Old BFL buyers vs new asicminer prices

[DeathAndTaxes]

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  
Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.

Why is this even posted in this thread?  Isn't this supposed to be about the Monarch?

You can lead a horse to water ...

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[xstr8guy]

I suppose it needs it's own thread as I suggested since it is quite valuable information about the current market vs. the past market purchases. That should play into your decision when making any NEW PURCHASES like the BFL Monarch... ergo this is maybe a good place to point out the failures of BFL delivery. Would it not? To protect people possibly making the wrong choice when purchasing? Or should we all ignore this analysis?

Haven't we analyzed this to death?  There are dozens of threads about this very topic.  Is it really necessary to ruin another thread with the same stuff we've been reading for months?  I personally want to hear what others have to say about the Monarch.  Nothing else.

[Ytterbium]

Really, so you're claiming that 20 * 13 = 1500?  Wow...

But lets go back to the USD assessment.  The only way your figures work out is if you have 100% prediction ability or you use hindsight, neither of which are considered acceptable investing methodologies.  

Once again, your entire premise is flawed.  If you (or anyone) were so good at predicting the bitcoin price back then, why are you not a multi-billionaire?  If you knew BTC was going to go up, especially as much as it did, why were you not mortgaging the house, selling your mother and pimping out your cats and dogs to buy BTC?  You'd be an @#$%@% idiot not to... yet you didn't, why?  

Hindsight investing is great, except it's a bunch of shit, which is why comparing the price in BTC of anything in August 2012 to something in 2013 is a bunch of shit.

The incredible irony in that statement, is that some people did invest all the money they could, in buying BFL hardware.

You would agree that if people had perfect foresight, they would not have purchased your products, right? In fact, as I pointed out,  in the summer of 2012 they would have been better off buying GPUs. 

Just a reminder - I never bought anything from BFL, instead I bought a B2 Avalon unit, and that unit has (as I mentioned) already paid for itself in bitcoins. Not only that, one of the main reasons I bought it in February is because I thought you wouldn't ship for a long time, long enough for me to get my unit and start hashing away before you flooded the network.

I was right.

It's just incredible. You come on here and call everyone failures and losers with zero foresight.  The reason they failed, and lost is because they trusted you.

On the other hand, I predicted you would continue to fail to deliver long past February, and I was right.

It's totally incredible. You say that the smart people are the ones who made money, because they predicted the future.  Well, I predicted you would fail. And I made a lot of money because you did.

[PuertoLibre]

I suppose it needs it's own thread as I suggested since it is quite valuable information about the current market vs. the past market purchases. That should play into your decision when making any NEW PURCHASES like the BFL Monarch... ergo this is maybe a good place to point out the failures of BFL delivery. Would it not? To protect people possibly making the wrong choice when purchasing? Or should we all ignore this analysis?

Haven't we analyzed this to death?  There are dozens of threads about this very topic.  Is it really necessary to ruin another thread with the same stuff we've been reading for months?  I personally want to hear what others have to say about the Monarch.  Nothing else.

Such as...?

Make an example

[Inaba]

Really, so you're claiming that 20 * 13 = 1500?  Wow...

But lets go back to the USD assessment.  The only way your figures work out is if you have 100% prediction ability or you use hindsight, neither of which are considered acceptable investing methodologies. 

Once again, your entire premise is flawed.  If you (or anyone) were so good at predicting the bitcoin price back then, why are you not a multi-billionaire?  If you knew BTC was going to go up, especially as much as it did, why were you not mortgaging the house, selling your mother and pimping out your cats and dogs to buy BTC?  You'd be an @#$%@% idiot not to... yet you didn't, why? 

Hindsight investing is great, except it's a bunch of shit, which is why comparing the price in BTC of anything in August 2012 to something in 2013 is a bunch of shit.

The incredible irony in that statement, is that some people did invest all the money they could, in buying BFL hardware.

You would agree that if people had perfect foresight, they would not have purchased your products, right? In fact, as I pointed out,  in the summer of 2012 they would have been better off buying GPUs. 

Just a reminder - I never bought anything from BFL, instead I bought a B2 Avalon unit, and that unit has (as I mentioned) already paid for itself in bitcoins. Not only that, one of the main reasons I bought it in February is because I thought you wouldn't ship for a long time, long enough for me to get my unit and start hashing away before you flooded the network.

I was right.

It's just incredible. You come on here and call everyone failures and losers with zero foresight.  The reason they failed, and lost is because they trusted you.

On the other hand, I predicted you would continue to fail to deliver long past February, and I was right.

It's totally incredible. You say that the smart people are the ones who made money, because they predicted the future.  Well, I predicted you would fail. And I made a lot of money because you did.

Huh, I can't seem to find my quote where I called everyone failures and losers with zero foresight, can you please point that out?  You wouldn't be making things up, would you?

We're talking about 100% accurate predictions, not speculation.  Get it straight and then come back and maybe we can have an adult conversation.  But until then, when you start off with your entire premise being unrelated to the topic your quoting, we might as well not even have the conversation.

[PuertoLibre]

Nope, he is telling the truth about that.

Simply use the search bar at the top right. Go ahead, search.

[Bicknellski]

I suppose it needs it's own thread as I suggested since it is quite valuable information about the current market vs. the past market purchases. That should play into your decision when making any NEW PURCHASES like the BFL Monarch... ergo this is maybe a good place to point out the failures of BFL delivery. Would it not? To protect people possibly making the wrong choice when purchasing? Or should we all ignore this analysis?

Haven't we analyzed this to death?  There are dozens of threads about this very topic.  Is it really necessary to ruin another thread with the same stuff we've been reading for months?  I personally want to hear what others have to say about the Monarch.  Nothing else.

Such as...?

Make an example

It is not even a prototype correct? No gerbers? No BOM even? Just a drawing... what more can you say about it? Other than taking specifications they claim it will have and doing an analysis and then determining whether or not it is a good buy correct?

Given what Death is saying in a comparison of the Asicminer Blades vs. 2012 BFL Products that have yet to ship... you might want to really rethink whether or not the Monarch has any value other than a thought experiment into a PCIe miner, seems to be hard to say anymore than that right? Forgive me but doesn't BFL have a forum for all this information. Why would anyone come here to get updated info on this product should you not go to the source?

[xstr8guy]

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  
Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.

Why is this even posted in this thread?  Isn't this supposed to be about the Monarch?

You can lead a horse to water ...

... but you can't make him drink.  Especially if it's the same ol' stinky, stagnant water you've tried to make him drink hundreds of times before.

[Bicknellski]

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  
Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.

Why is this even posted in this thread?  Isn't this supposed to be about the Monarch?

You can lead a horse to water ...

... but you can't make him drink.  Especially if it's the same ol' stinky, stagnant water you've tried to make him drink hundreds of times before.

The analogy here is there is no water to drink (0 real information about the units that do not even exist except as a picture). Try BFL forums for more information right?

[Cablez]

Well ASICMiner just gave mini rig buyers a punch in the gut.  

Buy from BFL in August 2012. 1x mini-rig 1.5 TH/s @ 3000 BTC
Buy from ASICMiner in August 2013.  120x Eruptor Blades 1.5 TH/s @ 420 BTC
So buy from ASICMiner a year later, no pre-order stress, product will ship in days, spend 86% less, get the same hashing power and receive it sooner.

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.

on edit: Fixed a typo 120 boards not 20.  The typo seems obvious to me.  1,500 GH/s / 1.25 GH/s = 120 (not 20) boards.  420 BTC  / 3.5 BTC = 120 (not 20) boards.

The one problem I have with this analysis is that is it is completely from hindsight. No one had even heard of ASICMiner back in August 2012 to make a choice. He wasn't even a blip on the radar. This kind of math is somewhat useful but not helpful.

[Syke]

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.

The funny thing is they said the same things about the 65nm product. Honest Abe, the SC line will be blah blah blah. We know how that turned out.

[gmaxwell]

Oh woe woe is me:  I bought batch 1 avalon and paid about 110 BTC for only 60GH/s... if only I'd waited and bought asicminer blades! I could have saved 80%! ... and lost a lot of coin.

Pricing this out in Bitcoin is misguided. In a counterfactual world the BTC exchange rate could have tanked over the same time.  If you want to speculate on BTC, fine enough, but thats no reason to slam BFL— there are plenty of real reasons for that.

[donch]

If you want to speculate on BTC, fine enough, but thats no reason to slam BFL— there are plenty of real reasons for that.

I'd like to slam BFL for terrible communications. Everyday I have to go to these pages:

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/blogs/

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/activity.php

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=8198;sa=showPosts


And filter through endless tirades of misinformation and babble/drivel. Rarely to discover any facts which give me any indication of when and if I'll ever receive my Single or, for that matter, recoup any of the money I invested nearly a year ago.

Contrast this with:

https://www.kncminer.com/news

Where I receive clear, un-opinionated facts and information which reassure me and help me prepare for delivery of my Jupiter. Given what I know now, the only emotion that I have is regret for listening to all the bullish hype and over-promising which was the signature of BFL's presence on this forum in September and October last year.

Josh, I mean this nicely, but can you please consider stopping picking fights with everyone on this forum who makes accusations and concentrate on providing clear information to your customers, like me.

Cheers,
Donovan.

[xstr8guy]

You can lead a horse to water ...

... but you can't make him drink.  Especially if it's the same ol' stinky, stagnant water you've tried to make him drink hundreds of times before.

The analogy here is there is no water to drink (0 real information about the units that do not even exist except as a picture). Try BFL forums for more information right?

Well, I see we've been split from the Monarch discussion thread, lol.

And in response to your point... You don't think it's reasonble for me to respond in a thread on this forum specifically about the Monarch and have a discussion about the Monarch?  That is utterly ridiculous!

[DeathAndTaxes]

Well ASICMiner just gave mini rig buyers a punch in the gut.  

Buy from BFL in August 2012. 1x mini-rig 1.5 TH/s @ 3000 BTC
Buy from ASICMiner in August 2013.  120x Eruptor Blades 1.5 TH/s @ 420 BTC
So buy from ASICMiner a year later, no pre-order stress, product will ship in days, spend 86% less, get the same hashing power and receive it sooner.

Things move fast in the mining world so specs only matter if the company can deliver as advertised when advertised.  Those that trusted BFL @ 65nm paid the price, now they want to tell you 28nm will be different.

on edit: Fixed a typo 120 boards not 20.  The typo seems obvious to me.  1,500 GH/s / 1.25 GH/s = 120 (not 20) boards.  420 BTC  / 3.5 BTC = 120 (not 20) boards.

The one problem I have with this analysis is that is it is completely from hindsight. No one had even heard of ASICMiner back in August 2012 to make a choice. He wasn't even a blip on the radar. This kind of math is somewhat useful but not helpful.

The larger point is that ASICMiner wouldn't be pricing the boards at 420 BTC if they felt they are going to produce 3000 BTC.  It just highlight how much BFL's failure to deliver has cost those that trusted the company.  Nobody paid 3,000 BTC for a mini rig because they believed that it would only produce 500 BTC.  They did so because they felt the rig would produce >3000 BTC in revenue.  It would have if BFL had "only" been 6 months late.  

You may ask why is this relevant?  Well if BFL wasn't offering any new products it would be moot.  Maybe just a sad irony.  However today BFL IS offering a "new and improved" product for ~40 BTC and saying "trust us" we will deliver on time.  If they don't buyers will lose again and who knows maybe months before they actually deliver someone will offer an equivalent product with immediate delivery for 6 BTC.

[Bicknellski]

Right on the money Death...

Nice thread by the way.

[Cablez]

I don't disagree with you on any one point. I am one of the many trapped in the web. It is just painful to read.

Here is a question. When is $30000 not $30000?  When its invested in BFL.  No refund, no equivalent BTC mined from late hardware. Just more promises of 'NEW' just around the corner.

[Jutarul]

cross-post because the posts were moved:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276692.msg3029775#msg3029775

In short: everyone who tries to convince you that pricing mining hardware in USD instead of bitcoin is proper, is either misguided or tries to deceive you. Caveat emptor. What matters is the amount of bitcoin equivalent you spent at the time of purchase.

Really, so you're claiming that 20 * 13 = 1500?  Wow...

the typo is irrelevant for the conclusion. It didn't lead to vastly false numbers.

But lets go back to the USD assessment.  The only way your figures work out is if you have 100% prediction ability or you use hindsight, neither of which are considered acceptable investing methodologies.  

No. An investment into bitcoin mining is a way to buy future bitcoins at current market price. Buyers of the August 2012 minirig bought the prospect of earning future bitcoins (>3000BTC) by spending bitcoins (3000BTC). The fact that they may have spent USD is irrelevant, because it is a different savings vehicle and looking at BTC/USD is only relevant for overhead costs (rent,electricity) which are not priced in bitcoin.
Due to delivery failures that prospect has shrunk to less than the bitcoins spent for buyers who haven't received any hardware to date. On top of that, buyers of ASICMINER now have the alternative to spent 420 BTC on an equivalent amount of hashing power - and that's where the profit loss becomes apparent, because hardware on hand is usually sold around prices similar to the expected ROI.

Once again, your entire premise is flawed.  If you (or anyone) were so good at predicting the bitcoin price back then, why are you not a multi-billionaire?  If you knew BTC was going to go up, especially as much as it did, why were you not mortgaging the house, selling your mother and pimping out your cats and dogs to buy BTC?  You'd be an @#$%@% idiot not to... yet you didn't, why?  

Hindsight investing is great, except it's a bunch of shit, which is why comparing the price in BTC of anything in August 2012 to something in 2013 is a bunch of shit.

I understand that you would like to discredit the validity of DeathAndTaxes' assessment. However, this is not hindsight investing. That is market forces at play. Would the USD/BTC be $10/BTC right now, the eruptor blade would still cost 420 BTC, because that's what the expected ROI is in terms of future bitcoins.

I urge you, please don't try to misguide new people coming into the mining game by playing on their insufficient understanding between the relationship of the exchange rates vs. the viability of mining investments. Your company has done enough harm to the mining community by trapping/destroying a vast amount of capital with unfulfilled promises.

ADDENDUM: topic was moved: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283286.msg3029211#msg3029211

[xstr8guy]

The larger point is that ASICMiner wouldn't be pricing the boards at 420 BTC if they felt they are going to produce 3000 BTC.  It just highlight how much BFL failure to deliver has cost those that trusted the company.  Nobody paid 3,000 BTC for a mini rig because they believed that it would only produce 500 BTC.  They did so because they felt the rig would produce >3000 BTC in revenue.  It would have if BFL had "only" been 6 months late. 

You may ask why is this relevant?  Well because today BFL is offering a "new and improved" product for ~40 BTC and saying "trust us" we will deliver on time.  If they don't buyers will lose again and who knows months before they deliver someone else will offer a competing product for 6 BTC.

You do know there are some people hashing away with Mini-rigs right now?  I don't think they are complaining too much.  They're too busy trying to stash their piles bitcoins somewhere safe, lol.

And yes, I do know there are many others still waiting.  But sometimes the risk is worth the reward.  Other times... not so much.  But you certainly won't gain anything if you don't take some risk.  And you can minimize risk by hedging (splitting orders between different ASIC vendors and/or buying BTC) and doing research.

[Bicknellski]

I don't disagree with you on any one point. I am one of the many trapped in the web. It is just painful to read.

Here is a question. When is $30000 not $30000?  When its invested in BFL.  No refund, no equivalent BTC mined from late hardware. Just more promises of 'NEW' just around the corner.

This is pretty much a new twist on the ole Bait and Switch with the Monarch and really I can't see why there is no reaction from the forums owner on this... it is fraud and really you shouldn't be taking any advertising dollars from people doing that.

Bait-and-switch is a form of fraud used in retail sales but also employed in other contexts. First, customers are "baited" by merchants' advertising products or services at a low price, but when customers visit the store, they discover that the advertised goods are not available, or the customers are pressured by sales people to consider similar, but higher priced items ("switching").