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Market Fundamental Analysis for January 26, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Change in orders for durable goods

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is slipping and holding near 154.00 as the yen strengthens sharply. The market is reacting to growing discussion of possible joint action by the US and Japan to restrain yen weakness: reports about US officials reviewing USD/JPY pricing have increased market caution and accelerated the unwinding of yen short positions.

In Japan, the domestic backdrop remains supportive for a stronger currency. Inflation is still noticeable, and the market expects the Bank of Japan to continue adjusting policy gradually, narrowing the yield gap between Japan and the US. The yen also benefits from renewed demand during periods of heightened uncertainty and global market swings.

On the US side, risks for the dollar include the upcoming Fed meeting and political headlines around financial authorities. If the Fed’s message is softer than expected and the market strengthens its view of further rate cuts in 2026, pressure on USD/JPY may persist. With Japanese authorities seen as more ready to step in if needed, the pair remains vulnerable to fresh downward moves.

Trading recommendation: SELL 154.05, SL 154.85, TP 151.65

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Weekly review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 30 January 2026​

XAUUSD: BUY 5095.50, SL 5045.50, TP 5245.50​

Gold enters the week at all-time highs: XAUUSD is holding near $5 095.45 per ounce and is testing the area above $5 100. Demand is fueled by geopolitical and trade risks, as well as a softer dollar. Additional support comes from central-bank buying and inflows into gold-backed funds; physical bar purchases are also increasing.

The key driver this week is the Federal Reserve meeting on January 27–28. A rate pause is widely expected, but comments about the next steps and the inflation outlook can quickly shift sentiment and the dollar. While uncertainty remains, interest in safe-haven assets stays strong, and pullbacks are often bought.

Trading recommendation: BUY 5095.50, SL 5045.50, TP 5245.50

#SP500: BUY 6916, SL 6840, TP 7144​

The S&P 500 starts the week around 6 916 points amid high sensitivity to U.S. news. Investors are watching the Fed decision on January 28 and a series of major corporate reports that shape expectations for profits. If management guidance confirms steady demand and investment activity, the index may keep a positive tone.

Risks for the market include potentially stricter signals from the Fed about the pace of inflation improvement and political statements on tariffs that raise uncertainty for businesses. Economic data and bond yields will also matter: a rise in yields often cools interest in equities. If the week is calm, demand for risk assets may recover.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6916, SL 6840, TP 7144

#BRENT: SELL 65.00, SL 66.30, TP 61.10​

Brent is trading near $65.01 per barrel: prices are supported by U.S. production disruptions from winter storms and tensions around the Middle East. However, gains are capped by expectations of higher supply in 2026 and cautious demand estimates, so the market reacts sharply to news on inventories and shipments.

This week, focus is on U.S. oil stock statistics and signals from OPEC+ ahead of upcoming quota discussions. If reports confirm rising inventories or producers show readiness to increase output, pressure on Brent will intensify. The Fed decision also matters: a stronger dollar after the meeting often weighs on commodities and supports a scenario of moderate price declines.

Trading recommendation: SELL 65.00, SL 66.30, TP 61.10

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[FreshForex]

Gold (XAUUSD) Breaks Above $5,400

On January 21, FreshForex analysts had already pointed to a potential rise in gold. On January 28, 2026, gold (XAUUSD) confidently cleared another milestone for the first time, breaking above $5,400 per ounce and setting fresh all-time highs amid strong demand for safe-haven assets. The rally continued on January 29, with prices approaching  $5,600, underscoring that the market is not treating this move as a one-off spike, but rather as a repricing of global “risk costs.” Demand for defensive assets is back in the spotlight, and in this environment the “yellow metal” often becomes the simple, widely understood refuge that capital flows into when confidence in the near future fades.

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5 drivers behind gold’s further upside:

• Geopolitical tensions and escalation risk: Any intensification of conflicts, sanctions pressure, or threats of crises expanding typically increases demand for gold as a universal safe-haven asset. The higher the uncertainty, the larger the “safety premium” embedded in the metal’s price
• The U.S. dollar trend and confidence in fiat currencies: When the dollar weakens, gold often finds support—it becomes more affordable for buyers in other currency zones and serves as a way to preserve purchasing power during FX volatility
• Interest-rate and inflation expectations: What matters for gold is real financing conditions—the relationship between rates and inflation. If markets expect easier monetary policy or persistently high inflation, gold tends to look more attractive because the alternative yield on conservative instruments appears less compelling
• Fundamental risks: debt, deficits, fiscal sustainability: Rising debt burdens and growing discussion of fiscal risks increase demand for assets that are not tied to government or financial-sector liabilities. In such periods, gold is often perceived as “insurance” against systemic imbalances
• Structural demand from central banks: When central banks increase gold’s share in reserves, it creates a more stable base of demand. This factor often softens pullbacks and supports the broader trend, especially amid geopolitical and currency risks

The break above $5,400 strengthened the bullish narrative for XAUUSD—markets are pricing in a higher geopolitical premium and deeper fundamental risks (currency, debt, and interest-rate policy). As long as geopolitical risks persist, rate uncertainty remains elevated, and questions linger over the debt sustainability of major economies, gold may stay among the priority instruments for diversification and capital protection. And once again, we remind you: read high-quality analysis from FreshForex and earn!

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[FreshForex]

Weekly outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT |6 February 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 4630.60, SL 4625.60, TP 5080.60

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Gold starts the week after a sell-off: higher margin requirements on the exchange and a stronger US dollar prompted some players to close positions. XAUUSD is around 4630.60 per ounce; analysts link the pressure to strong US data and news related to the Fed’s leadership.

The focus is on US statistics and the regulator’s comments; meanwhile, the January employment report may be postponed due to a partial government shutdown. Central bank buying and forecasts from a number of banks for gold in 2026 support interest in buying dips.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4630.60, SL 4625.60, TP 5080.60

#SP500: BUY 6988, SL 6978, TP 7288

The S&P 500 starts the week at record levels: the index is around 6,988 points thanks to strong earnings expectations and demand for companies linked to artificial intelligence. Improving US manufacturing activity also provides support.

Key events include major tech companies’ reports and budget headlines: the US Congress is discussing ending the partial government shutdown, which could delay the January employment report. In a calm environment, the rally may continue, but surprises could quickly increase volatility.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6988, SL 6978, TP 7288

#BRENT: SELL 66.30, SL 66.80, TP 60.00

Brent remains under pressure, trading around 66.30 per barrel after signals that US–Iran talks may resume, easing concerns about supply disruptions. A stronger US dollar is also weighing on commodities.

This week, the market will assess the supply-and-demand balance: news reports note that OPEC+ has decided not to change production levels at least until March. If tensions do not intensify and expectations of rising inventories are confirmed, pressure on prices may persist.

Trading recommendation: SELL 66.30, SL 66.80, TP 60.00

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for February 4, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD – ADP Employment Change

EURUSD:

On Wednesday, February 4, EUR/USD is holding near 1.1820 after a strong euro rally in January, but demand for the dollar is increasing. The market is reassessing U.S. interest-rate expectations: amid news surrounding the leadership of the Federal Reserve, participants have become more cautious about rate-cut forecasts, which supports the dollar.

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In the euro area, the discussion within the European Central Bank is shifting toward the view that an overly strong euro could further slow inflation. This reduces the regulator’s willingness to ease policy quickly and makes the exchange rate more sensitive to weak data on economic activity and consumption.

Next, the focus is on U.S. statistics and Fed comments: resilient employment and demand data strengthen the case for keeping restrictive conditions in place for longer. In this environment, it is harder for the euro to maintain its advantage, so downside pressure on EUR/USD remains a risk for the day.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1820, SL 1.1835, TP 1.1760

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U.S. stocks on the rise: 5 names that could take off

In January, our clients most actively traded #AMD, #Amazon, #GoDaddy, #Tesla, and #Moderna—and these names recorded the highest share of profitable trades. Today’s review focuses on U.S. equities: quarterly earnings, demand for technology, and news about new products are setting the tone for the start of 2026.

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Growth outlook for U.S. stocks in H1 2026:

    #AMD — Rising demand for server solutions for AI workloads → potential revenue acceleration if corporate tech spending remains strong.
    #Amazon — Expansion of cloud services and a stronger advertising segment → profit support even amid uneven retail sales.
    #GoDaddy — Steady demand from small businesses for websites, online stores, and digital services → growth possible through new paid features.
    #Tesla — Strong momentum in the energy segment and plans for new products → shares could gain if sales stabilize.
    #Moderna — The company is refreshing its vaccine portfolio and advancing new developments → upside possible on positive project news.

FreshForex analysts believe that over the coming months these stocks will be driven most by three factors: fresh company earnings, product-related news, and overall global market sentiment. With a constructive backdrop, they see potential for prices to move above current levels—but even in a positive scenario, it’s wise to cap risk on trades in advance.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for February 5, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

14:00 EET. GBP - The decision on the main interest rate of the Bank of England

15:30 EET. USD -The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits

GBPUSD:

The pound is holding near recent highs, but the dollar is strengthening amid a broader move away from risk. Swings in equities and commodities are increasing demand for the dollar, and market participants are reducing positions ahead of key central-bank decisions.

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The main event is the Bank of England decision. Rates are expected to be kept unchanged; however, inflation assessments and comments on how resilient domestic demand remains will be crucial. Any signals on the timing of a potential rate cut could materially shift expectations for returns on UK assets.

If the regulator confirms a cautious approach and does not accelerate discussion of easing, while the Fed maintains tight credit conditions, GBPUSD may move into a corrective pullback. Against this backdrop, selling the pair looks preferable, as the balance of factors tilts toward the dollar; the reaction to headlines from London and Washington may be sharp.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.3650, SL 1.3685, TP 1.3545

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Market Fundamental Analysis for February 6, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1790 on Friday, February 6, 2026, after the U.S. dollar strengthened notably. Investor caution has increased amid softer equities and higher uncertainty, which supports demand for the U.S. currency.

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The Eurozone central bank kept rates unchanged and indicated it remains focused on keeping inflation stable around its target over the medium term. At the same time, January inflation data in the region showed a slowdown to 1.7% year over year, prompting markets to discuss easier financing conditions more actively—an additional headwind for the euro.

Rate expectations still depend heavily on the labor market in the world’s largest economy: some indicators point to cooling, but the key employment report can quickly shift sentiment. If the data proves resilient, the case for keeping rates high strengthens, and EUR/USD may drift lower.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1790, SL 1.1820, TP 1.1700

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Market Fundamental Analysis for February 6, 2026 EURUSD

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is trading near 1.3610 on Monday, February 9, 2026, and remains sensitive to news from the United Kingdom. After the Bank of England decision, the market is reassessing rate prospects, while the dollar periodically finds support amid investor caution and demand for liquidity.

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The Bank of England kept the policy rate at 3.75%, but the 5–4 vote showed growing disagreement within the committee. The regulator points to a cooling economy and an expected slowdown in inflation in the coming months; this increases the likelihood of a rate cut if the trend is confirmed. Political uncertainty also remains a factor for the pound, as it increases the risk premium investors demand for U.K. assets.

In the U.S., inflation and labor-market releases remain the key drivers: strong readings would support expectations of keeping rates high and strengthen the dollar. In that scenario, GBP/USD may continue to decline, especially if expectations of easing by the Bank of England become more entrenched. Against this backdrop, the base case for the day is pressure on the pound and a preference for short positions.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3610, SL 1.3640, TP 1.3520

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Market Fundamental Analysis for February 10, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD – Retail Sales Volume Change

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is trading around 1.37, but price action remains volatile due to political uncertainty in the UK. Changes among key figures around the Prime Minister and talk of possible early decisions are increasing the risk premium, reducing investors’ willingness to hold long positions in the pound.

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The monetary backdrop is also weighing on the British currency: the Bank of England signals that if inflation slows and domestic demand cools, further steps to reduce borrowing costs are possible. Expectations of lower rates make the pound less attractive for yield-focused investors.

On the US side, the dollar looks weaker ahead of the delayed employment and inflation releases, yet these reports can quickly shift rate expectations. If the data are resilient, demand for the dollar may recover and GBP/USD could move lower. In this environment, the base case is to sell the pair, focusing on fundamental risks to the UK economy and politics.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.3690, SL 1.3710, TP 1.3600

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for February 11, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is easing toward the 153.0–153.5 area: Japan is supporting the yen after the election, as investors expect more predictable fiscal policy and stronger interest in Japanese assets. The yen also benefits from increased demand for defensive instruments amid global uncertainty—at such times, some participants reduce exposure to the dollar.

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The US currency has been under pressure recently due to mixed data: retail sales disappointed, while growth in labor costs slowed. This has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will be more cautious about maintaining high rates in 2026, and the market is paying special attention to today’s non-farm payrolls release.

If employment comes in below expectations, the dollar may continue to soften and the yen may strengthen, as the yield gap will be seen as less favorable for the US. Strong data could give the dollar a temporary lift, but the overall backdrop for the yen remains supported by political stabilization and capital inflows into Japanese assets.

Trade recommendation: SELL 153.10, SL 153.65, TP 151.45

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Market Fundamental Analysis for February 12, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

12.02 15:30 EET. USD -  Unemployment Claims

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is holding near 1.1870–1.1880 on Thursday after an attempt to extend gains amid uneven demand for the U.S. dollar. The market remains cautious as rate expectations are being reassessed again, so the pair’s short-term dynamics are driven more by headlines and fresh U.S. data.

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Strong U.S. employment figures released the day before supported the dollar via higher Treasury yields and reduced the probability of an early Federal Reserve rate cut. The main reference point now is U.S. inflation: the release is scheduled for Friday, and any deviation from expectations can quickly change the market’s view of the rate path and dollar demand.

In Europe, the backdrop is steadier: at its latest meeting, the ECB kept rates unchanged, while the preliminary Eurozone inflation estimate showed a slowdown to 1.7% year over year. With this mix of factors, the euro has fewer reasons to accelerate, while the dollar is underpinned by yields and attention to U.S. data. The base case for today is moderate pressure on the pair if dollar demand strengthens.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1880, SL 1.1910, TP 1.1790

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Market Fundamental Analysis for February 13, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD – Consumer Price Index (CPI)

15:30 EET. USD – Core Consumer Price Index (CPI excluding food and energy)

GBPUSD:

On Friday, February 13, GBP/USD is holding around 1.3620, and price action remains “dollar-dependent”: market participants are waiting for U.S. inflation data and assessing how long the U.S. regulator’s rate will stay at current levels. Against the backdrop of the upcoming release, volatility can spike sharply, and short-term moves are often amplified by thinner liquidity.

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The U.K. picture looks mixed. At its February meeting, the Bank of England kept the rate at 3.75% with a close 5–4 vote, and some members have already argued for a cut, which increases the likelihood of easing in spring. Another factor is the weak end to 2025: according to the statistical office’s first estimate, the economy grew by only 0.1% in the fourth quarter, while business investment activity declined.

In this environment, it is harder for the pound to sustain gains—especially if U.S. inflation proves resilient and the market brings back demand for the dollar as a defensive instrument. Even with neutral U.S. data, investors may prefer a currency with a steadier path of rate expectations, while in the U.K. the debate about rate cuts is becoming increasingly visible.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3620, SL 1.3650, TP 1.3530

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Market Fundamental Analysis for February 16, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:

The euro against the dollar is starting the week without a clear impulse, and the key driver is a reassessment of rate expectations in the United States. The market is factoring in both the recent labor-market data and personnel news around the future leadership of the Federal Reserve, which helps keep demand for the dollar steady and increases the pair’s sensitivity to any surprises in US releases.

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In the Eurozone, the situation is calmer: the European Central Bank is holding a pause, while inflation is clearly below 2%, so investors are not rushing to price in higher euro yields. Improved risk sentiment across the region supports the currency, but without acceleration in growth and price pressures, it is harder for the euro to strengthen sustainably against the dollar.

For today, the base scenario is moderate pressure on EURUSD as demand for the dollar returns on the back of US headlines and data. In that logic, selling from current levels looks preferable, with a protective stop and a target in the area of lower prices.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1875, SL 1.1900, TP 1.1800

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Weekly outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT |20 February 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 5000.00, SL 4985.00, TP 5045.00​

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Gold starts the week near $5,000 per ounce. The market is supported by expectations of lower US interest rates after softer inflation data, as well as steady demand from major buyers, including central banks and China.

Limiting factors include a potential rebound in the US dollar and profit-taking after sharp moves. Still, if global political uncertainty persists and US Treasury yields ease further, demand for gold may remain firm.

Trading recommendation: BUY 5000.00, SL 4985.00, TP 5045.00



​

#SP500: BUY 6840, SL 6810, TP 6930​

The #SP500 is holding near 6,836 points. Expectations of policy easing by the Federal Reserve later in 2026 are reducing rate pressure and supporting demand for equities. Investors are watching US macro releases and major corporate earnings, which are likely to set the tone for the week.

Risks include weaker consumption data or unexpected signals from the Fed, which could raise investor caution and trigger short-term selling. The baseline backdrop remains supportive if yields continue to decline and earnings confirm resilient profit growth.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6840, SL 6810, TP 6930



​ ​

#BRENT: SELL 67.80, SL 68.60, TP 65.40​

Brent crude starts the week around $67.8 per barrel. The market is weighing US–Iran talks and the possibility of higher supply, alongside fresh assessments pointing to slower global demand growth. These factors are limiting the upside.

Additional pressure comes from expectations that OPEC+ may resume increasing output and from US inventory data. Geopolitical headlines can still cause brief spikes, but the base case for the week is a moderate decline unless new supply disruptions emerge.

Trading recommendation: SELL 67.80, SL 68.60, TP 65.40

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[FreshForex]

Reminder: Activate SWAP50 before the end of February

Hello,

This is a reminder that you can reduce your swap costs with the SWAP50 promo code.

Please note an important detail:

HURRY UP! Compensation is calculated from the date of activation (deposit + providing the promo code via live chat with Support) until the end of February — not for the full month.

The earlier you activate, the more you can receive back.


Calculation example:

If your negative swap for the period from February 16 to February 28 totals –$143.41, +$71.71 will be credited to your BALANCE.


How to participate:

1. Deposit $500 or more in February.
2. Activate the SWAP50 promo code via live chat with Support.
3. Trade as usual — 50% of the negative swap will be credited back to your balance on all accounts.

The offer is valid until the end of February. Do not delay activation.

Compensation will not be credited if, after activating the promo code and up to and including February 28, 2026, a withdrawal request is submitted in the Client Area.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for February 17, 2026 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is fluctuating near 1.3610 and remains sensitive to rate expectations in the UK and the US. Markets are still cautious: a block of UK data on the labor market and inflation is ahead, which could change how quickly price pressures are seen to be easing. For the dollar, the focus is on the Fed minutes and US activity data — their tone will shape overall demand for the US currency.

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The Bank of England kept its policy rate at 3.75% in February with a close voting split, increasing attention to the regulator’s next steps. Economist surveys allow for a rate cut as early as March, but the pace thereafter will depend on how steadily inflation and wage growth slow. Weak data would raise the likelihood of easing and add pressure on the pound.

Domestic factors also remain relevant: lower political tension supports the pound, but sensitivity to headlines persists. In the near term, the base case is moderate dollar support on expectations around US releases. Under these conditions, GBP/USD may drift lower if UK data do not improve the outlook for the economy.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3610, SL 1.3660, TP 1.3460

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for February 18, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

18.02 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is holding around 153.5, but fundamental factors in favor of the yen have strengthened after the release of strong Japanese export data: external demand supported trade performance, increasing interest in the Japanese currency. At the time of writing, the pair is fluctuating in the 153.1–153.7 area, while the market is assessing how durable this macro support will be.

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Stronger exports and improvement in selected business-confidence indicators increase the probability that the Bank of Japan will continue a cautious normalization of monetary conditions. Even without abrupt moves, the prospect of a gradual shift toward higher rates supports the yen’s appeal and can cap USD/JPY, especially if expectations for rate cuts in the US intensify again.

Another key driver today is the Fed meeting minutes. If the market sees grounds in the text for earlier policy easing in the US, the dollar may weaken while the yen strengthens. Overall, the combination of solid Japanese external trade data and heightened focus on Fed signals creates conditions for USD/JPY to drift lower in the coming sessions.

Trading recommendation: SELL 153.50, SL 154.00, TP 152.00

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