Next difficulty ~4,000,000,000? Tracking difficulty since 145,000,000.

[Dabs]

Guards have salaries to be paid. They also need to sleep, go home, live their lives after their shifts. Arming them requires training, firearms, paperworks, documentation, accounting, offices, insurance, taxes, etc.

Miners just need a little bit of security, cooling, and electricity.

[Miz4r]

And how much time, energy and wealth do you think is wasted guarding banks, ATMs and gold reserves? Orders of magnitude more than it would take to secure the bitcoin network.

So guarding ATMs, banks and gold reserves consumes 10x more electricity than the US produces? Did you even read what you quoted?

And securing the bitcoin network takes 10x more electricity than the US produces? You've pulled that out of your ass as well and I call bullshit on that one.

[Puppet]

And how much time, energy and wealth do you think is wasted guarding banks, ATMs and gold reserves? Orders of magnitude more than it would take to secure the bitcoin network.

So guarding ATMs, banks and gold reserves consumes 10x more electricity than the US produces? Did you even read what you quoted?

And securing the bitcoin network takes 10x more electricity than the US produces? You've pulled that out of your ass as well and I call bullshit on that one.

He said "orders of magnitude more" than bitcoin. I was gentle and went with 1 order of magnitude. Here is the math I pulled out of my ass to calculate power consumption of a bitcoin network that replaced the dollar:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=297317.msg3338903#msg3338903

[erk]

And securing the bitcoin network takes 10x more electricity than the US produces? You've pulled that out of your ass as well and I call bullshit on that one.

You obviously don't comprehend what other people write very well, I understood what he was saying, it's was an extrapolation as to the energy consumption that would occur if Bitcoin was to replace USD and miners kept on adding gear as they do now until it was no longer profitable due to energy costs. It's not very hard to calculate if you know the final value of Bitcoin in terms of USD and the typical electricity price, not rocket science. Of course it 's unlikely to happen as banks wouldn't stand for it, but it does emphasize the absurd potential energy usage which is directly proportional to any rise in the BTC/USD exchange rate.


Next diff change in 249 blocks looks like it might be over 260mill.

[JimiQ84]

And how much time, energy and wealth do you think is wasted guarding banks, ATMs and gold reserves? Orders of magnitude more than it would take to secure the bitcoin network.

So guarding ATMs, banks and gold reserves consumes 10x more electricity than the US produces? Did you even read what you quoted?

And securing the bitcoin network takes 10x more electricity than the US produces? You've pulled that out of your ass as well and I call bullshit on that one.

He said "orders of magnitude more" than bitcoin. I was gentle and went with 1 order of magnitude. Here is the math I pulled out of my ass to calculate power consumption of a bitcoin network that replaced the dollar:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=297317.msg3338903#msg3338903

that calculation is only viable for ~3 years. Than there will be only ~650k bitcoins per year mined (+ fees). And after another 3-4 years it will halve again. I maybe pessimistic, but I don't think bitcoin will reach something like $500k per coin in that time.

[Puppet]

that calculation is only viable for ~3 years. Than there will be only ~650k bitcoins per year mined (+ fees). And after another 3-4 years it will halve again.

The block reward will halve, but just try to imagine transaction fees if bitcoin were as common as fiat is today.
Either way, even if we ignore tx fees and reward halving will cut down the number I came up with by a factor 8x in 2025, thats still a completely preposterous amount of electricity.

[JimiQ84]

that calculation is only viable for ~3 years. Than there will be only ~650k bitcoins per year mined (+ fees). And after another 3-4 years it will halve again.

The block reward will halve, but just try to imagine transaction fees if bitcoin were as common as fiat is today.
Either way, even if we ignore tx fees and reward halving will cut down the number I came up with by a factor 8x in 2025, thats still a completely preposterous amount of electricity.

And what about inflation of electricity price? You think it will be still $0.15/kWH?

Also, banking sector is now using millions of human workforce, that doesn't count as energy? Every employee needs to heat his/her water, home, cook his/her meal... Bitcoin always comes out as cheaper energy wise, because it's cheaper money wise.

[Puppet]

And what about inflation of electricity price? You think it will be still $0.15/kWH?

Clearly if electricity demand for bitcoin mining would rival 100% of all available electricity production, prices wont stay flat. But seriously, you couldnt possibly defend bitcoins energy consumption on the basis that it would consume so unbelievably much, that prices will skyrocket?

Also, banking sector is now using millions of human workforce, that doesn't count as energy? Every employee needs to heat his/her water, home, cook his/her meal...

Right, so if bitcoin replaced fiat, we could... kill those people?

[erk]

And what about inflation of electricity price? You think it will be still $0.15/kWH?

Also, banking sector is now using millions of human workforce, that doesn't count as energy? Every employee needs to heat his/her water, home, cook his/her meal... Bitcoin always comes out as cheaper energy wise, because it's cheaper money wise.

The banking sector doesn't cease to exist because a currency changes. It will still consume whatever it does.

[JimiQ84]

And what about inflation of electricity price? You think it will be still $0.15/kWH?

Clearly if electricity demand for bitcoin mining would rival 100% of all available electricity production, prices wont stay flat. But seriously, you couldnt possibly defend bitcoins energy consumption on the basis that it would consume so unbelievably much, that prices will skyrocket?

Also, banking sector is now using millions of human workforce, that doesn't count as energy? Every employee needs to heat his/her water, home, cook his/her meal...

Right, so if bitcoin replaced fiat, we could... kill those people?

I didn't mean electricity inflation because of bitcoin. Just plain and simple inflation as we've seen past 100 years. China uses more and more energy...

We wouldn't kill those people, they will do something more efficient than banking sector. Something which will have more added value with less consumed energy

[Nemo1024]

267.731.249 just now.

Next? I'd guess ~500.000.000

[Puppet]

267.731.249 just now.

Next? I'd guess ~500.000.000

Currently deployed hashrate is good for 350M (~2.5PH),
KnC is going to add another 500TH to that in the next few days, soon enough to count at 100%
Asicminer is supposed to bring 500TH online by the end of this month. NOt sure if that will be gradual and when it will start, lets count that for 25%
Bitfury and its resellers will likely continue to add at least another 100TH, as might BFL and others (avalon, btcgarden,..), Total say 250TH counted for 50% if deployed at a constant rate over the period

2500+500 +125+125= 3250 TH average hashrate for the next difficulty window (which  would end closer to 4000 TH)

=> 455M difficulty.

[baritus]

Low end didn't work for me.. So let's try something different.

My guess: 390M next difficulty

[erk]

420mill next.

[EasyQuest]

Between 355,413,233 to 468,529,685

Based on calculations from 32% increase to the extreme 75% increase.

[Puppet]

Have you looked at a chart since last diffchange? There's right around 0% chance of <450M.

That chart is misleading, the axis dont line up. Current network speed is ~2.5PH, which corresponds to a difficulty of 350M. To get to 450M the hashrate will have to increase by ~700TH on average over the period. If we assume linear deployement of that new hashrate, that means ~1.5 TH would need to be added to get to 450M. We may well exceed that, but its certainly not impossible we will stay below that.

Well, you seem to have deleted your post, so maybe you figured that out yourself

[hulk]

I am guessing another 40% increment which is 375 million. Because KNCminer still have another half to ship

[Batshit]

We'll see a leveling at ~1.2-1.5 B difficulty around Dec/Jan according to my calculations.  Call me crazy, then check this post Jan/Feb against the charts.

[erk]

I am guessing another 40% increment which is 375 million. Because KNCminer still have another half to ship

And then the start on their November batch.

[hulk]

I am guessing another 40% increment which is 375 million. Because KNCminer still have another half to ship

And then the start on their November batch.

Yup, miners are losing badly.... really...