FinneysTrueVision
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December 10, 2019, 04:17:15 AM |
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I made over 20 000 faucet claims and I never won anything bigger.
Well Just for your info % Rolls 0,0100000000000% 1 0,0199990000000% 2 0,0299970001000% 3 0,0399940004000% 4 0,0499900009999% 5 0,0599850019998% 6 0,0699790034996% 7 0,0799720055993% 8 0,0899640083987% 9 0,0999550119979% 10 9,5167106441444% 1000 18,1277434734450% 2000 25,9192892249089% 3000 32,9693361124998% 4000 39,3484504375222% 5000 45,1204829105730% 6000 50,3432077548775% 7000 55,0689009880098% 8000 59,3448636702149% 9000 63,2138953567030% 10000 86,4678250517240% 20000 with 20000 rolls you had a chance of 86.5% to hit 10000. Those numbers are off. The odds of rolling 10000 is 0.005000014790566641% or roughly 1 in 20,000 rolls.
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coinlocket$
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December 10, 2019, 10:25:33 AM |
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Those numbers are off. The odds of rolling 10000 is 0.005000014790566641% or roughly 1 in 20,000 rolls.
The math is correct. Those are the odds for hitting 10000 after 20000 " consecutive rolls". If an infinite numbers of people roll 20000 times or they stop rolling when they hit 10000 than 86,4678250517240% of those people got 1 10000 roll. The odds for hitting 10000 every roll is 1/10000 of course.
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Betwrong
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I stand with Ukraine.
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December 10, 2019, 01:05:52 PM Last edit: December 10, 2019, 01:22:21 PM by Betwrong |
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Those numbers are off. The odds of rolling 10000 is 0.005000014790566641% or roughly 1 in 20,000 rolls.
The math is correct. Those are the odds for hitting 10000 after 20000 " consecutive rolls". If an infinite numbers of people roll 20000 times or they stop rolling when they hit 10000 than 86,4678250517240% of those people got 1 10000 roll. The odds for hitting 10000 every roll is 1/10000 of course.Absolutely. I was surprised seeing other numbers here. Winning $200 on free rolls is exactly as likely as hitting 0.00 or 99.99 on a dice site, it's 0.01% win chance. Only I don't think it matters whether the rolls are consecutive or not. IMO it doesn't change anything. Also, no one should be surprised that after making 20,000 rolls he/she didn't hit it even once. This would be equivalent to 4 losses in a row with 50% win chance. Who would be surprised by that? EDIT: I forgot to mention that I also won the third–bottom prize on free rolls, like @mindrust above, just a few days ago: It is so rare that the feeling you get when winning it is worth much more than the money.
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BITCOIN TO THE MOON --> ☾ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿
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hosseinimr93
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December 10, 2019, 01:31:07 PM Last edit: December 11, 2019, 04:25:35 PM by hosseinimr93 |
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Those numbers are off. The odds of rolling 10000 is 0.005000014790566641% or roughly 1 in 20,000 rolls.
The math is correct. Those are the odds for hitting 10000 after 20000 " consecutive rolls". If an infinite numbers of people roll 20000 times or they stop rolling when they hit 10000 than 86,4678250517240% of those people got 1 10000 roll. The odds for hitting 10000 every roll is 1/10000 of course.Absolutely. I was surprised seeing other numbers here. Winning $200 on free rolls is exactly as likely as hitting 0.00 or 99.99 on a dice site, it's 0.01% win chance. Only I don't think it matters whether the rolls are consecutive or not. IMO it doesn't change anything. Also, no one should be surprised that after making 20,000 rolls he/she didn't hit it even once. This would be equivalent to 4 losses in a row with 50% win chance. Who would be surprised by that? The chance of not hitting 10000 in 20,000 rolls is even higher than the chance of four losses in a row. The chance of not hitting 10000 in 20,000 rolls: 0.9999^20000= 0.135 or 13.5%0.99995^20000=0.37 or 37.5%The chance of 4 consecutive losses in a game with 50% win chance: (0.5)^4=0.0625 or 6.25%
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davinchi
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December 10, 2019, 04:02:58 PM |
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--snip
This is never a good plan. I mean living on interest. Doesn't matter if it the bank or freebitco.in where you get interest from. Even collecting rents make more sense than collecting interest. Interest is only a short term solution till you figure out something else, better. That %4 you get from freebitco.in right now, there is no guarantee that it will go on like this forever. I wouldn't plan my life on this. You guys might be living in a different country, but in my country if you are making 666 dollars per month you could live a very good life and also keep saving. Plus, my fiat to dollar changes all the time and dollar worths more and more of my fiat anyway every single year because we are a country that's run horribly, USA even under Trump didn't do that bad economically, it is a country that even with all its flaws could be the leader of economical world for a long time. 200K with 4% interest could help me live for 50 years easily (by which time I will 100% be dead considering I am unnecessary fat and eat junk food so much that heart attack might around the corner). So, long story short there are better ways of making money, however this one is enough as well, don't need anything better.
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Kprawn
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December 10, 2019, 05:16:57 PM |
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FreeBitco.in arrived at SiGMA Malta 2019 in style! The Golden Lamborghini was the talk of the event, making our first appearance at one of the biggest iGaming conventions in the world a tremendous success! A sneak peek of what happened at Malta! The Bitcoin Community rocked SiGMA Malta 2019 with FreeBitco.in stealing all the attention.
Well, this surely gives a 1 finger salute to all the people that thought that this draw was a scam. Do you know how many people attended this event? This is the kind of publicity that Freebitco.in needs and the girls was also a fine touch to match such a wonderful prize. I assume the car was just for show and not actually bought for the competition, because most people will opt for the prize money instead. Well done freebitco.in team.
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BitSat19
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December 10, 2019, 07:23:19 PM Last edit: December 11, 2019, 07:01:53 PM by BitSat19 |
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FreeBitco.in arrived at SiGMA Malta 2019 in style! The Golden Lamborghini was the talk of the event, making our first appearance at one of the biggest iGaming conventions in the world a tremendous success! A sneak peek of what happened at Malta! The Bitcoin Community rocked SiGMA Malta 2019 with FreeBitco.in stealing all the attention.
Well, this surely gives a 1 finger salute to all the people that thought that this draw was a scam. Do you know how many people attended this event? This is the kind of publicity that Freebitco.in needs and the girls was also a fine touch to match such a wonderful prize. I assume the car was just for show and not actually bought for the competition, because most people will opt for the prize money instead. Well done freebitco.in team. You guys really proud for this community because you doing good and well work for attracting new peoples after watching these picks feeling good for you.
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FinneysTrueVision
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December 10, 2019, 10:02:02 PM |
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Those numbers are off. The odds of rolling 10000 is 0.005000014790566641% or roughly 1 in 20,000 rolls.
The math is correct. Those are the odds for hitting 10000 after 20000 " consecutive rolls". If an infinite numbers of people roll 20000 times or they stop rolling when they hit 10000 than 86,4678250517240% of those people got 1 10000 roll. The odds for hitting 10000 every roll is 1/10000 of course. Is your formula assuming the odds of rolling 10000 is 1 in 10,000? It's 1 in 20,000 because of the way the provably fair formula works you have half as many chances to roll a 0 or 1000 than every other number.
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STT
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December 10, 2019, 10:38:20 PM |
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That would be weird if true, theres 10,000 possible whole number returned in the result. To then have 20,000 possible outcomes would be surprising then. It is so rare that the feeling you get when winning it is worth much more than the money. Getting lucky like that begs the question can I make it a run I think you have 99.86% chance of not winning in that case so its super lucky for sure This would be equivalent to 4 losses in a row with 50% win chance. Who would be surprised by that? I would be quite upset on not getting a win there. I knew someone who could flip coins every time for the desired result, thats why the heads or tails should always be called with coin in the air and the coin never caught after the flip. Watch them at a match start and they should follow those rules afaik
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FinneysTrueVision
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That would be weird if true, theres 10,000 possible whole number returned in the result. To then have 20,000 possible outcomes would be surprising then.
Each time you roll you are generating a decimal, not a whole number. There are over 4 billion possible decimal numbers you can generate and only 0.005% of those decimals can be rounded to 10000.
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STT
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December 10, 2019, 11:40:29 PM |
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All of that is connected to 'provably fair formula' which is used by many websites, thats confusing to me. Obviously most would assume 10,000 numbers reflects equally in the chances, do you have any reference or will I find this detail anywhere related to 'provably fair formula'. I'll look into this further at some point as its generally a good idea to have some understanding of the maths behind any game, even if its free in the case of the faucet roll.
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docthusinh
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December 10, 2019, 11:53:12 PM |
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That would be weird if true, theres 10,000 possible whole number returned in the result. To then have 20,000 possible outcomes would be surprising then.
Each time you roll you are generating a decimal, not a whole number. There are over 4 billion possible decimal numbers you can generate and only 0.005% of those decimals can be rounded to 10000. Yeah, the rounding myth is unknown for this site and i think it's for purpose, to verify do a small check: bet with 1 satoshi on automatic mode with odd of 200 and check what is the actual pay, 196 satoshi for your reference. The real math behind is the real accepted odd is 197.92 and the decimal parts is stripped off hence 197 less 1 for the stake thus your win is 196. Derrive from how they do the rounding from above example, 9999.9 or 9999.999999, the right part of the decimal will always be stripped off and the chance of getting 10000 is very very slim, you are not getting rounded for 0.9 -> 0.999999 to become 1.0 for being a top 1 winner.
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TheQuin
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December 11, 2019, 12:49:38 AM |
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~ Obviously most would assume 10,000 numbers reflects equally in the chances, do you have any reference or will I find this detail anywhere related to 'provably fair formula'.
It's under the "THIS GAME IS PROVABLY FAIR!" tab right at the top of the page. How are rolls calculated? Two strings are created : STRING1 = "[NONCE]:[SERVER SEED]:[NONCE]" STRING2 = "[NONCE]:[CLIENT SEED]:[NONCE]" Then HMAC-SHA512 is used to hash STRING1 with STRING2 as the secret key, giving us a 128 character hex string. The first 8 characters of the hex string are taken and converted to a decimal. This decimal is then divided by 429496.7295 and rounded off to the nearest whole number.This whole number is used as your roll, with the maximum possible value being 10,000. The payout table also states that possible results are 0-10000, not 1-10000 so both results 00000 and 10000 have half the chance of being rolled than any other number due to rounding. It's free to play so I don't see any grounds for complaint that people being scammed by this.
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docthusinh
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December 11, 2019, 01:26:59 AM |
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~ Obviously most would assume 10,000 numbers reflects equally in the chances, do you have any reference or will I find this detail anywhere related to 'provably fair formula'.
It's under the "THIS GAME IS PROVABLY FAIR!" tab right at the top of the page. How are rolls calculated? Two strings are created : STRING1 = "[NONCE]:[SERVER SEED]:[NONCE]" STRING2 = "[NONCE]:[CLIENT SEED]:[NONCE]" Then HMAC-SHA512 is used to hash STRING1 with STRING2 as the secret key, giving us a 128 character hex string. The first 8 characters of the hex string are taken and converted to a decimal. This decimal is then divided by 429496.7295 and rounded off to the nearest whole number.This whole number is used as your roll, with the maximum possible value being 10,000. The payout table also states that possible results are 0-10000, not 1-10000 so both results 00000 and 10000 have half the chance of being rolled than any other number due to rounding. It's free to play so I don't see any grounds for complaint that people being scammed by this. The issue is we need to know what's inside the free thing, I bet you would happy to take small free white powder package at the airport checkpoint . Yes it's is provably fair, but how it should be rounded? "rounded off to the nearest whole number" i don't see it would be real taken into account how bet payout is calculated which is "round down" to the nearest whole number (as example of 197.97 above) so 9999.51 up to 9999.99 would definately yield 10000 but it will not because it is being rounded down in your system.
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STT
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December 11, 2019, 02:19:05 AM |
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That would be weird if true, theres 10,000 possible whole number returned in the result. To then have 20,000 possible outcomes would be surprising then.
Each time you roll you are generating a decimal, not a whole number. There are over 4 billion possible decimal numbers you can generate and only 0.005% of those decimals can be rounded to 10000. Yep its more interesting then I first thought. I recorded my last roll details and I'll try going through till the final result so I understand better. Some clever statistician could model this and group results to reflect the probability in outcomes. Reminds me of another topic, would you teach your child gambling? Yes I would teach my child maths because its better to know lifes risks then fear the possibilities :p small free white powder package at the airport checkpoint Thats a bad analogy, strawman fallacy or something.
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TheQuin
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December 11, 2019, 03:02:40 AM |
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Yep its more interesting then I first thought. I recorded my last roll details and I'll try going through till the final result so I understand better. Some clever statistician could model this and group results to reflect the probability in outcomes.
There's no clever stats involved. The probability of any number is 10000:1 except 00000 and 10000 which are each 20000:1 chances. Reminds me of another topic, would you teach your child gambling? Yes I would teach my child maths because its better to know lifes risks then fear the possibilities :p
My maths teacher taught me gambling (out of the classroom) when I was doing A Level pure and applied mathematics many years ago. The issue is we need to know what's inside the free thing,
You would know if you took the 30 seconds required to read understand the provably fair tab. small free white powder package at the airport checkpoint Thats a bad analogy, strawman fallacy or something. Absolutely. There is no risk involved in taking a free roll. You can only win.
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freebitco.in PR
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December 11, 2019, 09:58:01 AM Last edit: December 11, 2019, 10:17:29 AM by freebitco.in PR |
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FreeBitco.in arrived at SiGMA Malta 2019 in style! The Golden Lamborghini was the talk of the event, making our first appearance at one of the biggest iGaming conventions in the world a tremendous success! A sneak peek of what happened at Malta! The Bitcoin Community rocked SiGMA Malta 2019 with FreeBitco.in stealing all the attention.
Well, this surely gives a 1 finger salute to all the people that thought that this draw was a scam. Do you know how many people attended this event? This is the kind of publicity that Freebitco.in needs and the girls was also a fine touch to match such a wonderful prize. I assume the car was just for show and not actually bought for the competition, because most people will opt for the prize money instead. Well done freebitco.in team. We're constantly striving and working towards making FreeBitco.in better and more accessible to everyone. Thank you for appreciating our initiative at SiGMA. We believe your support merits more than this, and we'll continue to bring more and more good stuff for you at FreeBitco.in!
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slaman29
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Livecasino, 20% cashback, no fuss payouts.
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December 11, 2019, 10:52:00 AM |
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This is never a good plan. I mean living on interest. Doesn't matter if it the bank or freebitco.in where you get interest from. Even collecting rents make more sense than collecting interest. Interest is only a short term solution till you figure out something else, better. That %4 you get from freebitco.in right now, there is no guarantee that it will go on like this forever. I wouldn't plan my life on this.
You guys might be living in a different country, but in my country if you are making 666 dollars per month you could live a very good life and also keep saving. Plus, my fiat to dollar changes all the time and dollar worths more and more of my fiat anyway every single year because we are a country that's run horribly, USA even under Trump didn't do that bad economically, it is a country that even with all its flaws could be the leader of economical world for a long time. 200K with 4% interest could help me live for 50 years easily (by which time I will 100% be dead considering I am unnecessary fat and eat junk food so much that heart attack might around the corner). So, long story short there are better ways of making money, however this one is enough as well, don't need anything better. I agree! think most proper investors would tell you that the aim of successful finance is to live on passive income, if possible just on interest. If I won a lottery of even 1 million, I would put all of it in a bank and just live on the interest. For me, the lambo is exactly going to do that. 200k $ even if I only earn 4% interest a year is 8k USD a year. That is already MORE than my yearly salary in my country! And every year like you, it will be worth more and more because my currency sucks. I would basically be able to quit my job and start a business. And never touch the 200k. So I'm totally with you!
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UserU
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December 11, 2019, 12:03:28 PM |
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If I won a lottery of even 1 million, I would put all of it in a bank and just live on the interest. For me, the lambo is exactly going to do that. 200k $ even if I only earn 4% interest a year is 8k USD a year. That is already MORE than my yearly salary in my country! And every year like you, it will be worth more and more because my currency sucks.
I would basically be able to quit my job and start a business. And never touch the 200k. So I'm totally with you!
How many % is your country's bank FD interest, by average?
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Betwrong
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I stand with Ukraine.
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December 11, 2019, 12:54:26 PM |
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Yep its more interesting then I first thought. I recorded my last roll details and I'll try going through till the final result so I understand better. Some clever statistician could model this and group results to reflect the probability in outcomes.
There's no clever stats involved. The probability of any number is 10000:1 except 00000 and 10000 which are each 20000:1 chances. ~ When I first read about it in the post by @FinneysTrueVision above, I thought he was wrong. So, it's true then? Hitting any other number is twice as likely than hitting either 00000 or 10000? Does it mean that if a dice site allows you to choose which number to hunt for 9900x multiplier, it is better to choose any other number but 0.00 or 99.99? (Sorry if it's a stupid question, I'm a bit confused now).
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BITCOIN TO THE MOON --> ☾ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿
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