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Author Topic: Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events  (Read 57589 times)
Spaceman_Spiff
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December 24, 2012, 12:52:31 AM
 #321

Hi

Would it be a good idea to be able to post questions/remarks on specific statements?

For example I am looking at
" Existence of extraterrestrials to be officially confirmed by US government by the end of 2012", and I want to make sure we are talking about "Grey" alien-type stuff here, consciously visiting earth, not some sort of bacteria reaching earth from mars on an asteroid or whatever.  Seems like this is the intention, but I would not want to get screwed on technicalities.

Also, I am quite sure there is no way to lose money if your bet is correct, but a confirmation of this would ease my mind, I am not used to betting online Smiley.

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coinjedi
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December 24, 2012, 05:56:40 AM
 #322

Hi

Would it be a good idea to be able to post questions/remarks on specific statements?

For example I am looking at
" Existence of extraterrestrials to be officially confirmed by US government by the end of 2012", and I want to make sure we are talking about "Grey" alien-type stuff here, consciously visiting earth, not some sort of bacteria reaching earth from mars on an asteroid or whatever.  Seems like this is the intention, but I would not want to get screwed on technicalities.

Also, I am quite sure there is no way to lose money if your bet is correct, but a confirmation of this would ease my mind, I am not used to betting online Smiley.



You can always email or PM us if you need any clarification.

Description of the item says it requires ETs to "visit" Earth. Since "visiting" is a conscious act, such technicalities would not count.

Also there is no way to get less than what you put if you are on the right side. We only get a commission from the losing side, not the total bets.

Bets of Bitcoin
http://betsofbitco.in/
Spaceman_Spiff
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December 24, 2012, 05:57:42 AM
 #323

Hi

Would it be a good idea to be able to post questions/remarks on specific statements?

For example I am looking at
" Existence of extraterrestrials to be officially confirmed by US government by the end of 2012", and I want to make sure we are talking about "Grey" alien-type stuff here, consciously visiting earth, not some sort of bacteria reaching earth from mars on an asteroid or whatever.  Seems like this is the intention, but I would not want to get screwed on technicalities.

Also, I am quite sure there is no way to lose money if your bet is correct, but a confirmation of this would ease my mind, I am not used to betting online Smiley.



You can always email or PM us if you need any clarification.

Description of the item says it requires ETs to "visit" Earth. Since "visiting" is a conscious act, such technicalities would not count.

Also there is no way to get less than what you put if you are on the right side. We only get a commission from the losing side, not the total bets.

ok, thanks for the confirmation !
maqifrnswa
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December 30, 2012, 06:01:42 PM
 #324

I have an idea to possibly improve bets of bitcoin - it's not something that needs to change with the platform, just the way submitters control their own submissions.

Problem:
Some propositions end up with very small or zero bets on either side. For example, nearly every sports bet the is expiring in the next week have < 0.5 BTC (some have only 0.1 BTC total bet). That, effectively, kills any incentive for someone to place a bet in a contest that is expected to be close. It also kills the return for the submitter and the return for the website.

Solution:
The submitter should place funds on the proposition in proportion to what they think the odds are. Similar to what traditional sports books do, you are seeding the odds to encourage betting. No one will bet on a prop with < 0.1 BTC total, so the submitter will never win. But if the submitter put 5 BTC on each side (thinking that there is an even chance of an event occuring), then many others will feel fine placing 0.1 BTC bets at decent odds. The submitter accepts a bit more risk but allows the market to actually work.


How the platform can incorporate this:
Right now, you don't need to do anything to implement this: "smart" submitters will realize it is in their best interest to create a compelling proposition to earn themselves more BTC. However, the platform can do something like the following during submission:

Do you want to make the initial market to encourage others to bet?
yes/no

How much are you willing to seed the market with?
X BTC

What do you feel the odds of your proposition becoming "true" is?
Y percent

the system then places Y percent of X BTC on yes and the rest on no.

Perhaps this initial seed can be exempt of site fees as well.


This problem can also be fixed by allowing the issue of "floating" shares, but then you get into the whole problem of being registered as an exchange, etc.
chmod755
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December 31, 2012, 01:58:36 PM
 #325

Quote
One of your bets at Bets of Bitcoin has been canceled. We have determined that a major event related to the statement happened and this justified a change in deadline. Your bet has been placed after the updated deadline, therefore canceled and refunded. Details are below:

Statement: Gold will surpass $1800/oz at any point on or before December 31, 2012
Your side: Disagree
Your bet amount: **removed**
Reason: Reference market is closed on 28th of December.

Bets of Bitcoin
http://betsofbitco.in

Reference market was closed for a day and that's a reason to change the deadline?
Stephen Gornick
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December 31, 2012, 07:16:25 PM
 #326

Reference market was closed for a day and that's a reason to change the deadline?

It is not reasonable to expect that Bets of Bitcoin to be a domain expert regarding every detail of every bet statement submitted.

In this instance,the bet submitter didn't know to specify the proper bet deadline. [Edited] The deadline couldn't be December 31st, because that is the day the event occurs, and thus if it still were open the site would continue taking bets placed after the outcome was already known.   So the earliest deadline for this bet then became December 27th.  [Edit: Incorrect.  The reference market did trade on December 31st.]

This is no different from the message you'll see at a casino: "machine malfunction voids all payouts".

Your wager wasn't lost.  The bets made after the revised deadline were returned to bettors.

chmod755
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January 01, 2013, 09:27:43 AM
 #327

In this instance,the bet submitter didn't know to specify the proper bet deadline. The deadline couldn't be December 31st, because that is the day the event occurs, and thus if it still were open the site would continue taking bets placed after the outcome was already known.

I placed my bet on Dec 28.

It looks like the Reference market was active on Dec 31st (until 17:14) and the event date was Dec. 31, 2012 end of day Eastern Time. Was it known? Huh

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=503
Stephen Gornick
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January 01, 2013, 05:57:05 PM
 #328

It looks like the Reference market was active on Dec 31st (until 17:14) and the event date was Dec. 31, 2012 end of day Eastern Time. Was it known? Huh

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=503

I see.  Since the bet deadline is always at least one day prior to the event date, there was no reason to change it because the event date did not change -- the reference market was trading on December 31st.   So it doesn't seem justified for the deadline to have changed in this instance.

OpenYourEyes
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January 01, 2013, 11:18:02 PM
 #329

Damn. I've lost my login credentials for the site, I didn't sign up with any thing memorable as I was only testing the site out, but I ended up placing a bet.
Is there any way to recover them?
I placed a small 0.1BTC bet, I know it is only small, but that's pretty much all I own  Undecided

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Spaceman_Spiff
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January 17, 2013, 06:49:18 PM
 #330

I just wanted to report that somebody bet on  http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1052  after the event happened. (I wuz on time  Wink )
crazy573
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January 17, 2013, 08:11:00 PM
 #331

I just wanted to report that somebody bet on  http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1052  after the event happened. (I wuz on time  Wink )

You made your bet yesterday?
Spaceman_Spiff
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January 18, 2013, 12:15:10 AM
 #332

I just wanted to report that somebody bet on  http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1052  after the event happened. (I wuz on time  Wink )

You made your bet yesterday?

Oh, does it work with 1-day cut-offs?  I did not know that (if so, which geographical location is used to determine this?).  No, I bet today, but prior to the 15.38 being breached.
crazy573
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January 18, 2013, 08:05:30 AM
 #333

Oh, does it work with 1-day cut-offs?  I did not know that (if so, which geographical location is used to determine this?).  No, I bet today, but prior to the 15.38 being breached.

Here are some answers for you  Wink
Quote

If the statement turns out to be true or false before the deadline, bet deadline is changed to the end of previous day and bets are closed.
Quote

Eastern Time
Mr. Coinman
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January 18, 2013, 10:04:31 PM
 #334

Would it be possible to have an archive of closed bets on the site, for "historical" purposes? It might be interesting to look back at the bets of our past.

Stephen Gornick
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January 19, 2013, 02:13:10 AM
 #335

Would it be possible to have an archive of closed bets on the site, for "historical" purposes? It might be interesting to look back at the bets of our past.

These are available through the site's UI already:

All closed bets, sorted by bet totals:
 - http://betsofbitco.in/list?status=closed&category=All&sorting=-totalBets

Click on the other selections to change the sort method.



To see only your closed bets:
 - http://betsofbitco.in/profile

Then scroll down to
 Your Bets
then click on
 Your closed bets

Spaceman_Spiff
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January 22, 2013, 09:26:44 AM
 #336

Oh, does it work with 1-day cut-offs?  I did not know that (if so, which geographical location is used to determine this?).  No, I bet today, but prior to the 15.38 being breached.

Here are some answers for you  Wink
Quote

If the statement turns out to be true or false before the deadline, bet deadline is changed to the end of previous day and bets are closed.
Quote

Eastern Time

tx for the answers, I should read more attentively next time  Smiley
elux
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February 03, 2013, 04:48:48 PM
 #337

Quote

AAPL (Apple Inc) on NASDAQ will have a closing share price above $500.00 USD on 1 February 2013.

Opening date: Jan. 15, 2013
Bet deadline: Jan. 30, 2013 end of day Eastern Time
Event date: Feb. 1, 2013 end of day Eastern Time

Category: Economics
Total agree bets: 53.01
Total disagree bets: 346.43

Close and settle the bet, plz.
Spaceman_Spiff
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February 05, 2013, 04:07:48 AM
 #338

Could you close this one too?

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1048
dacoinminster
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February 18, 2013, 04:47:35 PM
 #339

I think this one should have been closed out several days ago:

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1171

"MTGOX BTC will touch $25.99 before $14.99"

Stephen Gornick
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February 24, 2013, 01:07:40 AM
 #340

I'm curious about this one.  It was a poorly written bet statement at best, or deceptively written to get people to bet on the losing side.

Fugitive Ex-LAPD Officer Chris Dorner Will Be Apprehended by Law Enforcement by end of day 2/28 EST
At-large fugitive Christopher Dorner will be apprehended by law enforcement by February 28, 11:59pm EST.
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1215

The timeline shows that he was cornered in the cabin that was set fire on Feb 12th.  His body was positively identified on Feb 14th.

He (living Chris Dorner) was never apprehended, so I think False would be the outcome, though I'm not entirely certain.  He died without being apprehended so I'm pretty sure True would be the wrong outcome.  Maybe a wash (and refund of all bets?) 

If it is decided as False, I wonder what date was the event date.   The 12th?  ... thus only bets made on Feb 11th (the date the bet statement was placed) are valid, with all others getting returned?

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