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Author Topic: Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events  (Read 57595 times)
rlh
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October 24, 2012, 05:32:44 PM
 #301

RE: This thread-- TL;DR

Is there a post or another thread that mentions strategy?  Also, considering that early betters have an advantage, is it profitable to create a Statement and bet equal amounts for each side?

If enough people posted bets to your statement, couldn't you make a profit, regardless of the results?

A Personal Quote on BTT from 2011:
"I'd be willing to make a moderate "investment" if the value of the BTC went below $2.00.  Otherwise I'll just have to live with my 5 BTC and be happy. :/"  ...sigh.  If only I knew.
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coinjedi
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October 25, 2012, 01:58:23 AM
 #302

RE: This thread-- TL;DR

Is there a post or another thread that mentions strategy?  Also, considering that early betters have an advantage, is it profitable to create a Statement and bet equal amounts for each side?

If enough people posted bets to your statement, couldn't you make a profit, regardless of the results?

I am not aware of any strategy discussions. But obviously, what you suggested is possible. Also remember statement submitter's get 5% of the losing side. Submitting a popular statement is very profitable.

Bets of Bitcoin
http://betsofbitco.in/
giszmo
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November 06, 2012, 03:17:31 PM
 #303



… so I wanted to post about my bet on facebook and came across some issues:
  • Images grab attention! Allow the creator of a bet to provide an image as well. No only would that help to get your site look 1.000.000 times cooler but also would it help to get facebook posts get read. If nothing else, please at least put some image on every page so you get your logo posted.
  • The headline in my fb-post should grab attention. "Bets of Bitcoin" is boring. Make it the title of the bet.
  • Make it show the text of the bet
All this information is grabbed from the site without any fb-connect voodoo and should works fine for sites that follow best practice html rules.

(Also: All bets are done. Please tell me at least now how much I can win if I win. For you it is just a line of code as all the vote weights are in place. For your users it's looking up the formula and punching in the numbers for each bet. This sux! Yes, I said that before but it still sux sux sux!)

Daily Anarchist
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November 07, 2012, 06:09:27 AM
 #304

Concession speech has been made.

This one is settled.

http://www.betsofbitco.in/item?id=5

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theymos
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November 07, 2012, 07:41:25 PM
 #305

I would not have closed the presidential bets yet. The electoral college could theoretically choose someone other than Obama.

1NXYoJ5xU91Jp83XfVMHwwTUyZFK64BoAD
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November 07, 2012, 07:42:43 PM
 #306

I would not have closed the presidential bets yet. The electoral college could theoretically choose someone other than Obama.

Obama won't flood the FEMA camps until after he's sworn in again.

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Stephen Gornick
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November 15, 2012, 03:35:15 AM
 #307

I hate to be a wet blanket on some light-hearted bet statements, but i don't think this bet statement is suitable for BetsOfBitco.in
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=871

Technically, it should be disallowed because the outcome is easily manipulated.   

But even if it wasn't, the statement's scope is much too narrow in focus to be of interest to anyone except the two people in on the joke.




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November 15, 2012, 03:44:54 AM
 #308

I hate to be a wet blanket on some light-hearted bet statements, but i don't think this bet statement is suitable for BetsOfBitco.in
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=871

Technically, it should be disallowed because the outcome is easily manipulated.   

But even if it wasn't, the statement's scope is much too narrow in focus to be of interest to anyone except the two people in on the joke.


Well, I rejected it once but the submitter took effort to write it again and made it as precise as possible. Still not my favorite bet, but we try to accommodate everyone as long as it is precise enough. If you don't like it either, just ignore. The site is mostly for fun, don't over think.

Bets of Bitcoin
http://betsofbitco.in/
FreeMoney
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November 16, 2012, 01:03:56 AM
 #309

I hate to be a wet blanket on some light-hearted bet statements, but i don't think this bet statement is suitable for BetsOfBitco.in
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=871

Technically, it should be disallowed because the outcome is easily manipulated.   

But even if it wasn't, the statement's scope is much too narrow in focus to be of interest to anyone except the two people in on the joke.



I won't suggest what BoB should do, but in general I think manipulable statements can be great. This one essentially pays girls to come out to play. And, this or a similar statement could be used to indicate that it won't (or will) be a sausage fest.

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
BIGMERVE
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November 23, 2012, 04:25:02 PM
 #310

I found the result for this bet which is waiting decision: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=402

This article states that BLOPS2 beat MW3 sales record: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/9683341/Call-of-duty-Black-Ops-II-sales-hit-500-million-in-first-24-hours.html

Stephen Gornick
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November 27, 2012, 11:58:00 AM
 #311

With yesterday's lawsuit by the CFTC against Intrade, it is possible this site will receive communications from the CFTC, including possibly the demand that no U.S. subscribers be allowed to place wagers.  This may also involve the domain being taken over, as India ( .in TLD) would likely comply with a request (or initiate a takeover on their own once being notified.)

How will Bets Of Bitcoin respond should this happen?

Let's say the site were to resurface with a .bit (namecoin) domain, or as a Tor hidden service, or just some other domain  -- how could a player know to trust that it truly is coinjedi that is operating at the new domain?

One way of ensuring the authenticity of communications would be for coinjedi to provide here a public key so that at some later time if necessary, a signed message (GPG) on the site would then suffice as a method to verify that coinjedi is in control of the site at a new location.  But I've never seen a public key for coinjedi.

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November 27, 2012, 12:20:35 PM
 #312

With yesterday's lawsuit by the CFTC against Intrade, it is possible this site will receive communications from the CFTC, including possibly the demand that no U.S. subscribers be allowed to place wagers.  This may also involve the domain being taken over, as India ( .in TLD) would likely comply with a request (or initiate a takeover on their own once being notified.)

How will Bets Of Bitcoin respond should this happen.

Let's say the site were to resurface with a .bit (namecoin) domain, or as a Tor hidden service, or just some other domain  -- how could a player know to trust that it truly is coinjedi that is operating at the new domain?

One way of ensuring the authenticity of communications would be for coinjedi to provide here a public key so that at some later time if necessary, a signed message (GPG) on the site would then suffice as a method to verify that coinjedi is in control of the site at a new location.  But I've never seen a public key for coinjedi.

What are you talking about? A site like this is not going to go rogue on tor. Hardly any money in it at all right now. Why break the law?

Jedi will hopefully try to return all money to depositors and close up shop.

Alternatively, he will run off with the money (including my own). Those are the two plausible options.

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November 27, 2012, 03:12:41 PM
 #313

With yesterday's lawsuit by the CFTC against Intrade, it is possible this site will receive communications from the CFTC, including possibly the demand that no U.S. subscribers be allowed to place wagers.  This may also involve the domain being taken over, as India ( .in TLD) would likely comply with a request (or initiate a takeover on their own once being notified.)

How will Bets Of Bitcoin respond should this happen.

Let's say the site were to resurface with a .bit (namecoin) domain, or as a Tor hidden service, or just some other domain  -- how could a player know to trust that it truly is coinjedi that is operating at the new domain?

One way of ensuring the authenticity of communications would be for coinjedi to provide here a public key so that at some later time if necessary, a signed message (GPG) on the site would then suffice as a method to verify that coinjedi is in control of the site at a new location.  But I've never seen a public key for coinjedi.

What are you talking about? A site like this is not going to go rogue on tor. Hardly any money in it at all right now. Why break the law?

Jedi will hopefully try to return all money to depositors and close up shop.

Alternatively, he will run off with the money (including my own). Those are the two plausible options.

What are YOU talking about? betsofbitcoin is a great service and has to survive somehow. If it reappears somewhere suddenly asking you to provide all kind of identification I want to know who's in control. Also thousands of bitcoins is not much in terms of a company's holdings but in terms of dozens of customers it is a lot to each of these.
On the other hand I don't see how a signed message would help. Maybe he's forced to cooperate in whatever bullshit.
The Bitcoin ecosystem is like a served dinner with the kids still playing with their dollar bills. The betsofbitcoin-soup is getting cold. Mummy will heat it up but if the kids eat out tonight it's not worth the hassle.

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November 28, 2012, 07:51:07 AM
 #314

coinjedi, could you edit the title (not description) of a bet I submitted, in order to emphasize what the bet covers?

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665
"Butterfly Labs ASIC will achieve 350 Mhash/Joule" should be changed to "Butterfly Labs ASIC is real and will achieve 350+ Mhash/Joule"
Mr. Coinman
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November 28, 2012, 11:35:28 PM
 #315

Coinjedi, I emailed you a little while back requesting a change from my mistakenly written "August 1st" to "April 1st" in the description of my statement. You misinterpreted what I meant and edited the title from "April 1st" to "August 1st". As you can see, the event date is April 1st, 2013.

Can you please make the following changes to the statement?:

Title:

Quote
"The r/Bitcoin subreddit will have at least 15k subscribers by April 1st, 2013"

Description:

Quote
"This statement is true if the r/Bitcoin community on Reddit.com reaches 15,000 subscribers before April 1st, 2013"

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December 01, 2012, 02:20:46 PM
 #316


FACEBOOK will trade at < 25$/Share at the end of November 2012

Verdict: False! Settle the bet.  Grin

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December 03, 2012, 10:16:58 PM
 #317

I'm considering placing a large bet on an event that won't be settled for several years. My biggest concern is that the website will still be around in several years. Can you please address these two concerns?

#1 Do you plan on operating this site several years from now?

#2 What contingency plans do you have if the state comes down on you? I would feel more confident knowing there is a Tor site already up and verified by you as a backup just in case the clear net site gets closed down. Or, if not that, at least a signed signature so that if you later have to set up a Tor or i2p site that you can verify it is yours by your signed signature.

Once I feel confident that your site will still be up in several years I'll place my bet. Thanks!

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December 07, 2012, 05:54:26 AM
 #318

I'm considering placing a large bet on an event that won't be settled for several years. My biggest concern is that the website will still be around in several years. Can you please address these two concerns?

#1 Do you plan on operating this site several years from now?

#2 What contingency plans do you have if the state comes down on you? I would feel more confident knowing there is a Tor site already up and verified by you as a backup just in case the clear net site gets closed down. Or, if not that, at least a signed signature so that if you later have to set up a Tor or i2p site that you can verify it is yours by your signed signature.

Once I feel confident that your site will still be up in several years I'll place my bet. Thanks!

lol Smiley I was considering placing a bet on BoB being offline within a month. Actually your concerns are why I never bet on any event longer than 30 days away. I hope this will change though.

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December 12, 2012, 02:48:08 AM
 #319

I hadn't seen Jon Matonis' article from Forbes in this thread:

Prediction Market 'Bets Of Bitcoin' Available To U.S. Customers

Quote
Instead of seeking regulatory approval, Bets of Bitcoin focuses on financial privacy and anonymity so that it’s irrelevant where the customers are geographically located. Anyone can create a bet statement and new bets are vetted by moderators to eliminate unwanted bets or bets whose outcome can’t be easily determined or is easily manipulated.
- http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/12/06/prediction-market-bets-of-bitcoin-available-to-u-s-customers/

Also, Bets of Bitcoin was just references in an article by Verge's Adrianne Jeffreis on Intrade:

Intrade shutdown disrupts betting market on elections, air strikes, and celebrity arrests

Quote
Hardcore Intrade addicts can also turn to the tiny prediction market Bets of Bitcoin, where some believe converting your dollars to the internet currency Bitcoin circumvents laws around commodity options because the site isn't using a government-recognized currency.
- http://www.theverge.com/2012/12/11/3753082/intrade-shutdown-cftc-us-december-2012

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December 12, 2012, 02:51:45 AM
 #320

the show must go on. hope there is a plan B for when BoB has to pull the plug.

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