Bearish Scenario

[notme]

Yup, Silkroad is like the Hydra of Lerna. One down, two new pop up. Government is going to lose this.

The hydra gets it at the end. Don't you think the FBI will utilize the data they got from the SR sever to go after the merchants there?

What data exactly do you are think they recovered?  Nicknames, product lists, public keys and and country seems like about it.

Was pgp mandatory? If not there are at least some postal codes and consumer addresses.

I have no idea, but if they can handle TOR they can handle pgp, and it would be fucking dumb to not use it.

However, if they do recover addresses of recepients, you can bet your ass they will be added to some surveillance lists.  This will help with investigations in the long run if they can get a large enough sample of TOR drug pirchasers to watch.  However, it will be used for to profiling, which always carries the risk of creating prejudice.

[notme]

I am more interested to know when will the feds sell the confiscated coins, that could have an impact on the market.

I'm more concerned with the 600k coins they haven't have control over (yet). Considering DPR will likely live the rest of his life behind bars, that's a ticket to make pretty damn sure their value never reaches anything significant.

If he has his money stored in brain wallets he can do a lot with that while behind bars.  Unless, of course they catch on and put him in solitary confinement.

[Odalv]

Yup, Silkroad is like the Hydra of Lerna. One down, two new pop up. Government is going to lose this.

The hydra gets it at the end. Don't you think the FBI will utilize the data they got from the SR sever to go after the merchants there?

I'm sure merchants used TOR too, so no DATA about them. (maybe few bitcoin addresses)

[ElectricMucus]

Odalv, yes
notme explained quite well what I am thinking.

I am more interested to know when will the feds sell the confiscated coins, that could have an impact on the market.

I'm more concerned with the 600k coins they haven't have control over (yet). Considering DPR will likely live the rest of his life behind bars, that's a ticket to make pretty damn sure their value never reaches anything significant.

If he has his money stored in brain wallets he can do a lot with that while behind bars.  Unless, of course they catch on and put him in solitary confinement.

The FBI claims they have his encrypted wallet...

[johnyj]

Not possible to buy any coin when price crashed since I could not transfer the fund into exchanges enough quick, now it all went back without slightest sign of retracement

If those 600k coins were safe, then people will know that even FBI can not confiscate bitcoin, lots of money seeking for secure storage will rush into bitcoin later

The single most important usage of bitcoin is store of value, it is super easy to transfer over internet, could not be confiscated and has limited supply, there is no other store of value can compete

[sinner]

With Silk Road down Bitcoin now has now no practical use.

you think online marketplaces for drugs are gone?

Black Market Reloaded http://5onwnspjvuk7cwvk.onion

Sheep Marketplace http://sheep5u64fi457aw.onion

Deepbay http://deepbay4xr3sw2va.onion

all the vendors are moving over and verifying themselves via PGP signatures.  BMR and SMP have grown significantly already.

Silk Road 2.0 https://github.com/goshakkk/silk-road-2.0-concept
- http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1nxgnq/silk_road_20_a_concept_of_distributed_anonymous/

MasterCoin could be extended into a fully decentralized silk road http://www.reddit.com/r/mastercoin/comments/1nqcq3/mastercoin_could_be_extended_into_a_fully/

Silk Road was the Napster.  We're just getting started bro...

[adamstgBit]

With Silk Road down Bitcoin now has now no practical use.

you think online marketplaces for drugs are gone?

Black Market Reloaded http://5onwnspjvuk7cwvk.onion

Sheep Marketplace http://sheep5u64fi457aw.onion

Deepbay http://deepbay4xr3sw2va.onion

all the vendors are moving over and verifying themselves via PGP signatures.  BMR and SMP have grown significantly already.

Silk Road 2.0 https://github.com/goshakkk/silk-road-2.0-concept
- http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1nxgnq/silk_road_20_a_concept_of_distributed_anonymous/

MasterCoin could be extended into a fully decentralized silk road http://www.reddit.com/r/mastercoin/comments/1nqcq3/mastercoin_could_be_extended_into_a_fully/

Silk Road was the Napster.  We're just getting started bro...

damn i thought it would take months

i had no idea this was the case

[600watt]

I am more interested to know when will the feds sell the confiscated coins, that could have an impact on the market.

I'm more concerned with the 600k coins they haven't have control over (yet). Considering DPR will likely live the rest of his life behind bars, that's a ticket to make pretty damn sure their value never reaches anything significant.

this 600 k btc stuff is nonsense. take any companies turnover for two years, shut down the company and expect the entire funds still sitting somewhere... never !
sr had expenses. especially when you are underground things are expensive. and the value of btc during this time was averaging single digits. on top of it dpr might have spent/squandered/donated/lost a lot of it.

maybe 100 k btc, but that is still very high.

[afbitcoins]

ElectricMucus, I honestly don't understand why you are in the bitcoin forums, I've never heard you say anything good about bitcoins ever. You act like someone who has a massive short position in bitcoins, is that the case? Where do you trade?

Or are you a paid shill, or simply a troll ?

[Tzupy]

AFAIK EM is trading on BTC-E, and while he can be rude, IMO he's not a troll. But in the bull section of the forums, he just looks like one.  

[sickpig]

so is the Chinese bitcoin "economy" purely speculation? is there anything going on besides mining and exchange?

Bitcoinstore pays its Chinese suppliers in btc.

good to know and very encouraging

[Miz4r]

ElectricMucus, I honestly don't understand why you are in the bitcoin forums, I've never heard you say anything good about bitcoins ever. You act like someone who has a massive short position in bitcoins, is that the case? Where do you trade?

Or are you a paid shill, or simply a troll ?

He's just extremely cynical, probably because he lacks any form of ideals and vision himself. He will call this being 'realistic' ofcourse. People often project their hatred towards themselves unto others, because they envy what others have that they do not. Belittling bitcoin enthousiasts as ''true believers'' saying they are a very small insignificant group of people who are just delusional is all part of that projection of self-hatred.

[ElectricMucus]

Silk Road was the Napster.  We're just getting started bro...

Napster was a new technology, like Bitcoin. As far as the analogy goes Bitcoin is Napster and Silk Road was the top40s.

[JimboToronto]

ElectricMucus, are you a paid shill, or simply a troll ?

Just a silly little permabear.



 

[maursader]

ElectricMucus, I honestly don't understand why you are in the bitcoin forums, I've never heard you say anything good about bitcoins ever. You act like someone who has a massive short position in bitcoins, is that the case? Where do you trade?

Or are you a paid shill, or simply a troll ?

I realize that it can be slightly annoying to see someone (ElectricMucus) downplaying bitcoin so much, but you know what, it just reassures the community the dedication to the currency itself. Point being, for every 1 troll, you'll see 100+ supporters for bitcoin. What you don't want to see is an entire community agreeing with him.

Just ignore, and keep posting :-)

Bitcoin Scope is a fine site to go to for live news about current bitcoin sentiment. It's pretty entertaining too: http://www.bitcoinscope.com

[sinner]

Napster was a new technology, like Bitcoin. As far as the analogy goes Bitcoin is Napster and Silk Road was the top40s.

No: Bitcoin is the Bittorrent where e-Gold or digicash was the Napster of digital currencies.

Going back to SR--an ebay for drugs is a new thing, so it would be analogous to Napster since SR was centralized.  the next gen SR will not be centralized.

i think EM is a troll.

[Adrian-x]

No TA

With Silk Road down Bitcoin now has now no practical use. Buying stuff over Bitpay has no practical advantage over other methods and it's volume is negligible if you exclude ASIC sales.
Bitcoin is now 99% concerned with itself, that is either mining or investing, any sensible individual gonna look for a exit in the following months. Then you true believers will be finally on your own.
It's now a pure financial bubble.

Have fun!

I see it differently. To me it looks like the money regression theorem we have shifted from wheat to metals in Smith's wealth of nations.

XBT is now a socialized p2p distributed store of wealth.  

[Buffer Overflow]

With Silk Road down Bitcoin now has now no practical use.

you think online marketplaces for drugs are gone?

Black Market Reloaded http://5onwnspjvuk7cwvk.onion

Sheep Marketplace http://sheep5u64fi457aw.onion

Deepbay http://deepbay4xr3sw2va.onion

all the vendors are moving over and verifying themselves via PGP signatures.  BMR and SMP have grown significantly already.

Silk Road 2.0 https://github.com/goshakkk/silk-road-2.0-concept
- http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1nxgnq/silk_road_20_a_concept_of_distributed_anonymous/

MasterCoin could be extended into a fully decentralized silk road http://www.reddit.com/r/mastercoin/comments/1nqcq3/mastercoin_could_be_extended_into_a_fully/

Silk Road was the Napster.  We're just getting started bro...

I hope these new vendors know what they are doing. Their servers must be locked down 100%. Not 99.99%. I'm talking 100%, 24/7/365 days a year.

One little misconfigured setting in hundreds of config files could slip through vital information to be traced. Maybe a stray DNS query or misconfigured port. The list is endless.
Tor is not fool-proof.
And god forbid don't use PHP. That's just asking to be hacked.

Because the stakes are very high indeed. Their life.

Rather them than me. 

[ElectricMucus]

Napster was a new technology, like Bitcoin. As far as the analogy goes Bitcoin is Napster and Silk Road was the top40s.

No: Bitcoin is the Bittorrent where e-Gold or digicash was the Napster of digital currencies.

Going back to SR--an ebay for drugs is a new thing, so it would be analogous to Napster since SR was centralized.  the next gen SR will not be centralized.

Bitcoin is the first digital currency per se, e-gold was just a website, it's not even relevant for the debate.

But Bitcoin is something else also, it's a proof of concept, more academic work rather than what it is made out to be now. That alone doesn't have to be a bad thing, but that it wasn't made to handle the requirements very well is. The distributed blockchain for example is prohibitive expensive, it doesn't suit to store every transaction ever made on every node. The list goes on, proof of work consumes too much energy, transaction conformation time is to long to be suited for a POS system, etc...

It's a immature concept in every way, and one way or the other it is going to be replaced by a successor which was made with those things in mind, not just patched.
OK enough digressions.



I don't really think other tor marketplaces will be in place of silkroads former glory. The cat is out of the Bag essentially.
The FEDs have gathered a bulk of information by busting SR which makes it that much easier to go after the merchants there, if they move on to black market reloaded for instance the FEDs would posses postal codes of some of their customers at the very least and can track the shipment back to the origin, building profiles and eventually busting the sellers.

If you don't believe that, let me tell you the process has already started... the sellers will have their hands full to stay ahead of the FEDs for the foreseeable future. Business as usual under these circumstances should be out of the question.
http://krebsonsecurity.com/2013/10/feds-arrest-alleged-top-silk-road-drug-seller/

[ElectricMucus]

It's not coming back guys...

Police Arrest 8 In International Silk Road Busts [npr.org]