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Author Topic: You want the bear market to stop? Here are some things you can do :)  (Read 774 times)
d5000
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August 16, 2018, 11:38:12 PM
 #41

IMO we can't compare the previous crash and its reasons to the current one because back then there were completely different things driving it.
-lower exchange liquidity, lower market cap, less countries involved, basically no laws and regulations, almost no real adoption
And at times like that we had china opening exchanges in 2013 that ended up faking volume and driving the price up hand in hand with bot willy. In 2014 it all went down to hell with the collapse of the biggest exchange and right when the bear market was starting to stabilize came chinese exchange bans that completely nullified the whole 2013 rally. All factors that drove the price down were lying dead in early 2015. Such a crash with the current state of affairs is hard to imagine.
You're partly right, in my opinion, and that's also the reason why I can imagine that there is a possibility we've already seen the low in the $6000 area which holds surprisingly strong.

But on the other hand, there are other factors that can lead to instability and volatility, and could drive us to another "capitulation crash" like in January 2015. The most important of these factors is the sheer number of totally worthless ICO projects and low-quality altcoins that have get far too much attention in 2017 and early 2018. Some users of these coins are still hodling even if they've lost 90% of their value, and even they will eventually capitulate totally. And Bitcoin can be driven down by this phenomenon - take into account that the "dominance" value currently sits only at 50%, and in 2013/14 it was at 80-90%. So the Bitcoin problems in 2013/14 were largely "homemade" (Mt. Gox etc.) while now the "crypto market" as a whole could drive Bitcoin a bit further down.

However, that's far from sure, and so there is some room for optimism. Above all if many people follow the advices I gave in the OP Wink I currently think there is a 30-40% probability we've already seen the low of this cycle, while there is a 60-70% likelihood that we see lower lows. Maybe not 3000, but 4500-5000 is very realistic if there are no positive news nor a boost in adoption.

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August 16, 2018, 11:43:43 PM
 #42

If there are only a couple of dudes following these advices, then you're totally right. But the goal is - like you said - to increase usage as a currency. This gives Bitcoin more stability and viability.

Without currency usage, Bitcoin is only an asset which fluctuates purely driven by speculation. There is no scarcity because there are thousands of other coins that could be a "digital gold", too. Currency usage, as I explained in my last post, leads to a more stable market due to more buy and sell orders. You can see it that way: Every good or service offered for Bitcoin is actually a buy order. The more buy orders, the less likely is a crash.
Bitcoin has become an asset purely driven by speculation. I can say that at least 90% of bitcoin users think of bitcoin as an asset(investment) than thinking of it as a currency. There are actual influencers in the crypto market. And more buy orders doesn't mean people are buying more. It can simply mean that one person is placing multiple buy orders and selling them immediately, or in a short while. The same can happen for sell orders.

Here you are totally right. While the ETF is a sign for adoption as a financial instrument (which is also a legit use case) the hype surrounding it is not really justified.
ETF ruins bitcoin's purpose. It makes people think bitcoin is an actual asset(it qualifies as an asset, since currencies are also taken as assets in accounting terms but in economical terms it isn't).  You're using a centralized third party to get sheet of paper that says you own this much bitcoin. Do you see the amount of irony?

"News driven speculation" isn't something that gives Bitcoin stability. It's more the other way around. If we only buy when there are "good news", then we're treating Bitcoin like a stock, and not like a currency. And stocks are often very volatile, so this usage leads to deeper crashes.
People are treating bitcoin as a stock, and not as a currency,like I said. And if you still don't realize that bitcoin is only driven by news(along with demand and supply) nowadays, you need to start catching up. Last year's bitcoin gold forks drove people to insane amounts to buy bitcoin and Jamie Dimon's criticism drove people to crash bitcoin, if that isn't news driven speculation, then I don't know what is.


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d5000
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August 17, 2018, 03:13:07 AM
 #43

Bitcoin has become an asset purely driven by speculation.
True. I would even say it hasn't "become" that, but it has been so since at least 2013. But is this really good for Bitcoin ? My intention is to (help to) change that.
Quote
And more buy orders doesn't mean people are buying more. It can simply mean that one person is placing multiple buy orders and selling them immediately, or in a short while.
You misunderstood me. What you say is pretty obvious. I was mentioning merchants offering goods and services because they can be thought of like buy orders. The more merchants accepting BTC, the more demand for BTC. Even if they're using BitPay or a similar payment processor (and so they aren't "backing" Bitcoin themselves), BitPay's demand for Bitcoin increases in this case.

ETF ruins bitcoin's purpose. It makes people think bitcoin is an actual asset(it qualifies as an asset, since currencies are also taken as assets in accounting terms but in economical terms it isn't).  You're using a centralized third party to get sheet of paper that says you own this much bitcoin. Do you see the amount of irony?
I mostly agree, but I wouldn't say that ETFs "ruin" Bitcoin's purpose. In reality, an ETF has nothing to do with Bitcoin's "value proposal". But an ETF can also not be prevented. If Wall Street wants to gamble with BTC, there's nothing we can do. However, I would not overestimate the influence an ETF can have. It could increase volatility temporally, but it could also be the other way around.

People are treating bitcoin as a stock, and not as a currency,like I said.
And that's not good, like I said Grin

And if you still don't realize that bitcoin is only driven by news(along with demand and supply) nowadays, you need to start catching up. Last year's bitcoin gold forks drove people to insane amounts to buy bitcoin and Jamie Dimon's criticism drove people to crash bitcoin, if that isn't news driven speculation, then I don't know what is.
Again. There is a lot of news driven speculation, yes. The purpose of this thread is to change something. If you want to continue with the news-driven, stock-like boom-bust cycles it's up to you but then BTC will bubble and crash again and again. The community should, imo, change its mentality a bit. Less get-rich-quick scheme, more currency usage. Then Bitcoin will eventually grow organically. It's true, we need some technical solutions to achieve mass adoption, but LN is slowly maturing and in 1-2 years it can be stable enough for everyday usage.

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August 17, 2018, 03:16:25 AM
 #44

What's important is that Bitcoin must become stronger as an ecosystem. You're fearing speculation and manipulation? The more Bitcoin gets used, the less influence they'll have. And you, the Bitcoin user - beginner, average Joe or advanced crypto geek - can do a lot for that. 


I think, also, that the more people want to use it (to extract value from its BTC into fiat) the more likely the market its going to react. Markets have their cycle and if the overall trend is selling, because more people sell then rather buy, the voila... nothing to do but stay and play the waiting game, sometimes you have a good year, sometimes you gotta be prepared.
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August 17, 2018, 03:23:18 AM
 #45

I totally agree with this thought. The only thing that will make the prices going up again is trying to make bitcoin usable again. We should spread the words around the world that how easier using bitcoin as a payment. We could make it by accepted bitcoin to pay our work or to pay our thing that we sell. Togather we can!!
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August 17, 2018, 03:29:08 AM
 #46

If you have a product or service based online business ,accept fixed bitcoin prices with a refund.
For example,a customer buys your service or product for 50 USD worth of btc.The bitcoin price doubles after one week and he actually paid you $100.This would be really frustrating to him so you offer him to refund 50 USD.You kinda lose money,but you get a loyal customer,who is paying with btc. 
Anyway,the bear market won't stop just because a bunch of people started accepting bitcoin payments.

we don't live in a perfect world which means this is not possible because it will simply be abused. this can actually become a way of earning money for some people if they wished. for instance looking at last year (2017) you can see bitcoin has been on the rise for at least 70% of the year. one way of speculating could have been speculating the rise then going to this particular shop and buying stuff. then when the price goes up you ask for refund. the result would be a lot of free items in your possession while you keep getting your money back.

usually the merchants who start accepting bitcoin payments increase their revenue automatically, they don't need additional incentive to bring in bitcoin paying customers. if anything a simple discount (which can be the extra fee that credit  card companies charge the merchant when using them) can be used.

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August 17, 2018, 09:36:31 AM
 #47

Yes i understand what you mean. If you want the market bull run, lets use bitcoin more. If many peoples using bitcoin, then the demands of bitcoin will be increase. When the demands increase, the price will increase as well. The cryptocurrency market need more real users in their daily.

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August 17, 2018, 09:48:59 AM
 #48

Excellent suggestions. I am always happy to take bitcoin for work or trade. In reality  bitcoin is just a method of bartering-for example: i you want to buy a consignment of fruit, I want to buy but i don't have cash but i am a printer and can exchange that but you don't need print but need fertiliser, the fertiliser guy needs printing; so you give me fruit i give fertiliser guy printing and he gives you fertiliser, everyone is happy. Bitcoin is in effect a token that allows you to trade with each other without cash and where there is a value difference. 

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August 17, 2018, 09:52:02 AM
 #49

Current market condition and situation is very bad for crypto world because more regulations and banning from all over the world, I think this situation will change soon, if you look at big companies all involved in ICO and crypto business, if more people knows about crypto and block chain tehcnology then it will be more advantage, Crypto should change in the world economy, who knows what will happen after 5 years in crypto currency?Its very disappointing to see how much it had drop even when we see it already tested the support level a lot of times but now it seem to test again the patience of the holders. I'm beginning to think the tokens are not worth holding but to be dumped right when it bubbles, dumping seem to be the real way to make money and last in crypto business.
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August 17, 2018, 12:41:31 PM
Last edit: August 17, 2018, 02:26:41 PM by d5000
 #50

If you have a product or service based online business ,accept fixed bitcoin prices with a refund.
For example,a customer buys your service or product for 50 USD worth of btc.The bitcoin price doubles after one week and he actually paid you $100.This would be really frustrating to him so you offer him to refund 50 USD.

we don't live in a perfect world which means this is not possible because it will simply be abused. this can actually become a way of earning money for some people if they wished. for instance looking at last year (2017) you can see bitcoin has been on the rise for at least 70% of the year. one way of speculating could have been speculating the rise then going to this particular shop and buying stuff. then when the price goes up you ask for refund. the result would be a lot of free items in your possession while you keep getting your money back.

I believe davis196's proposal to be worth considered to be added as an option by payment processors or by e-commerce plugins.

Obviously, it would be only something like a "promotional offer" and not the standard option in e-commerce. In the world of "physical goods", otherwise the risk for the merchant is too high.

But in the world of self-published digital goods, I can imagine it to work fine. Imagine you're selling an ebook for 0.001 BTC, with Bitcoin at $6000 ($6). You give your clients the option to pay back the difference if Bitcoin goes up in the next month (there must be a clear deadline). Now Bitcoin goes up to $8000. The merchant would now refund 2$ to the buyer. If he held the BTC, then he still made $6 profit. But even if he feared a crash and sold the 0.001 to get 6 USD, then he still has $4 per book (as the digital e-book copy doesn't cost anything).

The merchant could obviously set a limit in his terms & conditions, like "up to 50% of the item's value".

I think this is a cool idea, and would like to see an implementation.

Quote
usually the merchants who start accepting bitcoin payments increase their revenue automatically, they don't need additional incentive to bring in bitcoin paying customers.
Unfortunately, I heard lots of complaints from BTC-accepting businesses that in bull markets people are very hesitant to spend their BTC and that their revenue decreases in these periods. In 2017, the rising transaction fees were another factor, but in this case we have to hope for Lightning and sidechains.

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August 17, 2018, 12:56:56 PM
 #51

Spending Bitcoin is in my opinion the best way to help this ecosystem. Bitcoin is money and for that reason needs to circulate as money.

People quite often refrain from spending their coins because of the fear of losing out when the price starts increasing again. This can be easily avoided by buying back every single satoshi that you spent, and the best thing is that you can do this at any price (high or low). The more we spend our coins, the more merchants are willing to accept it, and for that reason the more utility value Bitcoin obtains. We are here together and should work together to make it a success.

I use my local fastfood delivery service that I pay for in Bitcoin. It is that fastfood isn't healthy to eat every day, otherwise just for the sake of using Bitcoin I would order every day.  Cheesy


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August 17, 2018, 01:12:13 PM
 #52

Bear markets can take a big bite out of long-term stockholders' returns. Witnessing a bear market for stocks doesn't have to be about suffering and loss, even though some cash losses may be unavoidable. Instead, investors should always try to see what is presented to them as an opportunity - a chance to learn about how markets respond to the events surrounding a bear market or any other extended period of dull returns. Read on to learn about how to weather a downturn.
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August 17, 2018, 01:21:04 PM
 #53

Thank you for the advice, because to be honest with the current situation of confusion and panic, a very drastic decline in market prices that have not found a deadlock makes me confused about what needs to be done, if it just stays and waits when the price rises maybe it is wrong and even makes panic.
I will try several ways that you suggest, hopefully getting a solution.
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August 17, 2018, 06:49:17 PM
 #54

I don't think you can stop a bear market like you also can't stop a parabolic rise in prices in a bull market. The market is people buying and selling with their emotions.

People like to buy rising prices for profit taking at a higher price and they also like to sell declining prices to cut profit losses. Markets snowball in both directions. Only when the last to sell is out does the trend reverses.


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erickkyut
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August 17, 2018, 06:54:12 PM
 #55

I don't think you can stop a bear market like you also can't stop a parabolic rise in prices in a bull market. The market is people buying and selling with their emotions.

People like to buy rising prices for profit taking at a higher price and they also like to sell declining prices to cut profit losses. Markets snowball in both directions. Only when the last to sell is out does the trend reverses.

We almost have the same opinion. I don't think that we can stop the bear market if we will follow his advise. Is he a former networker? It seems that his advice were from a power upline of a networking company or multi level marketing to be specific. For now, the only things we can do to help the market is promote Bitcoin and keep on spreading legitimate good news.
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August 17, 2018, 06:56:07 PM
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Many people are speculating if we're already reached the bottom of the bear market.

The truth is - that's not important. If we go up now from a strong $6000 base, or if we fall down to $3000 or even lower - that's peanuts. For sustainable growth, it doesn't matter.

What's important is that Bitcoin must become stronger as an ecosystem. You're fearing speculation and manipulation? The more Bitcoin gets used, the less influence they'll have. And you, the Bitcoin user - beginner, average Joe or advanced crypto geek - can do a lot for that.  Wink

Here are some examples:

  • The most important of all: USE Bitcoin. If there are services you regularly use and there is a business offering it for Bitcoin for a reasonable price: Give it a chance!
  • Are you a freelancer? Accept Bitcoin for at least some of your work. Each good or service offered for Bitcoin can be seen as a buy order. So you're adding demand for Bitcoin without having to risk money (only perhaps some work, if you're really unlucky).
  • Even better: Try to offer a stable, guaranteed Bitcoin price for at least a day. That can bring even more stability into the market.
  • Or accept Lightning for micropayments, at least for a limited volume per day.
  • Are you employed, but your boss is open-minded and a geek? Offer him to pay a part of your salary in Bitcoin. (I would not take my whole salary, it's still too unstable, above all if you have a family.)
  • Do remittances directly with Bitcoin ore with Bitcoin-accepting services.
  • Lightning: Help with beta-testing! Lightning is one of the most interesting technologies if we want to see mass adoption. The more users testing and finally using it, the better!
  • Test and discuss alternative scaling solutions, like sidechains or similar concepts.
  • Become a Bitcoin/blockchain developer. The Core client may be a bit difficult to start with, but there are a lot of services that already are waiting for someone to write and/or improve it. The more devs, the better.
  • If you have an idea how to improve usability, then propose and discuss it! If you're a developer, try at least a proof of concept. Or simply implement it Wink. Bitcoin is an open source project, so you can do literally what you want with the protocol! (Added 8-16)

That's only a small list of some examples. Please add more in the discussion!

The more people realize that Bitcoin doesn't "grow" by magic, but by human contributions, the more stability and sustainability we'll achieve. And you don't have to be the new Satoshi to help. Just pay your pizza with BTC, for example. Wink

Do you have a recommendation what a mom who is on long time vacation cause of newborn baby can do with her investments in bitcoin to help the price for the coin to go upper? That's my current situation and for now I'm patiently waiting for bitcoin raise back to 20000 $ to cash out my savings.
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August 17, 2018, 08:22:16 PM
 #57

I don't think you can stop a bear market like you also can't stop a parabolic rise in prices in a bull market. The market is people buying and selling with their emotions.

People like to buy rising prices for profit taking at a higher price and they also like to sell declining prices to cut profit losses. Markets snowball in both directions. Only when the last to sell is out does the trend reverses.
You are describing the problem well: Speculation is still the main use case for Bitcoin.

The actions I'm describing is an intent to draft a solution for that, and these actions are important if the community wants to change the medium to long-term price evolution. By using Bitcoin as a currency, it would bring more stability to the markets, above all to the downside (decreasing probability for sharp crashes). Apart from that, rising adoption as a currency/payment system is also a source for good news, which could drive the price up, which is even good for speculators. Wink

For example, imagine a situation where more and more bigger companies issue statements that they re-introduced Bitcoin as a payment option and regret the decision to have dropped it. That would be regarded as "good news", right?

I don't think that we can stop the bear market if we will follow his advise. Is he a former networker? It seems that his advice were from a power upline of a networking company or multi level marketing to be specific.
Me? Nope. I never worked in that field.

Quote
For now, the only things we can do to help the market is promote Bitcoin and keep on spreading legitimate good news.
I don't agree, but I guess you'll know that Wink As I wrote to @bustedsynx, increased adoption is the best source for "good news".

Do you have a recommendation what a mom who is on long time vacation cause of newborn baby can do with her investments in bitcoin to help the price for the coin to go upper? That's my current situation and for now I'm patiently waiting for bitcoin raise back to 20000 $ to cash out my savings.
I'm sorry, I can't. If your intention is simply to hodl and then cash out, then all you could do perhaps is to support marketing activities (spread the word about Bitcoin etc.). I hope you didn't buy at $20K ...

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August 17, 2018, 09:31:20 PM
 #58

We should calm down and stop asking people to do this or that. If market movers want to contribute towards a long lasting bear market, which seems to be the case, nothing of what you mentioned will help in any way.

We have to remain realistic. People don't care about anything aside from seeing the price moon swing and that's really it. They don't care about using it as payment because there are more convenient fiat options they use.

People here are lazy and don't want to do anything other than looking at the price in the hope it's higher than the last time they looked it up. Just let the market do whatever it wants to do. It's all part of the game we're playing.
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August 18, 2018, 03:12:11 AM
 #59

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usually the merchants who start accepting bitcoin payments increase their revenue automatically, they don't need additional incentive to bring in bitcoin paying customers.
Unfortunately, I heard lots of complaints from BTC-accepting businesses that in bull markets people are very hesitant to spend their BTC and that their revenue decreases in these periods. In 2017, the rising transaction fees were another factor, but in this case we have to hope for Lightning and sidechains.

please note that i was talking about regular businesses that accept bitcoin additionally not a business that only accepts bitcoin payment. for example a restaurant that was accepting fiat so far starts accepting bitcoin, they have increased their revenue.

as for bull market, i was actually discussing this a while ago here. those stats suggest that people were actually using bitcoin MORE during the bull market as price goes up.
and yeah higher fees were a bad thing last year but that is an exception case which hopefully won't happen again. but there is always a risk for it since bitcoin is susceptible to spam attacks no matter what you do.

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August 18, 2018, 03:26:15 AM
 #60

Ive never realize really that we can be part of making bitcoin sustainable buy using it whenever we can. I have been doing freelancing in designs and I just realized I could ask payment in bitcoin and if they do that, there will be discount. Thanks a lot for the idea.

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