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Author Topic: Is the price slowly climbing?  (Read 22099 times)
BTCurious
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October 27, 2011, 07:59:44 PM
 #41

Oh man, I can't do this with a straight face.

For more inane yabbering and retrospective predictions, please see http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/

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October 27, 2011, 08:01:33 PM
 #42

So no new lower lows?

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October 27, 2011, 08:05:46 PM
 #43

Almost afraid to ask but how exactly do you determine the lower trendline?
Seems kind of arbitrary to me...

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October 27, 2011, 08:09:56 PM
 #44

So no new lower lows?

i don't think so.  i'm pretty good at picking tops and bottoms as my gold thread shows:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.0

all the ingredients are here for a major reversal rally to new highs.  i can smell it.  the # forum visitors is up.  the mtgoxlive logins are up. the bid walls are up.  the whole bid mountain is up.  the intensity of the whole debate is up.  sentiment has bottomed with the Bears and shorts declaring victory and calling Bitcoin dead.  i've been playing the general stock market for years and this is the stuff of major reversals. 

many of the old guard are showing up here again b/c deep down they smell a bottom too.

all the macroeconomic indicators would support this view as well and i have sprayed those signals and signs all over these threads.  i would take them seriously.
BTCurious
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October 27, 2011, 08:14:49 PM
 #45

Almost afraid to ask but how exactly do you determine the lower trendline?
Seems kind of arbitrary to me...
So no new lower lows?
Crap, it seems I made a mistake in my analysis. Here is my new analysis:


As you can see, the resistance lines are much stronger since the bubble burst. In fact, they are converging, which indicates an increasing certainty in the prediction. As such, I can say with 100% certainty that the bitcoin rates will hit negative $5 before the end of December, due to the bitcoin economy collapsing, and people actually paying you to get rid of the horrible investment that bitcoin will turn out to be. Of course, no one will want to buy, so the price will go even lower than that.

This is also supported by the MACD lines, and the more complex MACADAMIA N.U.T.S. investment guidelines.

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October 27, 2011, 08:17:50 PM
 #46

Use a log scale and you will see that your fluctuation does not change with price. Just because you fit a linear model doesn't meaning you are modeling a linear phenomenon. If I take an average of the entire history of the price of bitcoin it doesn't mean that the price will stay on that average. Hey I fit my model to the data, so it's gotta be right. Wrong.

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October 27, 2011, 08:20:11 PM
 #47

sentiment has bottomed with the Bears and shorts declaring victory and calling Bitcoin dead.  
Nope its just you declaring victory over the fundamentals.

The slope of enlightenment will come, but is it here yet?
I doubt it, i refuse to believe the final faith of bitcoin would have to be that pathetic.

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October 27, 2011, 08:32:15 PM
 #48

Good show BTCurious. I'm sadden tho smiling at your positive reception. Keep up the good work.

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October 27, 2011, 08:38:29 PM
 #49

The thing is almost always the price rallied a bit, someone dumped a few thousand coins killing the rally. This cannot be predicted by any technical analysis .

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BTCurious
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October 27, 2011, 08:44:45 PM
 #50

Use a log scale and you will see that your fluctuation does not change with price. Just because you fit a linear model doesn't meaning you are modeling a linear phenomenon. If I take an average of the entire history of the price of bitcoin it doesn't mean that the price will stay on that average. Hey I fit my model to the data, so it's gotta be right. Wrong.
Of course you're right. I used the linear scale so as not to confuse people. When I do the analysis in a log scale, the indicators still stand though.


Of course, because we're using a log scale, we have to use log resistance lines. We can see the resistance going vertically down at the end of December, indicating a crossover at the Point at Infinity, which is the only way a negative ratio can be represented on a log scale.

I hope this stifles your concerns.

The thing is almost always the price rallied a bit, someone dumped a few thousand coins killing the rally. This cannot be predicted by any technical analysis.
If it "almost always" happens, then this is a very reliable signal! This is known as a setpoint, and is included in the TRIX index which you can find on the bitcoin chart technical indicator list. The TRIX will make people think there will be a rally, buying lots of bitcoins, and giving a lot of money to The Manipulator. A good stock analyst can however use TRIX of his own, and because of these TRIX, people will give him money. I can expand more on that later, I'm in a bit of a hurry, since my TRIX are running out.

Good show BTCurious. I'm sadden tho smiling at your positive reception. Keep up the good work.
Thank you, kind sir. May your tradings be furtitious.

(PS:
    for·tu·i·tous [fawr-too-i-tuhs, -tyoo-]
    1. happening or produced by chance; accidental: a fortuitous encounter.
)

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October 27, 2011, 09:32:00 PM
 #51

This thread is freakin hilarious.
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October 27, 2011, 09:48:17 PM
 #52

...
Of course, because we're using a log scale, we have to use log resistance lines. We can see the resistance going vertically down at the end of December, indicating a crossover at the Point at Infinity, which is the only way a negative ratio can be represented on a log scale.
...

Perhaps you could switch to the frequency domain and make use of complex numbers?


BTCurious
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October 27, 2011, 09:50:43 PM
 #53

...
Of course, because we're using a log scale, we have to use log resistance lines. We can see the resistance going vertically down at the end of December, indicating a crossover at the Point at Infinity, which is the only way a negative ratio can be represented on a log scale.
...
Perhaps you could switch to the frequency domain and make use of complex numbers?
It's a good idea, however, I can assure you, the numbers and math involved is already quite complex, and frequently messed up, so I think I have already incorporated your suggestions.
Thanks for the ideas though!

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October 28, 2011, 12:29:43 AM
 #54

I'm laughing my ass off hear.  Excellent charts. Technical analysis with colorful lines never lies!
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October 28, 2011, 06:04:10 PM
 #55

The thing is almost always the price rallied a bit, someone dumped a few thousand coins killing the rally. This cannot be predicted by any technical analysis .

The market's been ticking like clockwork since early October. People dump on a rally because they think prices are jumping up like horny chihuahuas.


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October 28, 2011, 06:13:12 PM
 #56

The thing is almost always the price rallied a bit, someone dumped a few thousand coins killing the rally. This cannot be predicted by any technical analysis .

The market's been ticking like clockwork since early October. People dump on a rally because they think prices are jumping up like horny chihuahuas.



Sooo... you think it's going lower?

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netrin
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October 28, 2011, 06:15:35 PM
 #57

I'm still long this week, but my money's on $0.6-1.1. Certainly less than $2.

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October 28, 2011, 06:21:23 PM
 #58

I'm still long this week, but my money's on $0.6-1.1. Certainly less than $2.

How long are you?  What do you think it will top at before it drops again?

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netrin
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October 28, 2011, 06:43:10 PM
 #59

If I were rock solid confident, I wouldn't be posting my charts. The blue (Hourly) scale is garbage data. I invite you to find an Elliott thread with lower noise:substance ratio.


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October 28, 2011, 07:00:40 PM
 #60

Hey Chodpaba, BTCurious is just taking a piss on this thread. You answered another of his questions elsewhere. Clearly we can't both be right. Smiley

I will call $3.36 preliminary confirmation of market reversal. And $4.10 as confirmation of a market reversal.


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