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Author Topic: Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events  (Read 57544 times)
Ukigo
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August 06, 2012, 05:07:24 AM
 #241

Cool idea ! Cool

"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
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Bananington
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Twinkle twinkle motherfucker, twinkle twinkle.


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August 07, 2012, 04:21:09 AM
 #242

I just won 4.42BTC in a bet I made months ago! Haha. Tongue
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August 12, 2012, 01:46:23 AM
 #243

I just won 4.42BTC in a bet I made months ago! Haha. Tongue

congratulations

Donations: 1JVhKjUKSjBd7fPXQJsBs5P3Yphk38AqPr - TIPS
the hacks, the hacks, secure your bits!
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August 12, 2012, 01:52:50 PM
 #244

These statements were proved false yesterday Aug 11th.  It is still open and I think people bet false on it yesterday after the VP announcement.  

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=264
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=291
Charlie Prime
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August 12, 2012, 06:04:48 PM
 #245

We already have moonco.in and their doing a very good job!

Or not.   Wink
Stephen Gornick
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August 12, 2012, 07:32:08 PM
 #246

These statements were proved false yesterday Aug 11th.

Incidentally, normally a bet will be reviewed at the event date.  When an event outcome occurs before the event date, notification can be sent via e-mail, as described here:

For not making the thread cluttered you can shoot a quick email to us at [admin at betsofbitco.in] for your notifications.


As far as bets made once the event outcome was known:

It is still open and I think people bet false on it yesterday after the VP announcement.

Any bets made on those after Aug 10th (last day before the event's outcome was determined) get canceled.  This is described in a previous post:

Post hoc bets are cancelled.

And it also referenced in the Help page:

"Q.) What happens after I bet?"
"A.) [...] If the statement turns out to be true or false before the deadline, bet deadline is changed to the end of previous day and bets are closed."

 - http://betsofbitco.in/help


Those two you linked to were:

Marco Rubio will be selected as Vice Presidential running mate for the GOP presidential nominee.
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=264  

Marco Rubio will be the GOP nominee for Vice President
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=291  

Here's a another open one:
GOP convention will select Ron Paul as vice presidential candidate
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=463


Here's one that is "waiting" (closed to new bets) and can be ended as well:
Mitt Romney Will Choose A Woman As His Running Mate
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=481

ShireSilver
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August 12, 2012, 07:55:19 PM
 #247

Those two you linked to were:

Marco Rubio will be selected as Vice Presidential running mate for the GOP presidential nominee.
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=264  

Marco Rubio will be the GOP nominee for Vice President
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=291  

Here's a another open one:
GOP convention will select Ron Paul as vice presidential candidate
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=463


Here's one that is "waiting" (closed to new bets) and can be ended as well:
Mitt Romney Will Choose A Woman As His Running Mate
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=481


IMHO, all these should probably be in the waiting state now, but none of them can actually be confirmed until the actual convention. What would happen if Paul Ryan were to get hit by a bus? Its not likely that the outcome will change, but it is still possible.

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August 12, 2012, 08:00:58 PM
 #248

A Higgs Boson particle will be observed before the end of 2012 should be decided.


Quote from: BBC
Now one Higgs-hunting team at the Large Hadron Collider report a "5.9 sigma" levels of certainty it exists.
That equates to a one-in-550 million chance if the Higgs did not exist, the team would see these same results.
The formal threshold for claiming the discovery of a particle is a 5-sigma level - equivalent to a one-in-3.5 million chance.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19076355
http://www.nature.com/nphys/journal/v8/n8/full/nphys2404.html
http://blogs.nature.com/news/2012/08/higgs-discovery-papers-unveiled.html

http://arxiv.org/abs/1207.7214
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August 12, 2012, 09:07:54 PM
 #249

These statements were proved false yesterday Aug 11th.

Incidentally, normally a bet will be reviewed at the event date.  When an event outcome occurs before the event date, notification can be sent via e-mail, as described here:

For not making the thread cluttered you can shoot a quick email to us at [admin at betsofbitco.in] for your notifications.

@Stephen Gornick: I did read the FAQ but thanks for the info.  I thought it was just easier to post here, but I sent them an e-mail as you suggested.  
Frankie
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August 12, 2012, 09:32:48 PM
 #250

IMHO, all these should probably be in the waiting state now, but none of them can actually be confirmed until the actual convention. What would happen if Paul Ryan were to get hit by a bus? Its not likely that the outcome will change, but it is still possible.

This is true; there's a difference between who Mitt Romney picks and who is actually nominated. Although it seems unlikely, Mitt Romney's choice may not be nominated.
SpontaneousDisorder
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August 17, 2012, 07:54:13 PM
 #251

Quote
This assertion is true if Bitcoin Savings and Trust is unwilling or unable to pay out requested deposits on or before December 31st, 2012 according to the opinion of Bitcointalk.org members on the Bitcoin Savings and Trust Forum Thread.

Since it seems he may be having difficulty repaying is it appropriate to keep the bet open still?

Relevant:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101339.0
Stephen Gornick
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August 17, 2012, 09:02:49 PM
 #252

Quote
This assertion is true if Bitcoin Savings and Trust is unwilling or unable to pay out requested deposits on or before December 31st, 2012 according to the opinion of Bitcointalk.org members on the Bitcoin Savings and Trust Forum Thread.

Since it seems he may be having difficulty repaying is it appropriate to keep the bet open still?

Relevant:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101339.0

The "opinion of the community" that I've seen elsewhere considers "default" event to mean that a certain period of time, perhaps two weeks, has passed from the time the withdrawals are requested.  If *all* payouts do actually occur on Monday or so, that probably wouldn't be considered a default for someone whose withdrawal requests from today are not honored.

elux
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August 19, 2012, 10:33:12 AM
 #253

MTGOX BTC will touch $19.99 before $9.99 should be closed.

Outcome: False.

Yuhfhrh
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August 27, 2012, 09:05:12 PM
 #254

Your site seems to be down, are you aware?

Edit: It's back up now. By the way http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=586 turned out to be true and I sent an email to the admin address earlier.
Jouke
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August 29, 2012, 08:17:33 AM
 #255

433 \o/

Koop en verkoop snel en veilig bitcoins via iDeal op Bitonic.nl
ShireSilver
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August 29, 2012, 02:53:16 PM
 #256

I guess I can wait until tomorrow for the payout on http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=240

Shire Silver, a better bullion that fits in your wallet. Get some, now accepting bitcoin!
jtimon
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September 04, 2012, 09:39:24 PM
 #257

Sorry for the spoiler, but this bet is done:

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=577

Wins nothing, but congratulations to the predictor.

2 different forms of free-money: Freicoin (free of basic interest because it's perishable), Mutual credit (no interest because it's abundant)
kiba
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September 05, 2012, 02:49:06 AM
 #258

Did the service get updated lately? It seems stagnant.

Vandroiy
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September 05, 2012, 08:28:57 PM
 #259

Thanks for the neat service.

As hinted in my earlier sig, I had placed bets on BS&T default. Got some nice customer service repeating the default definition, had a chat about betting in general, won a little over 2 weeks after payments stopped, and was able to withdraw right away. Some bets that came in late were reverted, which is the right thing to do, since there was additional information at the time.

Overall, the site made a good impression to me. I'll use it again as soon as there's something I want to bet about. Smiley
Stephen Gornick
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September 05, 2012, 10:16:31 PM
 #260

Overall, the site made a good impression to me. I'll use it again as soon as there's something I want to bet about. Smiley

There are some topics that I wouldn't normally follow but with a minimum bet of only 0.1 BTC (worth a little over $1) it is easy to put some money on it and then get the e-mail alert on the outcome when the bet ends.

For some bets the odds are just not worth it (e.g., the extra-terrestrials bet, you'll lose money no matter if your bet wins or loses with the current odds on it), [edit: I'm an idiot, winning bets always split 90% of the losing bets, no more no less.]. but others are set up to run right through to the event date, and thus it becomes almost a guaranteed win, just with a really low payout.

This whole predictions market captures my interest in a unique way!

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