[Not] Good price at CEX.io

[FalconFly]

Their maintenance fee is now at *drumroll* : 10.06% (no further comment needed)

[1715400059]

1715400059

[1715400059]

1715400059

[1715400059]

1715400059

[hiddensphinx]

CEX.io what does it mean?  Customer Expenses Xhale.internal organs


Posted From bitcointalk.org Android App

[xandriel]

18 days mining, no trading at all. Pure profit from mining alone.

As I said before, it is EASY to make btc using Cex.io

[FalconFly]

18 days mining, no trading at all. Pure profit from mining alone.

As I said before, it is EASY to make btc using Cex.io

18 more days and another price drop - all these profits will begin to dimish and eventually vanish as usual.
To count on the last 3 weeks price stability would be more than foolish (part of it came from BTC valuation decrease), as the natural tensions to the downside increase every day.

As I said before, it is EASY to lose btc using Cex.Io.

Just stay with them for a while and the losses will set in (30-45 days is usually sufficient, your timing may vary).
Tonight I'll update my calculations from early January with the latest data, which demonstrate the loss-effect pretty nice.

[xandriel]

18 days mining, no trading at all. Pure profit from mining alone.

As I said before, it is EASY to make btc using Cex.io

18 more days and another price drop - all these profits will begin to dimish and eventually vanish as usual.
To count on the last 3 weeks price stability would be more than foolish (part of it came from BTC valuation decrease), as the natural tensions to the downside increase every day.

As I said before, it is EASY to lose btc using Cex.Io.

Just stay with them for a while and the losses will set in (30-45 days is usually sufficient, your timing may vary).
Tonight I'll update my calculations from early January with the latest data, which demonstrate the loss-effect pretty nice.

I have been mining with Cex.io for over 2 months. I have seen the price decrease, lost some btc, gained more.
In all that time I have GAINED btc with little trading, except getting out when I see the price plummet.

I had ignored you, but thought maybe, just maybe, you would post something of value...I was wrong.

The cost per GH/s is not the same as the cost for hardware, it is a commodity and it's value depends on market demand.

[FalconFly]

I have been mining with Cex.io for over 2 months. I have seen the price decrease, lost some btc, gained more.
In all that time I have GAINED btc with little trading, except getting out when I see the price plummet.

I had ignored you, but thought maybe, just maybe, you would post something of value...I was wrong.

The cost per GH/s is not the same as the cost for hardware, it is a commodity and it's value depends on market demand.

If you successfully traded, you'll notice that I never questioned that on anyone (that's where you were wrong about me, to be precise).

The cost per GHs is indeed not the cost for hardware - it is far higher than typical hardware used to be profitable miners. It's a commodity indeed but its value depends entirely on the degree of cex.io "market" manipulation interrupted by periodic waterfall price drops after their manipulated Ghs price levels reach a ludicrous state.
If you can trade these conditions and not get caught cold-footed by overnight price drops (i.e. a bot trading your stoploss trigger or avoid holding GHs overnight), cex.io trading can be quite profitable. That exchange functionality is clearly their best feature, albeit the only one.

[xandriel]

If you successfully traded, you'll notice that I never questioned that on anyone (that's where you were wrong about me, to be precise).

The cost per GHs is indeed not the cost for hardware - it is far higher than typical hardware used to be profitable miners. It's a commodity indeed but its value depends entirely on the degree of cex.io "market" manipulation interrupted by periodic waterfall price drops after their manipulated Ghs price levels reach a ludicrous state.
If you can trade these conditions and not get caught cold-footed by overnight price drops (i.e. a bot trading your stoploss trigger or avoid holding GHs overnight), cex.io trading can be quite profitable. That exchange functionality is clearly their best feature, albeit the only one.

As I said a few posts ago. I was NOT trading at all during the past 3 weeks.
I do not, and never have, used a bot or stoploss or any other form of automated trading.
Sure, sometimes you lose a little, and it can be frustrating as hell when the price drops overnight, but that is part of the market.
The price of the commodity will always be higher than that of the hardware...otherwise nobody would bother purchasing hardware until the commodity price increased due to excessive demand. This does not mean that the market price at Cex.io is artificial, or manipulated beyond the normal operations of the market forces.

[FalconFly]

As I said a few posts ago. I was NOT trading at all during the past 3 weeks.
I do not, and never have, used a bot or stoploss or any other form of automated trading.
Sure, sometimes you lose a little, and it can be frustrating as hell when the price drops overnight, but that is part of the market.
The price of the commodity will always be higher than that of the hardware...otherwise nobody would bother purchasing hardware until the commodity price increased due to excessive demand. This does not mean that the market price at Cex.io is artificial, or manipulated beyond the normal operations of the market forces.

In all that time I have GAINED btc with little trading, [...]

That part sounded otherwise, hence my comment (?)

I do understand the services associated with cloud mining will naturally yield a somewhat higher price (after all, it's fully hosted), but that should be limited to a percentage that makes up for that (i.e. something like 30-50% that both covers cost and generates profits).
Seeing the cex.io move between 250% to >400% of the typical market hardware price for profitable miners, however, is something of entirely different nature. Given that only a small fraction of available mining power is actually rented out at any given time supports that.

Anyway, in the last 18 days we did not see any price drop (rather the opposite due to the typical upwards manipulation that you label "free market price movement" at your choice), hence that time period clearly resulted in profits.
Cex.io often has time periods with no price decline. However, these do end (since their current price is way too high given hardware market conditions that they supposedly compete with), the tensions for a waterfall drop are already very high again.
The longer the price moves manipulated upwards against free market forces, the higher the tensions between manipulation and free market.
Thus the more pronounced the price drop/crash (eventually reality reasserts itself to some extend), when insiders dump at good price and high volume (leaving all others holding the bag) and then resuming buying at the resulting overshoot to the downside - rinse, repeat, cycle, excellent profits for a few insiders, while all others lose. That's the pump&dump scheme I observed numerous times over there, as it just keeps repeating like clockwork.

The risks and eventually losses typically set in after mining and holding the GHs for longer periods of time, i.e. 1 month or longer.
After 2 months, every BTC you mined there will have typically turned into a loss (or 0-sum if you're very lucky) due to GHs price decline. Mining even longer than that without trading turns into cumulating losses that increase over time. That's basically all.
Successful trading is the only strategy that can negate the losses generated by holding their Ghs over longer times or during any price drops.

[bitndx]

I ran the numbers on CEX.IO and found that they were too high for me. I couldn't see how you to make a sustained profit over time with that model.

[UltraPleb]

Bought a 0.5 GHs on there with fiat, luckily I sold when the value was still relatively high.

[FalconFly]

As promised the end of Feb update :

Put in another way :
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.038BTC/GHs at end of Jan 2014 ? That is actually possible, if you're lucky.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.034BTC/GHs at end of Feb 2014 ? That is hardly possible, even if you're lucky.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.031BTC/GHs at end of Mar 2014 ? That is near impossible.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.030BTC/GHs at end of Apr 2014 ? haha, good one...
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.029BTC/GHs at end of May 2014 ? *omg* have you seen a doctor lately?...

I see a closing price of 0.0236BTC/GHs, which ran far below my expectations, anyway turns out a purely mining January 2014 GHs holder would now be seriously out of luck and best off realizing losses & quit ASAP.
As expected, losses now begin to cumulate into serious figures, additionally helped by cex.io maintenance fee now exceeding a whopping 10% (as of today it's at an insulting 12.27%).
No 0% pool fee or merged mining NMC/IXC/DVC breadcrumbs help that, these features have become meaningless and dwarfed by a small fraction of the maintenance fee already.
In other words : if cex.io was your ordinary car - you'd ditch it ASAP and get one that doesn't run up such terrible maintenance bills.

Losses caused by cex mining since Jan 2014 have now reached 30%, which is optimistic (still based on the original, far lower maintenance fee of ~3%).
The additional losses (total net worth of investment) are entirely contributed to the fallen BTC valuation, which is one of the risks every BTC owner takes on.

At this point already it doesn't make sense anymore to continue observing the reality @ cex.io vs. my calculations and derived predictions, as the losses programmed into cex.io mining are non-recoverable in the original scenario *. Besides, the profitability outlook there looks absolutely absymal at this point. Basically it just keeps moving from terribly bad to even worse.

* Scenario :
Rent GHs at cex.io in early Jan 2014 and fully re-invest everything mined (merged mined NMC/IXC/DVC is approximated by assuming an additional 2% mining output, as I lack/forgot the exact figure).
Personal prediction :
Progressive and cumulating losses over increasing timeframes, above prices are minimum resale GHs prices to avoid a net loss (negative ROI).

[semik]

I see a closing price of 0.0236BTC/GHs, which ran far below my expectations, anyway turns out a purely mining January 2014 GHs holder would now be seriously out of luck and best off realizing losses & quit ASAP.

I've discovered cex.io a month ago. By trading with 2 and later with 4BTC I made there 0.5BTC, I do not care about mining - that's only bonus. It was good. But maybe only beginners luck.

This week it sucks! It dropped bellow my predicted value. I bought too early at 0.0220 and now we are at 0.0205. Shitty... I've to wait for mining profit just to quit with zero.

http://www.tomasek.cz/btc/cex.io/cex.io-2014.03.06.png

[FalconFly]

I see a closing price of 0.0236BTC/GHs, which ran far below my expectations, anyway turns out a purely mining January 2014 GHs holder would now be seriously out of luck and best off realizing losses & quit ASAP.

This week it sucks! It dropped bellow my predicted value. I bought too early at 0.0220 and now we are at 0.0205. Shitty... I've to wait for mining profit just to quit with zero.

That's unlucky, hope you got out in time to take another entry spot.

Currenct price states 0.0156 BTC/GHs... the 0.02 BTC/GHs barrier fell on very high volume.
Maintenance fee increased to : 13.67% (!)

A purely mining guy from the Jan 2014 scenario would have had to sell @ 0.031 BTC/GHs in 2 weeks just to get out with a 0 (actually more than ~0.035 due to the 5-fold increased fees in the meantime).
Far over 50% of the investment lost in about 2 months, that's quite something.

That should answer (once and for all) any questions about mining profitability @ cex.io.
The traders I wish the best of luck.

[bitcoin_miner]

bad experience in cex.io

[beltin]

I was  fortunate enough to get out before the price kept dropping although made a loss.

[ProudMiner]

CEX.io is basically a trading platform and not a mining platform.
Mining is just a small bonus while you wait to sell your GH/s at a price higher
than the price you bought them, this is the concept.
But the flaw of this concept is the fact that due to difficulty increase, the value of the GH/s will always decrease,
this is why is almost impossible to get a profit.
And now that you have to pay the maintenance cost and the transaction fee, there is no way to make a profit.
There is the benefit that the GH/s that you buy, they start mining immediately and you don't have to know anything
about setting up hardware but this is just not enough to compensate the loss.

[chinchs]

bad experience in cex.io

You may try pbmining, many people made ROI, I received 3 payments (they pay once a week) and everything is going just fine, the price is 0.0041 right now

[nwfella]

My personal experience with cex.io/ghash.io is a mixed bag honestly.  Fairly reliable at times, not so much at others.  Satoshi's missing at times but always replaced eventually.  As for mining, fairly reliable, much more so now that I've added nl1 proxy

Insofar as a trading platform...pretty decent.  Would love to see them start adding quite a few more trading pairs.

[ajareselde]

So i was just tapping some numbers in to http://mining.thegenesisblock.com and i might have this wrong but it looks a lot like you need a price of about 0.05 BTC per GH to turn a profit?

Am I missing something?

They are definetly overpriced, you have higher chances in turning a profit by buying mining equipement, and even more chances of profit in simplay buying coins.
Mining as a business is getting over-saturated, thus reducing the profitability

[FalconFly]

Didn't think the thread would be still alive...

Might as well make a final analysis and result, as my furthest predicion time ran in at end of May.

Put in another way :
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.038BTC/GHs at end of Jan 2014 ? That is actually possible, if you're lucky.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.034BTC/GHs at end of Feb 2014 ? That is hardly possible, even if you're lucky.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.031BTC/GHs at end of Mar 2014 ? That is near impossible.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.030BTC/GHs at end of Apr 2014 ? haha, good one...
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.029BTC/GHs at end of May 2014 ? *omg* have you seen a doctor lately?...

I see a closing price of 0.007BTC/GHs.

The cumulating losses simply ended up being severe and absolutely devastating in the 6 months period observed.
Estimated total net loss after these 6 months is exceeding 80% (!)
Together with maybe some completely crashed stocks or toxic derivates, cex.io cloud mining would certainly be among the biggest money-losing assets in the entire investment market worldwide.

...and the calculations were based on the original maintenance fee of ~3% - as of today it is so ridiculously high they don't even display the plain figure anymore and leave it to the customer to research and do the entire math behind it.

I just hope the original poster that asked for my prognosis got out of this money-losing scheme as early as possible - which is the only thing you can do if you intendeded to do cloud mining @ cex.io.
Recognize the scheme behind it, realize the error and quit ASAP, this preserves whatever of your invested money is left.

* Original scenario :
Rent GHs at cex.io in early Jan 2014 and fully re-invest everything mined (merged mined NMC/IXC/DVC is approximated by assuming an additional 2% mining output, as I lack/forgot the exact figure).
Personal prediction :
Progressive and cumulating losses over increasing timeframes, listed prices are minimum resale GHs prices to avoid a net loss (negative ROI) for each given month of prolonged investment duration.

-------------------------------
Overall, pending another massive Bull-run upwards in price, it really looks like the days for mining are simply over. Unless you somehow get nearly free power supplied AND manage to strike an excellent deal on latest-gen highend hardware... there's almost no way anymore you could walk away with a profit. You either have to get in BIG and take all the risks or leave it be.

Buying BTC (or altcoins of your choice) at a price you deem attractive is now almost the only way to play the game. Otherwise, you'd be highly prone to simply toss money right out of the window.