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Question: What do you think would happen if ticket price changed to 0.05 BTC?
Jackpot will be higher - more will play and many people will still purchase at least 0.25 or more - 37 (39.4%)
Jackpot will be the same - there will be more people playing but many will bet less - 17 (18.1%)
Jackpot will be lower - many people will bet the bare minimum - 40 (42.6%)
Total Voters: 93

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Author Topic: [BITLOTTO] Mar 1 draw over $2000 or 50BTC! Tickets now 0.1 BTC for Apr 5  (Read 49735 times)
Stephen Gornick
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April 04, 2012, 05:16:21 AM
 #241

The winner appears to be:
0023da9af152f9dd17501b060df7d5dbd762ca880cb3e731e40c391af34aadf7
whose Bitcoin tx was:
277a5da2a46b0ba9ddaa33fa374bd9acd4a0ea227badf5d3e3d14d9a05238c81
1DW4mtFwkLAbfc4ZBvcXypeV6NhfDryrni
Payment was made: 2012-03-29 17:19:58

These are the unofficial numbers and need to be double checked but the results are likely correct.

Looks like that player bought 10 tickets in a row and the winning ticket was the first of the 10.  So about a 112X payout (280 / 10 / 0.25).  i.e., could have quit right after one ticket and still won and had a 1120X payout  Smiley

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finway
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April 04, 2012, 10:00:52 AM
 #242

Congratulations.

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April 04, 2012, 03:25:01 PM
 #243

I think seeding the next lotto with 100 BTC may be a bad idea. 

Even though there is no mathematical difference between 400 people buying 400 tickets and 1 person buying 400 tickets (the odds of your single ticket purchase winning are the same) people do not think logically when it comes to money and specifically when it comes to gambling.

Here is the thinking that may limit this month's lotto:  why should I buy a ticket when it is almost certain that the guy who bought 400 tickets is going to win?  As I said the odds of my single ticket purchase winning are still the same, but somehow it feels different to buy one ticket against a single 400 ticket purchse.

Time will tell.

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April 04, 2012, 05:38:51 PM
 #244

people do not think logically when it comes to money and specifically when it comes to gambling.

Every BitLotto draw has a winner (and just one winner) so it is not a straight comparison to a MegaMillions type of draw.  This means that there is no balance carryover to the next draw if there is no jackpot winner.  BitLotto pays out one jackpot of 99% of wagers / ticket sales.  MegaMillions pays out a jackpot plus other winnings when 5 of 6 are won, for instance.

This latest record MegaMillions had ticket sales of $1.5 billion and the jackpot was $656 million.  In all that media coverage last week, not once did I see the rake (difference between total wagers and total payouts) reported.  Only after did I see this NPR article which says the payouts are about 60% (i.e., 40% rake).   That was enough to make the state governments salivate over this latest lotto draw.
 - http://www.npr.org/2012/04/03/149937075/state-legislatures-to-benefit-from-mega-millions

It is possible that a MegaMillions jackpot could be higher than the total wagered for that draw.  Because of the lucrative payoff this is one reason these large jackpots attract so many ticket buyers.  BitLotto's design won't give this same benefit of having "better odds".  Your odds don't change between when there is a large BitLotto jackpot or a small one.  But that doesn't mean the size of the jackpot doesn't have an influence that motivates people to participate.

I would venture to guess that the MegaMillions mindset would apply with BitLotto as well -- the larger the jackpot the more interest in participating.

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April 04, 2012, 09:49:55 PM
 #245

As I said the odds of my single ticket purchase winning are still the same, but somehow it feels different to buy one ticket against a single 400 ticket purchse.
Perhaps, but with with many people, they can now see that with only 0.25 they can take the 100 BTC. Usually the more BTC put in the faster it grows. Some people wait till the end to see if it's big enough, now with the large payment at the beginning they know for sure it's over 100 so they give it a shot.

My guess is that May will be even bigger!

*Next Draw Feb 1*  BitLotto: monthly raffle (0.25 BTC per ticket) Completely transparent and impossible to manipulate who wins. TOR
TOR2WEB
Donations to: 1JQdiQsjhV2uJ4Y8HFtdqteJsZhv835a8J are appreciated.
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April 04, 2012, 10:25:11 PM
 #246

Mine too! Congrats btw to April's winner who scooped plenty enough for 2 BTF Lab's Singles for just a 2.5 BTC worth of  bets I believe & with their first one of just over $1 entry being the jackpotorama, lets see how many Singles value we get to in May ~ got to be worth a 0.25 coin mad spend in anyone's book to see if the gods of crypto are smiling on you this month  Grin

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April 05, 2012, 01:15:19 AM
 #247

And the winner is-
Jackpot size: 280.66 BTC
Lucky Block: 174196 Mega Millions Numbers: 11 35 38 41 52 Mega Ball 40
Mixer Hash: 1e3c407515...
Winner's Hash: 277a5da2a46b0ba9ddaa33fa374bd9acd4a0ea227badf5d3e3d14d9a05238c81
Winner: 1DW4mtFwkLAbfc4ZBvcXypeV6NhfDryrni
Ticket list:
http://bitlotto.com/2012april4.txt

Congrats!

Perhaps they know they won already as I saw a recent tx to the address for 0.01337. Perhaps seeing if it was theirs?

Anyways congratulations! It sure would be great if you mentioned the win on the forum!!!

May 2 already over 115 BTC.

*Next Draw Feb 1*  BitLotto: monthly raffle (0.25 BTC per ticket) Completely transparent and impossible to manipulate who wins. TOR
TOR2WEB
Donations to: 1JQdiQsjhV2uJ4Y8HFtdqteJsZhv835a8J are appreciated.
Daily Anarchist
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April 05, 2012, 01:47:37 AM
 #248

Any chance of changing the payout in the future to 100% or maybe even 101% of total amount bet? That way, instead of making your money from the prize pool, you'd be making your money strictly off of advertisements? You could be the first lottery in the world where pot odds are POSITIVE for every bettor! Those pots could be HUGE!

Discover anarcho-capitalism today!
bitlotto
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April 05, 2012, 02:29:35 AM
 #249

Any chance of changing the payout in the future to 100% or maybe even 101% of total amount bet? That way, instead of making your money from the prize pool, you'd be making your money strictly off of advertisements? You could be the first lottery in the world where pot odds are POSITIVE for every bettor! Those pots could be HUGE!
Perhaps one day. Right now my ad revenue is pretty close to zero. I'm almost thinking of taking them off to clean up the page. But I kind of want to support other bitcoin businesses too.

Perhaps the jackpot will eventually be 99.9% if it grows big enough.

*Next Draw Feb 1*  BitLotto: monthly raffle (0.25 BTC per ticket) Completely transparent and impossible to manipulate who wins. TOR
TOR2WEB
Donations to: 1JQdiQsjhV2uJ4Y8HFtdqteJsZhv835a8J are appreciated.
Daily Anarchist
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April 05, 2012, 02:46:48 AM
 #250

Any chance of changing the payout in the future to 100% or maybe even 101% of total amount bet? That way, instead of making your money from the prize pool, you'd be making your money strictly off of advertisements? You could be the first lottery in the world where pot odds are POSITIVE for every bettor! Those pots could be HUGE!
Perhaps one day. Right now my ad revenue is pretty close to zero. I'm almost thinking of taking them off to clean up the page. But I kind of want to support other bitcoin businesses too.

Perhaps the jackpot will eventually be 99.9% if it grows big enough.

Keep up the good work! You'll get there.

Discover anarcho-capitalism today!
baldrick
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April 05, 2012, 04:27:21 AM
 #251

And the winner is-
Jackpot size: 280.66 BTC
Lucky Block: 174196 Mega Millions Numbers: 11 35 38 41 52 Mega Ball 40
Mixer Hash: 1e3c407515...
Winner's Hash: 277a5da2a46b0ba9ddaa33fa374bd9acd4a0ea227badf5d3e3d14d9a05238c81
Winner: 1DW4mtFwkLAbfc4ZBvcXypeV6NhfDryrni
Ticket list:
http://bitlotto.com/2012april4.txt

Congrats!

Perhaps they know they won already as I saw a recent tx to the address for 0.01337. Perhaps seeing if it was theirs?

Anyways congratulations! It sure would be great if you mentioned the win on the forum!!!

May 2 already over 115 BTC.

1DW4mtFwkLAbfc4ZBvcXypeV6NhfDryrni Is one of mine.  I had a total of 33.25 BTC in.  I don't know where the leet came from.  I guess it was a tip from someone.

My current plan is to buy two BFL Singles with the jackpot.
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April 05, 2012, 11:41:05 AM
 #252

1DW4mtFwkLAbfc4ZBvcXypeV6NhfDryrni Is one of mine.  I had a total of 33.25 BTC in.  I don't know where the leet came from.  I guess it was a tip from someone.

My current plan is to buy two BFL Singles with the jackpot.
Congrats!!!! I'll try to pay sometime in the next day or so.

*Next Draw Feb 1*  BitLotto: monthly raffle (0.25 BTC per ticket) Completely transparent and impossible to manipulate who wins. TOR
TOR2WEB
Donations to: 1JQdiQsjhV2uJ4Y8HFtdqteJsZhv835a8J are appreciated.
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April 05, 2012, 01:22:14 PM
 #253

And the winner is-
Jackpot size: 280.66 BTC
Lucky Block: 174196 Mega Millions Numbers: 11 35 38 41 52 Mega Ball 40
Mixer Hash: 1e3c407515...
Winner's Hash: 277a5da2a46b0ba9ddaa33fa374bd9acd4a0ea227badf5d3e3d14d9a05238c81
Winner: 1DW4mtFwkLAbfc4ZBvcXypeV6NhfDryrni
Ticket list:
http://bitlotto.com/2012april4.txt

Congrats!

Perhaps they know they won already as I saw a recent tx to the address for 0.01337. Perhaps seeing if it was theirs?

Anyways congratulations! It sure would be great if you mentioned the win on the forum!!!

May 2 already over 115 BTC.

1DW4mtFwkLAbfc4ZBvcXypeV6NhfDryrni Is one of mine.  I had a total of 33.25 BTC in.  I don't know where the leet came from.  I guess it was a tip from someone.

My current plan is to buy two BFL Singles with the jackpot.

Interesting.  Your address is oddly familiar to me, do I know you?

(BFL)^2 < 0
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April 06, 2012, 05:23:41 AM
 #254


Interesting.  Your address is oddly familiar to me, do I know you?

I very much doubt it.  I haven't used this particular handle much.
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April 07, 2012, 02:52:03 AM
 #255

Cap the fucking ticket limit, How the fuck can anyone who doesnt own 100 tickets win? "because if you have a ticket you have a chance"
Yeah well i think the guy who BOUGHT the odds is an asshole, Fully understandable that anyone with simmilar capabilities would've done the same, But c'mon he had like a 20% chance to win
Sure "he still could've lost" But let's change the ratio, Say he Continued to buy shitloads of tickets, He could crank up his chance to win as high as 99%!
Ya but someone who ONLY spends 0.25 could take it all away!! No one is guaranteed a win. Every SINGLE ticket has the same odds. Obviously the more you have the more likely you are to win. You could look at it too, that people who spend a lot have more to lose to someone who bought only one.

With raffles it's pretty much your ticket verses the rest. It doesn't matter if one person owns them or hundreds. All you care about is if YOURS wins!

Good luck if you entered!

*Next Draw Feb 1*  BitLotto: monthly raffle (0.25 BTC per ticket) Completely transparent and impossible to manipulate who wins. TOR
TOR2WEB
Donations to: 1JQdiQsjhV2uJ4Y8HFtdqteJsZhv835a8J are appreciated.
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April 07, 2012, 02:53:37 AM
 #256

Payment has been paid for the April 4 winner.
https://blockexplorer.com/tx/1016c5b81f5e856843bdbee51b7bf4eaba05a6e7404e505b3e4fa3c24367c178

Congrats!

*Next Draw Feb 1*  BitLotto: monthly raffle (0.25 BTC per ticket) Completely transparent and impossible to manipulate who wins. TOR
TOR2WEB
Donations to: 1JQdiQsjhV2uJ4Y8HFtdqteJsZhv835a8J are appreciated.
John (John K.)
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April 07, 2012, 03:17:43 AM
 #257

Cap the fucking ticket limit, How the fuck can anyone who doesnt own 100 tickets win? "because if you have a ticket you have a chance"
Yeah well i think the guy who BOUGHT the odds is an asshole, Fully understandable that anyone with simmilar capabilities would've done the same, But c'mon he had like a 20% chance to win
Sure "he still could've lost" But let's change the ratio, Say he Continued to buy shitloads of tickets, He could crank up his chance to win as high as 99%!
Lol. It wouldn't have mattered if 400 guys bought at 0.25 each or 1 guy bought at 100btc. The odds for the others is still the same. See the logic yet?

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April 07, 2012, 04:54:04 AM
 #258

-
Lol. It wouldn't have mattered if 400 guys bought at 0.25 each or 1 guy bought at 100btc. The odds for the others is still the same. See the logic yet?
fine fine i retract my previous statement

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April 07, 2012, 01:44:42 PM
 #259

Cap the fucking ticket limit, How the fuck can anyone who doesnt own 100 tickets win? "because if you have a ticket you have a chance"
Yeah well i think the guy who BOUGHT the odds is an asshole, Fully understandable that anyone with simmilar capabilities would've done the same, But c'mon he had like a 20% chance to win
Sure "he still could've lost" But let's change the ratio, Say he Continued to buy shitloads of tickets, He could crank up his chance to win as high as 99%!
Lol. It wouldn't have mattered if 400 guys bought at 0.25 each or 1 guy bought at 100btc. The odds for the others is still the same. See the logic yet?
LOL As predicted here:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=34007.msg835161#msg835161

I am sure he is not the only one with this misconception - just the only one so far to post about it.  It is an easy mistake to make.  I did for a minute before thinking it through and that is why I posted about it.  Emotion versus Math!

Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security.  Read all about it here:  http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/  Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!
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April 07, 2012, 05:04:01 PM
 #260

-
Lol. It wouldn't have mattered if 400 guys bought at 0.25 each or 1 guy bought at 100btc. The odds for the others is still the same. See the logic yet?
LOL As predicted here:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=34007.msg835161#msg835161

I am sure he is not the only one with this misconception - just the only one so far to post about it.  It is an easy mistake to make.  I did for a minute before thinking it through and that is why I posted about it.  Emotion versus Math!
Exactly, Please let my stupidity die off now... >.<

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