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[FreshForex]

Crazy surge: indices and crypto at new highs!

In recent days, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a surge in interest following Donald Trump’s election, as he aims to make the United States a global crypto industry leader. His plans to dismiss Gary Gensler, the Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) known for his stringent digital asset regulations, have had a noticeable impact on the market. As a result of this news, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit a new record, temporarily reaching $89,600.

At the same time, U.S. indices staged an impressive rally, breaking records: the S&P 500 (#SP500) surged 4.66% over the week, crossing the $6,000 mark, while the Dow Jones Index (#DJI30) jumped 5.23% at its peak, exceeding $44,300!

Investor optimism is tied to a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed, as inflation approaches the target rate of 2% (2.4% in September), along with expectations of corporate tax reductions and regulatory easing under President Donald Trump. Several factors are aligning for further growth across the American market:[/li][/list]

• Financial services sector: U.S. bank stocks are rising with Trump’s victory, as his promises to reduce inflationary pressures and provide tax benefits are already yielding results. Shares of major banks have shown growth of 10% to 13%! Among the top gainers: Goldman Sachs (#GoldmanSac), Bank of America (#BankAmer), Morgan Stanley (#MorganStan), and JPMorgan (#JPMorgan). All are available in our trading terminal!

• Support from the Fed: On Thursday, the Central Bank cut interest rates by a quarter-point. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted in a press conference that the U.S. economy “is in good shape.” As reported by CNBC, investors generally see a Republican-controlled government as more favorable.

• Trump rally: The SP500 and DJI30 posted their best week since November 2023. Several Trump-related stocks have once again shown solid performance. Tesla (#Tesla), whose CEO Elon Musk was involved in the newly elected president’s campaign, rose by 8.2%, marking four consecutive positive sessions.

• Analyst predictions: The Republican victory has pushed U.S. Treasury yields to a four-month high of 4.5%, while bank and tech stocks are climbing. Major analytical agencies are confident that, following reforms by the current U.S. president, the market will gain even more momentum. FreshForex analysts have repeatedly forecasted the rise of indices and cryptocurrencies and remain confident in the upcoming growth of the entire U.S. market!

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for 13 November 2024 USDJPY

Events to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

USDJPY:

The Japanese yen (JPY) hit a new low since July 30 against its US counterpart during Wednesday's Asian session, although it managed to defend the psychological 155.00 mark. Despite a rise in Japanese producer prices in October, investors seem convinced that an unstable minority government in Japan could make it difficult for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates further. In addition, concerns that tariffs promised by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump could significantly impact Japanese exports proved to be a key factor undermining the yen.

In addition, expectations that Trump's inflationary import tariffs could limit the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to cut interest rates continue to support elevated US bond yields. This further exacerbates the low-yielding Yen, which, along with the bullish US Dollar (USD), acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the recent drop in JPY raises the possibility of intervention from the Japanese authorities. This could deter JPY bears from making new bets ahead of the release of US consumer inflation data later this Wednesday.

Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Buy orders from the current price level.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for 14 November 2024 GBPUSD

Events to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

22:00 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD extends its decline to 1.2685 in Asian trading hours on Thursday. The US dollar (USD) rally to the highest level since November 2023 is putting pressure on the major pair. Later on Thursday, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech.

Data released by the US Department of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched expectations, rising 2.6% year-on-year in October. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories, rose 3.3% y/y in October, matching the forecast. Markets expect the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue cutting rates at its next meeting in December.

“The Consumer Price Index offered no surprises, so for now the Fed will continue to cut rates in December. However, next year is a different story given the uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and other Trump administration measures,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

Fed officials remain cautious about cutting rates. On Wednesday, Dallas Fed Chairwoman Laurie Logan said the U.S. central bank should be cautious about further interest rate cuts so as not to inadvertently ignite inflation. In addition, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said stagnant inflation figures make it difficult for the U.S. central bank to cut rates further. Traders are raising bets on another quarter percent rate cut in December, albeit at a slower pace, before mid-2025.

Trading recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for 15 November 2024 USDJPY

Events to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales

USDJPY:

The Japanese Yen (JPY) extends its losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) for the fifth consecutive session following the release of Japan's Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Friday. The USD/JPY pair's upside potential is supported by a strong US Dollar (USD). Traders are also preparing for the release of US retail sales data for October, due later on Friday.

Japan's preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) data for the third quarter rose 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter, matching market expectations. On an annualized basis, the country's GDP growth in the third quarter was 0.9%, beating the market consensus forecast of 0.7%, but showing a sharp slowdown from the 2.2% growth recorded in the second quarter.

Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Friday that he will take appropriate measures against excessive currency fluctuations. Kato emphasized the importance of stable exchange rate movements reflecting economic fundamentals and expressed concern about unilateral sharp fluctuations in the market.

Meanwhile, Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said he expects the moderate economic recovery to continue, fueled by rising employment and wages. However, Akazawa also emphasized the need to keep a close eye on potential downside risks to the global economy and volatility in financial and capital markets.

Trade recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for 18 November 2024 EURUSD

EURUSD:

The Euro-dollar pair traded near 1.0550 during Monday's Asian trading session, staying close to the yearly low of 1.0496 reached on November 14. The pair's downside risks intensified after cautious comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and stronger-than-expected US retail sales data, which provided broad support for the US dollar (USD).

Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tempered expectations of an imminent rate cut by emphasizing the resilience of the economy, a strong labor market and continued inflationary pressures. Powell stated, “The economy is not signaling that we need to rush to cut rates.”

The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in a nearly 60 percent probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut at the December meeting. The Euro continues to face downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a dovish stance with a rate cut expected at its upcoming December meeting. Core inflation in the eurozone is projected to fall sharply to 2.4% in 2024 from 5.4% in 2023, before gradually declining to 2.1% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.

The European Commission's fall forecast for 2024 assumes the euro area economy will grow by 0.8% in 2024, unchanged from the spring forecast. However, the growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down slightly to 1.3% from 1.4%, and the eurozone economy is forecast to grow by 1.6% in 2026.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for 19 November 2024 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

UK CPI inflation data will be released mid-week.

GBP/USD rose 0.5% on Monday, kicking off the new trading week with a bullish recovery that ended a six-day losing streak and trimmed recent losses, sending price action back towards 1.2700. The rise in quotes is attributed to a general easing of the US dollar's lopsided momentum rather than the inherent strength of the pound. Pound sterling traders are lurking in anticipation of fresh inflation data (consumer price index) in the UK this week.

The Bank of England (BoE) will warm up the market on Tuesday as the UK central bank is scheduled to hear the latest monetary policy report, but GBP traders will focus on the UK Consumer Price Index for October released on Wednesday. Markets are forecasting that UK annual CPI inflation will accelerate to 2.2% y/y in October from a previous reading of 1.7%, while UK core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 3.2% y/y.

Markets are getting a nice respite from important economic data from the US this week, but traders should keep an eye on Friday's UK retail sales data as well as the S&P Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data due for release to round out the trading week.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Buy orders from the current price level.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for 20 November 2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:

On Tuesday, the Japanese Yen (JPY) demonstrated robust two-way price movements, with minimal fluctuations against its US counterpart by the end of the trading day. Russia's announcement that it will lower the threshold for a nuclear strike has prompted a flight to safety into the Japanese Yen. The global flight to safety resulted in a significant decline in US Treasury bond yields, which further impacted the low-yielding yen. This led to the USD/JPY pair reaching a weekly low of around 153.30-153.25. However, the initial market reaction diminished rather rapidly following comments from Russian and US officials that helped assuage concerns about the potential for a full-scale nuclear war.

Furthermore, the timing of further monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continued to create uncertainty and overshadow the modest weakening of the US dollar (USD). Following the release of Japan's trade balance data, the Yen remains under pressure, with the USD/JPY pair consolidating on the solid intraday recovery of more than 150 pips achieved overnight. Nevertheless, speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene in the FX market to support the local currency, coupled with geopolitical uncertainty, may deter those betting against the Japanese yen and serve as a headwind for the pair.

Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 155.00, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for 21 November 2024 EURUSD

Events to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

EURUSD:

The Euro-dollar pair gained slightly after losses in the previous session, trading around 1.0550 during Asian hours on Thursday. However, the pair's gains may be tempered by safe-haven flows amid escalating geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Reuters reported that Ukraine fired a salvo of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles at Russian territory on Wednesday, marking the latest use of Western weapons against Russian targets. Moscow said the use of Western weapons to strike Russian territory far from the border would significantly escalate the conflict.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said on Wednesday that the eurozone is close to sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target. Stournaras emphasized the responsibility of policymakers to keep inflation from falling below that target, Bloomberg reported.

Meanwhile, the EU Financial Stability Review noted that escalating geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty are increasing the vulnerability of sovereign states, while growing global trade disputes are raising the risk of economic turmoil.

The ECB has cut rates three times since June as inflation approaches the 2% target. However, growth forecasts have been revised downward twice. Markets widely expect a 25 basis point rate cut next month, with a lesser likelihood of a more substantial cut.

The US Dollar (USD) received support from cautious remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. FRB Boston President Susan Collins said on Wednesday that while further interest rate cuts are necessary, policymakers should proceed cautiously to avoid moving too fast or too slow, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0550, if the level is fixed above consider Buy positions, if the level rebounds consider Sell positions.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for 22 November 2024 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

The pound sterling gave up ground on the back of a poor British news calendar. Pound traders are expecting a tight data schedule on Friday.

GBP/USD lost another four-tenths of a percent on Thursday, hitting six-month lows, as underlying weakness in the pound sterling leads the pair further down against the US dollar. Market pressure is building ahead of Friday's key data due for release shortly, capping off this modest week.

Friday will begin with the release of UK retail sales data for October. UK retail sales are expected to have contracted 0.3% m/m compared to September's 0.3%. On a year-on-year basis, UK retail sales growth will decline to 3.4% y/y from the previous figure of 3.9%.

Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) business activity figures will be released on Friday on a rolling basis, with PMI data to be released on both sides of the Atlantic. The UK Manufacturing PMI for November is expected to be unchanged at 49.9, just below contraction, while the UK Services PMI is forecast to rise to 52.1 from 52.0.

Median market forecasts for the U.S. portion of Friday's PMI release schedule suggest a general increase in activity expectations, with the November U.S. manufacturing PMI expected to rise to 48.8 from 48.5. The services PMI component of the PMI will also increase to 55.3 from 55.0.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2570, when fixing above it consider Buy positions, when rebounding consider Sell positions.

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[FreshForex]

SHOCKING! 40% tariffs on Chinese imports!

According to a survey of economists by Reuters, the U.S. is considering imposing nearly 40% tariffs on Chinese imports early next year. Such measures could slow the growth of the world’s second-largest economy by 1%. Economists polled by the publication, both Democrats and Republicans, believe these changes will trigger massive disruptions in the U.S. and global economies, surpassing the impact of the trade wars during Trump’s first term. They warn this could ignite a “global trade war.”

During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump promised significant tariffs on Chinese goods as part of his “America First” trade policy. These potential tariffs, much higher than the 7.5%-25% rates of his first term, come at a vulnerable time for China’s economy, which is grappling with a prolonged real estate slump, debt risks, and weak domestic demand. Most economists predict Trump will impose the tariffs in early 2025, with an average estimate of 38% and projections ranging from 15% to 60%. These tariffs are expected to reduce China’s economic growth in 2025 by about 0.5-1.0 percentage points.

What could Trump’s policy lead to?

• Chinese indexes: Chinese stock indexes like #ChinaA50 and the Hang Seng Index (#HSI) are expected to face downward pressure.

• Chinese corporations: ey sectors such as electronics, automotive, and textiles—heavily reliant on exports to the U.S.—are likely to suffer the most. Major Chinese corporations, including #Alibaba and other leading players, could see their stock values decline.

• U.S. Indexes: American indexes like #SP500 and Dow Jones (#DJI30) might experience short-term volatility. Tariffs will raise costs for U.S. companies dependent on Chinese supplies, such as those in tech, automotive, and consumer goods sectors—companies like #Apple, #Tesla, and #Nike may face increased production costs. This could reduce profitability and potentially lead to stock corrections.

In the long term, however, the U.S. might benefit from the trade war, as it could boost domestic production, positively impacting American manufacturing stocks. FreshForex analysts predict a growth phase to begin in late Q1 2025. At the same time, on November 14, investors sharply increased short positions in Asian currencies following Trump’s tariff announcements.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for 25 November 2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:

Lower U.S. bond yields are driving profit taking in the dollar and favoring the yen.The U.S. dollar, which has risen for eight consecutive weeks, is retreating from its highest level since November 2022 as traders opt to lock in profits after an explosive rally following the U.S. election.

Despite stronger Japanese consumer inflation data and statements from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, domestic political uncertainty may prevent the BOJ from tightening monetary policy.

The Japanese yen (JPY) is strengthening against its U.S. counterpart at the start of the new week. US Treasury bond yields fell sharply in response to the nomination of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary. This, in turn, prompted traders to ease their bullish bets on the US Dollar (USD) after its recent rally to a two-year high and directed some flows towards the lower-yielding JPY.

Nevertheless, uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate hike plans, along with the prevalence of risk, could prevent any meaningful appreciation in the safe-haven JPY. In addition, expectations that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies could lead to a resurgence in inflation and limit the Federal Reserve (Fed) from slowly cutting interest rates could be a tailwind for US bond yields. This, in turn, favors dollar bulls and should provide support to the USD/JPY pair.

Trade recommendation: Trading mainly with Buy orders from the current price level.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for 26 November 2024 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes

EURUSD:

On Monday, the EUR/USD attempted to consolidate higher levels, retracing back to 1.0500 amid weaker greenback trading in the broad market as investors returned to risk-on sentiment, albeit with limited effect. Please be aware that overall market flows will be limited this week. This is due to the second half of the weekly sessions in the US market being affected by the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and limited market hours on Friday.

The majority of EU data releases are expected to be relatively sparse this week, with the exception of a new round of European Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation data, scheduled for release on Friday. Preliminary EU HICP inflation data for November is expected to show an increase on a year-on-year basis, a trend that European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are seeking to counteract. According to ECB officials, the near-term rise in broad EU inflation figures should not be a cause for concern for investors.

The minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be released later on Tuesday, providing insight for traders on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) deliberations on the direction of interest rates going forward. On Wednesday, another update to the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI) will be released, which is a key indicator of price growth in the US economy. On Wednesday, the latest figures for US gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be released. The annual core PCEPI inflation rate is forecast to rise from 2.7% to 2.8% in October. US GDP growth in the third quarter is expected to remain at 2.8% quarter-on-quarter.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.0500, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for 27 November 2024 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

GBPUSD:

The Pound-Dollar pair is trading on a stronger note near 1.2570 on Wednesday in the early European session. The Pound Sterling (GBP) is strengthening despite US President-elect Donald Trump announcing new tariff measures. Traders are awaiting the release of October's Core PCE (US Personal Consumption Expenditure) price index to give it a fresh boost.

Early Tuesday, Donald Trump promised to impose tariffs on all goods imported into the US from Canada, Mexico and China, which led to the dollar's rally against the pound sterling in the previous session. The dollar's rally will pause on Wednesday as traders await US core PCE inflation data for more information on the outlook for interest rates. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of currencies, is currently trading near the lower end of its weekly range around 106.85.

Most Bank of England (BoE) policymakers support a gradual approach to policy easing. Bank of England Deputy Governor Claire Lombardelli said on Tuesday that she needed to see more evidence of cooling price pressures before she would support another interest rate cut. The betting that the UK central bank will cut interest rates next month is providing some support for the British pound at the moment.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2550, if consolidated below consider Sell positions, if rebounded consider Buy positions.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for 28 November 2024 USDJPY

USDJPY:

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is slightly lower against its US counterpart during the Asian session and erodes some of the recent strong gains to a five-week high reached the previous day. In the absence of a fresh fundamental catalyst, the JPY's intraday decline is likely to remain limited amid speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates again in December. Additionally, tariff threats from US President-elect Donald Trump and geopolitical risks could support the safe-haven JPY.

Expectations that Scott Bessent - Trump's nominee for US Treasury Secretary - will rein in the budget deficit have driven the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yield to levels not seen in a month.

At the same time, traders cut so-called “Trump trades” following the appointment of Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary. Meanwhile, US macroeconomic data released on Wednesday did little to dampen market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points in December. This led to a further decline in US Treasury bond yields, causing the US dollar (USD) to fall to a two-week low and may favor the low-yielding yen ahead of the release of inflation data in Tokyo on Friday.

Trading recommendation: Trading mainly with Buy orders from the current price level.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for 29 November 2024 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

12:00 EET. EUR - Consumer Price Index - Core

EURUSD:

On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair moved just below 1.0600 on the chart, indicating a lack of further expansion in the recent bullish recovery, as well as a lack of decline in value. Market volumes were limited on Thursday due to the closure of US markets for the Thanksgiving holiday. Furthermore, liquidity in the US session will be constrained on Friday as the trading week draws to a close.

The release of fresh EU inflation data on Friday could provide a boost to the euro ahead of the weekend, although there has been little reason for fibre traders to rally EUR/USD recently. The key indicators for fibre will be the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation data. Core HICP inflation is forecast to rise to 2.8% y/y in November, up from a previous reading of 2.7%. This will have an impact on the work of several European Central Bank (ECB) officials who have been communicating with the newswires this week to reassure investors of further rate cuts in December and throughout 2025.

In terms of the US dollar, the key indicator to watch next Friday will be the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for 6 December. Next week's NFP will assume greater significance for traders, given the recent shift in focus away from anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, a notable shift in the NFP numbers could have a significant impact on Treasury rates, prompting new considerations about the optimal number of rate cuts in 2025.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.0600, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for 2 December 2024 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI

GBPUSD:

Amid ongoing geopolitical risks, fears of a second wave of trade war after US President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January are driving some asset flows towards the US Dollar and putting pressure on GBP/USD. Indeed, Trump has threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on the so-called BRICS countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - if they replace the US dollar with another currency for international transactions.

Trump has also promised big tariffs against America's three biggest trading partners - Mexico, Canada and China. This could push up consumer prices and set the stage for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to stop cutting interest rates or possibly raise them again. In addition, the cautious market sentiment is proving to be another factor helping the buck recover some of last week's heavy losses to its lowest level since Nov. 12.

Traders may also refrain from aggressive directional bets ahead of the release of important macroeconomic data from the US scheduled for the beginning of the new month, starting with the ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday. However, the market's main focus will be on the all-important monthly US employment data, known as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will be released on Friday. It may provide clues as to the path of the Fed rate cut and influence the price dynamics of the dollar.

Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2750, trading mainly with Sell orders

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for 3 December 2024 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - JOLTs Job Openings

USDJPY:

The Japanese yen is attracting some market action on Tuesday but lacks support.

Rising bets on another Bank of Japan rate hike in December are helping to limit the yen's decline.

Geopolitical risks, Trump's tariff threats and lower U.S. bond yields favor the yen bulls.

The Japanese yen (JPY) is declining against its U.S. counterpart during Tuesday's Asian session and is shifting the USD/JPY pair away from its lowest level since October 16, reached the previous day. However, speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates again in December should limit the yen's significant decline. In addition, threats of trade tariffs by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, as well as ongoing geopolitical risks, could support the yen.

Meanwhile, the recent decline in US Treasury yields has not helped the dollar to strengthen after an overnight rebound from multi-month lows and could further support the low-yielding yen. This, in turn, calls for some caution before making aggressive bullish bets on the USD/JPY pair. In addition, traders may prefer to wait for additional signals that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be cutting rates.

Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 149.30, trading mainly with Buy orders

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for 4 December 2024 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services PMI

EURUSD:

EUR/USD declined again on Tuesday, clinging to 1.0500, while the pair failed to realize a bullish attempt at 1.0600. There are a few EU-centric data releases on Wednesday, but most of them are final data that are unlikely to move markets, with most investors turning their attention to the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data later in the week.

Early Wednesday will see the final European Union Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for November, but the figures are expected to be unchanged. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will also appear at the European Parliament where she will testify before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. It is unlikely that the ECB will make any market-important announcements after the question period.

Wednesday will see the release of the US non-farm employment change data from ADP, which is expected to fall to 150k from the previous reading of 233k. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from ISM will also hit investors on Wednesday during the US trading session. The US services PMI survey is expected to fall to 55.5 in November from 56.0 in the previous month.

Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0500, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for 5 December 2024 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair traded with a slight positive bias for the third consecutive day and held just above the 1.2700 mark during the Asian session on Thursday. However, spot prices lack bullish confidence and remain below the weekly high reached on Monday.

The US Dollar (USD) continues to consolidate sideways as traders prefer to take a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair.

Investors are convinced that US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans and expansive policies will boost inflation.

In addition, persistent geopolitical risks associated with the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and trade war fears are supporting the safe-haven dollar.

Traders are now eagerly awaiting the release of the UK construction PMI to give it a boost ahead of the usual weekly initial jobless claims data from the US, which will be released later in the early North American session. However, the immediate market reaction is likely to be limited.

Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2740, when fixing above consider Buy positions, when rebounding consider Sell positions.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for 6 December 2024 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

USDJPY:

The Japanese yen continues to consolidate price movement amid fluctuating expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike.

A softer tone of risk sentiment, trade war fears and geopolitical risks may support the safe-haven Japanese Yen.

Moderate dollar growth could be a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair ahead of the US NFP report.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) cannot consolidate the previous day's modest gains and fluctuated in a narrow range against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Friday. At the same time, the near-term trends are leaning in favor of the yen bulls amid the Bank of Japan (BoJ) taking a tougher stance. In fact, the BoJ continues to raise interest rates while other major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), continue to lower borrowing costs.

In addition, a slight deterioration in global risk sentiment, ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade war fears continue to support the safe-haven yen. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US Treasury bond yields has kept the dollar (USD) near multi-week lows and further supported the yen. Nevertheless, traders prefer to wait for the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report to get signals on the prospects of a Fed rate cut before making new directional bets on the USD/JPY pair.

Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 150.00, trading mainly with Buy orders.

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