rpietila public diary -- Episode II

[rpietila]

It's been a busy week. Partly due to delays in the repatriation of my profits from bitcoin sales, partly due to my willingness to invest some of it back on favorable terms, partly due to the epic volatility which gives both daytrading and arbitraging opportunities. But now it's over and I have some 40 minutes to write about what actually matters.

Simply put: Bitcoin is going to transform the world. Last March we calculated the EV for one bitcoin to be in the thousands. It sounded far-fetched. Now the price has already crossed a thousand (redefined as $1/mBTC), and can be expected to hit $10 next year. The recent EV calculation gives values that can reach $1,000/mBTC, and that is the average, weighted value, which considers the chances that it goes to zero!

The issue is not, how big numbers we are able to choke out, but the mode (hard to find a good word) bitcoin operates. When it gains more users, its value grows, which interests speculators, etc. etc., there is a virtuous cycle going on, and it has resoundingly proven itself over these 5 years and several bubblepops. I don't think anything can stop this, and the logical conclusion is that it won't be stopped. Like leaven in the dough, it works until the whole of it is leavened.

Some technologies have made a near-universal adoption, such as bank accounts, mobile phones, and email. In Finland, you are practically required to have all of these in order to have any dealings with the government, for instance. Yet none of them (save bank account) is sanctioned by law. I believe Bitcoin will soon join this group of de facto used technologies. While leavening the system, it does away with fiat money (including debt), and we will have a quite interesting new world when all is completed.

Can this happen without the shedding of blood? There are many revolutions which have been violent, but the technological revolutions have in general been quite peaceful. When email was introduced, did people riot on the streets? Mass executions after mobile phones came? WWW brought all kinds of calamities? Not really. There is one trapped government in the world (USA), which cannot realistically see that its iron grip on mankind could be held indefinitely. They may attempt something, but it's futile. Their belief that they need to control the world is wrong. And if they try, they fail. (They control the biggest bitcoin address, though )

I have been thinking these kinds of things. My threads are designed to be more dense (less cluttered) than the usual forum content. I have none whatsoever interest in arguing. Today it's been necessary to completely remove posts from one user who just cannot understand that the readers are not interested in anything that he is able to produce (considering the focus of this thread, elsewhere he's doing well and has saved my time by writing along the lines I would have posted). There is no law that requires me to explain. There are so many threads and you can start your own. There are 3 mock-threads about me, mentioned by name. If you feel better reading them, go for it.

My intention is to research, write about and promote Bitcoin Economics. To this end, I often use examples from my own life (they are good, because they were the way I got to think about a certain concept). There has been no way for me to continue writing about these matters but by divulging the number of bitcoins I have (approx. BTC10,000). If this puts me in the 50 bitcoin richest in the world, praise the Lord! Today my share of global exchange trading volume has been even significantly higher than the share of coins (~1%).

Bitcoin strips you naked. Everyone sees how much money you have. And at the same time it is impossible to know who has what. It is a very different world where we are entering. And I am liking it. Sure there are many haters to this openness, but I think the bulk of it is just a knee-jerk reaction to something new. Then many would like to have as many coins but don't. To them I would advice to read all my threads, and consider, how to get the optimal number which is still available, even though the megajackpot amounts are not available any more.

[AnonyMint]

Risto I don't know if you are sleeping and I didn't intentionally post this during my morning in order to defeat your option to quickly delete should you so desire. I just happen to reply at this time.

I don't think anything can stop this, and the logical conclusion is that it won't be stopped.

Nothing can stop it until the rate of adoption slows. Period.

Realize the operative word is slows and that is because the growth model is almost entirely as a speculative asset.

The design of Bitcoin for a currency is very poor as compared to credit cards or Paypal. If you don't believe me, try to use it like a credit card for a week at the merchants who accept Bitcoin. And I don't mean a dearth of merchants, I mean it just doesn't work well even where it is accepted, if you are an average person with average lack of technical acumen. And there is a significant design error w.r.t. to transaction fees which will worsen as the market cap increases and the coin rewards halve a few more times, thus years from now.

Besides government fouling it up noting I have explained how government can destroy/control at-will, the only other credible threat would be an altcoin that changes the universe; meaning it would have to be revolutionary in a way that was so incredibly compelling that it sucked the life out of Bitcoin.

Neither of those remote possibilities are likely.

Government is in fact endorsing Bitcoin. And I suspect the reason is (partially) because they've been trying to get rid of cash (1000 Euro bill recently gone, daily ATM limits dropping throughout Europe, similar in USA with banks refusing to let one withdraw large amounts of cash), they've announced plans to move towards electronic currency in order to apply a negative interest rate to all balances by decree (both in the USA and EU and also the IMF has announced a net worth tax).

And Bitcoin is so much better for catching tax evaders than cash, because everything is stored on the public ledger, and as I explained already that without strong anonymity (which is not built-in to Bitcoin), then via divide-and-conquer it is trivially easy to force all Bitcoin users to require identification on all their trades (spends).

The Bitcoin-killer altcoin is not likely, not so much due to the illusory network-effects, but because no one has shown the capability to create an altcoin that offers anything that creates value other than the spiraling speculation growth model which Risto just avowed.

Edit: my current thinking is absent government killing it or a killer altcoin, Bitcoin adoption slows once all of those who are tech savvy are in. If someone finds a way to make Bitcoin super easy for people like my mother, then the adoption could continue all the way into the entire population, because for example my mom eventually adopted Paypal. But here is the pertinent revelation, she has no reason to switch from Paypal, it already serves the purposes she needs from an electronic currency. Let that thud sink in. She and most average people will refuse to buy a speculative asset.

One caveat is to note not all citizens in all developing countries can be merchants with Paypal, so this is a potential market opportunity, but other than for international money transfers so far I see no other mainstream Bitcoin adoption whatsoever in this market segment. Note the recent sending of Bitcoin for typhoon victims is an example where Paypal probably would have failed us, as it is difficult to withdraw from Paypal in the Philippines (only certain banks accepted, only certain types of accounts at those banks, and in general one can not be receiving payments as a merchant). Also the ability to side-step China's capital controls by buying BTC.

Risto when it comes to understanding internet marketing, I am more knowledgeable and experienced than you. So pay attention, just as I do pay attention when you speak about trading strategy because you live and breathe it daily and you are born to do it. I was born to fiddle with and understand phenomena and even infrequently implement consumer market movers of some significance.

Yet none of them (save bank account) is sanctioned by law. I believe Bitcoin will soon join this group of de facto used technologies.

Sorry the latter doesn't follow from the former, meaning de facto adoption of technology has nothing to with that it is or isn't sanctioned by law. And the latter is impossible (with 10 minute blocks, non-zero transaction fees, etc). Reality check.

While leavening the system, it does away with fiat money (including debt), and we will have a quite interesting new world when all is completed.

We all wish that was true, but it is in fact impossible, at least the current design of Bitcoin.

I would rather you look at Bitcoin as potentially the first stepping stone in that direction, as my Cool Page was the first that led to Friendster which led to Myspace which led to Facebook. Whether Bitcoin will be modified (unlikely due to vested interests), offchain takes over (possibly), the government will take over (most likely in my analysis), or an altcoin will outcompete (less likely) remains to be seen.

[rpietila]

Anonymity not. Forcing the 3% to be transparent not. Risto this is seriously bad. This isn't some Monopoly game. I know you are having fun and hitting the sweet spot of your trading talent, but come on there is more at stake here.

The forces of evil must move slowly, mainly because:

- Their commanders must remain secret to continue commanding
- Their whole system is based on lies upon lies, which must be constantly covered and built upon ad ridiculium
- Their organization is the opposite of agile
- They must appear good/reasonable to the masses.

The 9/11 was a turningpoint, after which the astute people on the side of freedom saw that the U.S. will descend to a (world) police state. But see how little they have accomplished in 12 years! All the gains in spying power have come at the expense of greatly increased information (and later monetary) freedom to everyone.

Bitcoin is now going much faster than the dark side. Your threats may come to fruition in 5-10 years, do you not think that we can outpace them with new innovation in the meanwhile? I am eagerly awaiting the pictures of the new roofs that have been constructed merely a week from the typhoon! In the old system, taking the funds to the site of need would have taken 3 months alone. This is only one of the myriad of examples that is carried out by a tiny population (1.2M) of bitcoin users.

Yet - there are very few truly powerful thinkers/influencers/powercenters (ie. supernodes) in Bitcoin economy currently. The number is going to grow exponentially in the following months. This means a corresponding increase in our power, whereas the power of the dark side stays constant at best.

Many have asked, whether I am afraid to be so rich and yet speak so directly. Why should I be afraid? First of all, I don't come from a family of great wealth, and I know how it feels to live through an adolescence spending practically nothing. The wealth has come to me for a purpose, and I feel that this is the purpose now. Only twice have I sensed a grave personal danger coming from the current system. Both times I disclosed it in the forum that I was then contributing. The first time I got all my confiscated property back after 7.5 months. The second time I was locked in a mental ward for 6 weeks. But I am still alive, and grateful for the experiences.

Besides, Bible says that we should not fear the one who has the power to kill (Satan), but the one who can not only kill, but throw you in hell (God). I have chosen which one to fear. We should submit to authority but not fear it, (unless we do evil, because authorities are there to punish evil).

[Rampion]

My intention is to research, write about and promote Bitcoin Economics.

I have been running a bitcoind full node on a home office server and found that given enough restarts and running duration, bitcoind overcomes its default 8 outgoing connections and accepts incoming connections up to a default maximum of 125. At that point, the network upload bandwidth consumed by bitcoind degrades the performance of other apps on my local area network.

To restore overall performance, I arranged for a separate internet connection for the server hosting bitcoind. I chose the least expensive broadband option, with upload bandwidth being the primary criterion. For the past couple of weeks, I have been running bitcoind this way, consuming all the upload bandwidth provided.

I mention this because last spring you got me excited about the Supernode concept, and one your points was to run a full node. Would you be interested in helping me promote the establishment of dedicated bitcoind full nodes by bitcoin holders reading this forum?

Running a full node is absolutely necessary, especially given the fact that the number of full nodes is currently dangerously low.

I always recommend to my acquaintances to run bitcoin-qt, regardless of the hassle related to the first synch. I also recommend them to have it always running. From one side is the most secure client apart from offline solutions; from the other a healthy number of full nodes is absolutely necessary to have a healthy network.

[AnonyMint]

Some recognition of the points I raised several days ago upthread, even you have some photo evidence upthread that appears to show aid not reaching the far flung areas (although we can't see if donated and possibly consumed sardine cans are hidden in those half-destroyed homes):

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/93697/un-worries-aid-has-not-reached-philippine-victims

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/540225/palace-cops-must-stop-sale-of-us-ready-to-eat-meals

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/543605/palace-denies-aid-has-not-reached-yolanda-victims

Imagine if the BTC could go directly to them (if BTC was spendable for them) and I didn't have to convert to pesos and send via manual money transfers, i.e. I had to fill up forms with a ball pen and my physical presence for each recipient of funds.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/542373/tacloban-mayor-says-hes-still-hurt-by-aquinos-words

Amid criticisms he should have brought in more relief to help storm victims in the Visayas, Quinapondan residents said they were happy at just seeing boxer Manny Pacquiao in person.

“Even without the relief, seeing him in person and shaking hands with him are already enough to make us happy,” said Lita Palines, 70, a Quinapondan resident.

Pacquiao had admitted the 10 truckloads of relief items he had ordered transported from General Santos City to typhoon-devastated areas were not enough and would benefit only a few people.

Meanwhile the BIR has confiscated Manny's billions accusing him of not paying taxes in the USA for his fight profits there. And the President seems to be jealous of Manny's popularity and has endorsed the BIR action against him.

Bitcoin is now going much faster than the dark side. Your threats may come to fruition in 5-10 years, do you not think that we can outpace them with new innovation in the meanwhile?

I am hoping we can. I am happy to see this attitude from you. When you say "Bitcoin" I think you know you refer to an ecosystem and a phenomenon that is not necessarily limited to one crypto-currency design. It may be, but that is not 100% certain. Screw my efforts that is irrelevant to the point I am making.

Apologies to consume your time to write that reply. I do understand now why you are so busy making trades. And you know of course I am not against arbitrage.

Besides, Bible says that we should not fear the one who has the power to kill (Satan), but the one who can not only kill, but throw you in hell (God). I have chosen which one to fear. We should submit to authority but not fear it, (unless we do evil, because authorities are there to punish evil).

When God sent some officials on foot to warn a man of torrential rains with possibly severe flooding and he was sitting on his porch and said "no thanks God will save me", then God sent a boat to the guy trapped by the rising flood and he said from the second story "no thanks God will save me", then God sent him a helicopter and he said from the roof top "no thanks God will save me". Then he died and perhaps went to heaven (we can't falsify it).

So to ignore the facts (e.g. about Bitcoin's design flaws) is to I think be obstinate. Now if we say that flaws aren't a hindrance to the big picture because that ecosystem is building momentum which isn't just one design (as if God ever intended for a lack of diversity on earth when he said "go forth and multiply"), then I personally view that as not obstinate. Which is based on my perspective and analysis of the issues, which may or may not be correct (we will see).

About doing evil, no human is above sin. I prefer to get the facts correct. And to make correct appraisals of where to focus effort. That is what I am in the midst of now. Trying to understand the reality, not the delusion of it all. That includes researching where the "supernodes" are heading.

But see how little they have accomplished in 12 years! All the gains in spying power have come at the expense of greatly increased information (and later monetary) freedom to everyone.

The QE ended up as dollar bond issues throughout the developing world. Thus what they've been successfully doing the past 12 years is running up the debt of the world, and preparing all the tracking technologies, for the global implosion that will begin before 2020 (and after 2015).

Proverbs 22:7
New International Version (NIV)
7 The rich rule over the poor,
    and the borrower is slave to the lender.

They have not been idle. If you and others don't see it, that means they've been even more successful in slow cooking the frogs.

And the internet has become more controlled by the large majors (e.g. one can't realistically surf the internet without Google's cookie getting into the browser with its ads on every other site) and my analysis (educated opinion) is that Bitcoin is also flawed in ways that fits right into the overall plan.

Sorry I don't see that we are winning. I see the tech savvy people fell right into the honeypot, as designed by the NSA. Satoshi was a Japanese guy. Yeah right.

who just cannot understand that the readers are not interested in anything that he is able to produce

It is inaccurate to assume I can not and do not understand that most readers (especially those following your thread) are interested in BTC's price and adoption.

Thus I think they should be aware of the facts. The facts are not about any one person. We try our best to discuss with the least verbiage. It is difficult to remain concise and impart deeper knowledge. For one commentator to not dominate someone else's diary is desirable.

The mass market, around 70% of the world's population, doesn't have the benefit of getting a credit card or bank account. Now they can skip a generation of infrastructure investment and go straight to Bitcoin or any other coin with a mobile phone and a coin wallet.

And nearly none of them have the savvy or ability. You won't be zapping your Android wallet to the lady selling fish in the wet market in a 3rd world country even within 5 years. There is simply no compelling reason for them to do so. The transactions would be much too slow any way. Have you ever seen how fast the market vendor chops, dispenses, and cashiers multi-tasking. And then you expect them to slow down to put their wet stinky fingers on their smart phone and then wait 10 minutes for a 1-confirmation transaction.

Reality check!

Some internet businesses we can't do now because of the model of credit cards. One of these might have the potential to drive Bitcoin adoption. I have some ideas specifically in mind, but I am holding them close to my chest.

but I think the bulk of it is just a knee-jerk reaction to something new.

+1

If this is the basis of your confidence to dismiss the expertise of others who have something contrary to say about Bitcoin, that would not make me too confident about you doing thorough research. I assume you instead have deeply analyzed the technology and know it as the back of your hand. And if I ask you technical questions, then you would be able to answer them with ease.

For example in my case, my entire life has been about new things. I am not allergic to the new, I have consistently been embracing the new. I assume programming for the internet in 1996 is before you did.

[AnonyMint]

If I could change the topic before I stop posting in your thread, I just wanted to share this.

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/93437/mom-puts-up-bounty-for-missing-daughter-in-tacloban

A mother working in the Middle East comes home to find her mother, two daughters, and elder sister are all dead or missing. She explains the difficulty getting a driver to bring her to Tacloban back in early November the vehicles were being flagged down and the food was being taken. So those are the sort of reports I was hearing about. I suppose it has improved by now.

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/93715/uk-embassy-denies-report-on-yolanda-aid-not-reaching-victims

A Japanese foreign aid worker was also quoted as saying that not enough food was getting to the people and that local officials have been taking the goods.
“There isn’t enough food getting through to people. We don’t have evidence but we believe it is being taken by officials,” Japanese relief worker Shiratori Koti was quoted as saying.

And here is the politics:

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/529621/roxas-muscling-romualdez-out-of-tacloban-city-hall

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/529883/aquino-roxas-romualdez-strike-deal

Romualdez won a third term opposite Liberal Party candidate Bem Noel, the former An-Waray representative, in the May 2012 polls.
Roxas is the president on-leave of the ruling party but the President and even his sister Kris had campaigned for Noel, a friend of the President.

he mayor suggested that the Department of National Defense provide Tacloban with a military force “to secure the perimeter because we’ve heard of unverified reports that some lawless elements have been trying to take advantage of the [aid] caravan as far as Samar, and there were rumors of some NPA (New People’s Army) members coming down,” the lawmaker said.
Inmates, facing death, also escaped from the city jail.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/543457/romualdez-recounts-how-govt-withheld-help-in-yolanda-aftermath

He recalled Roxas as telling him: “You have to be very careful because you are a Romualdez, and the President is an Aquino.”
Then the issue that he was being asked to resign came out in the news, a story that the mayor denied.
“I corrected that. I wasn’t being asked to resign. I went to my lawyers that night and communicated with Manila, and said ‘What is the need for this letter stating my functions, that I could no longer function and I could no longer do that?’ I was asking my lawyer, ‘How do I write such a letter?’ My lawyer advised me: ‘Don’t write the letter. You may be deemed as resigning.’ So I didn’t write the letter,” he said, his voice breaking.

[AnonyMint]

Currently merchants are being "dominated" by the system, while consumers are being babied and protected.  

Now imagine the merchants are the consumers. Then you see where I am headed with this.

[rpietila]

Bitcoin is now going much faster than the dark side. Your threats may come to fruition in 5-10 years, do you not think that we can outpace them with new innovation in the meanwhile?

I am hoping we can. I am happy to see this attitude from you. When you say "Bitcoin" I think you know you refer to an ecosystem and a phenomenon that is not necessarily limited to one crypto-currency design. It may be, but that is not 100% certain. Screw my efforts that is irrelevant to the point I am making.

Yes, in my speech "Bitcoin" has begun to mean the whole monetary and liberty emancipation. 

So to ignore the facts (e.g. about Bitcoin's design flaws) is to I think be obstinate. Now if we say that flaws aren't a hindrance to the big picture because that ecosystem is building momentum which isn't just one design (as if God ever intended for a lack of diversity on earth when he said "go forth and multiply"), then I personally view that as not obstinate.

Matters such as Bitcoin's desing flaws, are quite high. Similar as the fundamental flaws of the previous system. Only very talented people should make the research of them their main job. We both belonged to this category in the silver era, and now in Bitcoin era. I don't think we should introduce technical matters to the general public, as we are still in the situation that most people would benefit more (EV-wise) by just buying in with moderate amounts and letting the profits run (than by endlessly analysing all the possible points of failure, which do remain, but postponing your buying loses you money BIG TIME, I mean you). This also strengthens the Bitcoin economy more than talk which is founded in possible dangers far in the future.

But see how little they have accomplished in 12 years! All the gains in spying power have come at the expense of greatly increased information (and later monetary) freedom to everyone.

The QE ended up as dollar bond issues throughout the developing world. Thus what they've been successfully doing the past 12 years is running up the debt of the world, and preparing all the tracking technologies, for the global implosion that will begin before 2020 (and after 2015).
[/quote]

Don't concentrate on FUD-news too much. I don't follow the news on QE or anything for that matter, just happily concentrate on Bitcoin:
1) See how I'm doing, not bad ha?
2) When Bitcoin grows big enough, it just eats up all the problems of the world. Some of them may need help but it is best to attack from a position of upper ground, and at a time when victory is ensured (Sun Tzu, et.al.)

Proverbs 22:7
New International Version (NIV)
7 The rich rule over the poor,
    and the borrower is slave to the lender.

They have not been idle. If you and others don't see it, that means they've been even more successful in slow cooking the frogs.

I am quite serious in my assessment that I serve exactly in the place that fits me best and gives the most leverage to those who read me. I am quite certain that you are also doing what you should. Even caring about their cooking is admitting that they have something in you. Jesus said, "the prince of this world is coming, and in me he has nothing."

You quote is actually true in both levels:
- Rich (much BTC) rule over (employ) the poor (few BTC). This is righteous.
- The borrower (in current system, practically all the govs, most businesses, and those people that in any way have any debt, even indirectly by being citizens of debt-enslaved countries) are slaves to the lenders (the Rothschild and their cronies). This is unrighteous and will be ended.

And the internet has become more controlled by the large majors (e.g. one can't realistically surf the internet without Google's cookie getting into the browser with its ads on every other site) and my analysis (educated opinion) is that Bitcoin is also flawed in ways that fits right into the overall plan.

Correct, but I don't have the time to concentrate on that just now. It will resolve itself automatically (perhaps requiring hard work from you, but automatic for me ) In the same way as my 6-week old threads are now considered "classics" but 7 weeks ago they did not exist...

who just cannot understand that the readers are not interested in anything that he is able to produce

It is inaccurate to assume I can not and do not understand that most readers (especially those following your thread) are interested in BTC's price and adoption.

This is about another person, whose contribution to the thread was to 3 times announce that he does not understand how arbitrage works, and therefore does not believe anything else I say. Fine for him, I deleted the crap and left only the explanation how it works. But in the future I will not be so "kind" to waste my time with such. It is not kindness at all when considered from the readers' point of view, to spend your time unnecessary explaining matters that are general knowledge and could be found with a little effort, if the time could be used for some new valuable contribution. I know this is the case only rarely, so those opportunities must be seized, even if it means less time for paperwork.

The mass market, around 70% of the world's population, doesn't have the benefit of getting a credit card or bank account. Now they can skip a generation of infrastructure investment and go straight to Bitcoin or any other coin with a mobile phone and a coin wallet.

And nearly none of them have the savvy or ability. You won't be zapping your Android wallet to the lady selling fish in the wet market in a 3rd world country even within 5 years. There is simply no compelling reason for them to do so. The transactions would be much too slow any way.

Small (token, often unredeemable) coins have always been a form of payment, and I see no reason why this would change even in Bitcoin economy. I have spent countless hours designing a silver-backed coinage for the monetary system that never came. Now all this knowledge can be put into general use

If this is the basis of your confidence to dismiss the expertise of others who have something contrary to say about Bitcoin, that would not make me too confident about you doing thorough research.

Ftr was not criticizing you.

I assume you instead have deeply analyzed the technology and know it as the back of your hand. And if I ask you technical questions, then you would be able to answer them with ease.

Shoot.

I assume programming for the internet in 1996 is before you did.

I started doing spreadsheet simulations about the world economy and various other topics in 1990, I assume before you did.

[vokain]

And the internet has become more controlled by the large majors (e.g. one can't realistically surf the internet without Google's cookie getting into the browser with its ads on every other site) and my analysis (educated opinion) is that Bitcoin is also flawed in ways that fits right into the overall plan.

Correct, but I don't have the time to concentrate on that just now. It will resolve itself automatically (perhaps requiring hard work from you, but automatic for me ) In the same way as my 6-week old threads are now considered "classics" but 7 weeks ago they did not exist...

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/172286-tech-giants-team-up-to-battle-nsa-surveillance-governmental-snooping

[rpietila]

true and i'd love to do the same.. however my concern is this... you park funds and coins overseas on an exchange that can get shutdown anytime especially in a place like china where things can get ugly... next, he only has unrealized profit until he's able to cash out or get more coins than he transferred otherwise there's huge risk of losing both due to exchange shutdown right? so i only wanted to understand if he was somehow minimizing his risk by withdrawing excess yuans to hedge against that... other than all i can add is that it's a very simple yet very effective trading strategy... i just wish i started doing this much earlier...

Withdraw is not a problem, I can buyback and withdraw everything I have in the exchanges, in 1-2 hours, 12 hours at most.

Of course if something happens unexpectedly, then the funds are trapped until they become available again. But in my past I have already been target of a "governmental denial-of-service attack" where all my funds were confiscated for months. So I know how it feels and can accept the risk. I don't send more to the exchanges than I can afford to lose, and the probability of permanent loss with the current exchanges is very much smaller than with the scammy exchanges of the past.

I disclose the reply made to Bitstamp KYC questionnaire:

1. How did you learn about Bitcoin?
2. The purpose of trading on Bitstamp?
3. What type of trading will be conducted? Buying/selling/both? Estimated trade volume per month?
4. Which bank are you using? Please provide the complete address and SWIFT code.
5. Estimated amount that you would be depositing/withdrawing to/from your Bitstamp account per month (in USD and BTC)?
6. What is the origin of the funds which you are depositing to your Bitstamp account? Please provide any financial documentation confirming its origin.

1. We have had an investment club since 2010. Bitcoin was a general table topic there since October, 2010.

2.-6. I am "rpietila" in Bitcointalk.org, recently estimated to be among the 100 largest holders of bitcoins. It started by purchasing about 4500 bitcoins for EUR 10000 in late 2011 in Mt.Gox. All my current trading position (of about 3000 bitcoins, part of which is in currencies) derives from this purchase. I am a businessman with midsize (7 figure) operations in Finland and Estonia, the funds are from the business originally.

My current trading strategy is based on doing large-scale arbitrage between different exchanges and global (though small) OTC trade. To accomplish this, I generally keep the funds (BTC/fiat) in exchanges, but trade actively to the direction where I can sell and buy at favorable prices. My trading volume may reach about 1000 BTC per day in Bitstamp (and similar amounts in other exchanges). Even though the monthly volume can be very high, it does not result in much net increase/decrease of my BTC position.

All USD deposits to Bitstamp are money that I have previously withdrawn for risk management reasons. There is no net USD coming from anywhere. I have a 1-2 month plan of withdrawing in total about 1 million USD, after which it may be redeposited if needed, but I will also use it for purchasing of other assets.

In the long term, if BTC exchange rate continues to go up, I plan on making strategic divestments that are a certain percentage of my holdings.

BTC deposits/withdrawals are made mainly between exchanges for the purposes of the arbitrage strategy explained above. Their flow is bi-directional and also cancels out over time.

4. The bank is Lopen Osuuspankki (Pohjola Bank), OKOYFIHH. Kauppatie 2, 12700 Loppi FINLAND.

You already have my passport picture, that has not changed.

[bclcjunkie]

Thanks Risto! Appreciate the answers!

[AnonyMint]

If you really want a test on the technology, what is the probability of winning 2 blocks in a row with 41% of the network hashrate. Or what is the equation that relates block propagation time to orphan rate. Or for a more difficult one, please explain why an exclusive-or (xor) in Salsa/20's hash in Litecoin's scrypt breaks cryptographic analysis linearity over Z/2n. But I'd prefer you don't waste your time digging up the answers. I mention those only so you will have some idea of the level of my knowledge. Let me deal with the technology details as you've said I am the worker bee.

I assume programming for the internet in 1996 is before you did.

I started doing spreadsheet simulations about the world economy and various other topics in 1990, I assume before you did.

Hehe, I was campaigning house-to-house for Ross Perot in California. I had started to dig into NAFTA and what was really going on in the world. But I was much too busy on programming and other matters and it sat on the back burner until the gong was struck on 9/11/2001.

Btw, by 1990 I had already been influential in the first iterations of mainstream GUI commercial software. So I wasn't using the spreadsheet software, I was one of the pioneers making the first iterations of the GUI software you and others were using.

I am satisfied with your answers. Thanks.

I do have one item I want to nitpick on as follows...

But see how little they have accomplished in 12 years! All the gains in spying power have come at the expense of greatly increased information (and later monetary) freedom to everyone.

The QE ended up as dollar bond issues throughout the developing world. Thus what they've been successfully doing the past 12 years is running up the debt of the world, and preparing all the tracking technologies, for the global implosion that will begin before 2020 (and after 2015).

Don't concentrate on FUD-news too much. I don't follow the news on QE or anything for that matter, just happily concentrate on Bitcoin:
1) See how I'm doing, not bad ha?

The QE did in fact ended up as massive dollars loans in the developing world. And there is now a huge overhang of corporate debt in the developing world. This is not FUD. It is a fact. It can be verified. I personally verified it by reading the business section of the local paper every day for a few weeks and seeing $billion dollar bond issues by San Miguel, FilInvest, etc.. every day! Every day! Every day!

You can see it here, there are condos, new malls, new subdivisions going up like crazy. Forbes identified all the points I had already wrote about this.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/21/heres-why-the-philippines-economic-miracle-is-really-a-bubble-in-disguise/

Risto as you admitted you don't have time to know what is really going on outside your focused trading "fishbowl". You are justifiably too busy trading and helping to grow the ecosystem which I appreciate. So I agree with you that you should focus on what you do best, and I should continue to do what I do best with my head inside a jar. I am very detailed in my research. I try my best to base my analysis in fact.

We have the benefit that in 5 years we will know the outcome.

And the internet has become more controlled by the large majors (e.g. one can't realistically surf the internet without Google's cookie getting into the browser with its ads on every other site) and my analysis (educated opinion) is that Bitcoin is also flawed in ways that fits right into the overall plan.

Correct, but I don't have the time to concentrate on that just now. It will resolve itself automatically (perhaps requiring hard work from you, but automatic for me ) In the same way as my 6-week old threads are now considered "classics" but 7 weeks ago they did not exist...

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/172286-tech-giants-team-up-to-battle-nsa-surveillance-governmental-snooping

In all due respect, I believe that to be a Hegelian farce (convincing thesis-antithesis-solution used to conceal the true goal) and show put on to keep us from acting to save ourselves. They make it appear they are on our side, but they are not. Any way, there is no sense in me stirring the pot on this one. It is better I do something than talk. Stirring the pot with scary talk doesn't really help much.

God bless.

On the subject of action, here are the first photos I have received of material purchased with donated funds. Apologies these are not too clear, because they borrowed a neighbor's laptop and used the webcam to snap these. I would prefer photos with the entire family or families in the photo. And photos which show the context of the materials in repairs or being eaten. But this person deserves appreciation for rushing the photos to me via facebook (so the NSA can confirm this  ). This is for the roofless concrete house pictured on the prior page (the one that suffered the least damage of those being helped and thus I gave the least funds). Note they have informed me that the going rate for a carpenter has jumped from 300 pesos ($8) to 700 pesos ($18) per day in the Samar area. I believe it because prices of everything is higher there due to shortages, and in general skilled filipino construction workers are fully employed because of the massive building spree that is being driven by the QE dollars ending up over here as corporate bond issues.



50 kilogram sack of rice:

[johnmatrix]

you are in the news, lol

http://actualidad.rt.com/economia/view/113864-927-personas-mitad-bitcoins

its in spanish, just translate it

[AnonyMint]

Hope you saw this thread analyzing the value of altcoins using least squares fit.

[rpietila]

OK guys, back to the diarish writing:

This week I have suffered from a flu, not so good/active time. I spent it running calculations and simulations on USD/BTC rate and they confirmed my view that bitcoin is overbought compared to its trend, and that the correct play in this situation is to keep much less than 100% of your portfolio in bitcoins. I have acted accordingly, and that has taken some of my energy also. (Details on the research hopefully later.)

I got tired of Wall Observer. Tried to bet with Goat about bitcoin going to $0.45, but he gave such bad odds that I fare much better by selling my bitcoins and buying back at $0.45. I had planned this to be my final act there, but now promised to only come back when bitcoin price hits $0.50, with no bet.

I was very satisfied with myself propping up the price for the duration of my sale yesterday. Nimble broker action netted at least $3k better price.

[Voodah]

You really think that bitcoin is going to $0.50 now?

I've been following your stuff for months and am really starting to get confused now.

$0.50 / mBTC

[AnonyMint]

Photo update. The before and after Yolanda pics of the house in Bogo (northern Cebu). The amount I gave this family (donated by Risto and those who donated to Risto) is not sufficient to rebuild the house. Because at the time of sending I didn't have confidence of how damaged the house was and it is my responsibility to distribute the funds according to need. I had described upthread as using the window as the door. They bought some food (not shown) and some medicines and mosquito repellent (shown). They are thinking of using the remaining $220 to build a small shack to live in. The girl shown has 1 and 3 year old boys, mother died this year, and father has gone far away since Yolanda to seek construction work.

She wrote:

THE HOUSE

before:
/""""\""\
L________!
L________!

AND
after:
/ """"\
L________!

The 2 become 1.
Yolanda tnx grr!

[wachtwoord]

Tried to bet with Goat about bitcoin going to $0.45, but he gave such bad odds that I fare much better by selling my bitcoins and buying back at $0.45.

He laid 1:1.

[rpietila]

Guys + girls,

The Episode II of my diary is nearing its end. I started it in 3.11.2013, in anticipation of a rally in bitcoin. About the same time I had a very intense Facebook campaign. The price started moving immediately, and so quickly that I issued my initial bearish call in 19.-20.11. That proved to be premature - the price still went up and crossed the important $1 threshold in the following days. It soon became apparent that it was overextended from the trendline however, and therefore exceedingly difficult to keep its uptrend. From the dead cat bounce (10.12.) following the double top (30.11.&4.12.), I have been selling more coins. I have devoted my last 2 weeks to researching about the price, whether I want to enter into such a trade. So far it is working well, selling more into rallies and buying some back at dips. I expect that the downtrend takes us to somewhere between $0.3 and $0.5 in the following months.

When the price was still rising, I had the mood and time to conduct Bitcoin Economics research. There is a list of the threads in the OP. I feel that in the short time quite many important topics have been presented and discussed. These threads will not become obsolete because of short-term events or swings in price.

There are some important matters that I must move on to. Perhaps some still remember the Supernode Network (still no better name ), which I promised will be started at $1.4/mBTC. As I now see it, reaching that figure is not happening any time soon, so I will have the opportunity to take the time off, and let the bubble-bust cycle run its natural course. If Wall Observer is any guide, we are now strongly in the "denial" phase (consult the well-known chart for details).

If you are heavy in bitcoin, and especially if this is your first bubble, I would ask you to consider if you still feel good if the price goes to $0.3 or $0.4. Otherwise it might be a time to sell a fraction of the holdings now at the record prices.

For those new in bitcoin, this is a very good time to enter with experimental/speculative funds, and buy more when the price goes down.

I do not suggest daytrading bitcoin to anyone: like all speculative markets, it is heavily manipulated, you pay fees, waste valuable time playing a zero-sum game and generally end up on the losing side of the trade. Optimally you only accumulate bitcoin until you have enough (never sell), and once you have enough, you gradually start to sell/buy things with it (and never buy back coins). This minimizes the problems outlined above.

Thank you for all the wonderful community and contributors!

[farfiman]

You are a genius, a prophet, argumentative, cocky and sometimes just darn wacky

but never boring.

come back soon