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Author Topic: Is the price slowly climbing?  (Read 22102 times)
tvbcof
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November 03, 2011, 05:37:06 PM
 #81


its just greed in the opposite sense.  the bears want to pick up coins at $.01/BTC as if they somehow deserve to be early adopters and ride the wave back up gladly cheering the price rise and pumping their brilliance at picking a bottom.  all the hoarding arguments would just vanish.

but markets are rude and unaccommodating in that sense.

On the contrary, I consider the markets to have been much more accommodating than I expected.  $3.00 (much less @2.00) was beyond what I dared to hope for in July (though I had some bid in that range just in case.)  As a consequence of the compliant markets, I hold way more BTC than I ever expected to.

I consider myself to be as bullish as anyone, but I see no problem real problem with a rather extended period of stagnation, demoralization, loss of interest, etc.  I'll just exploit the situation as it occurs and I've got plenty of time.  Of course I run the very real risk of ending up the 'bag holder', but I'm under no illusion that Bitcoin is without risk.


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November 03, 2011, 05:53:13 PM
 #82

its just greed in the opposite sense.  the bears want to pick up coins at $.01/BTC as if they somehow deserve to be early adopters

I doubt it will ever come to that, but current prices are just to rich for me.

From common indicators I would consider prices around one magnitude below what they are now fair.
At these one would still need a fair amount of cash to buy bitcoins in the thousands. That is just the figure where the today issued bitcoins would be brought into circulation to a ratio of 50%, the most healthy figure for growth.

I consider myself bullish at these figures and once we reach that point (about 0.37USD) I'll buy and hold. I think we will go below that though since bubbles normally occur in 2 directions.

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November 03, 2011, 06:05:08 PM
 #83

There is so many people already involved in Bitcoin that it will not "reach" 0.37 USD/BTC anymore. It will either slowly succeed, or slowly lower, or finally terminate (like not traded in public anymore).

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November 03, 2011, 06:09:18 PM
 #84

There is so many people already involved in Bitcoin that it will not "reach" 0.37 USD/BTC anymore.

this is correct.  you can already see it in that the top 10 Bitcoin "hoarders" have only hoarded more on this price dip.  the price is just too cheap to ignore.
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November 03, 2011, 06:13:31 PM
 #85

There is so many people already involved in Bitcoin that it will not "reach" 0.37 USD/BTC anymore. It will either slowly succeed, or slowly lower, or finally terminate (like not traded in public anymore).
That figure includes the current population of bitcoin users, if they were getting lower short term that would have been lower.
But don't mind, that figure is just were I consider prices to be fair....

@cyperdoc, if they stay at it, it is as simple for me: I'll stay away from bitcoin as far as possible.
Or to put it more directly: If we don't reach that price I won't be joining the economy, even if I miss something.

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November 03, 2011, 06:17:43 PM
 #86

There is so many people already involved in Bitcoin that it will not "reach" 0.37 USD/BTC anymore. It will either slowly succeed, or slowly lower, or finally terminate (like not traded in public anymore).
That figure includes the current population of bitcoin users, if they were getting lower short term that would have been lower.
But don't mind, that figure is just were I consider prices to be fair....

@cyperdoc, if they stay at it, it is as simple for me: I'll stay away from bitcoin as far as possible.

thats fine.  you're entitled to your opinion just like anyone of us here.

but sometimes you have to listen to what the market is telling you.  the steadily rising MACD, the break of the upper bound downward trendline, and the slow upward climb indicate to me at least that the bottom is in.

trying to impose you own sense of value on the market could cost you a lost opportunity.
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November 03, 2011, 06:23:59 PM
 #87

Ho-Lee-Shit!  Look at the 20,000 ask wall at 3.20 on bitcoinity.org!

Retract.  I think it is just a mess-up in Tradehill's feed or Bitcoinity's charts or something.  Back to business as normal.  That is to say, boring these last few days.


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November 03, 2011, 07:23:08 PM
 #88

Ho-Lee-Shit!  Look at the 20,000 ask wall at 3.20 on bitcoinity.org!

Retract.  I think it is just a mess-up in Tradehill's feed or Bitcoinity's charts or something.  Back to business as normal.  That is to say, boring these last few days.


For those who value stability, no news is good news, eh?

Correct, and I should welcome it for several reasons.  But in reality I'd rather have some excitement even if it means losing money...adrenaline junky I suppose.


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November 04, 2011, 12:39:15 AM
 #89

Ho-Lee-Shit!  Look at the 20,000 ask wall at 3.20 on bitcoinity.org!

Retract.  I think it is just a mess-up in Tradehill's feed or Bitcoinity's charts or something.  Back to business as normal.  That is to say, boring these last few days.


For those who value stability, no news is good news, eh?

Correct, and I should welcome it for several reasons.  But in reality I'd rather have some excitement even if it means losing money...adrenaline junky I suppose.



Yay for ultra low volume!

You could start watching the GLBSE assets, charts.glbse.com, they all jump around independently and at random.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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November 04, 2011, 12:49:30 AM
 #90

trying to impose you own sense of value on the market could cost you a lost opportunity.

Not for me.
I'm looking for a way out of the system, out of this paradigm and out of bondage from vested interests, on a more fundamental way you can understand.

Bitcoin would fail this if prices continues to be at this level and it would not be part of this way which I will reach someday even without it.

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November 04, 2011, 12:52:42 AM
 #91


     a.  downturn of the USD
     b.  sovereign bond selloff
     c.  US Treasury selloff
     d.  gold/silver stuck
     e.  stock mkt reflating
6.  overall bid side has inflated



good points

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November 04, 2011, 12:41:19 PM
 #92

Of course the price is climbing. There hasn't been a crash, but a spike caused by a Bitcoin boom (because it was in the media).

At the beginning of the year the price for Bitcoins was way below 1$. Then, with Silkroad and stuff it had that big boom, because people talked about it. This caused interest and lead to a spike. Before that everyone said that we would probably reach Bitcoin/Dollar parity this or next year. The year is ending and the Bitcoin multiplied. So in reality is that it is climbing quickly, not slowly.

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November 04, 2011, 06:28:11 PM
 #93

What seems to be happening lately is - not much. Volume (in currency) is way down, and the price isn't changing much.  That may be the shape of the endgame. It's zombie mode, the fate of many startups. They're not going anywhere, they can't pay back their investors, but they generate just enough activity to keep alive.

Nagle PLEASE short the currency!!! I really want to see you rewarded for your prescience!!!
If I could buy a 3-month option (from someone who would reliably pay up if they lost), I would have bought one months ago. That's a straight bet that, 3 months later, the price will be lower. I wouldn't short Bitcoin, though. You're too vulnerable to a short-term swing.

I'd like to see a digital currency that works well enough to compete with Paypal. I've seen Digicash, Beenz, and Flooz tank.  Bitcoin isn't going to do much better.
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November 04, 2011, 06:35:21 PM
 #94

How can Bitcoin "tank"? There is no head office, no employees, no overhead. It could see low usage, but it will always be there. There is no way to turn off the lights on Bitcoin. A better pessimistic prediction would be to say that it will be permenantly relegated to nerds and criminals.

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November 04, 2011, 07:28:26 PM
 #95

If I could buy a 3-month option (from someone who would reliably pay up if they lost), I would have bought one months ago. That's a straight bet that, 3 months later, the price will be lower. I wouldn't short Bitcoin, though. You're too vulnerable to a short-term swing.

I might accept a friendly bet today. What are the terms?

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tvbcof
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November 04, 2011, 08:04:50 PM
 #96

Ho-Lee-Shit!  Look at the 20,000 ask wall at 3.20 on bitcoinity.org!

Retract.  I think it is just a mess-up in Tradehill's feed or Bitcoinity's charts or something.  Back to business as normal.  That is to say, boring these last few days.


Semi-unretract.  Looks like the amazing ask-wall on Tradehill may actually be for real, although I cannot see signs of it on the UI.  I think it may be for real, and currently set at $3.18 since there have been some fairly monster (for Tradehill) buys smacking into it and dying there.

If it is for real, the size, sign, and price are all very interesting, in addition to the fact that it happened on Tradehill.

  http://bitcoinity.org/markets?currency=USD&exchange=tradehill


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November 04, 2011, 08:06:27 PM
 #97

A better pessimistic prediction would be to say that it will be permenantly relegated to nerds and criminals.

I'd like one of them CSI or terrorism TV series to have a puzzle involving Bitcoin. Solved in Visual Basic as always...

And yeah, sideways is good ways.
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November 05, 2011, 01:23:21 AM
 #98

How can Bitcoin "tank"? There is no head office, no employees, no overhead. It could see low usage, but it will always be there. There is no way to turn off the lights on Bitcoin.
When the exchanges shut down, Bitcoin is effectively dead. You can sell coins on eBay or Craigslist, but with no liquidity, nobody will accept them for routine transactions.
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November 05, 2011, 01:32:04 AM
 #99

How can Bitcoin "tank"? There is no head office, no employees, no overhead. It could see low usage, but it will always be there. There is no way to turn off the lights on Bitcoin.
When the exchanges shut down, Bitcoin is effectively dead. You can sell coins on eBay or Craigslist, but with no liquidity, nobody will accept them for routine transactions.

Define "dead." Bitcoin is breaking all the rules. There are still a lot of rules to break, like needing centralized exchanges. In fact, Bitcoin will show superliquidity when 24/7/365 decentralized exchanges allow 21st C. cryptocurrency to replace 18th C. financial traditions.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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November 05, 2011, 02:22:17 AM
 #100

How can Bitcoin "tank"? There is no head office, no employees, no overhead. It could see low usage, but it will always be there. There is no way to turn off the lights on Bitcoin.
When the exchanges shut down, Bitcoin is effectively dead. You can sell coins on eBay or Craigslist, but with no liquidity, nobody will accept them for routine transactions.

I don't expect the exchanges to shut down without being forced to by the various arms of the corp/gov systems which mold the behavior of the peeps...or attempt to at least.  I am suspecting that it would be quite a challenge to shut down the system totally since it would require good coordination between a large proportion of the world's governments.

At that point I could imagine a pretty strong interest in having some BTC under one's control, particularly since a shut-down attempt is unlikely absent other kinds of monetary crisis.  It would be recognized immediately as an act of desperation.  In that scenario the value of BTC could shoot up much like the value of illegal drugs.  A big difference is that the kinds of people who are interested in pot often don't have a great deal of money.  Those who would be interested in BTC are likely to have a great deal of money.

I would council the powers that be that the best strategy to deal with Bitcoin and control it's potential would be to try to limit  the number of exchanges to a small number and obtain control of them.  Simultaneously obtain as much of the currency base as possible as quietly as possible, and tag and monitor the participants of the community to the highest degree possible.  It's all a matter dealing with emerging threats to address issues of national security.


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