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Author Topic: Will The Bitcoin Investment Trust affect the price?  (Read 16561 times)
adamstgBit
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September 27, 2013, 08:49:42 PM
 #201

I would much rather we see the runup I have anticipated as a (more or less) repeat of 2012, to finally price in the halving.

But if we keep going at this rate, it won't happen... Not any time soon. Blow out too early and we have to wait.

That is what I am afraid will happen.

so the announcement this week was priced in long ago
but the halving which everyone was aware of since day 1 is not.

 i don't get it.

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SgtSpike
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September 27, 2013, 09:37:22 PM
 #202

I would much rather we see the runup I have anticipated as a (more or less) repeat of 2012, to finally price in the halving.

But if we keep going at this rate, it won't happen... Not any time soon. Blow out too early and we have to wait.

That is what I am afraid will happen.

so the announcement this week was priced in long ago
but the halving which everyone was aware of since day 1 is not.

 i don't get it.

It means that we would be going into an (unsustainable) positive feedback.
I think it's more of a question why the halving wouldn't be already priced in.
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September 27, 2013, 09:38:34 PM
 #203

I would much rather we see the runup I have anticipated as a (more or less) repeat of 2012, to finally price in the halving.

But if we keep going at this rate, it won't happen... Not any time soon. Blow out too early and we have to wait.

That is what I am afraid will happen.

so the announcement this week was priced in long ago
but the halving which everyone was aware of since day 1 is not.

 i don't get it.

It means that we would be going into an (unsustainable) positive feedback.
I think it's more of a question why the halving wouldn't be already priced in.

I kinda believe it was ...

Herp
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September 27, 2013, 10:28:31 PM
 #204

I would much rather we see the runup I have anticipated as a (more or less) repeat of 2012, to finally price in the halving.

But if we keep going at this rate, it won't happen... Not any time soon. Blow out too early and we have to wait.

That is what I am afraid will happen.

so the announcement this week was priced in long ago
but the halving which everyone was aware of since day 1 is not.

 i don't get it.

It means that we would be going into an (unsustainable) positive feedback.
I think it's more of a question why the halving wouldn't be already priced in.

I kinda believe it was ...

It is a matter of belief. The pullback at $266 destroyed your belief in a higher price in the shorter term, even if it did not destroy the belief in a higher price in the longer term. It was caused by a convergence of the short term expectation of price for the broader population of market participants. That happens where positive momentum meets the limit of a test of price. Lower momentum is supportive of a lower price expectation, as long as price does not outgrow momentum too fast a higher price is achievable. If price now outgrows momentum that is essentially flat on the longer term it won't peak as high, and it will probably fall lower then it would have if growth kept pace with the longer term momentum. We have seen this kind of hysteresis loop over and over again. It should be pretty clear by now what will happen. The reason the $266 peak went as high as it did was due to price keeping pace with momentum for as long as it did, this builds the belief in value. If price growth had managed to stay in check it would have grown much higher in my estimation, most likely on the order of $32^2. And I think it still can... That is, if we can avoid another blowout too soon.
So what's the deal with those addresses in your sig? For some btc you will stfu and/or dance like a monkey to tune of choice? Can you please clarify?


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SgtSpike
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September 27, 2013, 10:48:53 PM
 #205

I would much rather we see the runup I have anticipated as a (more or less) repeat of 2012, to finally price in the halving.

But if we keep going at this rate, it won't happen... Not any time soon. Blow out too early and we have to wait.

That is what I am afraid will happen.

so the announcement this week was priced in long ago
but the halving which everyone was aware of since day 1 is not.

 i don't get it.

It means that we would be going into an (unsustainable) positive feedback.
I think it's more of a question why the halving wouldn't be already priced in.

I kinda believe it was ...

It is a matter of belief. The pullback at $266 destroyed your belief in a higher price in the shorter term, even if it did not destroy the belief in a higher price in the longer term. It was caused by a convergence of the short term expectation of price for the broader population of market participants. That happens where positive momentum meets the limit of a test of price. Lower momentum is supportive of a lower price expectation, as long as price does not outgrow momentum too fast a higher price is achievable. If price now outgrows momentum that is essentially flat on the longer term it won't peak as high, and it will probably fall lower then it would have if growth kept pace with the longer term momentum. We have seen this kind of hysteresis loop over and over again. It should be pretty clear by now what will happen. The reason the $266 peak went as high as it did was due to price keeping pace with momentum for as long as it did, this builds the belief in value. If price growth had managed to stay in check it would have grown much higher in my estimation, most likely on the order of $32^2. And I think it still can... That is, if we can avoid another blowout too soon.
Everyone knows the Bitcoin halving will happen; therefore, it is priced in.
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September 27, 2013, 11:13:34 PM
 #206

I would much rather we see the runup I have anticipated as a (more or less) repeat of 2012, to finally price in the halving.

But if we keep going at this rate, it won't happen... Not any time soon. Blow out too early and we have to wait.

That is what I am afraid will happen.

so the announcement this week was priced in long ago
but the halving which everyone was aware of since day 1 is not.

 i don't get it.

It means that we would be going into an (unsustainable) positive feedback.
I think it's more of a question why the halving wouldn't be already priced in.

I kinda believe it was ...

It is a matter of belief. The pullback at $266 destroyed your belief in a higher price in the shorter term, even if it did not destroy the belief in a higher price in the longer term. It was caused by a convergence of the short term expectation of price for the broader population of market participants. That happens where positive momentum meets the limit of a test of price. Lower momentum is supportive of a lower price expectation, as long as price does not outgrow momentum too fast a higher price is achievable. If price now outgrows momentum that is essentially flat on the longer term it won't peak as high, and it will probably fall lower then it would have if growth kept pace with the longer term momentum. We have seen this kind of hysteresis loop over and over again. It should be pretty clear by now what will happen. The reason the $266 peak went as high as it did was due to price keeping pace with momentum for as long as it did, this builds the belief in value. If price growth had managed to stay in check it would have grown much higher in my estimation, most likely on the order of $32^2. And I think it still can... That is, if we can avoid another blowout too soon.
So what's the deal with those addresses in your sig? For some btc you will stfu and/or dance like a monkey to tune of choice? Can you please clarify?

Lol, I hadn't noticed that.

Chodpaba, does your address really end in STFU?
cypherdoc
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September 27, 2013, 11:15:00 PM
 #207

Everyone knows the Bitcoin halving will happen; therefore, it is priced in.

Everyone knows about the event, what they don't know is how that event affects the exchange rate.

Last December's halving has been long priced in.

It's the SM which has not.
thoughtfan
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September 27, 2013, 11:50:09 PM
 #208

Price impact: Dramatically up

But not right away. Consider what will happen:

1) It will take X days, weeks, or months for the initial few million $ worth to be bought up. Those purchases have no effect on the exchange price, or maybe even a mild negative effect if some who were buying coins steadily via the exchanges switch over to BIT.

2) Once the initial few million in seed is bought up, Second Market will start to purchase more, maybe $5-10 million worth. If they do part or all of this on an exchange, the price impact will of course be strongly positive. However, given how many contacts they have for private placement, they'll likely acquire part or all of those coins from dark, non-exchange sources. If they purchase very few of those coins on exchanges, the immediate price impact will be negligible, but the medium-term effect will be dramatic.  

The reason why is a bit subtle but very real: Insofar as the people Second Market buys the coins from would have sold those coins on exchanges if it weren't for SM giving them the wonderful opportunity to sell without slippage, that much less BTC is going to be available on the exchanges. The same amount of money chasing fewer BTC means a higher price per coin. But there will be a time delay, perhaps days or weeks, maybe in some cases months.

The fun part is that those who understand the time delay get to make money off those who are fooled by the time delay. Translation: Buy before the price rises and get in on the ground floor of the next stage of the bitcoin rocket.

if i were in charge of purchasing the coins for the trust i would make sure to buy a healthy part at the exchanges to drive up price. that will make BIT look even more attractive since performace inreases with price.

I am hoping those in charge of purchasing coins for the trust would have a longer-view than that and will buy as cheaply as they can for as long as they can providing demand for the BIT continues.  If they are as bullish about bitcoin as they appear to be I guess they will share my belief that there is no need to push the price up.  It is better for their customers longer-term to have acquired more cheaper if they are planning on holding long-term.  The longer these low prices continue the higher the proportion of the bitcoins in existence the trust will have acquired.*

Also, buying on exchange with the purpose of artificially pushing up the price when they could buy cheaper is ridiculously short-term.  If those from whom they could have bought cheaper then go to the exchange it will bring the price back down.  That is not good for prospective investor confidence.

* Personally I would prefer a higher proportion of these low-priced coins in the hands of the creative and the innovative as opposed to professional wealth accumulators.  I have let all the good people I know know and if they've decided not to participate that's their lookout.  However, I digress... Smiley

Please disregard Litecoin and Zcash badges to the left. I have just gathered they are an April fool's joke!
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September 28, 2013, 12:20:00 AM
 #209

I would much rather we see the runup I have anticipated as a (more or less) repeat of 2012, to finally price in the halving.

But if we keep going at this rate, it won't happen... Not any time soon. Blow out too early and we have to wait.

That is what I am afraid will happen.

so the announcement this week was priced in long ago
but the halving which everyone was aware of since day 1 is not.

 i don't get it.

It means that we would be going into an (unsustainable) positive feedback.
I think it's more of a question why the halving wouldn't be already priced in.

I kinda believe it was ...

It is a matter of belief. The pullback at $266 destroyed your belief in a higher price in the shorter term, even if it did not destroy the belief in a higher price in the longer term. It was caused by a convergence of the short term expectation of price for the broader population of market participants. That happens where positive momentum meets the limit of a test of price. Lower momentum is supportive of a lower price expectation, as long as price does not outgrow momentum too fast a higher price is achievable. If price now outgrows momentum that is essentially flat on the longer term it won't peak as high, and it will probably fall lower then it would have if growth kept pace with the longer term momentum. We have seen this kind of hysteresis loop over and over again. It should be pretty clear by now what will happen. The reason the $266 peak went as high as it did was due to price keeping pace with momentum for as long as it did, this builds the belief in value. If price growth had managed to stay in check it would have grown much higher in my estimation, most likely on the order of $32^2. And I think it still can... That is, if we can avoid another blowout too soon.
So what's the deal with those addresses in your sig? For some btc you will stfu and/or dance like a monkey to tune of choice? Can you please clarify?

Lol, I hadn't noticed that.

Chodpaba, does your address really end in STFU?

I was hoping the NSA would notice and pay me a lot of coin to stop telling their secrets.

Is that how it works?

oops.  was looking at your sig on my Android and it word wrapped it to look like STFU was part of your address. 

hmmm, maybe i ought to vanitygen that one.
Marbit
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September 28, 2013, 01:03:48 AM
 #210

I would much rather we see the runup I have anticipated as a (more or less) repeat of 2012, to finally price in the halving.

But if we keep going at this rate, it won't happen... Not any time soon. Blow out too early and we have to wait.

That is what I am afraid will happen.

my thoughts exactly.  Undecided
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September 28, 2013, 04:22:39 AM
 #211

Very good news, they will have to buy large amounts of BTC.  I think we see a new high.

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September 28, 2013, 05:03:15 AM
 #212

Priced in..lol

SecondMarket is actively reaching out to HNW investors.

The bitcoin market doesn't have billions sitting on the side lines waiting for tradeable info to "price in" news reports. If investors start saying YES to their offering then SecondMarket will begin taking large chunks of coin off the market. It's not a one time deal..continuous purchasing of coin as more investors step in.

This is a huge development. 
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September 28, 2013, 02:57:43 PM
 #213

Priced in..lol

SecondMarket is actively reaching out to HNW investors.

The bitcoin market doesn't have billions sitting on the side lines waiting for tradeable info to "price in" news reports. If investors start saying YES to their offering then SecondMarket will begin taking large chunks of coin off the market. It's not a one time deal..continuous purchasing of coin as more investors step in.

This is a huge development.  

So you are saying the halving is not

Priced in..lol

i don't even understand this whole not priced in argument.

usually it's a description of a market phenomenon that occurs well prior to an event and then is judged based on price movement or the lack thereof immediately after the event occurs, maybe days if not hours.

here we are 10 mo after the Nov 2012 halving and you're still talking about it...
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September 28, 2013, 03:36:11 PM
 #214

Nothing to do with the topic at hand and most of the "market"  doesn't even realize only 21 mil coins will ever exist.

Not even sure why this is up for discussion.
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September 28, 2013, 03:45:49 PM
 #215

Nothing to do with the topic at hand and most of the "market"  doesn't even realize only 21 mil coins will ever exist.

Not even sure why this is up for discussion.

How will a market with a given, known supply react to a demand driver... Nope, not OT at all..lol
My point is that the market is ever expanding. Most people are clueless on btc and are just now being introduced to it. A fund actively seeking investment by high networth individuals has a greater impact than a known halving by the current btc community.

Less inflation and constant demand will effect the price. This fund and time will bring greater demand from a larger pool of buyers.

I must be missing something if this is a serious discussion and not just a distraction from the topic at hand
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September 28, 2013, 08:07:58 PM
 #216

cover
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September 28, 2013, 09:40:20 PM
 #217

Should be pretty obvious to anyone by now chupacabra is posting nonsense trying to hijack the discussion. He discredited himself from the very start claiming the fund won't buy more coins than the initial seed money. Anyone who replies to his posts is merely giving him more ammo to continue spamming nonsense.


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September 28, 2013, 10:34:36 PM
 #218

Well priced in or not, I think we're one moderately good to really good piece of news away from getting a huge jump($60+) off positive news/hype accumulation.

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September 28, 2013, 11:05:22 PM
 #219

Well priced in or not, I think we're one moderately good to really good piece of news away from getting a huge jump($60+) off positive news/hype accumulation.

"priced in"   Cheesy You can't price in something like this. I'm amazed choupacabra managed to lure some down this ludicrous path. He's a decent manipulator, I'll give him that.

Calling this "priced in" would be the equivalent of sitting on a beach, sipping cocktails, spanking babes when tsunami/tornado is about to hit full force because well, why bother since it was already announced days ago and it's "priced in" as people had the initial scare and moved on. Smiley



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September 29, 2013, 12:18:49 AM
 #220

Well priced in or not, I think we're one moderately good to really good piece of news away from getting a huge jump($60+) off positive news/hype accumulation.

we don't need anymore good news.

the SM is not yet "priced in".
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