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Author Topic: Is the price slowly climbing?  (Read 22094 times)
tvbcof
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November 14, 2011, 07:42:19 AM
 #101

Ho-Lee-Shit!  Look at the 20,000 ask wall at 3.20 on bitcoinity.org!

Retract.  I think it is just a mess-up in Tradehill's feed or Bitcoinity's charts or something.  Back to business as normal.  That is to say, boring these last few days.


Semi-unretract.  Looks like the amazing ask-wall on Tradehill may actually be for real, although I cannot see signs of it on the UI.  I think it may be for real, and currently set at $3.18 since there have been some fairly monster (for Tradehill) buys smacking into it and dying there.
...

Observe in light of recent disruptions:  The aforementioned ask-wall was getting chewed on quickly for a while when it moved into the active area, but it was subsequently moved up out of that zone.  Both the buyers and sellers on Tradehill seem pretty stubborn and patient (and relatively few) so it seems to have stayed in tact at it's $3.15-ish for a long while.

The most interesting thing is that it did not budge with all the activity today.  Hypotheses:

 - The guy was sleeping soundly.

 - The guy has lost his interest in liquidating with significant haste for some reason.

 - The guy has lost his ability to move the wall around.  If he is the allinvain thief and Mt. Gox applied enough shame to Tradehill to cut him off or cooperate with any law enforcement who may have taken an interest, I could imagine that.


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November 16, 2011, 02:53:46 AM
 #102

welcome to another episode of "is the price slowly climbing?" till the next big (and probably final) chrash beneath the 2$ or/and into the 1$!

looks like the price is slowly climbing

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November 16, 2011, 04:08:34 AM
 #103

welcome to another episode of "is the price slowly climbing?" till the next big (and probably final) chrash beneath the 2$ or/and into the 1$!

looks like the price is slowly climbing



It's only a matter of time until we're back at $30! $100 by Christmas!

Ready, GO!

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November 16, 2011, 04:25:21 AM
 #104

welcome to another episode of "is the price slowly climbing?" till the next big (and probably final) chrash beneath the 2$ or/and into the 1$!

looks like the price is slowly climbing



It's only a matter of time until we're back at $30! $100 by Christmas!

Ready, GO!

Looking back at posts in July on BitcoinTalk, people were being completely serious when mentioning a rocketing price for bitcoins.

"I would be surprised if we do not hit $100 in September."

"I would be happy if it hit $40 by the end of the year."

Right now it seems many people would be delighted if we see in 2012 above $2.

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November 16, 2011, 05:40:07 AM
 #105

welcome to another episode of "is the price slowly climbing?" till the next big (and probably final) chrash beneath the 2$ or/and into the 1$!

looks like the price is slowly climbing



It's only a matter of time until we're back at $30! $100 by Christmas!

Ready, GO!

Looking back at posts in July on BitcoinTalk, people were being completely serious when mentioning a rocketing price for bitcoins.

"I would be surprised if we do not hit $100 in September."

"I would be happy if it hit $40 by the end of the year."

Right now it seems many people would be delighted if we see in 2012 above $2.

I'm confident we won't see prices higher than $4 for any significant amount of time during 2012.  Bitcoins credibility has been irreparably harmed and with FPGAs and the like coming onto the scene prices are far more likely to continue downward.  If bitcoin were to last for a decade or two, then we might see the kinds of prices we saw during the bubble, but it probably isn't going to last that long.
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November 16, 2011, 07:30:36 AM
 #106

It will be a long, long time before the price goes up significantly.  There are a lot of miners holding waiting for a rise in the price to sell, which will kill any rally that happens.  Not to mention people who have been buying all the way down. 

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November 16, 2011, 11:49:16 AM
 #107

welcome to another episode of "is the price slowly climbing?" till the next big (and probably final) chrash beneath the 2$ or/and into the 1$!

looks like the price is slowly climbing



It's only a matter of time until we're back at $30! $100 by Christmas!

Ready, GO!

Looking back at posts in July on BitcoinTalk, people were being completely serious when mentioning a rocketing price for bitcoins.

"I would be surprised if we do not hit $100 in September."

"I would be happy if it hit $40 by the end of the year."

Right now it seems many people would be delighted if we see in 2012 above $2.

I'm confident we won't see prices higher than $4 for any significant amount of time during 2012.  Bitcoins credibility has been irreparably harmed and with FPGAs and the like coming onto the scene prices are far more likely to continue downward.  If bitcoin were to last for a decade or two, then we might see the kinds of prices we saw during the bubble, but it probably isn't going to last that long.

FPGAs? Not any time soon bro...  Difficulty will handle tech advances.
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November 16, 2011, 12:24:54 PM
 #108

welcome to another episode of "is the price slowly climbing?" till the next big (and probably final) chrash beneath the 2$ or/and into the 1$!

looks like the price is slowly climbing



It's only a matter of time until we're back at $30! $100 by Christmas!

Ready, GO!

Looking back at posts in July on BitcoinTalk, people were being completely serious when mentioning a rocketing price for bitcoins.

"I would be surprised if we do not hit $100 in September."

"I would be happy if it hit $40 by the end of the year."

Right now it seems many people would be delighted if we see in 2012 above $2.

I'm confident we won't see prices higher than $4 for any significant amount of time during 2012.  Bitcoins credibility has been irreparably harmed and with FPGAs and the like coming onto the scene prices are far more likely to continue downward.  If bitcoin were to last for a decade or two, then we might see the kinds of prices we saw during the bubble, but it probably isn't going to last that long.

FPGAs? Not any time soon bro...  Difficulty will handle tech advances.

That may be.
Given that we reach the end of the block chain, however, FPGA miners are the only economically reasonable way to compute transactions, really.
Just because the USD is the worlds leading currency, I'd wager that the BTC/USD will reach 1 and oscillate thereabouts from hereon out.
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November 16, 2011, 02:43:38 PM
 #109

Quote
"I would be surprised if we do not hit $100 in September."
"I would be happy if it hit $40 by the end of the year."

Quote
"It will be a long, long time before the price goes up significantly."
"I'm confident we won't see prices higher than $4 for any significant amount of time during 2012."

There is only one difference between those posts. First two were made by optimists when price was going up, last two by pessimists, when price was going down. There's no reason to think later two have higher information value, because *nobody* knows what will happen in next month. Bitcoin world is moving extremely fast. When the price was on 30$ almost nobody expected that in few weeks price will be under 10$. So I have my mind open and I won't be surprised when something happen and we will see price at 10$ in few months again.

Personally I think that Bitcoin is worth much more than 20mil USD, which is current market cap and current low price only effect of panic sells of people with weak hands. Don't calculate bitcoin price just as cost of electricity for mining. You must also see an infrastructure which is already here - profesionalizing exchanges, software tools and services and experienced developers improving everything every day - making bitcoin as a secure way for transfering wealth around the world, instantly. It has much higher value than many other "startup companies" with bilions of dollars in stocks.

With current market price it sounds a little funny, but I still think that there's pretty big probability to have market cap in bilions of dollars. Currently there are still many weak hands watching dropping price (*omg it's dying i need to cash out NOOOOW*) and bear traders which are surfing on this panic waves. But then people awake and will see that Bitcoin is still here, untouched with their panicking and everything on technical side is working as proposed. Then we will see next rise of bitcoin value.

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November 16, 2011, 05:31:21 PM
 #110

software tools and services and experienced developers improving everything every day
On the other hand I think that the "weakest hands" in the bitcoin system are the developers. And this happens because miners are strangling the developers.

Bitcoin as an invention is one thing. Bitcoin as currently implemented is one of the most dysfunctional open source projects that ever existed. The not-invented-here mentality combined with the misanthropic attitude towards integration with the existing financial and accounting software is on the par with some of the worst-run government-subcontracted software projects. The result is glacial pace of progress in the actual software implementation.

So you may rant about the "weak hands" of the investors. But any smart investor will explain why "you don't ask the tailor if the suit fits". The platitudes about "smart people working here" aren't cutting it anymore.

Over the last couple of months I wrote several post with detailed problem explanations, so you'll have to review my posting history for the arguments.

Good luck in the search for greater fools!

Please comment, critique, criticize or ridicule BIP 2112: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=54382.0
Long-term mining prognosis: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91101.0
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November 16, 2011, 05:57:50 PM
 #111


on the par with some of the worst-run government-subcontracted software projects. The result is glacial pace of progress in the actual software implementation.


If you mean that development is slow, well IMO it should be.  Bitcoin has far-reaching, world-changing revolutionary implications and if not implemented exactly properly, might create more problems than it solves.  Let's not rush things -- let's make sure we get it right the first time.  The world kinda can't afford not to at this point.

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November 16, 2011, 05:58:56 PM
 #112

Quote
"I would be surprised if we do not hit $100 in September."
"I would be happy if it hit $40 by the end of the year."

Quote
"It will be a long, long time before the price goes up significantly."
"I'm confident we won't see prices higher than $4 for any significant amount of time during 2012."

There is only one difference between those posts. First two were made by optimists when price was going up, last two by pessimists, when price was going down. There's no reason to think later two have higher information value, because *nobody* knows what will happen in next month. Bitcoin world is moving extremely fast. When the price was on 30$ almost nobody expected that in few weeks price will be under 10$. So I have my mind open and I won't be surprised when something happen and we will see price at 10$ in few months again.

Personally I think that Bitcoin is worth much more than 20mil USD, which is current market cap and current low price only effect of panic sells of people with weak hands. Don't calculate bitcoin price just as cost of electricity for mining. You must also see an infrastructure which is already here - profesionalizing exchanges, software tools and services and experienced developers improving everything every day - making bitcoin as a secure way for transfering wealth around the world, instantly. It has much higher value than many other "startup companies" with bilions of dollars in stocks.

With current market price it sounds a little funny, but I still think that there's pretty big probability to have market cap in bilions of dollars. Currently there are still many weak hands watching dropping price (*omg it's dying i need to cash out NOOOOW*) and bear traders which are surfing on this panic waves. But then people awake and will see that Bitcoin is still here, untouched with their panicking and everything on technical side is working as proposed. Then we will see next rise of bitcoin value.


+1
Also, I love your pool man  Grin

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November 16, 2011, 05:59:34 PM
 #113

Good luck in the search for greater fools!

You probably don't get what I wanted to say. Bitcoin isn't ponzi scheme where you have to search new guys investing in the network. Bitcoin have value itself, just for it's own features. It's for example the easiest way how to transfer wealth around the world in realtime. My point is that "if bitcoin is a traditional company with stocks at 20mil USD, it's incredibly undervalued".

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November 16, 2011, 06:14:39 PM
 #114

When the price was on 30$ almost nobody expected that in few weeks price will be under 10$.

lol, I didn't predict $10 within a few weeks, but I did call out the batshit retards predicting $100. Got banned too for pointing out the obvious early adopter manipulation.
Aw shucks and guess what, now at $2.x early adopters are still manipulating the price.

My point is that "if bitcoin is a traditional company with stocks at 20mil USD, it's incredibly undervalued".

Except bitcoin isn't a company, and all the holders are spouting off whatever bs they think will get people to buy in.

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November 16, 2011, 06:21:02 PM
 #115

My point is that "if bitcoin is a traditional company with stocks at 20mil USD, it's incredibly undervalued".

I agree 100%. The thought that a private party could own every Bitcoin in existence for less than most stars are paid to film a movie is shocking. All it will take is one large company deciding it wants to utilize Bitcoin and the price will go stratospheric. On the other side of the coin, all it will take is one flaw by the development team and Bitcoin could end up worthless.

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November 16, 2011, 06:47:09 PM
 #116

You probably don't get what I wanted to say. Bitcoin isn't ponzi scheme where you have to search new guys investing in the network. Bitcoin have value itself, just for it's own features.
I agree with the 2 last sentences in the quote above. But I also feel that you didn't get why experienced investors feel as very repelling: you are one of the tailors that keeps claiming that the suit fits.

But at the opposite side of your work you perpetuate completely flawed JSON-RPC protocol with "long polling" addition where successful use is indistinguishable from a DDOS. All that while the existing financial software development community has almost 20 years of experience with protocols like FIX which are both more efficient and more resistant to DDOS attacks.

If the Bitcoin was the 20-million company the shareholders would remove you from your seat on the board of directors.

Please comment, critique, criticize or ridicule BIP 2112: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=54382.0
Long-term mining prognosis: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91101.0
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November 16, 2011, 07:02:59 PM
 #117

software tools and services and experienced developers improving everything every day
On the other hand I think that the "weakest hands" in the bitcoin system are the developers. And this happens because miners are strangling the developers.

Bitcoin as an invention is one thing. Bitcoin as currently implemented is one of the most dysfunctional open source projects that ever existed. The not-invented-here mentality combined with the misanthropic attitude towards integration with the existing financial and accounting software is on the par with some of the worst-run government-subcontracted software projects. The result is glacial pace of progress in the actual software implementation.

I tend to agree with the essence of this.

This is probably the biggest problem with open source projects. While open source software might be great, open source projects like bitcoin do not work at all, and are probably worst than government projects.

Why? Because there is no organizational structure, no clear goals, no clear and united strategies, no clear leadership, no clear decision making.

Instead, many people duplicate work without knowing and / or going different directions.

The bitcoin project is the best example of this theory.

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November 16, 2011, 07:04:48 PM
 #118

But at the opposite side of your work you perpetuate completely flawed JSON-RPC protocol with "long polling" addition where successful use is indistinguishable from a DDOS. All that while the existing financial software development community has almost 20 years of experience with protocols like FIX which are both more efficient and more resistant to DDOS attacks.

Excuse me, but you don't know what you're talking about. DDoS attacks aren't related to chosen protocol (although I agree with you that mining protocol isn't good). You probably forgot that PayPal, company with revenue 2.2 bilion USD in 2009, has been under DDoS many times.

Btw DDoSing mining pools is annoying,  mainly for pool operators, but you can see that it don't affected bitcoin security at all.

I also have many year experience as enterprise IT architect for one large european bank (enterprise architect has, in the oposite to solution architect, responsibility for overall logic infrastructure of the bank). Thanks to this experience I don't have any ideals about security and technologies used in bilion dollars companies.

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November 16, 2011, 07:13:39 PM
 #119

Why? Because there is no organizational structure, no clear goals, no clear and united strategies, no clear leadership, no clear decision making.

With all respect to you, you're probably not a developer and you probably didn't work for for large company with tens of thousands employees and thousands of people in IT department. There is NOT a clear strategy in such companies, because of their internal politics games and changes in structure.

Quote
The bitcoin project is the best example of this theory.

I cannot express how much I diagree with you! Bitcoin is the right oposite of typical opensource project. There is clear leadership, clear structure and responsibility, which is very rare in opensource projects. Of course it isn't ideal, but after 13 years of commercial experience in IT I see it as normal. There is also pretty good agreement between independent parties like pool owners, which are basicaly competitors and have only small reason to cooperate.

Please don't mix development in bitcoin core/protocol and development of other related projects, like mining pools (getwork interface, LP, alternative clients). It's completely different story, but it's good there IS some progress.

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November 16, 2011, 07:22:45 PM
 #120

Excuse me, but you don't know what you're talking about. DDoS attacks aren't related to chosen protocol (although I agree with you that mining protocol isn't good).
Excuse me, but I was working on defending against attacks on financial institutions even before DDOS become a common word.

If you have long-lasting (hours or days) TCP/IP connections you can ignore most SYN packets early on the switch.

Long-lasting sessions also allow you to do filtering by origin IP address.

Today's DDOS defense business is so focused on the HTTP protocol that it completely forgot the basic lessons in inter-networking. Overuse of HTTP does rot the brain. Edit: This does include the Paypal code monkeys who had fallen into the HTTP rut.

Please comment, critique, criticize or ridicule BIP 2112: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=54382.0
Long-term mining prognosis: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91101.0
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