ScaryHash
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January 26, 2014, 10:17:28 PM |
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Cool !
I was a little surprised by the new difficulty too. I thought it would be higher.
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palawan
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January 27, 2014, 12:09:11 AM |
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Bitmaintech (Antminer hardware/manufacturer) has a post that got me thinking (dangerous). It broke down the risk/reward of btc mining from the "big" miners' point of view. R&D, labor hours, hardware investments, power costs, infrastructure costs, and after all of that, what's left? Bitmaintech estimates percentages in the teens. At what risk? If btc price goes down, no profits, but losses.
I know everyone says don't buy any miner now as it will never make the return on investment, but the big players are also in the same predicament as the hobby miners. Sure, the manufacturers are going to keep producing faster and faster miners, but the jig is up. Hardware vendors now have to deliver or no one's buying their BS anymore. Lower prices for better hardware same thing that happened with PC's/laptops. And how many new miners will be coming in when they are intimidated by the message "the difficulty is so high" and diminishing returns...
So maybe the difficulty will stop shooting up... Unless, of course, the btc price shoots up again.
I'm mining as a hobby. Learning to tinker with specialized hardware and software. It's a lot of fun for a tech-nerd like me. Maybe I get my roi, also.
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halu
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Sonny
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January 27, 2014, 01:26:44 PM |
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Bitcoin Difficulty: 2,193,847,870 Estimated Next Difficulty: 2,609,566,119 (+18.95%) Adjust time: After 1535 Blocks, About 9.8 days http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyLet's see how accurate this estimation will be. ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
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Shogen
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January 28, 2014, 04:40:05 AM |
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Bitcoin Difficulty: 2,193,847,870 Estimated Next Difficulty: 2,609,566,119 (+18.95%) Adjust time: After 1535 Blocks, About 9.8 days http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyLet's see how accurate this estimation will be. ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Keep growing exponetially ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
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Yuki1988
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January 28, 2014, 02:29:41 PM |
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Bitcoin Difficulty: 2,193,847,870 Estimated Next Difficulty: 2,597,587,410 (+18.40%) Adjust time: After 1364 Blocks, About 8.6 days The estimated next difficulity is becoming lower and lower. ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
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BuildTheFuture
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
January 28, 2014, 06:31:43 PM |
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Shhhh, quiet, you're going to jinx it. ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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Trongersoll
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January 29, 2014, 10:16:14 PM |
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Just a reminder, all the sites that estimate the next difficulty are really inaccurate for days after a difficulty increase. about 4 days (or less) before the next increase they are pretty good.
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baritus (OP)
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February 05, 2014, 01:40:25 PM |
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I'm guessing 3B diff for next.
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Digitalcoin - Sha256, Scrypt, x11 Mining - Multi-algorithm & One Click Masternodes - Founded in 2013
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frank754
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February 06, 2014, 12:31:11 AM |
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3,191,424,356 (+21.74%) Adjust time: After 1906 Blocks, About 12.3 days
This is what bitcoinwisdom is saying right now... no more ROI on many of the miners out there except the biggest.
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Zangy
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February 06, 2014, 07:06:01 AM |
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3,191,424,356 (+21.74%) Adjust time: After 1906 Blocks, About 12.3 days
This is what bitcoinwisdom is saying right now... no more ROI on many of the miners out there except the biggest.
Time to sell all the mining hardware to the ignorant many (like me) for vastly over priced £££ on ebay. Shame, the human race is self destructive in its greed
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Its About Sharing
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Antifragile
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February 06, 2014, 08:37:16 AM |
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3,191,424,356 (+21.74%) Adjust time: After 1906 Blocks, About 12.3 days
This is what bitcoinwisdom is saying right now... no more ROI on many of the miners out there except the biggest.
Time to sell all the mining hardware to the ignorant many (like me) for vastly over priced £££ on ebay. Shame, the human race is self destructive in its greed Not sure this is greed. If one can make more by merely buying btc's than how can you call someone taking a huge chance on a miner Greedy? If anything it is a huge gamble but rather appears to be both a hobby and reinvestment, not to mention a way to get btc's in some tough countries.
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BTC = Black Swan. BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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Sonny
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 10, 2014, 07:28:41 AM |
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3,191,424,356 (+21.74%) Adjust time: After 1906 Blocks, About 12.3 days
This is what bitcoinwisdom is saying right now... no more ROI on many of the miners out there except the biggest.
Time to sell all the mining hardware to the ignorant many (like me) for vastly over priced £££ on ebay. I am just sad to see there are always newbies buying overpriced hardware with no idea they can never get their investment back...not enough close....
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Trongersoll
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February 10, 2014, 09:18:38 PM Last edit: February 19, 2014, 06:03:31 PM by Trongersoll |
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I am just sad to see there are always newbies buying overpriced hardware with no idea they can never get their investment back...not enough close....
Funny, ever since I started buying mining hardware in May, I have seen people make this statement. And yet, I've made US$5000 over my US$15,000 investment. I'm glad that people are saddened that people buy hardware, otherwise there would be that many more people pushing the difficulty up.
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af_newbie
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February 11, 2014, 12:09:16 AM |
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How accurate would you say that is?
Past predictions: Guess Actual 145M - 148M 170M - 189M 215M - 267.7M 390M - 390.9M 510M - 510.9M 670M - 609.4M 720M - 707.4M 799M - 902.3M 1.1B - 1.18B 1.38B - 1.41B 1.65B - 1.789B 2B - 2.19B 2.6B - 2.61B 3B - N/A
Not bad. It will probably be +520M (20%) to 780M (30%) so 3.2B to 3.4B. It is amazing nevertheless. Soon all home heating will be done with bitcoin mining rigs :-)
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smoothie
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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
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February 17, 2014, 02:02:23 AM |
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So in 5 months... 3,000,000,000 / 145,000,000 = 20.68965 <---- rough calc. Difficulty went up more than 20 times. ![Shocked](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/shocked.gif)
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| . ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM My PGP fingerprint is A764D833. History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ . LEALANA BITCOIN GRIM REAPER SILVER COINS. |
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Chemistry1988
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February 17, 2014, 02:05:46 AM |
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It turns out to be 3,129,573,175 (19.39% increase)
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skuser
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February 19, 2014, 11:08:05 AM |
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Nice. I expect next difficulty to cross 4B
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AndrewGucci
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February 19, 2014, 02:05:14 PM |
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I wonder when the price will follow ? And what is the role of mtgox "problems" in that ?
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navigator
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February 19, 2014, 05:48:04 PM |
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Price won't follow because btc mining is currently too profitable. Mining profitability always trends towards barely profitable. Right now an antminer cost me .65 cents/day in electric and makes a lil over $20/day. Even after I expect ROI, it will still probably make ~$10/day and cost the same.
Most likely we will eventually reach a point that is similar to the profitability that gpu rigs were getting right before asic's arrived. I've noticed a low term trend of everyone expecting a ROI on whatever hardware within 3-6 months. If it falls below 1 month to ROI, you see everyone flourish to buy hardware, over 5 months or so and people stop buying.
And who is to say you should make money btc mining anyway? Satoshi never said he created bitcoin so home users can get rich mining. Why do so many users expect profit? They talk as if bitcoin owes them, when it's them that owes bitcoin.
I actually look forward to the day when the home user no longer makes money mining bitcoin because that's not why it was made.
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baritus (OP)
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February 25, 2014, 02:46:45 AM |
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3.75B next?
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Digitalcoin - Sha256, Scrypt, x11 Mining - Multi-algorithm & One Click Masternodes - Founded in 2013
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