Something, something, something, technical analysis

[BitchicksHusband]

5 figures won't take 10 months.

[sgbett]

5 figures won't take 10 months.

That's certainly another point of view!

[bitebits]

5 figures won't take 10 months.

$666.66 could even happen within 24 hours!

Going to put your post in my top5 posts sgbett

yes 5 figures in 10 years is probably a more realistic target, though thoroughly less popular an opinion.

I hold for that scenario, prepared for zero, and insured against the outrageously unlikely moon scenario. I sleep well at night.

[zimmah]

5 figures won't take 10 months.

That's certainly another point of view!

though i agree with this, i think it will be much closer to 10 months than to 10 years.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

SMA 200 easily taken - do you think we will now take ~$676 resistance also soon?

[oda.krell]

6h, 12h, 1d, 3d and 1w MACD, all positive as of now. The 3d is declining and somewhat close to zero perhaps, and technically there's no closed green 1w candle yet, but you get the idea: confluence of momentum across all relevant time scales is overwhelmingly pointing towards another decisive move up.

Exceptions are always possible of course, but I personally wouldn't dare shorting right now.

[lebing]

 

[zimmah]

Some old charts i made back in may with fib fans seem still pretty accurate (not perfect, but still not bad).





If the chart manages to hold, than we will see $1000 no later than september 12th.

So far, the fib lines have shown support and resistance, although they do sometimes get broken for a short while. But usually not more than a couple of minutes. The middle lines also show some amount of support/resistance but much less than the outer lines. (Around June i thought we would stay above the 2nd lowest line instead of the lowest, but we fell down below it after a few days and stayed there, for now at least, as i expect us to climb towards higher lines soon). Possibly even the top line, but that would mean a serious rally.

[oda.krell]

This is starting to look a lot like the SMA200 re-test I've been arguing for in RyNin's thread. Staying above, or at least closing above $611, would mean support from SMA200. Not sure if that'll happen though, panic seems to be kicking in. Daily close above would be a pretty bullish sign on the other hand.

Next step in case it breaks: I'd much prefer if $600 holds, for the obvious psychological reasons, but even until $580 to $590 (SMA50) we're safe in my opinion, but that's about as low as I currently expect it to go, if at all.

It becomes problematic from $550 to $560, I think. Not finding support there will put a damper on the entire upwards trend we've been starting to trust since the April 11 bottom. If it would come to that, which I don't really believe to be that likely, we're probably going back to fight for the $470 to $510 region again.

[T.Stuart]

This is starting to look a lot like the SMA200 re-test I've been arguing for in RyNin's thread. Staying above, or at least closing above $611, would mean support from SMA200. Not sure if that'll happen though, panic seems to be kicking in. Daily close above would be a pretty bullish sign on the other hand.

Next step in case it breaks: I'd much prefer if $600 holds, for the obvious psychological reasons, but even until $580 to $590 (SMA50) we're safe in my opinion, but that's about as low as I currently expect it to go, if at all.

It becomes problematic from $550 to $560, I think. Not finding support there will put a damper on the entire upwards trend we've been starting to trust since the April 11 bottom. If it would come to that, which I don't really believe to be that likely, we're probably going back to fight for the $470 to $510 region again.

A balanced view.

But with a bit of luck we may not panic quite so much. I mean, there is absolutely no substantial meaning behind the latest news flash at all. It's a continuation of the current European attitude, nothing more, nothing less.

[oda.krell]

This is starting to look a lot like the SMA200 re-test I've been arguing for in RyNin's thread. Staying above, or at least closing above $611, would mean support from SMA200. Not sure if that'll happen though, panic seems to be kicking in. Daily close above would be a pretty bullish sign on the other hand.

Next step in case it breaks: I'd much prefer if $600 holds, for the obvious psychological reasons, but even until $580 to $590 (SMA50) we're safe in my opinion, but that's about as low as I currently expect it to go, if at all.

It becomes problematic from $550 to $560, I think. Not finding support there will put a damper on the entire upwards trend we've been starting to trust since the April 11 bottom. If it would come to that, which I don't really believe to be that likely, we're probably going back to fight for the $470 to $510 region again.

A balanced view.

But with a bit of luck we may not panic quite so much. I mean, there is absolutely no substantial meaning behind the latest news flash at all. It's a continuation of the current European attitude, nothing more, nothing less.

Oh, I agree. It's more or less "no news" news: Banks are still allowed to take customers that work in the Bitcoin field, but are not supposed to dabble in it themselves until: regulation regulation regulation (let's see what that'll look like).

But as always, technicals and fundamentals work in tandem. And this news item came a time where the market is, once again, in doubt about where to go. Small scale volume is surprisingly supportive of the ~$600 level, but larger volume orders are, by and large, of the selling variety, for whatever reason (impatience, risk control, "directing" the market -- doesn't really matter). So even "no news" news can be enough to trigger a brief burst of panic.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

6h, 12h, 1d, 3d and 1w MACD, all positive as of now. The 3d is declining and somewhat close to zero perhaps, and technically there's no closed green 1w candle yet, but you get the idea: confluence of momentum across all relevant time scales is overwhelmingly pointing towards another decisive move up.

All MACDs between 1h and 12h became red now.

[Tzupy]

I wonder if oda.krell will post a bearish scenario. So far he was called a 'short-sighted perma-bear' for being rationally bullish.
If he posts a bearish analysis he may be called a 'bear troll'!  Seriously, there are reasons to look at the bearish scenario:
- the uptrend above 600$ (since 26th May) was pumped with $ swaps on BFX and the loans have since ballooned to almost 30M$.
- the uptrend was helped by a (temporary?) removal of BTC from the market, possibly used to pump certain altcoins.
- the Chinese bagholders are getting impatient, and just the lack of new FUD prevents some serious dumping.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

I wonder if oda.krell will post a bearish scenario. So far he was called a 'short-sighted perma-bear' for being rationally bullish.
If he posts a bearish analysis he may be called a 'bear troll'!   Seriously, there are reasons to look at the bearish scenario:
- the uptrend above 600$ (since 26th May) was pumped with $ swaps on BFX and the loans have since ballooned to almost 30M$.
- the uptrend was helped by a (temporary?) removal of BTC from the market, possibly used to pump certain altcoins.
- the Chinese bagholders are getting impatient, and just the lack of new FUD prevents some serious dumping.

I agree. I am most worried about almost everybody (reasonable) being convinced we are going up and too many leveraged longs on 'Finex (in proportion to actual bids). Will see.

[inca]

I wonder if oda.krell will post a bearish scenario. So far he was called a 'short-sighted perma-bear' for being rationally bullish.
If he posts a bearish analysis he may be called a 'bear troll'!   Seriously, there are reasons to look at the bearish scenario:
- the uptrend above 600$ (since 26th May) was pumped with $ swaps on BFX and the loans have since ballooned to almost 30M$.
- the uptrend was helped by a (temporary?) removal of BTC from the market, possibly used to pump certain altcoins.
- the Chinese bagholders are getting impatient, and just the lack of new FUD prevents some serious dumping.

Tzupy = perma bear

[oda.krell]

6h, 12h, 1d, 3d and 1w MACD, all positive as of now. The 3d is declining and somewhat close to zero perhaps, and technically there's no closed green 1w candle yet, but you get the idea: confluence of momentum across all relevant time scales is overwhelmingly pointing towards another decisive move up.

All MACDs between 1h and 12h became red now.

Yes. One of the weakest, and admittedly, most thoughtless predictions I made in there, in my opinion.

I suppose the confluence of upwards momentum has prevented us from a sharper drop so far, but nonetheless: at the time of posting, price was at ~$650, and it went down as much as $40 in between. Not enough for me personally to be tempted to trade the swing, but definitely not what I thought was going to happen when I posted the above.

I'm planning to run a test on a a MACD combination strategy, to see if the intuition that I (and many others, as far as I know) have about matching momentum across several time scales is actually correct and profitable.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Everybody on vacation or not interested in TA anymore?

I think we haven't bottomed up yet in $590s, so far we are more like going down, step by step.

Where do you think it will end? I hope somewhere above $550, although it looks like we are in a short-term bearish phase and even 3d MACD are consistently red across exchanges.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

I agree that it started to look better last couple of hours, although feels like this stalemate can last for weeks if not months. Is it true that the # of btc transactions if falling?

Btw, I am not shorting, I am buying at the dips, believing that we are going up *sometime*, although would not be surprised if it would take months. On the other hand, I do not think we can go down much lower, $450 would be absolute bottom, but I do not think it happen, bottom somewhere in $5xxs much more likely. The bigger problem seems to be lack of enthusiasms and buyers for new rally. Let's hope ETF etc will take care of it.

[oda.krell]

Interesting observation, MAbtc. Thanks.

To answer an earlier question: myself, I'm on vacation currently, and, yes, I personally do notice a bit of "analysis fatigue".

That said, I am watching, peripherally, if selling pressure is substantially increasing to the point where the current price level 500s to 600s breaks down , but I don't see that happening so far. In absence of that, I am watching the development through the fibonnacci lense I posted about a few pages ago. From that perspective, we're still on course for leaving the 2013/14 bear market behind.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

we're still on course for leaving the 2013/14 bear market behind.

I hope so, too, although last developments are not for those faint of heart .

Strangely, according to their webpage, Bitfinex longs are still almost unchanged at 30M. Would be nice to get it over with with a flash crash or at least consistent decline over couple weeks.