Next difficulty ~4,000,000,000? Tracking difficulty since 145,000,000.

[ralree]

We'll see a leveling at ~1.2-1.5 B difficulty around Dec/Jan according to my calculations.  Call me crazy, then check this post Jan/Feb against the charts.

Heh I get it .. batshit crazy .. anyway, I mostly agree with this.  Anything from this to 1B in Jan in possible, depending on every factor in the book.

[Puppet]

We will probably reach 1B difficulty by the end of November and if you think difficulty will level off in january I have a bridge to sell.
BFL may not have anything on 28nm by then, but they will eventually. Cointerra and coincraft will only just have gotten started, and I dont think KnC and Hashfast (not too mention Bitfury, next gen avalon, asicminer and other smaller players like btgarden, black arrow, activeminer,..) will have stopped.

[crazy_rabbit]

I am guessing another 40% increment which is 375 million. Because KNCminer still have another half to ship

And then the start on their November batch.

Yup, miners are losing badly.... really...

Well if Bitcoin's price keeps rising, they could work out okay.

[Puppet]

Well if Bitcoin's price keeps rising, they could work out okay.

No they couldnt. The bitcoins they spent on the mining hardware will still be a loss. And dont give me that "but they paid in dollar" crap.
THe rising price is also inviting even more preorders, making the mid term prospects even worse.

Lastly, bitcoin is going up quite nicely, but hashrate is now growing by 4-5% per day. That means its currently quadrupling each month. And HF hasnt even begun.
NO way btc/$ is going to keep up with that.

For a taste of things to come:
Estimated Next Difficulty:   412,053,448 (+53.91%)

And that will likely prove to be an underestimation.

[GodfatherBond]

Im wodering how this will go... obviously Jan is 1500-2000 MM diff and very shortly by end of Q1 / 2014 weŕe at 5000 diff, but from that to 10.000 MM means again doubling the whole network from around 35THPH to 70THPH... how long this will take!?

[Puppet]

Im wodering how this will go... obviously Jan is 1500-2000 MM diff and very shortly by end of Q1 / 2014 weŕe at 5000 diff, but from that to 10.000 MM means again doubling the whole network from around 35TH to 70TH... how long this will take!?

Hard to say how long it will take, much will depend on how fast these companies can produce and ship, but its relatively straightforward to calculate roughly where it will end:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=295270.0

[baritus]

I was right for once on the guess..  

390,928,788

[Nemo1024]

Yes, that was spot on! I guess your next estimate is pretty correct as well.

Though KnC have slowed down in their deployment and are ignoring their hosted customers, who should have had their units deployed after the 11th of October.

[smoothie]

My guess is 530,000,000

[EasyQuest]

530,000,000 to 680,000,000  (35% to 75% Increase)

[fattypig]

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   390,928,787
Estimated Next Difficulty:   546,924,561 (+39.90%)

Really does have an difficulty increment of 40% per 11 days. This is getting worst..

[jamesc760]

Bitcoin DIFFICULTY goes to Da Moon!

[Puppet]

KnC should be done shipping batch 1, HF wont be ready for their first batch.
Im sure some KnC machines are still in transit, and difficulty still lags the network hashrate, but all in all, the next 2 difficulty adjustments will likely be rather modest compared to the months that will follow.

[Nemo1024]

KnC should be done shipping batch 1, HF wont be ready for their first batch.
Im sure some KnC machines are still in transit, and difficulty still lags the network hashrate, but all in all, the next 2 difficulty adjustments will likely be rather modest compared to the months that will follow.

Yes, and quite a few hosted units that they just jumped over and have started producing yet.

[kendog77]

KnC should be done shipping batch 1, HF wont be ready for their first batch.
Im sure some KnC machines are still in transit, and difficulty still lags the network hashrate, but all in all, the next 2 difficulty adjustments will likely be rather modest compared to the months that will follow.

BitFury is still doing major damage to the difficulty. I doubt the difficulty increases will slow down much this year. Knc will start shipping batch 2 in mid November.

[waltermot321]

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   390,928,787
Estimated Next Difficulty:   547,192,271 (+39.97%)
Adjust time:   After 1580 Blocks, About 9.5 days
Hashrate(?):   3,473,025 GH/s

I give up, the difficulty have been increase at about 40% for 3 consecutive time. You guys should be happy that I reduced the increment by 0.00001%

[mgio]

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   390,928,787
Estimated Next Difficulty:   547,192,271 (+39.97%)
Adjust time:   After 1580 Blocks, About 9.5 days
Hashrate(?):   3,473,025 GH/s

I give up, the difficulty have been increase at about 40% for 3 consecutive time. You guys should be happy that I reduced the increment by 0.00001%

That site has been overestimating. Remember last round they were showing difficulty at way over 400 million and we are only at 390 million.

This site http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate  estimates only 463 million. This number is always a little low and gradually rises throughout the round, but this time it has actually been dropping!

http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ only shows 432 million.

My guess is that difficulty will only be in high 400 millions, maybe 480 or 490 or so.

[BitcoinHeroes]

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   390,928,787
Estimated Next Difficulty:   547,192,271 (+39.97%)
Adjust time:   After 1580 Blocks, About 9.5 days
Hashrate(?):   3,473,025 GH/s

I give up, the difficulty have been increase at about 40% for 3 consecutive time. You guys should be happy that I reduced the increment by 0.00001%

That site has been overestimating. Remember last round they were showing difficulty at way over 400 million and we are only at 390 million.

This site http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate  estimates only 463 million. This number is always a little low and gradually rises throughout the round, but this time it has actually been dropping!

http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ only shows 432 million.

My guess is that difficulty will only be in high 400 millions, maybe 480 or 490 or so.

But their estimate is still close tho, just off by about 10 million which is few %.

[scambutterflylabs]

Around 537,667,752 (+37.54%) / estimate http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

[TheDragonSlayer]

Around 537,667,752 (+37.54%) / estimate http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Another big hike in-coming, didn't have any miner in hand