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Author Topic: Is the price slowly climbing?  (Read 22110 times)
netrin
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October 22, 2011, 12:05:09 PM
 #21

@netrin: are we going to point 4 now?
My eyeballs say yes, if $3 wasn't already '4'. The previous corrections, August and September, were week long rallies, so there may be more chu-chu in this weekend train.



I expect '5' will be when even I am no longer optimistic, when you've withdrawn from markets into the banks, realized that bitcoin was a ponzi scheme after all, and the Speculation subforum is a depressed ghost town. That you're even considering this Elliott nonsense with a hopeful eye tells me we've still got more pain to come, before a weak pathetic bloodied crawl up III(i). I don't think the market fears another drop to '5', it's looking forward to it.

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October 22, 2011, 01:05:25 PM
 #22

Looks like the market gives second chances. Someone dump 20,000 coins and get some good money.

@netrin: but what if we were at C-5-II?

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October 22, 2011, 01:20:33 PM
 #23

The nice thing about Elliott Waves is that every serious trader knows about them and at least partially basis their decisions on them.  That by definition distorts the wave.

Did you just call me a non-serious trader? Oh well. Cool

I deliberately ignore chartist theories whenever I have a long-term goal in mind or another model to work on (read: on all my speculations so far). Chartist theories are an endless loop by definition, since if they were true, every trader should assume the other traders to act based on the theory, which means they will act the same way as he. This leads to the time-scale of all changes converging to the thinking/reaction time. Time "collapses", the market would reach the final state any analysis predicts immediately. This is a nonsensical outcome I haven't seen in real life.

That's the theoretical indicator that something is wrong with them. There is another, an explanation why people would still cling to it.

Chartism can make predictions that are true more than 50% of the time, without giving a positive expectation value on speculations. Enough people think in binary decisions ("will it go up or down") instead of using the correct statistical method: µ = sum over probability times earnings balance of each scenario.

If someone just counts "how often was he right", I can summarize the last half year of Bitcoin as an almost perfect "analyst" by saying "just follow the monthly trend". It was wrong only once, around the 32-peak. I doubt it is a useful method though. Wink
netrin
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October 22, 2011, 01:22:03 PM
 #24

@netrin: but what if we were at C-5-II?
Today? Then my interpretation of the chart would be very wrong and I won't recommend listening to me further. Smiley


If someone just counts "how often was he right"
It's also dangerous to listen to the conclusions of others without understanding from what data and methods he derived those conclusions. For example, on the three day chart, I had been watching an inverted parabola (a nice gentle peaks) and am tempted to call $3 the local top (I don't believe it is, but why not?). I drew up my chart last week before we hit $2, so to assume the chart definitively predicts a high is foolish.

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October 22, 2011, 11:13:59 PM
 #25

My Elliott waves were poorly received in the TA thread, but to me, we're clearly in the middle of the final c wave since June and I expect a massive year long rally (III) before the end of the year. In shorter terms, I expect we'll climb a bit and finally crash to the base ($1's) in a month's time. Since I updated this chart last week, bitcoin continues to follow this textbook pattern. We're now in the 4th wave before the 5th and final plunge.


ah! thats a good one.

its a great one.  Some additional comments:

a)  the only absolute rule for the corrective wave II is that it "can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one" (which was $0.00-$0.10).

b)  "prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% of the wave one gains" - fat finger measurement places the 62% retracement of wave one ($0.10-$30) at about $0.75-$1.00.

c) "Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond."  - fat finger places 1.6 times wave A (from $30 to $6), starting from B ($12) to down around $0.75.


Drawing trendlines, and placing particular importance that the bottom of the long-term channel holds (it broke at $3.30) was "technical analysis".  Now by focusing on EWT, we're just practicing straight numerology (mixed with a little mass psychology) Grin


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netrin
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October 23, 2011, 01:41:49 AM
 #26

ah! thats a good one.
its a great one.  Some additional comments... Now by focusing on EWT, we're just practicing straight numerology (mixed with a little mass psychology) Grin
The backhanded compliments here have been gentler slaps than elsewhere. I'll take it. Thanks. I'm quite fond of this astrological chart myself. Smiley


$0.75 would paint the streets a brighter shade of blood than I could stomach. BitcoinBull, as I said earlier, bitcoin will be "deflowered by a chainsaw" if 5/c turns into an negative impulse (five waves "d" and "e"). Wave II (June-Dec) just looks picture perfect to me. What else would confirm a reversal?



a)  the only absolute rule for the corrective wave II is that it "can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one" (which was $0.00-$0.10).

b)  "prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% of the wave one gains" - fat finger measurement places the 62% retracement of wave one ($0.10-$30) at about $0.75-$1.00.
Considering this is a log chart, $0 is infinitely down. I've thrown both of the above rules out with respect to Waves I,II, relying solely on rule (c) and my fat fingers. I've applied rules on a,b,c, but I don't trust bitcoin nor my fat fingers on tiny 1-5 scales. Here's to palm reading!

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October 23, 2011, 03:30:40 AM
 #27

I think it's going to hang around $3 for a week or two, then go up to $4 briefly in November, then gradually crash really really low like slightly below $1.

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netrin
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October 23, 2011, 03:54:36 AM
 #28

I think the longer it takes to get to $4, the less likely it will get there at all before crashing.

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October 26, 2011, 01:26:05 PM
 #29

Noticing that we are in the process of a slow climb again. The support at $2.x has been surprisingly strong. This will raise the general confidence people have in Bitcoin.

The 2.04 low hasn't held for long enough yet, not even close, but at least it's looking better. If $3 breaks in the near future, I think there is a high probability that we'll see a rally that'll extend to $4.x at least.

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October 26, 2011, 01:59:45 PM
 #30

Don't fall for it.

It's the continuation of the pump & dump pattern, if you buy now you would get lucky to even cover the exchange fees on low volume. But if you're unlucky you end up holding the bag.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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October 26, 2011, 02:21:18 PM
 #31

Don't fall for it.

It's the continuation of the pump & dump pattern, if you buy now you would get lucky to even cover the exchange fees on low volume. But if you're unlucky you end up holding the bag.
I'm not about to fall for anything, but I don't really know what you're talking about. We've had very high volume and volatility lately, today it's been a bit quiet but having a slow climb during a quiet day is a good sign.

I'm not advocating an all-in move at this time nor am I advocating buying and holding but I feel there is a possibility for a rally right now, what people choose to do about it is their concern.

Any type of all-in at this stage is very risky but I do think a partial buy is not a bad move right now.

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helloworld
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October 26, 2011, 02:39:19 PM
 #32

today it's been a bit quiet

Today I saw one of the quietest, flattest periods I've ever seen - Check out the almost straight line at 2.74 level.

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October 26, 2011, 03:14:39 PM
 #33

I guess someone has finally decided to apply a volatility tax in the form of distributed bids on all movement. The downside I think is that if things move big, they might really start to move because of all of the built up pressure.

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October 26, 2011, 08:20:49 PM
 #34


No, the price is not slowly climbing.

At this point, the only remaining question is how the end game plays out.

As I've been saying for a while, if you're not out, get out. Especially get any cash and Bitcoins out of the "exchanges" if you're not trading them in the next 24 hours.
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October 26, 2011, 08:37:32 PM
 #35


No, the price is not slowly climbing.

At this point, the only remaining question is how the end game plays out.

As I've been saying for a while, if you're not out, get out. Especially get any cash and Bitcoins out of the "exchanges" if you're not trading them in the next 24 hours.

+1 for the price part

-1 for the get out cash part. I don't think Mtgox will runaway with our money. Bitcoins can be stored in one's wallet and move them when needed. But cash takes a 2 days at least.

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October 26, 2011, 10:16:30 PM
 #36

notice the long term MACD on a rising trendline with a recent crossover UP.  this is strengthening.



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October 27, 2011, 07:41:52 PM
 #37

I'm amazed how many babysteps the price makes. Are we going to $4?

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October 27, 2011, 07:43:35 PM
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wobber
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October 27, 2011, 07:50:00 PM
 #39



Can you please explain?

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October 27, 2011, 07:58:25 PM
 #40

Can you please explain?
Sure.
The red lines represent resistance lines, you can see they indicate steady growth. The July peak broke through the resistance line due to massive influx of interest, and bubble formation. Since then we've seen a correction movement to deflate the prices back into the stable range, which has now hit the bottom resistance line.

The blue line is Elliot wave analysis, which is a stock market analysis and prediction method. Basically it says that the stock prices move in predictable waves up and down, on all time scales. You can see that on the long time scale, we have just completed one wave, and are now at the bottom. The growth we see today is the start of the second long term wave, which will go much higher. Also on the shorter scale we see waves, represented by the sawtooth behaviour. This, too, fulfills a perfect Elliot wave, and has bottomed out a few days ago.

From this we can tell that the bitcoin prices will go up a lot. At least to $20 again, but if the rising price spawns another influx, we can expect a similar breakout as in July, with rates up to $50.

I hope that explains it for you.

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