Why Bitcoin will collapse in price.

[porc]

Yes Bitcoin was a great  (pyramid like) scheme, that one could have profited from as a speculator. However I only buy when I see REAL VALUE and I only SAVE in real money. Now I dont see any of this in bitcoin (as I said I think the price will collapse as I dont think bitcoin will become money).

But now we see that gold lost a third of its last winter highs (silver even more than that). How on earth can you consider those shiny metals as real value really? A few years ago silver got nearly as high as $50 per ounce (it was a perfect bubble right then) and this year it fell to below $18 per ounce... How come, pork?

I dont look at price to determine underlying value.

Do you buy bullion (or coins for that matter) or stick to some derivatives? I remember you also said that you have some stock in miners, right? Do you buy them without respect to price too?

I buy bullion and coins. Again, I said that I dont look at price to DETERMINE value. However I do look at price once I have determined underlying value, to see if it is higher or lower than my determined value. I did buy a considerable amount of miners. However I also hold physical metal as that is a vital part of any precious metal portfolio.

I dont care if you buy the metals, as I think that nobody can pump anything over the long term. Either I am right or wrong. So if you dont want to buy precious metals but bitcoin I dont care, as I can buy more metal at a cheaper price.

[deisik]

But now we see that gold lost a third of its last winter highs (silver even more than that). How on earth can you consider those shiny metals as real value really? A few years ago silver got nearly as high as $50 per ounce (it was a perfect bubble right then) and this year it fell to below $18 per ounce... How come, pork?

I dont look at price to determine underlying value.

Do you buy bullion (or coins for that matter) or stick to some derivatives? I remember you also said that you have some stock in miners, right? Do you buy them without respect to price too?

I buy bullion and coins. Again, I said that I dont look at price to DETERMINE value. However I do look at price once I have determined the value, to see if it is higher or lower than my determined value. I did buy a considerable amount of miners. However I also hold physical metal as that is a vital part of any precious metal portfolio.

So you are actually a goldbug?

This explains a lot... What would you do if your government decided one day to confiscate to buy from you all those shiny pieces of metal at some fixed price?

[Peter Lambert]

Yes. At the moment I dont see any facts that disprove my opinion. I only see a speculative mania (that might continue for a while, who knows).

If bitcoin does become what you hope it will, I will have to correct my theory. However I am as strongly convinced that  bitcoins are (worthless)tokens not money as you are that bitcoins are money not tokens.  

To summarize:  Where you see adoption I see a speculative mania.
                         Where you see money I see worthless tokens.
                         Where you see value I see high prices (and no value).
                         Where you see scarcity I see abundance.
                    

You see what you are looking for. What would adoption look like to you? I see an increasing number of people around the world using bitcoins for an increasing number of things.

What would money look like to you? I traded something for bitcoins, after some time I traded those bitcoins for something I wanted. That looks like it is functioning as money.

What would value look like to you? Right now I check my balance and I see I have X bitcoins. I can choose to hold those X bitcoins or trade them for Y. The person selling Y seems to agree with me that those X bitcoins have a value of Y.

I really fail to see abundance here. Maybe you could expand on that?

[porc]

But now we see that gold lost a third of its last winter highs (silver even more than that). How on earth can you consider those shiny metals as real value really? A few years ago silver got nearly as high as $50 per ounce (it was a perfect bubble right then) and this year it fell to below $18 per ounce... How come, pork?

I dont look at price to determine underlying value.

Do you buy bullion (or coins for that matter) or stick to some derivatives? I remember you also said that you have some stock in miners, right? Do you buy them without respect to price too?

I buy bullion and coins. Again, I said that I dont look at price to DETERMINE value. However I do look at price once I have determined the value, to see if it is higher or lower than my determined value. I did buy a considerable amount of miners. However I also hold physical metal as that is a vital part of any precious metal portfolio.

So you are actually a goldbug?

This explains a lot... What would you do if your government decided one day to confiscate to buy from you all those shiny pieces of metal at some fixed price?

Well I have stored my metals at a secure place nobody knows about.

Also: I dont know why you call me a gold bug. I just like real money and distrust fiat. I also have investments in asia stocks.

[porc]

You see what you are looking for. What would adoption look like to you? I see an increasing number of people around the world using bitcoins for an increasing number of things.

Well, I could turn it around and say: You see what you are looking for. As I said, I see it as a speculative mania. I have nothing more to add.

What would money look like to you? I traded something for bitcoins, after some time I traded those bitcoins for something I wanted. That looks like it is functioning as money.

Well, just because some small number of people did what you refer to, doesnt mean its real money. I have adressed already, why I feel bitcoin is not real money (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=361037.msg3926046#msg3926046).

What would value look like to you? Right now I check my balance and I see I have X bitcoins. I can choose to hold those X bitcoins or trade them for Y. The person selling Y seems to agree with me that those X bitcoins have a value of Y.

Just because somebody agrees with you that something has value, doesnt mean it actually has value. Its like saying: It has a price today, so why does it not have value. Enron also had a price once.

I really fail to see abundance here. Maybe you could expand on that?

21 million plus numerous altcoins people can switch to is absolute abundance, especially if nobody wants the damn tokens.

I have explained already, why I feel bitcoin is not scarce: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366523.0

[deisik]

So you are actually a goldbug?

This explains a lot... What would you do if your government decided one day to confiscate to buy from you all those shiny pieces of metal at some fixed price?

Well I have stored my metals at a secure place nobody knows about.

Also: I dont know why you call me a gold bug. I just like real money and distrust fiat. I also have investments in asia stocks.

Do you really hope that they don't know that you possess some metal? A few guys here insist that even bitcoin is not anonymous whatever (and what they say might actually be so, I just dunno), then why do you think the fact that you buried your gold in the backyard of your home will somehow help you? They won't come after gold, they will come after you!

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...

[porc]

So you are actually a goldbug?

This explains a lot... What would you do if your government decided one day to confiscate to buy from you all those shiny pieces of metal at some fixed price?

Well I have stored my metals at a secure place nobody knows about.

Also: I dont know why you call me a gold bug. I just like real money and distrust fiat. I also have investments in asia stocks.

Do you really hope that they don't know that you possess some metal? A few guys here insist that even bitcoin is not anonymous whatever (and what they say might actually be so, I just dunno), then why do you think the fact that you buried your gold in the backyard of your home will somehow help you? They won't come after gold, they will come after you!

Lol at you trying to argue that gold that can be stored outside of the country at unknown locations is less anonymous than the totally transparent bitcoin.

[Peter Lambert]

I really fail to see abundance here. Maybe you could expand on that?

21 million plus numerous altcoins people can switch to is absolute abundance, especially if nobody wants the damn tokens.

I have explained already, why I feel bitcoin is not scarce: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366523.0

There are only 21 million coins on the longest cryptographic blockchain. The blockchain upon which they rest is a key characteristic which constrains their abundance. This is like claiming gold is not scare because it is just an element, and look how much of these other elements we have sitting around!

[porc]

I really fail to see abundance here. Maybe you could expand on that?

21 million plus numerous altcoins people can switch to is absolute abundance, especially if nobody wants the damn tokens.

I have explained already, why I feel bitcoin is not scarce: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366523.0

There are only 21 million coins on the longest cryptographic blockchain. The blockchain upon which they rest is a key characteristic which constrains their abundance. This is like claiming gold is not scare because it is just an element, and look how much of these other elements we have sitting around!

Try to read the links.

[deisik]

Do you really hope that they don't know that you possess some metal? A few guys here insist that even bitcoin is not anonymous whatever (and what they say might actually be so, I just dunno), then why do you think the fact that you buried your gold in the backyard of your home will somehow help you? They won't come after gold, they will come after you!

Lol at you trying to argue that gold stored that can be stored outside of the country at unknown locations is less anonymous than the totally transparent bitcoin.

It doesn't matter where it is stored, you will show that place yourself or go to jail if you persist (or just happen to forget where you squirreled away your stash). In any case you won't be able to sell it without a chance of being caught for illegal activity

And if it is stored outside of the country, then it is no more physical than gold certificates or whatever...

[Peter Lambert]

This explains a lot... What would you do if your government decided one day to confiscate to buy from you all those shiny pieces of metal at some fixed price?

Well I have stored my metals at a secure place nobody knows about.

Having the metals stored in a secure place does not help you any if it is illegal to trade things for that gold, or transport the gold (how are you going to sneak it through checkpoints on the highway, security at the airport?). It would actually be easier for the government to stop people using gold than for them to stop bitcoins.

[porc]

Do you really hope that they don't know that you possess some metal? A few guys here insist that even bitcoin is not anonymous whatever (and what they say might actually be so, I just dunno), then why do you think the fact that you buried your gold in the backyard of your home will somehow help you? They won't come after gold, they will come after you!

Lol at you trying to argue that gold stored that can be stored outside of the country at unknown locations is less anonymous than the totally transparent bitcoin.

It doesn't matter where it is stored, you will show that place yourself or go to jail if you persist (or just happen to forget where you squirreled away your stash). And if it is stored outside of the country, then it is no more physical than gold certificates or whatever...

Nobody KNOWS I actually have gold. Get it in your head. Also, I will be long gone, before a dictatorial government gains such power. There were many warning signs before Hitler actually killed his political enemys. Many people (like Thomas Mann) fled Germany because they could see what was happening.

Anyway, we are arguing a point, which is not relevant. I dont believe bitcoin will be money, even in a free market. Simple.

[Peter Lambert]

I really fail to see abundance here. Maybe you could expand on that?

21 million plus numerous altcoins people can switch to is absolute abundance, especially if nobody wants the damn tokens.

I have explained already, why I feel bitcoin is not scarce: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366523.0

There are only 21 million coins on the longest cryptographic blockchain. The blockchain upon which they rest is a key characteristic which constrains their abundance. This is like claiming gold is not scare because it is just an element, and look how much of these other elements we have sitting around!

Try to read the links.

Aha, I looked at the link and I see your problem. You tried to make up your own definition of scarcity and then argue using your own definitions of other words why bitcoins cannot fit into that box. This is something like a strawman argument. If you want to have decent debates, you must agree to use the same definitions for words as everybody else uses.

[porc]

Having the metals stored in a secure place does not help you any if it is illegal to trade things for that gold

Black markets will accept gold/ silver coins. Bitcoin wont be accepted as it is not anonymous, and anybody holding bitcoins can EASILY be traced. So much easier than when you trade physical things. Governments couldnt have asked for a more transparent system than bitcoin (maybe thats why the US senate liked it?).

, or transport the gold (how are you going to sneak it through checkpoints on the highway, security at the airport?). It would actually be easier for the government to stop people using gold than for them to stop bitcoins.

Its easy to cross a border by foot. Also as I said, it is important to store gold in countries, where you have a safe political climate.

Lol at you believing it is hard for the government to stop bitcoin: ITS TOTALLY TRANSPARENT.

Again we are arguing a point that is not relevant: I dont believe bitcoin is money, and it wont be successful even in a totally free market.

[porc]

I really fail to see abundance here. Maybe you could expand on that?

21 million plus numerous altcoins people can switch to is absolute abundance, especially if nobody wants the damn tokens.

I have explained already, why I feel bitcoin is not scarce: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366523.0

There are only 21 million coins on the longest cryptographic blockchain. The blockchain upon which they rest is a key characteristic which constrains their abundance. This is like claiming gold is not scare because it is just an element, and look how much of these other elements we have sitting around!

Try to read the links.

Aha, I looked at the link and I see your problem. You tried to make up your own definition of scarcity and then argue using your own definitions of other words why bitcoins cannot fit into that box. This is something like a strawman argument. If you want to have decent debates, you must agree to use the same definitions for words as everybody else uses.

No. The term is from wikipedia and a generally accepted definition by most economists. Again if nobody wants the damn things, they are not scarce. Also the numerous alt coins people might switch to is a problem ignored by bitcoiners.

[tsoPANos]

Well, I have a different opinion,
Bitcoin will not fail. It has been helping people with transactions for the past 4 years, and it became very popular.
As more and more people adopt bitcoin, it will continue to thrive, no matter what governments think.

[Peter Lambert]

I really fail to see abundance here. Maybe you could expand on that?

21 million plus numerous altcoins people can switch to is absolute abundance, especially if nobody wants the damn tokens.

I have explained already, why I feel bitcoin is not scarce: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366523.0

There are only 21 million coins on the longest cryptographic blockchain. The blockchain upon which they rest is a key characteristic which constrains their abundance. This is like claiming gold is not scare because it is just an element, and look how much of these other elements we have sitting around!

Try to read the links.

Aha, I looked at the link and I see your problem. You tried to make up your own definition of scarcity and then argue using your own definitions of other words why bitcoins cannot fit into that box. This is something like a strawman argument. If you want to have decent debates, you must agree to use the same definitions for words as everybody else uses.

No. The term is from wikipedia and a generally accepted definition by most economists. Again if nobody wants the damn things, they are not scarce. Also the numerous alt coins people might switch to is a problem ignored by bitcoiners.

Clearly people want the damn things, since there are people paying to get them. So they have a demand, so they are scarce. And I addressed the point about altcoins already a couple posts ago, since that is where I thought you were going with the scarcity argument when you first brought it up. These arguments have been debunked many times before.

[porc]

I really fail to see abundance here. Maybe you could expand on that?

21 million plus numerous altcoins people can switch to is absolute abundance, especially if nobody wants the damn tokens.

I have explained already, why I feel bitcoin is not scarce: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366523.0

There are only 21 million coins on the longest cryptographic blockchain. The blockchain upon which they rest is a key characteristic which constrains their abundance. This is like claiming gold is not scare because it is just an element, and look how much of these other elements we have sitting around!

Try to read the links.

Aha, I looked at the link and I see your problem. You tried to make up your own definition of scarcity and then argue using your own definitions of other words why bitcoins cannot fit into that box. This is something like a strawman argument. If you want to have decent debates, you must agree to use the same definitions for words as everybody else uses.

No. The term is from wikipedia and a generally accepted definition by most economists. Again if nobody wants the damn things, they are not scarce. Also the numerous alt coins people might switch to is a problem ignored by bitcoiners.

Clearly people want the damn things, since there are people paying to get them. So they have a demand, so they are scarce. And I addressed the point about altcoins already a couple posts ago, since that is where I thought you were going with the scarcity argument when you first brought it up. These arguments have been debunked many times before.

Well we will have to wait and see. Right now people want them as a speculative vehicle. I get that.

The altcoin argument has been debunked in the sense that network effects and miners support bitcoin. However, dont underestimate migration to other coins that are more popular, with MINERS AND USERS.

My abundance comment refers to the fact, that if nobody wants them they arent scarce.

Again, we dont have to discuss the probability of this. I believe bitcoin wont be money and you believe it will. I have layed out why I dont believe it will already (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=361037.msg3926046#msg3926046). There is nothing more to discuss.

[porc]

China doesnt sound "supportive" of bitcoin, like anonymint wants you to believe.   To me it sounds like Method 1, I referenced earlier: prohibition.

http://forexmagnates.com/china-bans-payment-firms-from-working-with-bitcoin-exchanges/

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the Chinese central bank, has today banned payment companies from doing business with bitcoin exchanges.

The PBOC met with most of the top Chinese third party payment providers this morning and digital currency was an important part of the discussion. According to sources claiming to be close to the institution ,the PBOC in no uncertain terms, directed third-party payment firms to not do any business with bitcoin exchanges in China, so they were told by people who attended the meeting.

Upon encountering these rumors on Chinese internet forums the financial newspaper “National Business Daily” (link in Chinese) contacted the PBOC and the leading third party payment providers in China, Alipay and Tenpay and they all confirmed the reports.

The PBOC now explicitly requires that banks, and payment companies will not provide payment and settlement services to Bitcoin, Litecoin and other peer to peer currency trading sites. For payment companies that already made business with Bitcoin Exchanges , they should end their business cooperation; withdrawals of balances should be completed before the Chinese Spring Festival (January 2014), and new payment services are not allowed.

On December 5th the PBOC banned banks in the country from engaging in financial transactions in Bitcoin but left private clients to make their own decisions, leaving a space for supports of the digital currency to claim it can still operate in. Today’s action can almost completely stop Chinese demand for Bitcoin as individuals will not be able to purchase it using banks or third party payment providers.

[johnyj]

I'm seeing chinese people withdrawing money from banks to purchase bitcoin through OTC/localbitcoins.com, and create a bank run