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[Betwrong]

One could guestimate the following based on known factors.

You could do but you would be making the schoolboy error of assuming that variance of luck doesn't exist. Some people just get very lucky and are able to gamble up a very small deposit to a very large balance.

I was going to say the same thing. Overall, assuming that with wagering a certain amount you are definitely going to lose the house edge is a dangerous thing to do. Using the same logic you might think that within 100k tries you are definitely going to hit a 0.01% target at least once(because it "should" happen once in 10k tries). But this is not necessarily the case. Some gamblers lose big money relying on such wrong calculations. The truth is that even a million rolls might not be enough for one person, while another one can hit it from the first try. With 42 million registered users you can be getting both cases quite often.

[macson]

snip

I already transferred with the lowest fee available on Betfury (BTC0.000075) to Freebitco.in and I'm just hoping it clears before the offer expires

me too, i also just did this, transferring my Bitcoin from Betfury with a cheap fee.  i bought FUN tokens with those BTC, well even though the nominal is still small but hopefully it can make it easier for me to bet on Freebitco.

[icopress]

Using the same logic you might think that within 100k tries you are definitely going to hit a 0.01% target at least once(because it "should" happen once in 10k tries). But this is not necessarily the case. Some gamblers lose big money relying on such wrong calculations.

Man, in fact, I absolutely agree with you ... Just recently, I decided to test the doubling strategy, (if you can call it that) but it didn't end as I expected. I assumed that using a 47% chance, and doubling the rate in case of a loss will sooner or later pay for itself, but I could not imagine that with such a high probability I will have 10 losses in a row. So from my experience I can say that not everything depends on statistics.

[justme_gamblin]

You could do but you would be making the schoolboy error of assuming that variance of luck doesn't exist. Some people just get very lucky and are able to gamble up a very small deposit to a very large balance.

Doing math isnt called "schoolboy" anything.  It's just facts.  You cant dispute math.  FBC makes the SAME bet,  it bets that you'll lose before you ever wager 25x.  Otherwise it would have set it's "Bonus account" to a much HIGHER percentage.  It's set at 25% because thats what the math dictates is most likely to happen for it's own benefit.  Thats just common sense.  No "variance" garbage needed.  Besides,  thinking about it any other way is just fantasy and THAT would be the schoolboy error.  I've seen your replies in here and you ALWAYS push the "could have been lucky" excuse every time,  as if you're a huge FBC shill or something,  trying to get people to believe things that are just unrealistic.  I dont do things that way,  I live in reality where I DONT plan on winning lotteries, I dont plan on winning in gambling, and I certainly dont tell others to expect to win either.  Those that are faced with opposition,  usually resort to the "variance" excuse,  which is just that,  it's an excuse.  "Variance" exists in EVERYTHING.  For example,  if time lasts long enough,  it's possible that a fully functional Lambo, complete with logo and a nice paint job would just fall together all by itself.  That is "variance".  Just like it's possible to deposit 1 sat and end up winning all the way to 4000BTC without ever losing.  So trying to base things off "Variance" is completely absurd.  It exists,  but is it practical or realistic to use it as the basis for estimations and probabilities?  No absolutely NOT .  It makes more sense to use common sense math such as what I've already described.  It's simple,  easy to understand, and has a very high probability of being reasonably and more importantly commonsensically close to the truth.

The one that did the "Schoolboy" thinking here is YOU because as I ALREADY MENTIONED,  TIME was a huge factor with this particular "user".  They clearly played for over a LONG time evidenced by the daily/weekly wins,
 etc and when you play for a longer period of time, "variance" becomes less of a factor and house edge plays a greater role.  Play long enough and even house edge isnt going to save you from the inevitable breaking the bank.  It was even evident with this particular user that they mysteriously stopped playing (geeeeee I wonder why that is lol).  When a gambler like this stops,  it's NOT because they won.  It's because they cant play anymore.  Now, if they made 1 HUGE bet (which you cant do in FBC due to it's 20BTC limit),  then variance would play a major role,  more so than house edge.  So ya,  you can go back to school now since you just got schooled in how variance works, what it is, and it's relevance (or lack thereof) to estimation and to a large degree probability formulas .

[STT]

Doubling strategy just the words makes me fear the worst for your chances of a gain vs the risk of loss.   Doubling anything gets expensive fast, offer 2 cents to someone & on some condition  to double it every day you will by end of month owe them 21 million

Golden tickets from the wheel of fortune is about 40k to 1 odds for the largest 50 tickets but overall about 5700 to 1 for any golden ticket which is likely a bit over once a year for the top premium holder.   The Rolex win I would not estimate anyone has won yet as its just 1 ticket out of 1 billion,  It probably does happen in the end because of the amount of spins attempted but will be notable when it happens.  My best hope is for the golden tickets and then to be very lucky on that :p

As far as this end month price bet deal, we got such a rise ignited I wonder whats powering it but I would guess we magnetise to the 50 day average as the point of most significance shared which is 56 or 57k so once reached it could be pivotal I guess.  I dont think we especially then get as great movement before month end so we end in this region.

[justdimin]

One could guestimate the following based on known factors.

You could do but you would be making the schoolboy error of assuming that variance of luck doesn't exist. Some people just get very lucky and are able to gamble up a very small deposit to a very large balance.

I understand that winner may have started with a small amount and got very lucky and gambled a lot of money. But we are talking about a long standing amount of gambling, not like he gambled once and got lucky, we are talking about him gambling thousands every month, that is a lot of money.

This is why it is a shock to many people and most of us have hard time believing this dude started with a few bitcoins at best and managed to reach to 4000+ bitcoins wagered, that is still in the possibility of what could happen, but we are still talking about something that would require a few miracles in a row. Obviously you know what you are talking about and we do not, you can see what he deposited and we do not, which is why we can't say this happened or that happened because we all would be guessing it. However you should also realize how hard it is for us to understand something like a few bitcoins turning into few thousand bitcoin wagering.

[StelioKontos]

Man, in fact, I absolutely agree with you ... Just recently, I decided to test the doubling strategy, (if you can call it that) but it didn't end as I expected. I assumed that using a 47% chance, and doubling the rate in case of a loss will sooner or later pay for itself, but I could not imagine that with such a high probability I will have 10 losses in a row. So from my experience I can say that not everything depends on statistics.

lol, the "doubling strategy" has a name: martingale

[LUCKMCFLY]

One could guestimate the following based on known factors.

You could do but you would be making the schoolboy error of assuming that variance of luck doesn't exist. Some people just get very lucky and are able to gamble up a very small deposit to a very large balance.

I understand that winner may have started with a small amount and got very lucky and gambled a lot of money. But we are talking about a long standing amount of gambling, not like he gambled once and got lucky, we are talking about him gambling thousands every month, that is a lot of money.

This is why it is a shock to many people and most of us have hard time believing this dude started with a few bitcoins at best and managed to reach to 4000+ bitcoins wagered, that is still in the possibility of what could happen, but we are still talking about something that would require a few miracles in a row. Obviously you know what you are talking about and we do not, you can see what he deposited and we do not, which is why we can't say this happened or that happened because we all would be guessing it. However you should also realize how hard it is for us to understand something like a few bitcoins turning into few thousand bitcoin wagering.

I think I would not be able to make a bet of 400Bitcoin, it is that only with a fraction of 4 Bitcoin is already too much, a person who makes this type of bets must be a whale that has a lot of bitcoin, you must have a lot of security to risk losing So much money, that type of player that I admire, just thinking about betting that huge amount already scares me. Although Freebitco.in gambling is so easy and makes you play and play, I think the player just got carried away by adrenaline.

[justme_gamblin]

I think the player just got carried away by adrenaline.

Actually the more likely scenario as that of mixing stolen BTC.  No one in their right mind (other than a hacker who is playing with free BTC) is going to gamble away the amount of BTC seen here (It would take 188 to 800BTC to pull off wagering 4000+BTC).  It's a pretty well known fact (provable with the BTC ledger) that FBC is used as sort of a mixer for those that like to play with other people's BTC.  They dont care if they win or lose so long as they get back mixed BTC.  Anonymous casinos are just one of a plethora of options for mixing BTC,  its mostly just personal preference on which options a hacker will use.  Some use multiple options, others dont.  The end result is still the same.  Mixed BTC.  Note that it's MIXED and not "cleaned" BTC.  There is no such thing as "cleaned" BTC since it's not a privacy coin like Monero.  The idea is to mix BTC so much with "clean" BTC that by the time someone tries to block or blacklist it (if its consolidated into a single or only a few addresses),  it's to late and would affect others who had nothing to do with the theft to begin with (including themselves).

[TheQuin]

One could guestimate the following based on known factors.

You could do but you would be making the schoolboy error of assuming that variance of luck doesn't exist. Some people just get very lucky and are able to gamble up a very small deposit to a very large balance.

I understand that winner may have started with a small amount and got very lucky and gambled a lot of money. But we are talking about a long standing amount of gambling, not like he gambled once and got lucky, we are talking about him gambling thousands every month, that is a lot of money.

This is why it is a shock to many people and most of us have hard time believing this dude started with a few bitcoins at best and managed to reach to 4000+ bitcoins wagered, that is still in the possibility of what could happen, but we are still talking about something that would require a few miracles in a row. Obviously you know what you are talking about and we do not, you can see what he deposited and we do not, which is why we can't say this happened or that happened because we all would be guessing it. However you should also realize how hard it is for us to understand something like a few bitcoins turning into few thousand bitcoin wagering.

The one thing they did to help keep the winning streak going for so long was to make very few rolls each day. Someone using auto-bet or a script would have made the same number of bets they did in 3 months in 1 day. The smaller the sample size the bigger the chance of variance occurring. That can obviously work against you as well.


@justme_gamblin You are not fooling anyone by making a newbie account to spread the same lies and sling the same mud you just did in your real account. Unlike your unsubstantiated bullshit the allegations against you come with evidence of criminal activity on your part:
[Flag] - "broke_tradah" installing hidden backdoor.

Edit:

There really isn't anything anyone here wants to say to you here other than this:

I have supported this flag, and it is now active... peddling a bot with claims of "guaranteed" winning is one thing... peddling malware designed to steal usernames/passwords and wallet files is a completely different level of scum.

[Timelord2067]

@justme_gamblin You are not fooling anyone by making a newbie account to spread the same lies and sling the same mud you just did in your real account. Unlike your unsubstantiated bullshit the allegations against you come with evidence of criminal activity on your part:
[Flag] - "broke_tradah" installing hidden backdoor.

I think people should go that one step further and also DT distrust these users via the [Link] then placing

Code:

~justme_gamblin
~broke_tradah

as there is evidence they are attempting to build a default trust via their various alts.

[TheQuin]

@justme_gamblin You are not fooling anyone by making a newbie account to spread the same lies and sling the same mud you just did in your real account. Unlike your unsubstantiated bullshit the allegations against you come with evidence of criminal activity on your part:
[Flag] - "broke_tradah" installing hidden backdoor.

I think people should go that one step further and also DT distrust these users via the [Link] then placing

Code:

~justme_gamblin
~broke_tradah

as there is evidence they are attempting to build a default trust via their various alts.

And tag it as an ALT account.

He posted this from his real account and everyone ignored him because of his reputation of being an untrustworthy obnoxious troll.

Well remembered but I'm not sure why you are discounting that they might have actually won a lot of Bitcoins.

Sup TheQuack:  Winning less than one has lost is not considered winning or being successful which is what the post was referring to.  So "Why" are they discounting it?  Because they are not out to shill FBC with unreasonable thoughts.  It's unreasonable to assume that this person won anything at all due to the high house edge of FBC and the amount of LONG time the account ID has been seen (if it was an actual account of course which no one can prove or disprove including you lol).  As you said yourself, the longer one plays, the more LIKELY they are to lose.  So there you have it,  the "Why" of why someone would assume they lost instead of won using your own speeches on gambling and lengths of time.

As for how someone gambles this much BTC,  thats an interesting subject to discuss.  IMO these are likely not legit BTC.  If you take a look you can see that many addresses that have deposited into known FBC addresses come from known hacked BTC addresses (there are monitors you can look at online to see this or you can research it yourself).  It's common knowledge that one of the MANY ways to filter/disperse stolen/hacked BTC is to use gambling sites (FBC isnt the only one that is used for this purpose but it is among the top 3), tumblers, anonymous exchanges,  etc.  They all serve the same purpose and it's mostly just personal preference as to which one someone may use.  The other option is that this isnt a real account at all and is just a dummy account by FBC itself.  All of these are plausible explanations as to how anyone would put this much BTC on the line for next to no return at all.

It is far too much of a coincidence for anyone to believe that another newbie just came along and made the same claim.

I think the player just got carried away by adrenaline.

Actually the more likely scenario as that of mixing stolen BTC.  No one in their right mind (other than a hacker who is playing with free BTC) is going to gamble away the amount of BTC seen here (It would take 188 to 800BTC to pull off wagering 4000+BTC).  It's a pretty well known fact (provable with the BTC ledger) that FBC is used as sort of a mixer for those that like to play with other people's BTC.  They dont care if they win or lose so long as they get back mixed BTC.  Anonymous casinos are just one of a plethora of options for mixing BTC,  its mostly just personal preference on which options a hacker will use.  Some use multiple options, others dont.  The end result is still the same.  Mixed BTC.  Note that it's MIXED and not "cleaned" BTC.  There is no such thing as "cleaned" BTC since it's not a privacy coin like Monero.  The idea is to mix BTC so much with "clean" BTC that by the time someone tries to block or blacklist it (if its consolidated into a single or only a few addresses),  it's to late and would affect others who had nothing to do with the theft to begin with (including themselves).

He using an ALT to hide from his flag and try and fool people into taking him seriously.

On the subject of illegitimate BTC anyone using freebitco.in as a mixer is a fool. If approached by a law enforcement agency with evidence of wrongdoing we would help them put together the deposits and withdrawals. For real anonymity they need to use a service designed for the purpose that doesn't keep any logs.

[justme_gamblin]

Oh I see,  so now people are to be ridiculed for stating the same or similar type of common sense facts.  An anonymous casino (which it appears you're now stating FBC is NOT even though it's marketed as such) being used as a mixer is not a "unique" idea by ANY stretch.  Do some research,  I suggest starting with the BTC ledger (also not a "unique" idea) which is quite the valuable tool when searching for truths.

As for your other dribble,  LOL  you are just flailing like a blind a fish out of water.  Get some help man,  you're mental health doesnt appear to be very healthy.

[TheQuin]

Oh I see,  so now people are to be ridiculed for stating the same or similar type of common sense facts. 

It would take anyone only a few seconds to see the writing style and content of your two accounts are identical.

An anonymous casino (which it appears you're now stating FBC is NOT even though it's marketed as such) being used as a mixer is not a "unique" idea by ANY stretch.  Do some research,  I suggest starting with the BTC ledger which is quite the valuable tool when searching for truths.

We have no interest in our site being used for criminal activities. All law-abiding gamblers will remain anonymous.

As for your other dribble,  LOL  you are just flailing like a blind a fish out of water.  Get some help man,  you're mental health doesnt appear to be very healthy.

You are the one needing a psychiatrist. 327 posts throwing bullshit claims against us is a very unhealthy obsession. Maybe when one of your hacking victims manages to make a successful prosecution against you then you'll have many years staring at a prison cell wall to mull that over.

[justme_gamblin]

Like I said,  get some help man.  You're more paranoid than a San Francisco meth head.  You seem to think everyone is "out to get you" with the way you talk lol.  You're not as important as you seem to think you are.

[TheQuin]

Stop hiding behind an ALT and grow a pair and use your real account. People deserve to know which scumbag they are dealing with.

[Reatim]

Looks Like My lucky day has Come and for a chance may have opportunity at last to Win even top 10 in Lottery this time?



Hope this big win may bring me luck for once.

Stop hiding behind an ALT and grow a pair and use your real account. People deserve to know which scumbag they are dealing with.

Just Let It fade mate , Eventually troll Will stop if we don't give them a time to continuously Bump the thread.

Anyway Lets just Enjoy the spinning and the freebies lol.

[TheQuin]

Just Let It fade mate , Eventually troll Will stop if we don't give them a time to continuously Bump the thread.

I only replied a few times to give him enough rope to hang himself with. It's obvious that he's the only person who could have written those when you look at his old post history. I don't have any intention of doing anything other than ignoring him from here on.

[Kakmakr]

Looks Like My lucky day has Come and for a chance may have opportunity at last to Win even top 10 in Lottery this time?

Hope this big win may bring me luck for once.

Stop hiding behind an ALT and grow a pair and use your real account. People deserve to know which scumbag they are dealing with.

Just Let It fade mate , Eventually troll Will stop if we don't give them a time to continuously Bump the thread.

Anyway Lets just Enjoy the spinning and the freebies lol.

No you have it wrong my friend. This guy is out to destroy Freebitco.in's reputation. His main account was tainted and now he is using Alt accounts to attack Freebitco.in. It is just #TheQuin's responsibility to protect Freebitco.in, because he is paid to moderate this thread and to communicate with it's users.

It is a pity that the dirty washing is washed in public and unfortunate that there are no way to resolve this, because this has been going on for months now.

I have to say, I have been a user of Freebitco.in for many years now and I have not had any bad experiences with them. Let's hope the parties can come to some sort of resolution and that this will end soon.  

[TheQuin]

It's difficult to balance these two:

Eventually troll Will stop if we don't give them a time to continuously Bump the thread.

This guy is out to destroy Freebitco.in's reputation. His main account was tainted and now he is using Alt accounts to attack Freebitco.in. It is just #TheQuin's responsibility to protect Freebitco.in, because he is paid to moderate this thread and to communicate with it's users.

I'll get criticised by people rightly annoyed at the troll ruining the discussion here by bringing more attention to him when I reply or I get accused of having something to hide by not responding to ludicrous allegations. Unfortunately, the "No trolling" rule is one that the forum very rarely moderates. This isn't an ordinary troll who will get bored when they don't get the attention they seek. It's a psychotic criminal with an agenda.