[Not] Good price at CEX.io

[krampus]

You are back to the same old mistake of claiming that nobody will get a return on their original investment. You can sell your shares back and reclaim some/most/all of your investment depending on what sale price you accept. Some people DO get a good return, plus the revenue from mining.

In my proposed "virtual mining" setup and GHs exchange, some people undoubtedly would earn a profit, between the "mining rewards" and any profit realized by buying low / selling high. But as I (and many others) have pointed out repeatedly, for every person that wins at that game, someone else loses. So that part of the payouts are a wash and thus inconsequential to the exchange operator's profit margin. The only BTC that comes out of the exchange operator's IPO nest egg are the "mining rewards". As long as the exchange operator sets the IPO price at slightly more than twice the first month's "mining rewards" per GHs (at the current and expected difficulty rate) then the total cumulative "mining rewards" will never actually reach 100% of the initial investment.*

If you were just virtual, there would be no evidence in the block chain, and your empire would crumble before your eyes faster than the idea to create it.

Frankly, I don't think it matters. I've heard over and over in this very thread that people are playing day trader for GHs. It doesn't seem (to me) like the people flocking to cex.io really give a rat's ass whether their mining rewards are actually tied to a particular block or not. And if it was really that big of a deal -- if people really won't buy into the concept without at least the strong appearance that they're actually "mining" -- then simply pick out the blocks from some dark mining operation in China or Ukraine and tell everyone that those are the blocks they helped "mine".

Better yet, start a mining pool on the side -- make it 0% fee to attract lots of actual selfish profit-hungry greed-bags miners -- and then piggyback off the blocks that they find. Problem solved.

Also you cannot keep the GH/s artificially inflated without upsetting a lot of people, and ultimately ending your business. People will only pay what they believe it is worth.

Oh, the exchange operator should definitely fluctuate the price a bit to give people the illusion of highs and lows, and maybe even drift generally downwards with Bitcoin difficulty. Still, I have a strong feeling that you're wrong about whether people would notice manipulation or not, or whether they would even care. For support, I present as evidence Exhibit A, Exhibit B, and Exhibit C.

*Of course, if the Bitcoin difficulty ever went down, the exchange operator would be screwed. In all correspondence, be sure to use an implausible name like "Jeffrey Smith" or "Satoshi Nakamoto" so that nobody can find you if or when you have to suddenly disappear.

[Foysal]

You are back to the same old mistake of claiming that nobody will get a return on their original investment. You can sell your shares back and reclaim some/most/all of your investment depending on what sale price you accept. Some people DO get a good return, plus the revenue from mining.

In my proposed "virtual mining" setup and GHs exchange, some people undoubtedly would earn a profit, between the "mining rewards" and any profit realized by buying low / selling high. But as I (and many others) have pointed out repeatedly, for every person that wins at that game, someone else loses. So that part of the payouts are a wash and thus inconsequential to the exchange operator's profit margin. The only BTC that comes out of the exchange operator's IPO nest egg are the "mining rewards". As long as the exchange operator sets the IPO price at slightly more than twice the first month's "mining rewards" per GHs (at the current and expected difficulty rate) then the total cumulative "mining rewards" will never actually reach 100% of the initial investment.*

If you were just virtual, there would be no evidence in the block chain, and your empire would crumble before your eyes faster than the idea to create it.

Frankly, I don't think it matters. I've heard over and over in this very thread that people are playing day trader for GHs. It doesn't seem (to me) like the people flocking to cex.io really give a rat's ass whether their mining rewards are actually tied to a particular block or not. And if it was really that big of a deal -- if people really won't buy into the concept without at least the strong appearance that they're actually "mining" -- then simply pick out the blocks from some dark mining operation in China or Ukraine and tell everyone that those are the blocks they helped "mine".

Better yet, start a mining pool on the side -- make it 0% fee to attract lots of actual selfish profit-hungry greed-bags miners -- and then piggyback off the blocks that they find. Problem solved.

Also you cannot keep the GH/s artificially inflated without upsetting a lot of people, and ultimately ending your business. People will only pay what they believe it is worth.

Oh, the exchange operator should definitely fluctuate the price a bit to give people the illusion of highs and lows, and maybe even drift generally downwards with Bitcoin difficulty. Still, I have a strong feeling that you're wrong about whether people would notice manipulation or not, or whether they would even care. For support, I present as evidence Exhibit A, Exhibit B, and Exhibit C.

*Of course, if the Bitcoin difficulty ever went down, the exchange operator would be screwed. In all correspondence, be sure to use an implausible name like "Jeffrey Smith" or "Satoshi Nakamoto" so that nobody can find you if or when you have to suddenly disappear.

Ohh... I had never considered that scenario!! That would also explain some minor discrepancies I have noticed recently... Here's an idea, I have a web hosting company and dev studio at my disposal, care to put your crypto where your chunt is and front up the BTC to get this virtual exchange and pool going?

[krampus]

Ohh... I had never considered that scenario!! That would also explain some minor discrepancies I have noticed recently... Here's an idea, I have a web hosting company and dev studio at my disposal, care to put your crypto where your chunt is and front up the BTC to get this virtual exchange and pool going?

I'm in the habit of building websites (and web apps) and then... losing interest in them. I'm far too lazy to actually implement something like this and then -- more importantly -- maintain it, even though it is very much within my technical skill set. Still, I have neither the stomach for deception (even for a guaranteed profit) nor the desire to spend my copious free time coding instead of drinking bourbon.

But by all means, more power to whoever wants to run with this idea. I'm certain that it would be profitable. The math is definitively on my side.

[Foysal]

Ohh... I had never considered that scenario!! That would also explain some minor discrepancies I have noticed recently... Here's an idea, I have a web hosting company and dev studio at my disposal, care to put your crypto where your chunt is and front up the BTC to get this virtual exchange and pool going?

I'm in the habit of building websites (and web apps) and then... losing interest in them. I'm far too lazy to actually implement something like this and then -- more importantly -- maintain it, even though it is very much within my technical skill set. Still, I have neither the stomach for deception (even for a guaranteed profit) nor the desire to spend my copious free time coding instead of drinking bourbon.

But by all means, more power to whoever wants to run with this idea. I'm certain that it would be profitable. The math is definitively on my side.

A previous comment of yours mentioned something about selfish day trading profit mongers, or something to that affect.

You, along with many others, have been saying that cexio is bad. You have also said that a 51% attack could be happening, providing "Exhibits" to prove it.

Creating a similar pool and commodity exchange, be it virtual or not, can only serve to help the network by giving the users currently at cexio an alternative option, thereby potentially splitting the percentage monopoly currently at ghash.

I wasn't asking you for your time, I said I have the facilities to set this up, so you can sip all the crap you like, your design requires BTC to pay people. (which according to said design, effectively makes the whole system a glorified faucet)

So the question is, are your comments to genuinely help people, or are you just trolling cexio\ghash? By the way, the same applies to all of you that seem to think the same.

~Foyz

[krampus]

A previous comment of yours mentioned something about selfish day trading profit mongers, or something to that affect.

Actually, that was directed at the hardware-owning miners using the ghash.io pool who apparently are unconcerned about the 51% problem, as long as they get their BTC with 0% fees. I don't have anything against anyone doing day trading (unless they're dishonest about it and insist that they are "miners").

You, along with many others, have been saying that cexio is bad.

That's not quite correct either. I've been saying that if you buy GHs at a price that will never, ever ROI (and that's where cex.io GHs shares are priced at the moment) then you are signing up for a guaranteed loss. The only way to mitigate that loss (and maybe even come out of the deal with a profit) is to day trade the GHs shares. The mining part is absolutely going to be a loss, definitively, unquestionably, and there's no room for debate. Anyone still trying to debate that part is a blithering idiot. It's all about the day trading.

So cex.io is providing a platform for people to pretend they're mining while they're really day trading. I don't think cex.io is bad because of that. I think the customers of cex.io, though, are pretty stupid.

Let me put it another way: If they were good at mining and did the math properly, they would see that as a mining investment, there's no ROI. If they were good at day trading, they would realize that the built-in loss on mining can only reduce their potential up-side from trading. They are, therefore -- being neither particularly good at mining nor day trading -- just a bunch of idiots deceiving themselves into thinking that they're "helping the cause" or some nonsense like that.

You have also said that a 51% attack could be happening, providing "Exhibits" to prove it.

I have no idea if ghash.io is going to attempt a 51% attack or not. I have no opinion on that, though I'd much rather that no pool operator was anywhere close to that threshold. I once provided a link to someone talking about a double-spend allegation from ghash.io when someone else asked if there was any evidence of the allegation. That's the extent of my "exhibits" on that subject.

But let's be clear: I'm much more critical of the people using cex.io than I am about cex.io itself, or even ghash.io.

Creating a similar pool and commodity exchange, be it virtual or not, can only serve to help the network by giving the users currently at cexio an alternative option, thereby potentially splitting the percentage monopoly currently at gnash.

Bullshit. My proposal does nothing but steal BTC from dimwits, unless it also includes a real pool on the side for disguising the absence of actual hashing power. If I was going to go to all the trouble to creating a pool, I would just, you know... create a pool and earn BTC the old fashioned way.

Let me re-iterate that point: the cex.io exchange does not actually help "the cause". Those GHs shares they are selling are going to be online and hashing whether anyone owns the shares or not. As long as they produce more BTC than they use in electricity, cex.io has no reason to turn them off. The only "service" cex.io is providing is a vehicle for stupid people who aren't good at mining or day trading to pretend that they're doing both, while (in the aggregate) giving more of their BTC to cex.io's operator than they get back. Some of the "miners" may in fact turn a profit, but they're too stupid to realize they could have turned more of a profit if they actually just engaged in day trading of virtually any other security or commodity on the planet, other than GHs.

I wasn't asking you for your time, I said I have the facilities to set this up, so you can sip all the crap you like, your design requires BTC to pay people. (which according to said design, effectively makes the whole system a glorified faucet)

You need to re-read my proposal, then. You don't need facilities. You need an AWS server or really any lightweight web server, as there's nothing special about the site that will run on it. You don't need a data center. You just need a web app that pretends to allow people to trade GHs while you're actually stealing their BTC. It's simple, really.

You don't need an initial outlay of BTC, either. You really didn't read the proposal, did you? You need to set an IPO price on the shares of GHs that is slightly more than twice what a real GHs would earn in one month at the current difficulty level. The continuing ASIC arms race going on amongst the actual miners will take care of the rest for you by halving the expected return on a GHs every month until a single GHs is essentially worthless. In other words, the asymptote will never reach 1.0, and you (or whoever attempts this in earnest) will pocket the difference.

And as an aside, I don't sip crap. So fuck you.

So the question is, are your comments to genuinely help people, or are you just trolling cexio\ghash? By the way, the same applies to all of you that seem to think the same.

I'm genuinely interested in helping people. That's why I posted my proposal. I'm not interested in giving people a fake exchange, though. I outlined this "idea" in order to help people realize in a slightly satirical way that the only person who really profits from an arrangement like this is the exchange operator, and the people giving the exchange operator their BTC are, by and large, fools.

I hope that helps someone keep some of their BTC, but the way this thread is going, I kind of doubt it. So be it.

[Flinten]

If cex.io people are smart, and they are very smart, they are already selling virtual GHs in between 

[jupppo]

If cex.io people are smart, and they are very smart, they are already selling virtual GHs in between 

Well I assume you dont have any proof for what youre saying...just trolling?

[krampus]

If cex.io people are smart, and they are very smart, they are already selling virtual GHs in between 

Well I assume you dont have any proof for what youre saying...just trolling?

I believe he was speculating, as his sentence begins with "If". That's different than trolling.

[Foysal]

A previous comment of yours mentioned something about selfish day trading profit mongers, or something to that affect.

Actually, that was directed at the hardware-owning miners using the ghash.io pool who apparently are unconcerned about the 51% problem, as long as they get their BTC with 0% fees. I don't have anything against anyone doing day trading (unless they're dishonest about it and insist that they are "miners").

You, along with many others, have been saying that cexio is bad.

That's not quite correct either. I've been saying that if you buy GHs at a price that will never, ever ROI (and that's where cex.io GHs shares are priced at the moment) then you are signing up for a guaranteed loss. The only way to mitigate that loss (and maybe even come out of the deal with a profit) is to day trade the GHs shares. The mining part is absolutely going to be a loss, definitively, unquestionably, and there's no room for debate. Anyone still trying to debate that part is a blithering idiot. It's all about the day trading.

So cex.io is providing a platform for people to pretend they're mining while they're really day trading. I don't think cex.io is bad because of that. I think the customers of cex.io, though, are pretty stupid.

Let me put it another way: If they were good at mining and did the math properly, they would see that as a mining investment, there's no ROI. If they were good at day trading, they would realize that the built-in loss on mining can only reduce their potential up-side from trading. They are, therefore -- being neither particularly good at mining nor day trading -- just a bunch of idiots deceiving themselves into thinking that they're "helping the cause" or some nonsense like that.

You have also said that a 51% attack could be happening, providing "Exhibits" to prove it.

I have no idea if ghash.io is going to attempt a 51% attack or not. I have no opinion on that, though I'd much rather that no pool operator was anywhere close to that threshold. I once provided a link to someone talking about a double-spend allegation from ghash.io when someone else asked if there was any evidence of the allegation. That's the extent of my "exhibits" on that subject.

But let's be clear: I'm much more critical of the people using cex.io than I am about cex.io itself, or even ghash.io.

Creating a similar pool and commodity exchange, be it virtual or not, can only serve to help the network by giving the users currently at cexio an alternative option, thereby potentially splitting the percentage monopoly currently at gnash.

Bullshit. My proposal does nothing but steal BTC from dimwits, unless it also includes a real pool on the side for disguising the absence of actual hashing power. If I was going to go to all the trouble to creating a pool, I would just, you know... create a pool and earn BTC the old fashioned way.

Let me re-iterate that point: the cex.io exchange does not actually help "the cause". Those GHs shares they are selling are going to be online and hashing whether anyone owns the shares or not. As long as they produce more BTC than they use in electricity, cex.io has no reason to turn them off. The only "service" cex.io is providing is a vehicle for stupid people who aren't good at mining or day trading to pretend that they're doing both, while (in the aggregate) giving more of their BTC to cex.io's operator than they get back. Some of the "miners" may in fact turn a profit, but they're too stupid to realize they could have turned more of a profit if they actually just engaged in day trading of virtually any other security or commodity on the planet, other than GHs.

I wasn't asking you for your time, I said I have the facilities to set this up, so you can sip all the crap you like, your design requires BTC to pay people. (which according to said design, effectively makes the whole system a glorified faucet)

You need to re-read my proposal, then. You don't need facilities. You need an AWS server or really any lightweight web server, as there's nothing special about the site that will run on it. You don't need a data center. You just need a web app that pretends to allow people to trade GHs while you're actually stealing their BTC. It's simple, really.

You don't need an initial outlay of BTC, either. You really didn't read the proposal, did you? You need to set an IPO price on the shares of GHs that is slightly more than twice what a real GHs would earn in one month at the current difficulty level. The continuing ASIC arms race going on amongst the actual miners will take care of the rest for you by halving the expected return on a GHs every month until a single GHs is essentially worthless. In other words, the asymptote will never reach 1.0, and you (or whoever attempts this in earnest) will pocket the difference.

And as an aside, I don't sip crap. So fuck you.

So the question is, are your comments to genuinely help people, or are you just trolling cexio\ghash? By the way, the same applies to all of you that seem to think the same.

I'm genuinely interested in helping people. That's why I posted my proposal. I'm not interested in giving people a fake exchange, though. I outlined this "idea" in order to help people realize in a slightly satirical way that the only person who really profits from an arrangement like this is the exchange operator, and the people giving the exchange operator their BTC are, by and large, fools.

I hope that helps someone keep some of their BTC, but the way this thread is going, I kind of doubt it. So be it.

Well that's funny, because you talk crap, so you *must* sip it as well, not to mention that a bourbon is a pansy drink anyway. It's The users risk to take, if they lose money they lose money, it's there poor judgment that has caused the loss, no one is holding a gun to their heads. So stop being a demented muppet and jog on.

~Foyz

[krampus]

Well that's funny, because you talk crap, so you *must* sip it as well, not to mention that a bourbon is a pansy drink anyway.

You can believe whatever you want. I believe that you're a fuckwit.

It's The users risk to take

Of course it is. Did I ever dispute that? No. You're stating the obvious because you've apparently got nothing else to say, except this shit-talking about bourbon.

So stop being a demented muppet and jog on.

Right back atcha there, buck-o.

[Foysal]

Well that's funny, because you talk crap, so you *must* sip it as well, not to mention that a bourbon is a pansy drink anyway.

You can believe whatever you want. I believe that you're a fuckwit.

It's The users risk to take

Of course it is. Did I ever dispute that? No. You're stating the obvious because you've apparently got nothing else to say, except this shit-talking about bourbon.

So stop being a demented muppet and jog on.

Right back atcha there, buck-o.

I could say more, but frankly you're a waste of time and space.

~Foyz

[krampus]

Well that's funny, because you talk crap, so you *must* sip it as well, not to mention that a bourbon is a pansy drink anyway.

You can believe whatever you want. I believe that you're a fuckwit.

It's The users risk to take

Of course it is. Did I ever dispute that? No. You're stating the obvious because you've apparently got nothing else to say, except this shit-talking about bourbon.

So stop being a demented muppet and jog on.

Right back atcha there, buck-o.

I could say more, but frankly you're a waste of time and space.

~Foyz

Right back atcha there, buck-o.

[jupppo]

If cex.io people are smart, and they are very smart, they are already selling virtual GHs in between 

Well I assume you dont have any proof for what youre saying...just trolling?

I believe he was speculating, as his sentence begins with "If". That's different than trolling.

Youre right, the "If" makes the difference...

Sorry for that!

[dyask]

Anyone's cex.io bots making money?

Yes, I made 4% over the last week.   However this coming week who knows?   I've been out of the game for a couple days as I rebuilt my bot and liquidated my GHS.   Now it is buying back in a little bit higher.

Being able to write my own bot and run it is the major attraction to CEX.io as it is hard to be profitable just by mining. 

[Foysal]

Anyone's cex.io bots making money?

Yes, I made 4% over the last week.   However this coming week who knows?   I've been out of the game for a couple days as I rebuilt my bot and liquidated my GHS.   Now it is buying back in a little bit higher.

Being able to write my own bot and run it is the major attraction to CEX.io as it is hard to be profitable just by mining. 

That's why you do both, even a minor profit is still a profit.

What have you used to write your bot btw?

~Foyz

[dyask]

Anyone's cex.io bots making money?

Yes, I made 4% over the last week.   However this coming week who knows?   I've been out of the game for a couple days as I rebuilt my bot and liquidated my GHS.   Now it is buying back in a little bit higher.

Being able to write my own bot and run it is the major attraction to CEX.io as it is hard to be profitable just by mining. 

That's why you do both, even a minor profit is still a profit.

What have you used to write your bot btw?

~Foyz

It is in Python.  Not a language of choice for me, but there was already a working reinvesting bot in the CEX.io forums and I rebuilt that into what I wanted very quickly.   I'm slowly cleaning it up, but I built in 3 different bots in it and the third one I've modified many time.   The first two bots were losers.   

I don't have any plans to share my bot though.   That can be a huge amount of pain and I expect to keep in a state of constant tweaking.   Frankly, I think any bot that is just shared, probably isn't worth much. 

[Thom]

Anyone's cex.io bots making money?

Yes, I made 4% over the last week.   However this coming week who knows?   I've been out of the game for a couple days as I rebuilt my bot and liquidated my GHS.   Now it is buying back in a little bit higher.

Being able to write my own bot and run it is the major attraction to CEX.io as it is hard to be profitable just by mining.  

That's why you do both, even a minor profit is still a profit.

What have you used to write your bot btw?

~Foyz

It is in Python.  Not a language of choice for me, but there was already a working reinvesting bot in the CEX.io forums and I rebuilt that into what I wanted very quickly.   I'm slowly cleaning it up, but I built in 3 different bots in it and the third one I've modified many time.   The first two bots were losers.  

I don't have any plans to share my bot though.   That can be a huge amount of pain and I expect to keep in a state of constant tweaking.   Frankly, I think any bot that is just shared, probably isn't worth much.  

That's just what I did to grow my Ghs over my first month of cexio.

Bot v1 sells all BTC & NMC for GHS every hour
Bot v2 sells <configurable>% of NMC and <configurable>% of BTC every hour
Bot v3 is being fine-tuned to be distributable for easy git pull so cexio mining newbies can reinvest with no effort
Bot v4 might do something like only sell by placing orders just above/below the price at time of sale, who knows.

It's pretty much usable so if anyone wants it PM me

[dyask]

It is in Python.  Not a language of choice for me, but there was already a working reinvesting bot in the CEX.io forums and I rebuilt that into what I wanted very quickly.   I'm slowly cleaning it up, but I built in 3 different bots in it and the third one I've modified many time.   The first two bots were losers.  

I don't have any plans to share my bot though.   That can be a huge amount of pain and I expect to keep in a state of constant tweaking.   Frankly, I think any bot that is just shared, probably isn't worth much.  

That's just what I did to grow my Ghs over my first month of cexio.

Bot v1 sells all BTC & NMC for GHS every hour
Bot v2 sells <configurable>% of NMC and <configurable>% of BTC every hour
Bot v3 is being fine-tuned to be distributable for easy git pull so cexio mining newbies can reinvest with no effort
Bot v4 might do something like only sell by placing orders just above/below the price at time of sale, who knows.

It's pretty much usable so if anyone wants it PM me

Have you done any analysis to see if the value of your holdings is decreasing or increasing?

value = BTC + GHS * price

[Thom]

It is in Python.  Not a language of choice for me, but there was already a working reinvesting bot in the CEX.io forums and I rebuilt that into what I wanted very quickly.   I'm slowly cleaning it up, but I built in 3 different bots in it and the third one I've modified many time.   The first two bots were losers.  

I don't have any plans to share my bot though.   That can be a huge amount of pain and I expect to keep in a state of constant tweaking.   Frankly, I think any bot that is just shared, probably isn't worth much.  

That's just what I did to grow my Ghs over my first month of cexio.

Bot v1 sells all BTC & NMC for GHS every hour
Bot v2 sells <configurable>% of NMC and <configurable>% of BTC every hour
Bot v3 is being fine-tuned to be distributable for easy git pull so cexio mining newbies can reinvest with no effort
Bot v4 might do something like only sell by placing orders just above/below the price at time of sale, who knows.

It's pretty much usable so if anyone wants it PM me

Have you done any analysis to see if the value of your holdings is decreasing or increasing?

value = BTC + GHS * price

It's increasing, of course. At a varying rate.
I only used this unattended for my first month there - now I do occasional Ghs sells when the price is descending to keep my holdings high.

[BorisAlt]

Put in another way :
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.038BTC/GHs at end of Jan 2014 ? That is actually possible, if you're lucky.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.034BTC/GHs at end of Feb 2014 ? That is hardly possible, even if you're lucky.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.031BTC/GHs at end of Mar 2014 ? That is near impossible.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.030BTC/GHs at end of Apr 2014 ? haha, good one...
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.029BTC/GHs at end of May 2014 ? *omg* have you seen a doctor lately?...

Within short timeframes, this seems to work (thanks to permanent market manipulation at cex.io), but it won't last long. When cex GHs price breaks downward, it breaks fast & furious like last time. And falling it will, guaranteed, taking your entire investment with it - step by step.

According to this prediction CEX price will drop from curent 0.042 to 0.038 by next weekend.