Tzupy |
|
I hope that everyone is being so quiet because they are busy ramping up their understanding of statistical quantitative analysis.
Good one! If the drop in the money flow persists for another 2 - 3 hours, we may have another price drop, possibly to 125$. PS. So far, despite the low money flow, no price drop. Looks like the price will stabilize at 133$ for a while, or even a bit higher.
|
Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
|
|
|
Swordsoffreedom
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2884
Merit: 1115
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 22, 2013, 09:26:27 PM |
|
I hope that everyone is being so quiet because they are busy ramping up their understanding of statistical quantitative analysis.
True enough not sure what I am looking at now ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
|
..Stake.com.. | | | ▄████████████████████████████████████▄ ██ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██ ▄████▄ ██ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██████████ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██ ██████ ██ ██████████ ██ ██ ██████████ ██ ▀██▀ ██ ██ ██ ██████ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██████ ██ █████ ███ ██████ ██ ████▄ ██ ██ █████ ███ ████ ████ █████ ███ ████████ ██ ████ ████ ██████████ ████ ████ ████▀ ██ ██████████ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██████████ ██ ██ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██ ▀█████████▀ ▄████████████▄ ▀█████████▀ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄███ ██ ██ ███▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██████████████████████████████████████████ | | | | | | ▄▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄ █ ▄▀▄ █▀▀█▀▄▄ █ █▀█ █ ▐ ▐▌ █ ▄██▄ █ ▌ █ █ ▄██████▄ █ ▌ ▐▌ █ ██████████ █ ▐ █ █ ▐██████████▌ █ ▐ ▐▌ █ ▀▀██████▀▀ █ ▌ █ █ ▄▄▄██▄▄▄ █ ▌▐▌ █ █▐ █ █ █▐▐▌ █ █▐█ ▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▀█ | | | | | | ▄▄█████████▄▄ ▄██▀▀▀▀█████▀▀▀▀██▄ ▄█▀ ▐█▌ ▀█▄ ██ ▐█▌ ██ ████▄ ▄█████▄ ▄████ ████████▄███████████▄████████ ███▀ █████████████ ▀███ ██ ███████████ ██ ▀█▄ █████████ ▄█▀ ▀█▄ ▄██▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██▄ ▄▄▄█▀ ▀███████ ███████▀ ▀█████▄ ▄█████▀ ▀▀▀███▄▄▄███▀▀▀ | | | ..PLAY NOW.. |
|
|
|
derpinheimer
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 23, 2013, 04:48:14 AM |
|
I hope that everyone is being so quiet because they are busy ramping up their understanding of statistical quantitative analysis.
True enough not sure what I am looking at now ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) It is intended to be an estimate for a projected intermediate trend reversal. The median value is my estimate of the 50th percentile outcome. That is, I think there is an equal probability that this will occur above, or below the price target, and either before or after the indicated date. If in a month the price is anywhere from $50-$100 I'd definitely be extremely interested in learning more about this method ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) What might the percentile be for $50-$80, 9-23 thru 10-23? % chance that any time in the next 30 days the price goes into that range?
|
|
|
|
Adrian-x
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 25, 2013, 10:22:12 PM |
|
The only reason time is important is investors/traders want to know whether to buy or sell now to benefit in the future. At the end of the day time is an illusion albeit a practical one when engaging with others.
|
Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
|
|
|
|