Bitcoin Forum
December 05, 2016, 04:35:57 AM *
News: To be able to use the next phase of the beta forum software, please ensure that your email address is correct/functional.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 [12] 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events  (Read 57510 times)
coinjedi
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 184



View Profile WWW
July 05, 2012, 02:41:53 PM
 #221


Done.
For not making the thread cluttered you can shoot a quick email to us at [admin at betsofbitco.in] for your notifications.


Bets of Bitcoin
http://betsofbitco.in/
1480912557
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480912557

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480912557
Reply with quote  #2

1480912557
Report to moderator
1480912557
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480912557

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480912557
Reply with quote  #2

1480912557
Report to moderator
1480912557
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480912557

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480912557
Reply with quote  #2

1480912557
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1480912557
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480912557

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480912557
Reply with quote  #2

1480912557
Report to moderator
1480912557
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480912557

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480912557
Reply with quote  #2

1480912557
Report to moderator
coinjedi
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 184



View Profile WWW
July 05, 2012, 02:45:07 PM
 #222


Please add an "over" button to the bets so people stop spamming this thread with something that should be handled on the site. Seriously, you might want to have a consolidated view of all claims of a bet being over where people have to provide a link and a comment. Maybe you even want to give an incentive for the first to discover a bet being stale.

I've added this to our wish list. But in the mean time I'll ask people to email us directly instead of posting here.

Bets of Bitcoin
http://betsofbitco.in/
coinjedi
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 184



View Profile WWW
July 05, 2012, 02:46:33 PM
 #223

272 is proven true.

I've closed betting but waiting for the publication before making the payments. For such notifications please email us at [admin at betsofbitco.in].

Bets of Bitcoin
http://betsofbitco.in/
giszmo
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1568


¡ɥɔʇɐʍ ʇsnɾ &#7


View Profile WWW
July 05, 2012, 03:23:54 PM
 #224

Done.
For not making the thread cluttered you can shoot a quick email to us at [admin at betsofbitco.in] for your notifications.

Why not put a "it's over"-mail to link in the form until you have the real thing implemented? Should be much faster to implement than to educate all your users not to post in this thread Smiley

Stephen Gornick
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1988



View Profile
July 09, 2012, 06:54:10 AM
 #225

I've noticed that gmail is particularly insistent that all messages from bets@betsofbitco.in get placed in my spam folder.  I "train" the filter by marking them "not spam", but the .in force is too strong or something else is causing it to remain flagged as spam.

Setting up SPF on your DNS might help the spam algorithm to more correctly identify the legitimacy of the message.

JTurner
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 40


View Profile
July 09, 2012, 08:21:48 AM
 #226

I've noticed that gmail is particularly insistent that [...]
How about dropping Big Brother Google anyway?  Wink
rjk
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 420


1ngldh


View Profile
July 09, 2012, 01:09:29 PM
 #227

I've noticed that gmail is particularly insistent that all messages from bets@betsofbitco.in get placed in my spam folder.  I "train" the filter by marking them "not spam", but the .in force is too strong or something else is causing it to remain flagged as spam.

Setting up SPF on your DNS might help the spam algorithm to more correctly identify the legitimacy of the message.

That's weird, because all mine get through just fine on gmail. SPF is always a good idea, if it hasn't been done already.

Mining Rig Extraordinaire - the Trenton BPX6806 18-slot PCIe backplane [PICS] Dead project is dead, all hail the coming of the mighty ASIC!
Stephen Gornick
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1988



View Profile
July 09, 2012, 03:15:29 PM
 #228

I've noticed that gmail is particularly insistent that [...]
How about dropping Big Brother Google anyway?  Wink

With the SMTP protocol, e-mail is sent clear text.   Big Brother doesn't need Google's help to know which bet statements I've wagered on nor how much I suck at predicting future events. :-)

What I'ld like to see is Bitcoin merchants lead by offering an encrypted e-mail option.  I upload my GPG/PGP public key and the service uses that to encypt all messages sent to me.

OgNasty
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2016


Powered by NastyFans


View Profile WWW
July 09, 2012, 04:40:17 PM
 #229

I submitted what was the 2nd largest bet on the site and once it was over I got less than half a BTC in commission.  Sort of disappointing.  Perhaps I misunderstood the commission rates?

BITSLER                 ▄███
               ▄████▀
             ▄████▀
           ▄████▀  ▄██▄
         ▄████▀    ▀████▄
       ▄████▀        ▀████▄
     ▄████▀            ▀████▄
   ▄████▀                ▀████▄
 ▄████▀ ▄████▄      ▄████▄ ▀████▄
█████   ██████      ██████   █████
 ▀████▄ ▀████▀      ▀████▀ ▄████▀
   ▀████▄                ▄████▀
     ▀████▄            ▄████▀
       ▀████▄        ▄████▀
         ▀████▄    ▄████▀
           ▀████▄▄████▀
             ▀██████▀
               ▀▀▀▀
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄            
▄▄▄▄▀▀▀▀    ▄▄█▄▄ ▀▀▄         
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄      
█  ▀▄▄  ▀█▀▀ ▄      ▀████   ▀▀▄   
█ █▄  ▀▄   ▀████       ▀▀ ▄██▄ ▀▀▄
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
█  ▀▀       ▀▄▄ ▀████      ▄▄▄▀▀▀  █
█            ▄ ▀▄    ▄▄▄▀▀▀   ▄▄  █
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
█ ▄▄   ███   ▀██  █           ▀▀  █ 
█ ███  ▀██       █        ▄▄      █ 
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀  
▀▄            █        ▀▀      █  
▀▀▄   ███▄  █   ▄▄          █   
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀    
▀▀▄   █   ▀▀▄▄▄▀▀▀         
▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█▄▄▀▀▀▀              
              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄▄████████████████▄▄
        ▄██████▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██████▄
▄     ▄█████▀             ▀█████▄
██▄▄ █████▀                ▀█████
 ████████            ▄██      █████
  ████████▄         ███▀       ████▄
  █████████▀▀     ▄███▀        █████
   █▀▀▀          █████         █████
     ▄▄▄         ████          █████
   █████          ▀▀           ████▀
    █████                     █████
     █████▄                 ▄█████
      ▀█████▄             ▄█████▀
        ▀██████▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄██████▀
          ▀▀████████████████▀▀
              ▀▀▀██████▀▀▀
            ▄▄▄███████▄▄▄
         ▄█▀▀▀ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ▀▀▀█▄
       █▀▀ ▄█████████████▄ ▀▀█
     █▀▀ ███████████████████ ▀▀█
    █▀ ███████████████████████ ▀█
   █▀ ███████████████▀▀ ███████ ▀█
 ▄█▀ ██████████████▀      ▀█████ ▀█▄
███ ███████████▀▀            ▀▀██ ███
███ ███████▀▀                     ███
███ ▀▀▀▀                          ███
▀██▄                             ▄██▀
  ▀█▄                            ▀▀
    █▄       █▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█
     █▄      ▀█████████▀
      ▀█▄      ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
        ▀▀█▄▄  ▄▄▄
            ▀▀█████
[]
giszmo
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1568


¡ɥɔʇɐʍ ʇsnɾ &#7


View Profile WWW
July 09, 2012, 09:36:23 PM
 #230

Big Brother doesn't need Google's help to know which bet statements I've wagered on nor how much I suck at predicting future events. :-)

Hey, come on Smiley I would bet you do pretty fine on betsofbitcoin. Your posts often look like encyclopedia entries with 12 references for facts that I never heard of before.

Actually I would love to see an option to make my record public — with or without betting amounts. Wouldn't it be nice to brag about betting right 80% of the time? (Betting right = in this bet I made a profit)

coinjedi
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 184



View Profile WWW
July 10, 2012, 03:47:18 AM
 #231

I've noticed that gmail is particularly insistent that all messages from bets@betsofbitco.in get placed in my spam folder.  I "train" the filter by marking them "not spam", but the .in force is too strong or something else is causing it to remain flagged as spam.

Setting up SPF on your DNS might help the spam algorithm to more correctly identify the legitimacy of the message.


I'll look into SPF.

Bets of Bitcoin
http://betsofbitco.in/
coinjedi
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 184



View Profile WWW
July 10, 2012, 03:49:39 AM
 #232

I submitted what was the 2nd largest bet on the site and once it was over I got less than half a BTC in commission.  Sort of disappointing.  Perhaps I misunderstood the commission rates?

Submitter gets 5% of the lost bets, which what we get as well. You can PM me if you think that our calculation is wrong. I'll fix it asap.

Bets of Bitcoin
http://betsofbitco.in/
Sukrim
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1848


View Profile
July 10, 2012, 05:36:54 AM
 #233

I submitted what was the 2nd largest bet on the site and once it was over I got less than half a BTC in commission.  Sort of disappointing.  Perhaps I misunderstood the commission rates?
If there are 1 million BTC bet on "true" and 10 BTC on "wrong" and "true" turns out to be the winner, only 10 BTC would get divided between bettors on "true", the site owner and the submitter.

I even lost quite some moey just by opening a bet and betting 1 BTC on each side to make it more interesting to bet in the first place - if the end result is more skewed than you initially think due to some external factors along the way, even with the "early comer" bonus it doesn't really pay off. It might work out with a exponential instead of linear function, but even this could turn out to be too punishing for early bets.

I still plan to analyze closed bets and see if it would be worthwile to "snipe" bets (e.g. bet 10 BTC always on the high end right before the time runs out) but I fear the simpler bet "pirateat40 won't default before I made back my initial deposit" is more lucrative and less risky to my funds than that.

https://bitfinex.com <-- leveraged trading of BTCUSD, LTCUSD and LTCBTC (long and short) - 10% discount on fees for the first 30 days with this refcode: x5K9YtL3Zb
Mail me at Bitmessage: BM-BbiHiVv5qh858ULsyRDtpRrG9WjXN3xf
Stephen Gornick
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1988



View Profile
July 10, 2012, 08:09:26 PM
 #234

I submitted what was the 2nd largest bet on the site and once it was over I got less than half a BTC in commission.  Sort of disappointing.  Perhaps I misunderstood the commission rates?

Submitter gets 5% of the lost bets, which what we get as well. You can PM me if you think that our calculation is wrong. I'll fix it asap.

And this is why for most bet statements that I create I set the bet deadline as early as I can (i.e., a full 30-days before the event date).

For most events, when the event date approaches there is less and less risk to the better as the most-likely outcome becomes more and more certain.   So there are more bets occurring as the event date approaches but they do nothing for me, income-wise, as the creator of the statement as they are mostly likely to be on the winning side, which I get no commission for.  

OgNasty
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2016


Powered by NastyFans


View Profile WWW
July 10, 2012, 08:25:05 PM
 #235

I submitted what was the 2nd largest bet on the site and once it was over I got less than half a BTC in commission.  Sort of disappointing.  Perhaps I misunderstood the commission rates?

Submitter gets 5% of the lost bets, which what we get as well. You can PM me if you think that our calculation is wrong. I'll fix it asap.

Nothing is wrong.  Thanks for the explanation. 

BITSLER                 ▄███
               ▄████▀
             ▄████▀
           ▄████▀  ▄██▄
         ▄████▀    ▀████▄
       ▄████▀        ▀████▄
     ▄████▀            ▀████▄
   ▄████▀                ▀████▄
 ▄████▀ ▄████▄      ▄████▄ ▀████▄
█████   ██████      ██████   █████
 ▀████▄ ▀████▀      ▀████▀ ▄████▀
   ▀████▄                ▄████▀
     ▀████▄            ▄████▀
       ▀████▄        ▄████▀
         ▀████▄    ▄████▀
           ▀████▄▄████▀
             ▀██████▀
               ▀▀▀▀
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄            
▄▄▄▄▀▀▀▀    ▄▄█▄▄ ▀▀▄         
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄      
█  ▀▄▄  ▀█▀▀ ▄      ▀████   ▀▀▄   
█ █▄  ▀▄   ▀████       ▀▀ ▄██▄ ▀▀▄
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
█  ▀▀       ▀▄▄ ▀████      ▄▄▄▀▀▀  █
█            ▄ ▀▄    ▄▄▄▀▀▀   ▄▄  █
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
█ ▄▄   ███   ▀██  █           ▀▀  █ 
█ ███  ▀██       █        ▄▄      █ 
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀  
▀▄            █        ▀▀      █  
▀▀▄   ███▄  █   ▄▄          █   
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀    
▀▀▄   █   ▀▀▄▄▄▀▀▀         
▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█▄▄▀▀▀▀              
              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄▄████████████████▄▄
        ▄██████▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██████▄
▄     ▄█████▀             ▀█████▄
██▄▄ █████▀                ▀█████
 ████████            ▄██      █████
  ████████▄         ███▀       ████▄
  █████████▀▀     ▄███▀        █████
   █▀▀▀          █████         █████
     ▄▄▄         ████          █████
   █████          ▀▀           ████▀
    █████                     █████
     █████▄                 ▄█████
      ▀█████▄             ▄█████▀
        ▀██████▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄██████▀
          ▀▀████████████████▀▀
              ▀▀▀██████▀▀▀
            ▄▄▄███████▄▄▄
         ▄█▀▀▀ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ▀▀▀█▄
       █▀▀ ▄█████████████▄ ▀▀█
     █▀▀ ███████████████████ ▀▀█
    █▀ ███████████████████████ ▀█
   █▀ ███████████████▀▀ ███████ ▀█
 ▄█▀ ██████████████▀      ▀█████ ▀█▄
███ ███████████▀▀            ▀▀██ ███
███ ███████▀▀                     ███
███ ▀▀▀▀                          ███
▀██▄                             ▄██▀
  ▀█▄                            ▀▀
    █▄       █▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█
     █▄      ▀█████████▀
      ▀█▄      ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
        ▀▀█▄▄  ▄▄▄
            ▀▀█████
[]
Frankie
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 206



View Profile
July 25, 2012, 02:22:27 AM
 #236

This is a cool site. The bet system seems obnoxious at first, but it's really clever. The effective odds of a bet decay over time, so there are diminishing returns as you wait--as it should be. Much simpler than a prediction market, and almost as fair.

I notice that you have unwound "post hoc" bets. Does this mean that if Mitt Romney announced a running mate tomorrow all of the bets after the announcement would be cancelled--or all of the bets after the previous day?
Stephen Gornick
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1988



View Profile
August 04, 2012, 10:19:08 PM
 #237

I notice that you have unwound "post hoc" bets. Does this mean that if Mitt Romney announced a running mate tomorrow all of the bets after the announcement would be cancelled--or all of the bets after the previous day?

I believe any bets on the calendar day (a U.S. timezone) that the event occurred and any made after that day are all canceled.

Stephen Gornick
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1988



View Profile
August 04, 2012, 10:47:49 PM
 #238

I have about a dozen bet statements currently, and have another dozen from the past that have expired.

A few get a pretty decent amount of participation, but even more have been very sparse -- not earning enough commission to even cover the entry fee (0.1 BTC).

Since all commission earned comes from the losing bets, it would make sense that a bet statement that is profitable is one that is interesting enough to attract bettors but also bets that are uncertain enough that there will be bettors on the losing side.

The most profitable one that I had so far was the one about gas prices.  At the time I placed the bet, gas prices were zooming.  It got over 10 BTC in bets saying the price would hit $4.25, and before the prices started dropping it got about 10 BTC on the Agree side.  When the price started dropping, there was almost no more betting on that side.    In the end, I got 0.55 BTC commission (5% of the 11 BTC wagered) for a couple minutes of work, and my bets placed were all on the winning side so I did OK, on a percent return basis.

So the financial success of a bet statement entirely comes from the ability to attract bets that ultimately are on the losing side.

Whomever wrote that one about BS&T defaulting by the end of the year will make out nicely ... up to 15 BTC commission no matter which way it ends is a nice reward for a few minutes of effort.

There are some regular financial bet statements ... like "the price of bitcoin will be X on a certain date" and those work as a low cost "binary option" that speculators like.  But there aren't many other topics that get a fair amount of bets.  There are a categories that get a lot of bet statements (e.g., sports, olympic results, etc.) but there's not a whole lot of wagering occurring with them.

Does anyone have any suggestions of categories of bets they would like to see?

Ukigo
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 924


View Profile
August 05, 2012, 09:14:49 AM
 #239

Quote
Does anyone have any suggestions of categories of bets they would like to see?
In fact many bettors there are from USA.
So, the popular statement must be interesting for them.

Or, maybe just clone some popular statements from Intrade ?



"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
giszmo
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1568


¡ɥɔʇɐʍ ʇsnɾ &#7


View Profile WWW
August 06, 2012, 12:54:28 AM
 #240

Or, maybe just clone some popular statements from Intrade ?

… and do arbitrage between these platforms if people bet differently here than there. Save way to win Wink

Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 [12] 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!