CanaryInTheMine
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between a rock and a block!
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April 23, 2014, 09:18:30 PM |
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For all you AM fans, this might be slightly disturbing: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=387533.msg6358781#msg6358781Seems AM are going to build some 8 million chips by June. That's a lot of wafers, and a lot of capacity. It will take them a good few months to deploy it, but when they do it's going to drastically affect earnings, I'd estimate by September that the network rate will be 200PH. At that level, a TH of power might earn you $195 a month after you've paid for your power, and they'll want to add the same again, no doubt. I just don't understand your enthusiasm for your soon-to-be biggest competitor? (albeit indirectly) AM's goal is to reclaim the lead in chips and keep it. To avoid the centralization debate, the emphasis is on selling chips to anyone who wants to create their own miners. in the long run, we should see something like the Intel/AMD (maybe few others will join Bitcoin ASIC chip producers club) as they relate to PC/server manufacturing today. i.e. AM makes the chips, but other companies build miners to satisfy different market segments. also, very soon, there's no reason why Samsung TVs, DVD players etc... shouldn't have a swap-able card that runs Bitcoin mining chip/s. that device may be "free" to you if you provide electricity/internet and Samsung keeps mined btc? (substitute Samsung for any other maker of some appliance). it's possible that the entertainment industry can use Bitcoin to "solve" the piracy "issue" when they finally see the light and get some forward thinking, technology understanding board members at Hollywood & Co. and 3d printing can benefit by using Bitcoin to deliver one time use/print designs for an item you print at home or local Kinko's (former or new 3D-Kinkos). no need to go to store to buy a cup for ex. (also, no need for another country to manufacture it and ship it in a container overseas). Your payment for a printed item, can be made to multiple parties in the new supply chain: the designer of the item and the raw material manufacturer. the 3d printer could have a chip to help process printing requests and handle instant payments to all involved (no need to have NET 30 terms when I buy a cup, everyone gets paid instantly). this is a high level, simple example using a cup, let your imagination run wild. devices/systems that utilize Bitcoin (yes, upper B) network may need/want chips for uses besides just mining for bitcoins. AM is positioning to take the lead and keep it. This is an interesting concept, Canary. I can imagine this might spur a startup or two--is anyone talking about something like this I could read more about? not aware of specific startups but in today's world, when you get an idea, it's probably not unique anymore... wouldn't surprise me if these concepts are being worked on already. I mentioned one of the ideas a while back on Reddit, maybe someone picked up on it already.
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aerobatic
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April 23, 2014, 09:18:49 PM |
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For all you AM fans, this might be slightly disturbing: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=387533.msg6358781#msg6358781Seems AM are going to build some 8 million chips by June. That's a lot of wafers, and a lot of capacity. It will take them a good few months to deploy it, but when they do it's going to drastically affect earnings, I'd estimate by September that the network rate will be 200PH. At that level, a TH of power might earn you $195 a month after you've paid for your power, and they'll want to add the same again, no doubt. I just don't understand your enthusiasm for your soon-to-be biggest competitor? (albeit indirectly) AM's goal is to reclaim the lead in chips and keep it. To avoid the centralization debate, the emphasis is on selling chips to anyone who wants to create their own miners. in the long run, we should see something like the Intel/AMD (maybe few others will join Bitcoin ASIC chip producers club) as they relate to PC/server manufacturing today. i.e. AM makes the chips, but other companies build miners to satisfy different market segments. also, very soon, there's no reason why Samsung TVs, DVD players etc... shouldn't have a swap-able card that runs Bitcoin mining chip/s. that device may be "free" to you if you provide electricity/internet and Samsung keeps mined btc? (substitute Samsung for any other maker of some appliance). it's possible that the entertainment industry can use Bitcoin to "solve" the piracy "issue" when they finally see the light and get some forward thinking, technology understanding board members at Hollywood & Co. and 3d printing can benefit by using Bitcoin to deliver one time use/print designs for an item you print at home or local Kinko's (former or new 3D-Kinkos). no need to go to store to buy a cup for ex. (also, no need for another country to manufacture it and ship it in a container overseas). Your payment for a printed item, can be made to multiple parties in the new supply chain: the designer of the item and the raw material manufacturer. the 3d printer could have a chip to help process printing requests and handle instant payments to all involved (no need to have NET 30 terms when I buy a cup, everyone gets paid instantly). this is a high level, simple example using a cup, let your imagination run wild. devices/systems that utilize Bitcoin (yes, upper B) network may need/want chips for uses besides just mining for bitcoins. AM is positioning to take the lead and keep it. This is an interesting concept, Canary. I can imagine this might spur a startup or two--is anyone talking about something like this I could read more about? there are already systems under development (near release) from the 3d printing leaders to offer pay per use 3d printing. its also been proposed doing licensing for printing popular likenesses and characters etc, as well as in-store printing of your own figures etc. this is coming to the retail and home environment, regardless of bitcoin and isn't specifically a bitcoin related business. http://www.3dsystems.com/press-releases/staples-partners-3d-systems-launch-store-3d-printing-experience-new-york-and-losits not clear how bitcoin itself helps avoid piracy... although in general - business model-wise - if only the movie industry would offer its content in a form, and at a time when the customers wanted it (and pay for it) maybe there'd be a lot less piracy. these staggered windowed releases and staggered territory releases are whats hurting them.. yet again, bitcoin or not. How are you suggesting that AsicMiner's bitcoin mining chips can be useful outside of mining for bitcoins? you mean mining for some other SHA-256 coin?, or are you referring to non-mining uses (are there any?) In the medium to long term, why not put a few ASIC chips into a device that uses power to produce heat (electric hot water heater, oven, space heater) and earn some satoshi while running? You could recuperate some of the electricity cost that way. I'm actually designing a house right now and I'm very tempted to use bitcoin miners instead of boilers, to generate heat (heaters, hot water etc)... and sure, I'm paying for expensive electric heating, but they're earning coins at the same time, so it means free heating !
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Chris_Sabian
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April 23, 2014, 09:22:25 PM |
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I'm actually designing a house right now and I'm very tempted to use bitcoin miners instead of boilers, to generate heat (heaters, hot water etc)... and sure, I'm paying for expensive electric heating, but they're earning coins at the same time, so it means free heating !
Thats what I did to partially heat my house this winter. I bought some AM cubes in November, positive ROI, and kept the house warm while mining.
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CanaryInTheMine
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Activity: 2352
Merit: 1060
between a rock and a block!
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April 23, 2014, 09:23:20 PM |
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For all you AM fans, this might be slightly disturbing: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=387533.msg6358781#msg6358781Seems AM are going to build some 8 million chips by June. That's a lot of wafers, and a lot of capacity. It will take them a good few months to deploy it, but when they do it's going to drastically affect earnings, I'd estimate by September that the network rate will be 200PH. At that level, a TH of power might earn you $195 a month after you've paid for your power, and they'll want to add the same again, no doubt. I just don't understand your enthusiasm for your soon-to-be biggest competitor? (albeit indirectly) AM's goal is to reclaim the lead in chips and keep it. To avoid the centralization debate, the emphasis is on selling chips to anyone who wants to create their own miners. in the long run, we should see something like the Intel/AMD (maybe few others will join Bitcoin ASIC chip producers club) as they relate to PC/server manufacturing today. i.e. AM makes the chips, but other companies build miners to satisfy different market segments. also, very soon, there's no reason why Samsung TVs, DVD players etc... shouldn't have a swap-able card that runs Bitcoin mining chip/s. that device may be "free" to you if you provide electricity/internet and Samsung keeps mined btc? (substitute Samsung for any other maker of some appliance). it's possible that the entertainment industry can use Bitcoin to "solve" the piracy "issue" when they finally see the light and get some forward thinking, technology understanding board members at Hollywood & Co. and 3d printing can benefit by using Bitcoin to deliver one time use/print designs for an item you print at home or local Kinko's (former or new 3D-Kinkos). no need to go to store to buy a cup for ex. (also, no need for another country to manufacture it and ship it in a container overseas). Your payment for a printed item, can be made to multiple parties in the new supply chain: the designer of the item and the raw material manufacturer. the 3d printer could have a chip to help process printing requests and handle instant payments to all involved (no need to have NET 30 terms when I buy a cup, everyone gets paid instantly). this is a high level, simple example using a cup, let your imagination run wild. devices/systems that utilize Bitcoin (yes, upper B) network may need/want chips for uses besides just mining for bitcoins. AM is positioning to take the lead and keep it. This is an interesting concept, Canary. I can imagine this might spur a startup or two--is anyone talking about something like this I could read more about? there are already systems under development (near release) from the 3d printing leaders to offer pay per use 3d printing. its also been proposed doing licensing for printing popular likenesses and characters etc, as well as in-store printing of your own figures etc. this is coming to the retail and home environment, regardless of bitcoin and isn't specifically a bitcoin related business. http://www.3dsystems.com/press-releases/staples-partners-3d-systems-launch-store-3d-printing-experience-new-york-and-losits not clear how bitcoin itself helps avoid piracy... although in general - business model-wise - if only the movie industry would offer its content in a form, and at a time when the customers wanted it (and pay for it) maybe there'd be a lot less piracy. these staggered windowed releases and staggered territory releases are whats hurting them.. yet again, bitcoin or not. How are you suggesting that AsicMiner's bitcoin mining chips can be useful outside of mining for bitcoins? you mean mining for some other SHA-256 coin?, or are you referring to non-mining uses (are there any?) well, as with proof of work and elimination of double spending (Bitcoin), proof of consumption can be done so that you don't "get" a second copy for "free"? if you print that cup, it was actually printed beyond any doubt and when you watched that movie, you actually did. of course with proof of consumption ideas, the price per item should come down significantly, that cup may cost you pennies, so should the movie. you pay per "proved" use/consumption?
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aerobatic
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April 23, 2014, 09:25:42 PM |
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For all you AM fans, this might be slightly disturbing: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=387533.msg6358781#msg6358781Seems AM are going to build some 8 million chips by June. That's a lot of wafers, and a lot of capacity. It will take them a good few months to deploy it, but when they do it's going to drastically affect earnings, I'd estimate by September that the network rate will be 200PH. At that level, a TH of power might earn you $195 a month after you've paid for your power, and they'll want to add the same again, no doubt. I just don't understand your enthusiasm for your soon-to-be biggest competitor? (albeit indirectly) AM's goal is to reclaim the lead in chips and keep it. To avoid the centralization debate, the emphasis is on selling chips to anyone who wants to create their own miners. in the long run, we should see something like the Intel/AMD (maybe few others will join Bitcoin ASIC chip producers club) as they relate to PC/server manufacturing today. i.e. AM makes the chips, but other companies build miners to satisfy different market segments. also, very soon, there's no reason why Samsung TVs, DVD players etc... shouldn't have a swap-able card that runs Bitcoin mining chip/s. that device may be "free" to you if you provide electricity/internet and Samsung keeps mined btc? (substitute Samsung for any other maker of some appliance). it's possible that the entertainment industry can use Bitcoin to "solve" the piracy "issue" when they finally see the light and get some forward thinking, technology understanding board members at Hollywood & Co. and 3d printing can benefit by using Bitcoin to deliver one time use/print designs for an item you print at home or local Kinko's (former or new 3D-Kinkos). no need to go to store to buy a cup for ex. (also, no need for another country to manufacture it and ship it in a container overseas). Your payment for a printed item, can be made to multiple parties in the new supply chain: the designer of the item and the raw material manufacturer. the 3d printer could have a chip to help process printing requests and handle instant payments to all involved (no need to have NET 30 terms when I buy a cup, everyone gets paid instantly). this is a high level, simple example using a cup, let your imagination run wild. devices/systems that utilize Bitcoin (yes, upper B) network may need/want chips for uses besides just mining for bitcoins. AM is positioning to take the lead and keep it. This is an interesting concept, Canary. I can imagine this might spur a startup or two--is anyone talking about something like this I could read more about? there are already systems under development (near release) from the 3d printing leaders to offer pay per use 3d printing. its also been proposed doing licensing for printing popular likenesses and characters etc, as well as in-store printing of your own figures etc. this is coming to the retail and home environment, regardless of bitcoin and isn't specifically a bitcoin related business. http://www.3dsystems.com/press-releases/staples-partners-3d-systems-launch-store-3d-printing-experience-new-york-and-losits not clear how bitcoin itself helps avoid piracy... although in general - business model-wise - if only the movie industry would offer its content in a form, and at a time when the customers wanted it (and pay for it) maybe there'd be a lot less piracy. these staggered windowed releases and staggered territory releases are whats hurting them.. yet again, bitcoin or not. How are you suggesting that AsicMiner's bitcoin mining chips can be useful outside of mining for bitcoins? you mean mining for some other SHA-256 coin?, or are you referring to non-mining uses (are there any?) well, as with proof of work and elimination of double spending (Bitcoin), proof of consumption can be done so that you don't "get" a second copy for "free"? if you print that cup, it was actually printed beyond any doubt and when you watched that movie, you actually did. of course with proof of consumption ideas, the price per item should come down significantly, that cup may cost you pennies, so should the movie. you pay per "proved" use/consumption? what you've described isn't per se a use for AM's chip. you're describing a new coin entirely.. that is somehow related to the production and printing process... i.e., the 3d printing machine would have to be linked internally to the '3d printing coin'... so that they are inextricably linked...
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CanaryInTheMine
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Activity: 2352
Merit: 1060
between a rock and a block!
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April 23, 2014, 09:28:17 PM |
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<snip> what you've described isn't per se a use for AM's chip. you're describing a new coin entirely.. that is somehow related to the production and printing process... i.e., the 3d printing machine would have to be linked internally to the '3d printing coin'... so that they are inextricably linked...
We should be able to use Bitcoin (not btc) instead of re-inventing the wheel?
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xstr8guy
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April 23, 2014, 09:29:37 PM |
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I'm actually designing a house right now and I'm very tempted to use bitcoin miners instead of boilers, to generate heat (heaters, hot water etc)... and sure, I'm paying for expensive electric heating, but they're earning coins at the same time, so it means free heating !
Thats what I did to partially heat my house this winter. I bought some AM cubes in November, positive ROI, and kept the house warm while mining. Now if someone could just invent a BTC miner that pumped out cold air! My A/C is already running non-stop from all of the excess heat.
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Chris_Sabian
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Activity: 896
Merit: 1001
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April 23, 2014, 09:35:06 PM |
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Now if someone could just invent a BTC miner that pumped out cold air! My A/C is already running non-stop from all of the excess heat. That would be great but I think it would violate the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics
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novello
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April 23, 2014, 09:49:31 PM |
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For all you AM fans, this might be slightly disturbing: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=387533.msg6358781#msg6358781Seems AM are going to build some 8 million chips by June. That's a lot of wafers, and a lot of capacity. It will take them a good few months to deploy it, but when they do it's going to drastically affect earnings, I'd estimate by September that the network rate will be 200PH. At that level, a TH of power might earn you $195 a month after you've paid for your power, and they'll want to add the same again, no doubt. I just don't understand your enthusiasm for your soon-to-be biggest competitor? (albeit indirectly) AM's goal is to reclaim the lead in chips and keep it. To avoid the centralization debate, the emphasis is on selling chips to anyone who wants to create their own miners. in the long run, we should see something like the Intel/AMD (maybe few others will join Bitcoin ASIC chip producers club) as they relate to PC/server manufacturing today. AM's goal is to make a lot of money, and they seem to be determined to out produce everyone else, in the process they'll make mining completely uneconomical for everyone who doesn't have their economies of scale. Do you really think a DIY miner is going to be able to make their rigs at a cost that will allow them to compete? Even if third parties produce systems or subsystems you're not going to get hashing power at anywhere near the headline $0.5/GH in AM's initial release, it you think otherwise you're going to be disappointed. They are not your friends or saviours, they should be viewed as your mortal enemies, financially at any rate. As for Intel and AMD, financially to them Bitcoin is a minor sideshow. If Intel wanted to, it could make a chip that would make previous efforts look like amateur hour, and it could do so in less than a few months. But why bother when it can make huge margins off it's server cpus which are sole source?
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jimmothy
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April 23, 2014, 09:51:13 PM |
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I'm actually designing a house right now and I'm very tempted to use bitcoin miners instead of boilers, to generate heat (heaters, hot water etc)... and sure, I'm paying for expensive electric heating, but they're earning coins at the same time, so it means free heating !
Thats what I did to partially heat my house this winter. I bought some AM cubes in November, positive ROI, and kept the house warm while mining. Now if someone could just invent a BTC miner that pumped out cold air! My A/C is already running non-stop from all of the excess heat. 2 phase Immersion cooling might be the solution. No heat. No sound. Much less space required.
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xstr8guy
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April 23, 2014, 09:53:21 PM |
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Now if someone could just invent a BTC miner that pumped out cold air! My A/C is already running non-stop from all of the excess heat. That would be great but I think it would violate the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics Damn you Physics!
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ernie-
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April 24, 2014, 09:08:48 AM |
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I'm actually designing a house right now and I'm very tempted to use bitcoin miners instead of boilers, to generate heat (heaters, hot water etc)... and sure, I'm paying for expensive electric heating, but they're earning coins at the same time, so it means free heating !
Thats what I did to partially heat my house this winter. I bought some AM cubes in November, positive ROI, and kept the house warm while mining. Now if someone could just invent a BTC miner that pumped out cold air! My A/C is already running non-stop from all of the excess heat. It's called an absorption fridge. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Absorption_refrigerator
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reactor
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April 24, 2014, 12:12:40 PM |
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<snip> what you've described isn't per se a use for AM's chip. you're describing a new coin entirely.. that is somehow related to the production and printing process... i.e., the 3d printing machine would have to be linked internally to the '3d printing coin'... so that they are inextricably linked...
We should be able to use Bitcoin (not btc) instead of re-inventing the wheel? Yeah, but a lot of the concepts you laid out above are basically re-inventing the wheel, albeit lopping BTC on top for no good reason. The goal of most manufacturers is to produce things cheaper and better than anyone else while getting them out to the door sooner so they can charge a premium before the market catches up. Sound familiar? BTC is small fish compared to any other manu market in the world, so there is no reason for them to even care about a) sourcing chips, b) understanding the tech/sourcing techies, c) dealing with networking issues, d) dealing with already idiot consumers. Samsung doesn't want a tech it can't control, shit, it can't manage to keep its devices online when one data center has a fire, you think they're going to rely even 1% of their business on a hashing network? The problem with the BTC optimists is that they all remind of me of John Stewart in Half Baked. Saying "... but have you tried owning a toaster, THAT HASHES?!" isn't a compelling argument since that would mean I now need my toaster to be network-enabled (or open up my wireless to another device, f-that), it may require tech support, the BTC chip can fry and I have to send my toaster out for repairs. The bigger problem is that we don't need a coin for that tm. The mining market has effectively done itself in because of all the big players with $$$ in their eyes (note: not BTC in their eyes, BTC is just a vehicle to cash out with) are cannibalizing one another and the bit players in the community that started it all are now irrelevant. Now people are trying to find irrelevant uses for the technology. I remember reading an article about a year ago talking about all the possibilities for BTC since it would provide African farmers with a sustainable currency that avoids national conflicts and thinking "These people are fucking idiots. African farmers are more concerned with running water and basic medical care." Not trying to be offensive, but the mining market is insanely self-serving and relies on a wide net of scammers convincing other suckers to buy stuff that isn't worth buying. AM is late to the game, all they're going to do is flood a saturated market and make it more likely that other vendors will pull a KNC and self-mine rather than unload cheap tech to willing suckers. They can just unload cheap BTC to willing suckers instead and people will think they're getting a deal when BTC price is a-falling and nobody cares enough to buy it back up. There's a strong disconnect with reality in this community. Unless AM manages to produce (and produce for shareholders) borderline immediately their next line is likely going to be about as useful as the cubes. Unless you're the one selling hardware.
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brontosaurus
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April 24, 2014, 02:49:00 PM |
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Good grief, a man talking sense. What on earth are you doing on here?
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Franktank
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April 24, 2014, 03:44:42 PM |
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...Unless AM manages to produce (and produce for shareholders) borderline immediately their next line is likely going to be about as useful as the cubes.
This is to inform that friedcat met with the board today and provided some updates. Specific Updates ================
Submitted Questions: 1) What is the status, size, and expected delivery of the next batch of chips? What about the one after that? re 1) This month: 850k, next month: 3.35m (order size), June: 6.7m (order size), assuming each chip is 10G.
10.9 million chips @ ~10G = 109 PH/s by June's end. Note: Only ~3 PH/s is scheduled to be retained for self-mining, the rest is to be sold or franchised to interested parties.
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brontosaurus
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April 24, 2014, 03:57:52 PM |
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...Unless AM manages to produce (and produce for shareholders) borderline immediately their next line is likely going to be about as useful as the cubes.
This is to inform that friedcat met with the board today and provided some updates. Specific Updates ================
Submitted Questions: 1) What is the status, size, and expected delivery of the next batch of chips? What about the one after that? re 1) This month: 850k, next month: 3.35m (order size), June: 6.7m (order size), assuming each chip is 10G.
10.9 million chips @ ~10G = 109 PH/s by June's end. Note: Only ~3 PH/s is scheduled to be retained for self-mining, the rest is to be sold or franchised to interested parties. Get the lambs to pay for their own slaughter then? That's smart.
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RoadStress
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1007
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April 24, 2014, 06:11:06 PM |
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...Unless AM manages to produce (and produce for shareholders) borderline immediately their next line is likely going to be about as useful as the cubes.
This is to inform that friedcat met with the board today and provided some updates. Specific Updates ================
Submitted Questions: 1) What is the status, size, and expected delivery of the next batch of chips? What about the one after that? re 1) This month: 850k, next month: 3.35m (order size), June: 6.7m (order size), assuming each chip is 10G.
10.9 million chips @ ~10G = 109 PH/s by June's end. Note: Only ~3 PH/s is scheduled to be retained for self-mining, the rest is to be sold or franchised to interested parties. Still no answer to my reply: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg6334999#msg6334999 I don't understand how can you think that we will have 109PH deployed by AM by the end of June. Who will invest so much money?
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bitfair
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April 24, 2014, 06:24:04 PM |
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I don't understand how can you think that we will have 109PH deployed by AM by the end of June. Who will invest so much money?
I don't think the lack of interest in your group-buy accurately reflects the market conditions faced by AM. I assume the chips are already paid for by large AM customers because: (1) the delivery dates suggests that the chips are already ordered (2) fabs are not known for giving generous credit lines (3) I don't believe AM has ~$21.8 million in spare cash lying around (109PH@$0.20/GH wafer cost) to build stock. So to answer the question of "who", suffice to say there appear to be large buyers out there.
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brontosaurus
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April 24, 2014, 06:34:07 PM |
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I don't understand how can you think that we will have 109PH deployed by AM by the end of June. Who will invest so much money?
I don't think the lack of interest in your group-buy accurately reflects the market conditions faced by AM. I assume the chips are already paid for by large AM customers because: (1) the delivery dates suggests that the chips are already ordered (2) fabs are not known for giving generous credit lines (3) I don't believe AM has ~$21.8 million in spare cash lying around (109PH@$0.20/GH wafer cost) to build stock. So to answer the question of "who", suffice to say there appear to be large buyers out there. Bitfair is quite correct in his assessment, however it's extremely unlikely that anyone would be able to deploy such a large amount of equipment in such a short time let alone build it. If the chips (packaged) come out in June then it would likely take until end August at least to fully deploy them, even with tons of money behind you. My question would be: what size is the next order and when will it be delivered?
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RoadStress
Legendary
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Activity: 1904
Merit: 1007
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April 24, 2014, 06:40:45 PM |
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I don't understand how can you think that we will have 109PH deployed by AM by the end of June. Who will invest so much money?
I don't think the lack of interest in your group-buy accurately reflects the market conditions faced by AM. I assume the chips are already paid for by large AM customers because: (1) the delivery dates suggests that the chips are already ordered (2) fabs are not known for giving generous credit lines (3) I don't believe AM has ~$21.8 million in spare cash lying around (109PH@$0.20/GH wafer cost) to build stock. So to answer the question of "who", suffice to say there appear to be large buyers out there. My group buy has nothing to do with it. Since you haven't red the post that i pointed to i will ask here too. What's the expected $/GH for this numbers? Assuming 1$/GH at system level, that would mean that 50PH=50M$. With the current exchange rate and with the current market i simply don't think that will happen. A lot of people in the Hardware forum are screaming that mining isn't worth anymore, but yet you expect 109M$ pouring in a matter of 2 months. I don't see that happen.
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