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Author Topic: Is the price slowly climbing?  (Read 22092 times)
tvbcof
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November 28, 2011, 04:17:46 AM
 #141

Ho-Lee-Shit!  Look at the 20,000 ask wall at 3.20 on bitcoinity.org!
Retract.  I think it is just a mess-up in Tradehill's feed or Bitcoinity's charts or something.  Back to business as normal.  That is to say, boring these last few days.
Semi-unretract.  Looks like the amazing ask-wall on Tradehill may actually be for real, although I cannot see signs of it on the UI.  I think it may be for real, and currently set at $3.18 since there have been some fairly monster (for Tradehill) buys smacking into it and dying there.
...
Observe in light of recent disruptions: ...
Final note since the last remnants of this act are evaporating before my eyes.

There was one interesting observation in that the entire wall (the remaining 6k or so of it anyway) moved to market and was purchased in one gulp.  Then it seemed to be distributed linearly across the a 50cent current ask-wall range.

In the last week, it seemed that something (possibly some of these funds) would sneak out of the trading range and catch whatever had accumulated in a broad trough between buying and asking.  This created price 'drop outs' which were ridiculously easy to capitalize on, and the breadth of the trough made it worthwhile to do so.

Just now, it seems like the last of this steep ask-wall is going really really fast.  Possibly the Euro conference, Keiser, and Fox News stuff is creating incentive for people with money at Tradehill to buy in.  I would expect Tradehill prices will rebound to Mt. Gox levels and possibly overshoot and be generally much more flexible for a while.


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Nagle
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November 28, 2011, 06:29:01 PM
 #142

How do you guys not see the history and the cycle? It happens every single effing month. The price crashes by ~20 to 50%, people panic and say Btcoin is dead, It stays down for about a week then the price rises, and people all say that this is the turning point. Eventually the price falls in line with the same straight (log) line of slow decline that it has been on since the middle of the summer and everyone declares that Bitcoin has stabilized. Then it happens again. It happened first in June, it happened in July, it happened in August, it happened in September, it happened in October, and now it's happening in November yet everyone is surprised every month.
Right.

BTC/USD, last 5 months, with 30 day trailing moving average.

I've been saying "long, slow slide" for months.

It's still not clear what the endgame is. It hardly matters at this point, though. As I point out occasionally, if one business the size of a typical single supermarket used Bitcoins, liquidating their daily receipts would crash the market.  Bitcoin is now too dinky to be used as a currency.
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November 28, 2011, 06:40:59 PM
 #143

How do you guys not see the history and the cycle? It happens every single effing month. The price crashes by ~20 to 50%, people panic and say Btcoin is dead, It stays down for about a week then the price rises, and people all say that this is the turning point. Eventually the price falls in line with the same straight (log) line of slow decline that it has been on since the middle of the summer and everyone declares that Bitcoin has stabilized. Then it happens again. It happened first in June, it happened in July, it happened in August, it happened in September, it happened in October, and now it's happening in November yet everyone is surprised every month.
Right.
 - image -
I've been saying "long, slow slide" for months.

It's still not clear what the endgame is. It hardly matters at this point, though. As I point out occasionally, if one business the size of a typical single supermarket used Bitcoins, liquidating their daily receipts would crash the market.  Bitcoin is now too dinky to be used as a currency.

Another way to look at it is that as long as the network does not crack, Bitcoin is to useful as a currency for at least certain corner case uses.  Ergo, as awareness and utilization of it for such roles increase, so to will it's valuation against other currencies.

And this is not even considering the possibility for other currencies to undergo some sort of a crisis.  Or another round of bubble mania especially if the new users feel some pressure to get in.  An increasing price or threats of legislation could produce such motivation.


old_engineer
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November 28, 2011, 08:00:29 PM
 #144

It's still not clear what the endgame is. It hardly matters at this point, though. As I point out occasionally, if one business the size of a typical single supermarket used Bitcoins, liquidating their daily receipts would crash the market.  Bitcoin is now too dinky to be used as a currency.
Sure, bitcoin doesn't scale yet, but that's a half-hearted criticism.  After all, if a typical supermarket used bitcoins, then all their customers would have to buy bitcoins before spending them, and the net effect would be a wash.  You can't have chickens without eggs.

Your previous "bitcoin is losing $4 per month" trend prediction has clearly been broken, with the price between $2 and $4 since Oct 9th.  Let me ask you a question: how long does price need to stay in this range before you agree trend has been broken?  I think if it stays in the range until the end of the year, the trend is officially broken with a relatively flat 30 day moving average.
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November 28, 2011, 08:05:23 PM
 #145

It's still not clear what the endgame is. It hardly matters at this point, though. As I point out occasionally, if one business the size of a typical single supermarket used Bitcoins, liquidating their daily receipts would crash the market.  Bitcoin is now too dinky to be used as a currency.
Sure, bitcoin doesn't scale yet, but that's a half-hearted criticism.  After all, if a typical supermarket used bitcoins, then all their customers would have to buy bitcoins before spending them, and the net effect would be a wash.  You can't have chickens without eggs.

Your previous "bitcoin is losing $4 per month" trend prediction has clearly been broken, with the price between $2 and $4 since Oct 9th.  Let me ask you a question: how long does price need to stay in this range before you agree trend has been broken?  I think if it stays in the range until the end of the year, the trend is officially broken with a relatively flat 30 day moving average.

The trend has never been $4 per month which is clearly unsustainable from the onset. The trend is 40% drop per month which can go on indefinitely. It's the rate of change that matters not the value. If you are ever unsure whether that trend has actually changed or if it is maybe just a market bounce, take a look at Google Trends and see if there are actually more people interested, or just the same money as before moving around differently.

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November 28, 2011, 09:30:11 PM
 #146

If you are ever unsure whether that trend has actually changed or if it is maybe just a market bounce, take a look at Google Trends and see if there are actually more people interested, or just the same money as before moving around differently.
It's also important to remember that it isn't required for the Google Trend graph to rise for there to be fresh interest in Bitcoin. It's not often that an old Bitcoiner types "Bitcoin" to Google so it's safe to say that as long as the trend doesn't go to 0 there is continuous new interest in Bitcoin.

Right now the trend indicator has reached a fairly stable level after declining from peak hype levels. It's still on relatively healthly levels meaning there is a lot of new interest every day. I expect there to be a slow growth in trend levels in the future, based more on actual development, less on pure hype.

There are some other indicators that seem to indicate that we have reached a bottom at this time: http://www.blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions & http://www.blockchain.info/charts/cost-per-transaction

I have a hard time seeing it going anywhere but up from this point on, unless something radically negative happens. Although I do think that the growth will be different this time. I certainly hope it is, we don't really need a price increase that's 99% based on speculation. That doesn't help Bitcoin much because it will again lead to a massive decline. And it will take volatility through the roof again as well.

Personally I'm hoping the early adopters (those who haven't lost their coins) do the right thing when Bitcoin starts growing faster than it should. I hope they understand that when the speculative demand spikes, they should counter it by selling massively. If the big holders decided to sell big when the speculative demand is spiking and then hold when demand declines, that would keep price volatility in decent levels and it would help to circulate those coins.

It is puzzling that a lot of the early coins haven't moved regardless of price which means that most likely a high percentage of early coins have been lost. So maybe there are not as many active early adopters as some think. Maybe it's the speculators that hold all the cards these days, not the early adopters.


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old_engineer
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November 28, 2011, 10:23:09 PM
 #147

If you are ever unsure whether that trend has actually changed or if it is maybe just a market bounce, take a look at Google Trends and see if there are actually more people interested, or just the same money as before moving around differently.
I don't think that's a reliable indicator.  Simply reassuring current users that their value won't disappear breeds confidence, making it more likely that they will speculate/invest in the future of this virtual currency.  I know that others send $$ to the exchanges every month, like myself.

Also, 30-day moving average is a lagging indicator: note that it misses the clear run-ups in February and April by weeks.


I'm so curious to see where bitcoin goes from here. What will the next chapter be?  Where will it be a year from now? It's too interesting to not play this game while it's in flux.  We're making history, no matter which way it goes.
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November 28, 2011, 10:28:49 PM
 #148

As I point out occasionally, if one business the size of a typical single supermarket used Bitcoins, liquidating their daily receipts would crash the market.  Bitcoin is now too dinky to be used as a currency.

Nagle is looking only at half the equation- for the supermarket to acquire that many coins from that many buyers, those buyers must first buy the coins. Any company earning so much that it can crash the market with sales is simultaneously earning so much that demand for coins will rise in roughly similar proportion. Sprinkle in smart traders, bots, and arbitrage, and you'd see the volatility caused by a large company dwindle.

Further, by the time such a store was accepting coins, the market volume and depth would be far higher almost necessarily. This is Non-Issue #51851
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November 29, 2011, 06:36:59 AM
 #149


I've been saying "long, slow slide" for months.

It's still not clear what the endgame is. It hardly matters at this point, though. As I point out occasionally, if one business the size of a typical single supermarket used Bitcoins, liquidating their daily receipts would crash the market.  Bitcoin is now too dinky to be used as a currency.

Wow, imagine how much it would crash the price if bitcoin was accepted everywhere.

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November 29, 2011, 03:03:17 PM
 #150


I've been saying "long, slow slide" for months.

It's still not clear what the endgame is. It hardly matters at this point, though. As I point out occasionally, if one business the size of a typical single supermarket used Bitcoins, liquidating their daily receipts would crash the market.  Bitcoin is now too dinky to be used as a currency.

Wow, imagine how much it would crash the price if bitcoin was accepted everywhere.

We're doomed!

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November 29, 2011, 03:09:05 PM
 #151


I've been saying "long, slow slide" for months.

It's still not clear what the endgame is. It hardly matters at this point, though. As I point out occasionally, if one business the size of a typical single supermarket used Bitcoins, liquidating their daily receipts would crash the market.  Bitcoin is now too dinky to be used as a currency.

Wow, imagine how much it would crash the price if bitcoin was accepted everywhere.

We're doomed!

Simple solution ... do everything you can to slow or reverse the adoption of Bitcoin.  Do it now man before Bitcoins are worth pennies.
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November 30, 2011, 10:05:34 AM
 #152

Also, 30-day moving average is a lagging indicator: note that it misses the clear run-ups in February and April by weeks.

Looking at that graph, it is clear that it's a very good indicator of an upcoming rally - every time the price crosses the 30 day MA rally starts. And we currently are very close to the line. So either we break $4 and move on or drop below 2 soon.

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November 30, 2011, 03:07:16 PM
 #153

I'm trying to short the shit out of this market again and this "slow climb" is killing me.  Stop it!
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November 30, 2011, 03:10:51 PM
 #154

I'm trying to short the shit out of this market again and this "slow climb" is killing me.  Stop it!

Be patient, the fall is coming.

Where did you short from? I'm about 2.82 right now I think.

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November 30, 2011, 03:28:48 PM
 #155

I shorted at 2.75 and then more at 2.80.  I'm sure it will fall back to 2.50, even if momentarily.  The waiting is killing me.  I'm a day trader, not a big slow swing trader dangit.
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November 30, 2011, 03:31:22 PM
 #156

I shorted at 2.75 and then more at 2.80.  I'm sure it will fall back to 2.50, even if momentarily.  The waiting is killing me.  I'm a day trader, not a big slow swing trader dangit.

Shouldn't pick the big slow positions then.

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November 30, 2011, 03:51:15 PM
 #157

It used to swing whole dollar amounts in seconds a couple months ago!  I'm actually not waiting for it to hit 2.50, Just even 2.70 or 2.65 would be good.  The spread on Bitcoinica is so large it turns day trading into swing trading, though.  We need the spread of a few pips, not 10 cents!
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November 30, 2011, 04:47:29 PM
 #158

mtgoxlive is very damn exciting right now!
edit: BIDWALL AT 2.95 let's see $3 today!

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November 30, 2011, 04:51:01 PM
 #159

$3 here we come! Too bad I might lose out on this one again because I sold at the wrong price. 2.88 lol

Good thing im only playing around with less than 3 coins and I have more than that in my wallet.
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November 30, 2011, 04:52:18 PM
 #160

let's see $3 today!

No.

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