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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for February 19, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

19.02 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is trading near 1.18 and remains under pressure from the US dollar after the release of the Fed meeting minutes. Investors concluded that the Federal Reserve is not rushing to cut rates until inflation shows more consistent moderation. Against this backdrop, US Treasury yields stay elevated, and demand for the dollar tends to increase during periods of higher uncertainty.

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An additional support for the dollar comes from a reassessment of US rate expectations: the market is pricing a more cautious path of monetary easing. The longer rates remain high, the more attractive dollar-denominated instruments look, which limits the upside potential for the pair.

On the eurozone side, attention is focused on expectations for the European Central Bank. Market participants see risks of looser conditions ahead amid uneven economic momentum and cooling inflation. As a result, the fundamental balance tilts in favor of the dollar, and if the current Fed signals persist, pressure on EUR/USD may continue.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1800, SL 1.1825, TP 1.1725

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[FreshForex]

Top 5 indices of 2026: Where is the main action right now?

Today’s review focuses on the index market. Since the beginning of 2026, our clients have most actively traded #NQ100, #DAX30, #SP500, #DJI30, and #NIKKEI — and these instruments have recorded the highest trading volumes.

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Outlook for the coming months:

• #NQ100 — driven by major technology companies → the index may rise on strong earnings and forecasts, and decline if economic or rate expectations deteriorate.
  
• #SP500 — reflects the overall condition of the U.S. market → potential support comes from a stable economy and solid corporate performance, while increased uncertainty may create downside pressure.
• #DJI30 — includes the most prominent large-cap U.S. companies → movements tend to be smoother, with key drivers being economic data and business activity news.
  
• #DAX30 — depends on the state of the European economy and export-oriented sectors → growth is likely with improving demand and stable energy prices, while weak European data may weigh on the index.
  
• #NIKKEI — highly sensitive to the yen exchange rate and news from Japanese corporations → the index gains support with a stable yen and strong earnings, while sharp currency fluctuations may intensify negative sentiment.

FreshForex analysts believe that in the coming months the market will be shaped by three main factors: monetary policy decisions of major central banks, the quality of corporate earnings reports, and the overall level of global tension. Even under a positive scenario, it is essential to manage risk in advance, as sharp moves most often occur during news releases.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for February 20, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

20.02 15:30 EET. USD - Gross Domestic Product

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is holding around 1.344–1.347, but fundamentally the pound looks weaker than the dollar. The main reason is expectations that the Bank of England may continue easing credit conditions if inflation and the labor market keep cooling. For the currency, this means lower appeal of UK assets and more cautious demand for the pound.

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At the same time, the dollar is supported by expectations that the Fed will act carefully and will not hurry to change rates. In such conditions, demand for the dollar typically strengthens, especially if investors see risks to the global economy or simply reduce exposure to riskier positions. As a result, the pound struggles to maintain gains even when local news is positive.

In the coming months, the pair’s direction will depend on two things: how convincingly inflation cools in the UK and how quickly the market starts pricing US rate cuts again. For now, the balance still favors the dollar, and GBP/USD remains prone to moving lower, especially on days of key macro releases and central-bank communication.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3445, SL 1.3475, TP 1.3355

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for February 23, 2026 USDJPY

USDJPY:

USD/JPY starts the week near 154.5, while the yen is getting support as attention to potential official actions increases: market participants are again discussing Tokyo’s readiness to respond to excessive exchange-rate swings, and reports of US “rate checks” have made the pair more sensitive to headlines.

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Fundamentally, the balance is shifting due to expectations that the Bank of Japan may continue raising rates as early as spring if the yen weakens again and feeds into import inflation. Even cautious comments along these lines narrow the yield gap between Japan and the US and increase the appeal of the Japanese currency.

On the dollar side, political and trade risks add pressure: the US court ruling on tariffs and subsequent statements about new duties raise uncertainty for global trade and can worsen investor sentiment. At the same time, inflation in the US remains elevated, but slower economic growth forces the market to assess the rate outlook more carefully. Taken together, this creates conditions for USD/JPY to decline.

Trading recommendation: SELL 154.50, SL 154.70, TP 153.60

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[FreshForex]

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 27 February 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 5158.29, SL 5148.00, TP 5249.00

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Gold starts the week supported by stronger demand for safe-haven assets: uncertainty around new U.S. tariffs and a weaker dollar are keeping prices near $5,160 per ounce.

This week’s focus is on the Fed’s rate signals, fresh U.S. data, and how Washington’s trade decisions develop. Any rise in geopolitical tensions could boost demand, but if inflation accelerates, interest in gold may cool temporarily.

Trading recommendation: BUY 5158.29, SL 5148.00, TP 5249.00

 

#SP500: SELL 6874, SL 6885, TP 6755

S&P 500 futures enter the week under pressure as the market reassesses the impact of new U.S. import tariffs and waits for clearer direction on trade policy following the Supreme Court decision.

Key drivers in the coming days are major corporate earnings and U.S. demand-related macro data, which will show whether the economy can absorb higher costs. If uncertainty lingers, investors may reduce risk even if corporate profits remain strong.

Trading recommendation: SELL 6874, SL 6885, TP 6755

 

#BRENT: SELL 70.89, SL 71.30, TP 67.26

Brent is holding around $71 per barrel, but the week starts in “cautious” mode: renewed U.S.–Iran talks are easing supply-disruption fears, while tariff headlines are weighing on expectations for global demand.

Supply conditions remain tight due to sanctions and regional risks, yet banks are increasingly pointing to a potential surplus in 2026 and a likely OPEC+ output increase in the second quarter. That could limit upside unless new shocks emerge.

Trading recommendation: SELL 70.89, SL 71.30, TP 67.26

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for February 24, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - Consumer Confidence Indicator

EURUSD:

On Tuesday, February 24, the euro is holding near 1.177–1.179 against the dollar amid uncertainty around U.S. trade policy. After the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and new statements from Washington, the market is reassessing the risk of broader duties and weaker global trade, which limits the dollar’s upside.

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At the same time, the dollar continues to find support from the inflation backdrop: U.S. price growth remains elevated, and the Federal Reserve is not expected to rush into rate cuts. Today’s remarks from Fed officials and consumer confidence data matter—softer demand signals could increase pressure on the dollar and support the euro.

In the euro area, the European Central Bank is maintaining a wait-and-see stance, viewing current rates as appropriate and inflation as close to target, so sharp moves are not expected. Another factor is EU–U.S. trade dialogue: the pause in progress adds nervousness, but the short-term focus is on U.S. data and Fed messaging. Volatility may increase during the session.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1780, SL 1.1750, TP 1.1870

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[FreshForex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for February 25, 2026 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

On February 25, 2026, GBP/USD is trading around 1.351–1.352, but the pound is under pressure as markets price in potential policy easing from the Bank of England. Investors are increasingly factoring in the probability of rate cuts in coming months amid signs of cooling activity: softer labor market conditions and slower income growth reduce the resilience of domestic demand and increase sensitivity to borrowing costs.

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The UK inflation picture has also become less supportive for sterling. As headline inflation eases, the need to keep rates high for an extended period diminishes. In this context, market participants closely monitor guidance from the Bank of England and how confidently it evaluates the balance between inflation risks and the risk of a slowdown. Political uncertainty can further amplify caution toward UK assets and periodically raise the risk premium.

On the US side, the dollar remains supported by expectations that the Fed will keep financial conditions restrictive until inflation convincingly returns toward target. A combination of US inflation and consumer-activity data, along with ongoing discussions around tariffs, sustains demand for the dollar when sentiment deteriorates. With the rate-expectations gap still in place, downside pressure on GBP/USD may remain dominant.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3525, SL 1.3555, TP 1.3435

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[FreshForex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for February 26, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits

USDJPY:

The pair remains near 155.90, while the yen is receiving fundamental support on expectations of a gradual tightening in Bank of Japan policy. Minutes and official comments highlight the importance of sustained wage growth and inflation, as well as the risks of a weak yen, which raises import costs and adds to price pressures.

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Additional interest in the yen tends to emerge during periods of heightened caution in global markets: geopolitical headlines and shifts in risk demand often drive inflows into safe-haven assets. If this dynamic strengthens, pressure on USDJPY can increase even if U.S. yields remain stable.

On the dollar side, support comes from the Fed’s reluctance to ease policy quickly and its focus on inflation and labor-market data. However, if expectations of further steps from the Bank of Japan remain in place and safe-haven flows pick up, the base-case scenario for the coming sessions is a moderate decline in USDJPY.

Trade recommendation: SELL 155.90, SL 156.10, TP 155.10

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[FreshForex]

Indices at record highs: Will the rally continue or is a pullback ahead?

In recent weeks, stock markets have continued to set new records: #ASX200, #ESTX50, #FTSE100 and #NIKKEI225 are holding at or near historic highs. The rally is supported by several factors at once: strong corporate earnings, positive profit expectations, steady demand for major blue-chip companies, and hopes that financial conditions may gradually become less restrictive. Each market also has its own drivers: Europe is supported by banks and industrial stocks, the UK by commodity and global companies, and Japan by foreign capital inflows and strong technology stories.

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Indices at record highs — Key reasons and growth drivers:

    #ASX200: The index has surpassed 9,140. Growth is driven by strong corporate reports and demand for large, “reliable” stocks. Positive sentiment around technology and AI is also providing additional support.
    #ESTX50: The index has exceeded 6,150. Support comes from solid news from major companies, as well as demand for banks and industrial stocks, which investors consider relatively resilient.
    #FTSE100: The index has risen above 10,780. Gains are fueled by commodity and defensive companies within the index: when raw material prices are high and earnings reports are stable, FTSE tends to move higher. Additionally, the market anticipates more accommodative rate conditions in the UK.
    #NIKKEI225: The index has climbed above 59,430. The upward movement is supported by rising corporate profits, foreign buying activity, and strong technology sectors (chips, AI). A weak or stable yen further benefits exporters.

FreshForex analysts note that further movement in #ASX200, #ESTX50, #FTSE100 and #NIKKEI225 will depend on corporate earnings, interest rate expectations, and overall market sentiment. Since the indices are already at elevated levels, any unexpected news on inflation, monetary policy, or geopolitics could quickly increase volatility. Therefore, maintaining proper risk management and closely monitoring key news and macroeconomic data remains essential.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for February 27, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Producer Price Index

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1810 on Friday as the market weighs the balance between resilient US data and cautious signals on the future interest-rate path. The dollar is supported by recent inflation and consumption figures, as well as expectations that the regulator will base decisions on a series of reports rather than a single release.

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On the US side, investors remain focused on price indicators and business activity: stronger inflation raises required yields on dollar assets and restrains demand for riskier instruments. Another source of uncertainty is trade tariffs and their potential impact on import prices and growth, prompting the market to price a wider range of scenarios.

In the euro area, the backdrop for the euro remains more restrained: weaker demand dynamics and gradual cooling in inflation strengthen expectations that financing conditions will stay accommodative. If US statistics continue to confirm economic resilience, the gap in rate expectations will favor the dollar, and the pair may shift into a downside correction.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1805, SL 1.1835, TP 1.1715

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 02, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

02.03 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is trading around 1.3450 and remains vulnerable as markets increasingly price in easier credit conditions in the UK. Signals from the Bank of England and recent labor market data have strengthened expectations that the policy rate could be cut in the coming months, followed by further steps as inflation slows and hiring cools.

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On the US side, the dollar is supported both by demand for safety and by expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Today’s US manufacturing indicators, including the ISM index, matter for judging economic resilience and price dynamics. If the data come in strong, the dollar may gain and limit any rebound in the pound.

In the UK, attention is on lending and business activity figures, which help assess how quickly domestic demand is slowing. External factors—higher geopolitical tension and rising oil prices—also encourage investor caution and reduce appetite for risk-sensitive currencies. In such conditions, the pound often reacts more weakly than the dollar, keeping pressure on the pair.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3450, SL 1.3470, TP 1.3390

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[FreshForex]

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 06 March 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 5365.00, SL 5315.00, TP 5515.00​

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Gold enters the week near $5,365 per ounce, supported by rising geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices. In a more uncertain environment, investors tend to favor safe-haven assets, while expectations of lower US rates partially reduce the dollar’s support.

This week the focus shifts to US employment data and Federal Reserve comments: stronger figures could temporarily strengthen the dollar and cap gold’s advance. At the same time, risks of energy supply disruptions and steady demand from large buyers may keep prices elevated.

Trading recommendation: BUY 5365.00, SL 5315.00, TP 5515.00

#SP500: SELL 6835, SL 6905, TP 6625

The US equity market starts the week around 6,835 on #SP500 amid a sharp rise in oil prices and increased geopolitical risks. Expensive energy raises business costs and heightens inflation concerns, so investors reassess the outlook for US interest rates more cautiously.

Key catalysts this week are the US jobs report, demand indicators, and a set of corporate earnings releases. Weaker data could reinforce expectations of a rate cut and support equities. However, if tensions persist and oil stays high, the index remains vulnerable to a pullback.

Trading recommendation: SELL 6835, SL 6905, TP 6625

#BRENT: BUY 78.40, SL 76.40, TP 84.40

Brent begins the week near $78.40 per barrel after a sharp jump driven by the Iran-related conflict and risks to shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. The market is pricing in a risk premium for potential delivery delays and higher transport costs, so price reactions to headlines remain fast.

This week, the key drivers are updates on route availability, supply-and-demand assessments, and US crude inventory data. If shipping disruptions persist, the risk of further spikes will remain. A de-escalation or steps to boost supply could cool prices, but the backdrop still supports oil.

Trading recommendation: BUY 78.40, SL 76.40, TP 84.40

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 03, 2026 USDJPY

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is trading around 157.25 on the morning of March 3, reflecting the dollar’s advantage during a period of elevated uncertainty. Against the backdrop of escalating conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices, investors more often choose the dollar as the most liquid instrument, while the yen’s support is weaker than usual due to domestic factors in Japan.

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For the yen, the Bank of Japan’s policy path remains the key factor: the regulator is gradually normalizing policy, but the market is uncertain about the timing of the next steps. Additional uncertainty comes from swings in Japanese bond yields and discussions about possible currency measures by the authorities. For the dollar, expectations around the Fed rate are crucial: strong US data and the risk of more persistent inflation due to expensive oil reduce the likelihood of rapid easing.

As long as the interest-rate differential and demand for the dollar remain significant, the pair can stay elevated. More decisive signals from the Bank of Japan or a sharp easing of geopolitical tensions could strengthen the yen and cap USD/JPY upside, so the position should be managed with discipline and with attention to the schedule of central bank communications.

Trading recommendation: BUY 157.25, SL 156.75, TP 158.75

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[FreshForex]

Oil and gold surge: What’s fueling the market?

Commodity markets have seen a sharp spike: oil jumped by around +14.6%, while gold gained approximately +4.5%. The reason is a rapid increase in the market’s “risk premium” — participants began pricing in a higher probability of supply disruptions and rising logistics costs, resulting in a strong and broad impulsive move.

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It’s not just headlines moving prices — several factors are exerting pressure simultaneously:

• Many traders who were positioned for a decline are urgently covering shorts, pushing prices sharply higher
• Major companies are hedging future oil and metal purchases in advance, boosting demand;
• Shipping and insurance costs have risen — automatically lifting raw material prices;
• Immediate delivery has become a priority, so near-term contracts are gaining faster;
• Due to sharp volatility, brokers are raising margin requirements, forcing traders to quickly close or restructure positions, amplifying price swings.

For the broader market, expensive oil strengthens inflation expectations and dampens appetite for risk assets, while gold benefits as a defensive instrument.

According to FreshForex analysts, further dynamics will depend on how long logistics and supply risks persist. If tensions continue, oil may maintain its upward bias, and gold could test new local highs. If conditions begin to ease, a pullback in oil and a calmer consolidation in gold are likely, although elevated volatility may remain.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 04, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD

On March 4, EUR/USD is holding near 1.16000 after the US dollar strengthened amid escalating conflict in the Middle East and a spike in oil and gas prices. For the euro area, this means more expensive imported energy and higher inflation risks, while for markets it typically means a shift toward more liquid assets—supporting demand for the dollar.

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Pressure on the euro is also driven by the latest eurozone inflation data and the ECB’s assessment that a prolonged energy shock can lift inflation while simultaneously worsening the economic outlook. In such an environment, market participants become more cautious about pricing in policy easing in Europe, waiting for confirmation that price pressures will not become persistent.

From the US side, the picture looks steadier: the economy is less dependent on imported energy, and expectations for rapid Fed rate cuts have been partly pushed back due to the risk of inflation re-accelerating. As long as tensions persist, fundamental factors remain in favor of the dollar; support for the euro would most likely come from de-escalation and signs of cooling inflation in the US.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.16000, SL 1.16350, TP 1.14950

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 05, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

05.03 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is trading with a downward bias as the dollar strengthens after solid US economic releases. February data for the services sector pointed to faster business activity, increasing the likelihood that US rates will stay unchanged for longer. Against this backdrop, demand for the dollar rises and sterling loses support, especially during periods of lower risk appetite.

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For the British currency, inflation risks remain a key theme. The jump in oil and gas prices has increased concerns about additional pressure on consumer prices and pushed short-term yields higher, leading the market to scale back confidence in a quick Bank of England rate cut. Some analysts still allow for a cut as early as March, but expectations for further easing have become less clear-cut.

Within the UK, attention is centered on signals from inflation, wages, and consumer demand: persistent price pressures would extend the period of high rates, while cooling inflation would accelerate the discussion about easing. From the US side, jobless claims and import-price data may act as drivers, potentially reinforcing the dollar.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.3350, SL 1.3380, TP 1.3260

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 06, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

06.03 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is holding near 157.50 and maintains an upward bias, as the dollar continues to receive support from safe-haven demand. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher, and this is particularly unfavorable for Japan, which remains a major energy importer. At the same time, the market has become more cautious in assessing the scale of future US rate cuts, which also works in favor of the dollar.

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There is also a limiting factor for the pair, and it is related to Japan. According to economist surveys, the market expects a further rate increase by the Bank of Japan by the end of June, while the central bank leadership has indicated that the March and April meetings will be important for assessing inflation and wage data. This supports the yen and limits the speed of USD/JPY growth, but for now it does not change the overall balance of forces.

As a result, the market remains caught between two themes: expectations of a firmer stance from the Bank of Japan and the current advantage of the dollar amid high oil prices and increased investor caution. For now, the second theme looks stronger. If external tensions do not ease, the base-case scenario for today remains a moderate move higher in USD/JPY, with buying positions taking priority from current levels.

Trading recommendation: BUY 157.50, SL 157.20, TP 158.40

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[internetional]

I read the first page of the thread. I saw forum members asking questions about the license and about regulatory authorities. But the company representative ignores these questions and continues posting their own messages on the forum. I also saw users posting warnings that it is not worth dealing with this forex dealer, and the company representative does not respond to that either.

Then I moved to the latest pages and see that no one is even trying to ask questions or start a discussion anymore.

So I am curious: if I become a client of FreshForex, will my questions and comments be treated the same way there (that is, simply ignored)?

[FreshForex]

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 13 March 2026

XAUUSD: 5100.70, SL 5095.00, TP 5255.00


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Gold enters the week near $5,100 per ounce as investors seek safety amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and a sharp rise in oil prices. Additional support comes from central bank buying and strong demand for the metal across Asia.

This week, attention will shift to U.S. inflation data and regulators’ response to higher energy costs. If tensions persist, demand for gold may strengthen; if risks ease and the dollar firms, pullbacks are possible.

Trade recommendation: BUY 5100.70, SL 5095.00, TP 5255.00

#SP500: SELL 6700, SL 6710, TP 6460

The S&P 500 starts the week near 6,700 under pressure: the surge in oil raises corporate costs and fuels inflation concerns. Against this backdrop, investors are more cautious toward risk assets and increasingly prefer currencies and bonds.

Next, the market will watch the release of U.S. inflation data and officials’ comments on the impact of expensive energy. If expectations for higher rates become entrenched, the index may continue to decline even alongside solid corporate results.

Trade recommendation: SELL 6700, SL 6710, TP 6460

#BRENT: BUY 102.35, SL 101.50, TP 118.50

Brent is holding around $102.35 per barrel after extreme swings as the market prices in supply disruption risks linked to the war and threats to shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, measures to release part of strategic reserves are being discussed, which is limiting the upside.

In the coming days, the tone will be set by news on route security, OPEC+ decisions, and reports on the supply-demand balance. If logistics disruptions persist, prices may accelerate again; if tensions ease and reserves are released, a correction is possible.

Trade recommendation: BUY 102.35, SL 101.50, TP 118.50

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for March 10, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is holding in the 1.1610–1.1630 area on Tuesday after rebounding from the lows seen at the beginning of the week. The pair is supported by a weaker dollar: oil has pulled back sharply from its recent highs, while the market has partially removed the safe-haven premium from the US currency after signals that the conflict in the Middle East may remain limited in scope. This has eased pressure on inflation expectations and brought back some demand for risk.

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The domestic backdrop is also important for the euro. According to the latest data, inflation in the eurozone accelerated to 1.9%, while the core figure rose to 2.4%, reducing the room for an early rate cut. Representatives of the European Central Bank have noted that they see no reason to rush into changing policy and intend to assess the effects of the energy shock based on incoming data.

Risks for the single currency remain, since Europe is sensitive to oil and gas prices, and a prolonged rise in energy costs could once again worsen sentiment across the region. Nevertheless, on the current date the market is reacting more to the dollar’s correction after its sharp rise in previous sessions. As long as oil continues to retreat and demand for safe-haven assets weakens, the priority for the day appears to be a further recovery in EUR/USD from current levels.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1610, SL 1.1580, TP 1.1700

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