UFC 232: Jones vs Gustafsson 2 Prediction and Info Thread

[tokeweed]

Date: Saturday, December 29
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 22:59 BCT / 3pm PST / 6pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 BCT / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 3:00 BCT / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.fìrstrow.eu/




Main Card (PPV)

Jon Jones (22-1) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (18-4) (Light Heavyweight Championship)
Cris Cyborg (20-1) vs. Amanda Nunes (16-4) (Women's Featherweight Championship)
Carlos Condit (30-12) vs. Michael Chiesa (14-4) (Welterweight)
Ilir Latifi (14-5) vs. Corey Anderson (11-4) (Light Heavyweight)
Chad Mendes (18-4) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (18-1) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Andrei Arlovski (27-17) vs. Walt Harris (11-7) (Heavyweight)
Cat Zingano (10-3) vs. Megan Anderson (8-3) (Women's Featherweight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade (25-2) vs. Petr Yan (10-1) (Bantamweight)
BJ Penn (16-12-2) vs. Ryan Hall (6-1) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Brian Kelleher (19-9) vs. Montel Jackson (6-1) (Bantamweight)
Andre Ewell (14-4) vs. Nathaniel Wood (14-3) (Bantamweight)
Uriah Hall (13-9) vs. Bevon Lewis (6-0) (Middleweight)
Curtis Millender (16-3) vs. Siyar Bahadurzada (24-6-1) (Welterweight)

Other

- Tom Duquesnoy was expected to face Nathaniel Wood at the event. However, Duquesnoy pulled out of the fight on November 12 citing a rib injury. On November 30, Andre Ewell agreed to step in and fight Wood.

Thanks to the Puertorican for letting me use this content.

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[nydiacaskey01]

Interesting match up between Cris Cyborg and Amanda Nunes. Looking at the fight record and statistics for both fighters, Cris Cyborg is ahead of Amanda Nunes in terms of striking accuracy at 58% versus 51% for Amanda Nunes. Cris Cyborg is on a 10 fight winning streak while Amanda Nunes is just 7. Same with knockouts, Cris Cyborg is ahead at 17 while Amanda Nunes is at 11. Amanda Nunes is ahead at 7 first round finishes while Cris Cyborg only have 2.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Jon Jones to win by KO or TKO imo providing he’s been able to get himself fully fit & strong being off the old performance enhancing drugs

He’s one of my favourite fighters so I really hope he’s sorted his shit out.

[krach]

Jones vs. Gustafsson
 Gustafsson 3.43


Cris Cyborg vs. Amanda Nunes
 Nunes 3.25

 Michael Chiesa vs. Carlos Condit
 Chiesa 1.55

Ilir Latifi vs. Corey Anderson
 Latifi 1.66

 Cat Zingano vs Megan Anderson
 Zingano 1.81

https://degenbet.com/ufc-232-jones-vs-gustafsson-quick-picks/

[tokeweed]

^  I'm rooting for Gus but I just can't see how he wins vs Jones.  Jones is just too good.  Same with Nunes...  Cyborg is just too guy.  Lol. 

[krach]

Watch Gus vs. Jones 1, turn the sound off and tell me who won more rounds


Now watch round 1-2 of Jones vs Comier and the OSP fight both of which were after long times off.


Im giving Gus round 1 and maybe 2 based on Jones ring rust, Last fight was very close and he is the only person that has come close to putting jones in real danger.

Look at Nunes´build, her striking tech, she just needs to win 3 out of 5 rounds, when these take place with her on top for most of the round, no problem and she has enough power and take down skills to get it done, not to mention being able to stand with Cyborg.

[tokeweed]

Ok, I'll do that.  But Jones wasn't lying when he said he was partying during that time around the match vs Gus.  Tho I agree Jones didn't look that good vs OSP (maybe cos no roids)...  The Cormier one, I have to look again.

Anyway dunno...  Jones just has more tools.  And he has prolly already learned from the first fight.

[Harlot]

As I much I want to see Gustafsson win this match his recent matches didn't show that he had improved at all since the last match against Jon Jones. Gustafsson somehow became an ok fighter but not an excellent one who will be dominating the light heavyweight division. Only way I can see him win is if he recognizes his mistakes between him and Jones and try to look on how to counter them because he really is eating up a lot of Jones' elbows and it was the game changer during the first match.

[Baofeng]

Isn't it Gustafsson will be coming from a long lay out as well? He last fought Teixeira May 2017 if I'm not mistaken so both of them will ring rust. But I would have to agree with the majority here, I'm not seeing a upset here. We all know that Jones is a freak and the better fighter between the two.

[gabmen]

^  I'm rooting for Gus but I just can't see how he wins vs Jones.  Jones is just too good.  Same with Nunes...  Cyborg is just too guy.  Lol. 

Well i'm not sure about that..gustaffson's already proven himself a match for bones and jones has been through a lot of issues outside the octagon. Let's see if he's laser focused. Though agree with cyborg being too guy lol. And what's this? Bj penn's on  card? 😱

[bbc.reporter]

Isn't it Gustafsson will be coming from a long lay out as well? He last fought Teixeira May 2017 if I'm not mistaken so both of them will ring rust. But I would have to agree with the majority here, I'm not seeing a upset here. We all know that Jones is a freak and the better fighter between the two.

Also, the Swedish mauler Alexander Gustafsson cannot beat the real top 3 in the division. Jon Bones Jones, Anthony Rumble Johnson, and Daniel Fatman Cormier.

[Hydrogen]

Notes.

--Montel Jackson aspired to wrestle in the olympics and found MMA when wrestling was briefly removed as an olympic sport. Could be a future prospect. Lost a close fight against Ricky Simon one of the more underrated and dangerous fighters in the division.

--Alexander Volkanovski trains out of City Kickboxing with Israel Adesanya, Shane Young and Dan Hooker. All of them have shown high level kickboxing I wouldn't count Volkanovski out even being a betting underdog. Volkanovski has also displayed good wrestling.

--BJ Penn didn't appear to have more than 1 round in him in his last fight with Dennis Siver. He tired quickly and didn't have much to show outside of a slim puncher's chance at ending things, against a guy also past his prime and not considered particularly dangerous.

....

Main event.

Most assume the dominant super athlete of the past will show up in Jon Jones. My impressions are Jones deteriorated a little on his last comeback. Jones didn't look impressive in his comeback fight with Ovince St Preux. Jones took a lot more punches to the head in his last fight with Daniel Cormier than Jones would have absorbed in his prime.

Alexander Gustafsson is the opposite, his skills have shown improvement over time.

The fight could be closer than experts are expecting although its difficult to say how close given Jones being out so long and it being relatively unknown whether or not he has been taking care of himself during his USADA suspensions.

[Kemarit]

@bbc.reporter - Yeah I agree, he always fall short when fighting big names in the LHW.

@Hydrogen  - I don't see any improvement though after Gus first fight with Jones. It will be close again, but not that razor thin we have seen in the previous fight. I wouldn't say that Jones will dominate Gus but it's going to be a clear win for him.

[Gambler123]

Very interesting fight card. At best prices the double on the favourites in the main and co-main pays 0.9/1, not a million miles off a coin toss.

I find it tough to see Nunes’ path to victory over Cyborg. Just feels like Cyborg is a bigger better version of Nunes, which is tough on a Nunes because she is an excellent fighter.

The Jones fight is what is putting me off the double. Jones should have a mortal lock on GOAT status now, but has managed to find reasons to not be allowed in a cage recently. the first fight with Gus was close, however there were stories that Jones had not trained properly for that. But he is coming off another extended layoff, and he didn’t look great against OSP last time he had a break, so am I convinced we see Jones back to his best here, maybe he is but if this was his second fight back I would be more convinced.

On the undercard I am surprised the betting on Zingano v Anderson is so close. I know Megan will have the size advantage, but is she really going to be able to keep this fight on the feet against Cat? I Just don’t see it, I thought Cat would be a far bigger favourite and will definitely be my biggest bet of the night.

[Theb]

And what's this? Bj penn's on  card? 😱

I got shocked too just when I thought BJ Penn already had enough on fighting in the octagon for good, he is still plans to fight with this time on a man who might even KO him in the octagon. BJ Penn already announced several retirements already which means he is indecisive whether or not he will continue to fight in the octagon. I love BJ Penn during his early years but I know a fighter who already got enough and had a good run, if he loses this one Dana White might step in and officially declare him unfit to fight in the UFC again and that is for his own good.

[Hydrogen]

@Hydrogen  - I don't see any improvement though after Gus first fight with Jones. It will be close again, but not that razor thin we have seen in the previous fight. I wouldn't say that Jones will dominant Gus but it's going to be a clear win for him.

If you want specifics, I think Alexander Gustafsson's cardio has improved since his first fight with Jon Jones. Gustafsson got tired and faded in rounds 4 and 5. This allowed Jones to mount a comeback in the championship rounds and make a case for him ultimately winning the fight. I don't think Gustafsson will get tired or fade in the rematch the way he did in the 1st fight.

Gustafsson's boxing also seems improved. The uppercuts he hit Glover Teixeira with were better than what he showed earlier in his career. If I'm remembering right, Gustafsson may have trained his boxing with the Klitschko brothers before his 1st fight with Jones. Not certain who his kickboxing coach is @ this point in time but it does seem as if his hands are sharper.

In mixed martial arts, everyone is improving, evolving and getting better over time. There are many old champions like Ben Henderson, Renan Barao, BJ Penn who failed to keep up and were left behind. Jon Jones has beaten the odds thus far. He has been able to get away with a lot of things the average MMA fighters couldn't get away with due to his exceptional athleticism. But there could come a time when active fighters like Alexander Gustafsson will continue to improve to a point where the gap between them and the Jon Jones of the world shrinks noticeably.

[tokeweed]

Here's the first fight between those two just in case some of you haven't seen it before.  It's prolly the FOT for that year or a close second.  

Anyway, enjoy.

UFC 232 Free Fight:  Jones vs Gustafsson 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNKR65ZgT28

[Kemarit]

@Hydrogen  - I don't see any improvement though after Gus first fight with Jones. It will be close again, but not that razor thin we have seen in the previous fight. I wouldn't say that Jones will dominate Gus but it's going to be a clear win for him.

If you want specifics, I think Alexander Gustafsson's cardio has improved since his first fight with Jon Jones. Gustafsson got tired and faded in rounds 4 and 5. This allowed Jones to mount a comeback in the championship rounds and make a case for him ultimately winning the fight. I don't think Gustafsson will get tired or fade in the rematch the way he did in the 1st fight.

Gustafsson's boxing also seems improved. The uppercuts he hit Glover Teixeira with were better than what he showed earlier in his career. If I'm remembering right, Gustafsson may have trained his boxing with the Klitschko brothers before his 1st fight with Jones. Not certain who his kickboxing coach is @ this point in time but it does seem as if his hands are sharper.

In mixed martial arts, everyone is improving, evolving and getting better over time. There are many old champions like Ben Henderson, Renan Barao, BJ Penn who failed to keep up and were left behind. Jon Jones has beaten the odds thus far. He has been able to get away with a lot of things the average MMA fighters couldn't get away with due to his exceptional athleticism. But there could come a time when active fighters like Alexander Gustafsson will continue to improve to a point where the gap between them and the Jon Jones of the world shrinks noticeably.

Maybe he was too inexperienced in the first fight and don't know how to phased himself that's why he run out of gas. He is also throwing uppercuts with the Jones fight but he was not hitting squarely because Jones keeps moving as opposed to Glover just standing with no head movements. That's why his uppercut is very evident on that fight. I remember he hits Glover 3 or 4 successively, Teixeira is a stationary target.

[bbc.reporter]

@Kemrait. What is phased?

@Hydrogen. Jon Jones also has improved his boxing. I reckon the biggest difference between his fights from before and the fight next week will be his hands. They will be faster, stronger and they will hit their targets.

My prediction is a doctor's stoppage on the 5th round because Alexander Gustaffson's eyes are closed shut courtesy of Jon Jones' boxing hehehe.

[Hydrogen]

Maybe he was too inexperienced in the first fight and don't know how to phased himself that's why he run out of gas. He is also throwing uppercuts with the Jones fight but he was not hitting squarely because Jones keeps moving as opposed to Glover just standing with no head movements. That's why his uppercut is very evident on that fight. I remember he hits Glover 3 or 4 successively, Teixeira is a stationary target.

Here are highlights from Gustafsson's fight with Glover Teixeira.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWVdOq_5zZs

Gustafsson's punches seem to land with more impact and force than they did earlier in his career when he fought Jon Jones. You can actually see Glover Teixeira's head snap back from the force of the punches, which mostly glanced off Jon Jones head as they lacked the same type of commitment or body weight behind them.

I re-watched the 1st fight between Jones and Gustaf from the link tokeweed posted above. The kicks to the body Jones landed and the spinning elbows could be what caused Gustafsson to tire.

Those are the impressions I get. Feel free to agree/disagree.

@Kemrait. What is phased?

@Hydrogen. Jon Jones also has improved his boxing. I reckon the biggest difference between his fights from before and the fight next week will be his hands. They will be faster, stronger and they will hit their targets.

My prediction is a doctor's stoppage on the 5th round because Alexander Gustaffson's eyes are closed shut courtesy of Jon Jones' boxing hehehe.

I think Kemarit meant to type "pace himself" instead of "phased himself".

Don't know if Jones has improved his boxing. He does most of his damage with kicks and spinning elbows. He's never inflicted serious damage with punches in a fight that I know of.