Buy the DIP, and HODL!

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Btw the division is quite good but I think we can still divide it equally such as with $300 in each purchase or DCA made or maybe make it $200 in one time it is also still possible.

I think that you are referring to my example of a $1,200 budget and placing them in 4 different price locations.

I think that I largely addressed this as a way that some kinds of buy order structures and plans are deficient and they may well cause panic because of their deficiencies, so merely dividing them into equal parts would not necessarily improve the deficiencies that I was trying to point out, but I agree with you that there are some benefits in terms of trying to stay somewhat consistent with amounts, once we might figure out other details, such as what are our increments, how much we have in our budget and how far down we want our buys to go in order to attempt to account for what we believe to be worse case scenarios (and perhaps even having enough of a budget to go beyond what we consider to be worse case scenarios).

Yep, it refers to the example you gave so that the discussion does not widen much, but in the end it also adjusts to the capital we have and I am aware of that, it's just that when there is already an example so that the discussion refers more to the DCA in question, I just give my views on the example you gave earlier.
The context may go back to consistency because if indeed we cannot be consistent with large amounts then at least it can be minimised in terms of the amount invested so that the DCA we do runs well.

Sure, there may be a certain value to consistency in terms of both DCA and buying on dips, but it may not necessarily be something that we need to think of in terms of having to be strict with ourselves when we might have some parameters that we might choose to use that will also work.

I was even talking about the same idea in one of my posts from yesterday.

Anything that takes Bitcoin below $20k again will make a lot of people, including me, buy aggressively. That will be a major giveaway because any positive news will lead to immediate profits even before the much anticipated bull market.

I don't see that happening though but then, we always keep open mind as either way is good for me... the beauty of DCA.

I am not sure what to make about these theories about backing up the truck - since a lot of bitcoin believers will already be buying BTC all the way down from $30k, so there can be questions about how much money many of the true bitcoin believers are going to have left if the BTC price were to drop below $20k again.

Actually, I am not left behind in Bitcoin accumulation since I started applying DCA. I might not be buying with large capital but at least I am building without minding the price. I got a decent proportion of my orders filled around $25,600 and I still orders lower. Remember in one of my comment, I told
made some gains applying DCA instead of my former pattern of buying at market price whenever I have fund available for buying.

It seems to me that relatively pure DCA practices would account for either cases in which:

1) you have some set dollar amount that you buy BTC at some set period whether daily, weekly or some other period

or

2) you buy based on when your money comes available, so the date and the amount would vary, but perhaps you would have a formula that allows you to figure out how much extra that you have available (accounting for monthly expenses to determine how much is left available, of course).

Surely the more that you vary either 1 or 2, then you are perhaps overly bringing your own discretion into the mix, and it still may well fit DCA depending on the extent to which you may well have some kind of a system in which you are trying to stay consistent but giving yourself some flexibility within some somewhat objective criteria.

So I think that part of my point is that there can be very legitimate reasons to vary either our DCA or our buying on dips based on a variety of circumstances that might include either how much cash that we have coming  in, and the variance of the cash that would be available for buying, and as I already mentioned, if we have some kind of theory about how far the BTC price might drop, then we might attempt to strategize our amounts and our increments based on our thoughts on various areas in which there might be price support (meaning that the BTC price might not end up going below that level, but if it does end up going below that level then we might try to anticipate where the next support level might be).

 Like I already mentioned, even though this thread does have a subject matter that involves trying to identify possible dip price areas, I tend to not be so keen about trying to figure out those areas, but I do try to place my BTC buy orders in increments that I believe are sufficiently reasonable for me, which right now they are $500 increments, and I also try to place them much further down than I believe that the BTC price will go, which currently I have them at $13k, and I largely just left those buy orders in the same spot that I had when the price had dipped down to $15,479, even though a couple of times, I did change the amounts contained in each of the preset buy orders.. but they do currently stay in $500 increments all the way down to $13k.. and surely I don't even want $25k support to be broken.. but if it is, I will likely be buying, and I anticipate that there is likely support at $22k and at $20k, but my BTC buy orders are largely the same amount all the way down through those various price points and all the way down to $13k (even though as I am arguing those buy orders do not necessarily need to be the same amounts.. but I kind of feel better to have them being the same amounts, even though I largely hope none of them get filled).

By the way, I think that it may well take years for someone to really feel that they have bought enough bitcoin (in the sense of feeling overallocated/overinvested, but still comfortable at the same time, and then being able to place BTC buy orders down way further than he expects to get filled) because largely a lot of those extra (and low level) buy orders are just cash being left on the table in the event that the BTC price goes up, so it can take a long time to feel comfortable enough that you have enough BTC in order to leave those BTC buy orders in place, even though they are likely not going to get filled (but they still continue to serve as a kind of insurance and a kind of cash cushion in case the BTC price does end up falling to those kinds of levels that are way beyond expectations).

Yeah of course, you can employ your own variation of DCA, but if you do not really understand what you are doing, it is likely best to attempt to employ a more strict variation of DCA first, and make sure that you understand the more strict variation of DCA before you start to get too fancy and then end up doing something that you call DCA but it really is not even close to what DCA should be.. but instead a kind of buying on dips or even a kind of gambling, but you call it DCA because you start out with DCA and then devolve into something else.

What factors makes one DCA strategy strict one and fancy one. Are these two mentioned ways of DCA are strict or Fancy one. Because from what I have learnt in the short period is in DCA we do not put all of our money at once just like we do in lump sum instead we try to time the market or at least to increase the profit on our holding to get our hands on more Satoshi.

You do seem to be mixing up your definitions a bit, so I am not sure if I am going to be able to pound the proper way of thinking about the matter into your head.

A more strict DCA approach is going to largely be price agnostic, and so the buying of BTC will be based on the budgetary considerations of the BTC buyer, so if he looks at his budget and he sees that he has $1k per month coming in, and he has various expenses such as housing, utilities, food, transportation, entertainment, and maybe all of those expenses add up to about $700 to $800 every month, so he only has $200 to $300 per month that he can invest, but maybe he should be making sure that he builds and/or maintains an emergency fund, so maybe he feels comfortable buying $100 per month in BTC, and he will have $100 to $200 going into his slush fund that maybe he can draw from that fund later to buy some BTC, for example if his slush fund might become greater than $3,500, then he might start to conclude that he has around 5 months worth of expenses in it, and maybe he can afford to not have that much money in his slush/emergency fund and he might feel that he is in a better position to allocate the whole $200-$300 per month into BTC rather than just $100...but even within that category of how much BTC he is able to buy regularly (maybe even dividing that into weekly, he still might have some that he buys no matter what $15 to $40 per week (depending on how much is in his total budget, and then he might decide to hold the remaining value for buying on dips.. so buying on dips is not the same as DCA, even though there may be considerations of each of the categories and deciding how much BTC to buy each week that fits into the DCA, and then the other portion that might depend on the dips would be buying on dips.

Another thing is that maybe this person has his budget pretty well figured out and his emergency fund is good, but his cash variance can still be great enough that he has some uncertainties about whether he might have $100 or $300 for the month to be able to buy BTC, but he also might end up in a kind of situation in which he ends up getting some kind of extra cashflow once or twice a year (maybe a job bonus or just some kind of lucky payment that he might receive from time to time).. so maybe all of a sudden he has $1,200 extra that comes into his cashflow that he had not expected, so he considers that amount to be totally available for buying bitcoin, so in that kind of a case, he can consider the money in three categories and decide how much to put into each category, which is 1) lump sum 2) DCA, 3) buying on dips.  He can decide to put $400 into each of the three categories or he could decide to vary it or to put all or some of it into only one of the categories.

And I read some articles too about DCA types, but I did not find any, but I do find an advice that we should do DCA only in those assets or in only those investments which are for longer period of time.

Well one of the ONLY ways that DCA really works is if you have some level of confidence that the asset in which you are investing is going to have periods in which it goes up in value so that you would be able to cash out at a higher price down the road at some point, even if the short-term price might have a decent amount of volatility and variance.

Of course with something like bitcoin, we have presumptions about the longer term price going up, even though for sure it is not guaranteed to go up, but part of the justification for DCAing into BTC is that there are beliefs that the price will ultimately go up, but since there is also a non-zero chance that it might not, each of us should attempt to be both financially prepared for that possibility which may well be something that we can adjust to based on how large of a position that we choose to take into bitcoin...or how aggressive that we want to be and whether we might choose to invest into other things (I am not referring to shitcoins here but rather things like property, equities, bonds, commodities and cash).

You seem to be describing that correctly.  So if you have a regular DCA set up, then you might have some dollars that you are holding in reserves, so when the BTC price dips, then you decide how much of that money in reserves that you are going to want to use to................

Understood your points here. In short, I understand that every situation has different DCA strategies. Like when we have more fiat, less fiat, price is on it ATH in some specific time period etc. And thanks for the assistance too.

Strict DCA is not concerned about price.  When you are concerned about the BTC price you are engaging in buying on dip strategies... not DCA.. now if you want to create a kind of hybrid, you might budget yourself to have $50 per week to DCA, and within each week you might decide that you will try to manual employ your $50 at the lowest price, so maybe you have a target price that you are looking for, but if at the end of the week, your price is not met, you just buy at whatever price is present, and you then go into the next week with another $50, but you end up spending the earlier week either on a dip or at your cut off deadline time in which if you had not already bought on a dip, you will buy at whatever is the then BTC price.

I guess that you are making a certain kind of point with the chart regarding ongoing wrong bitcoin price predictions, but wouldn't it also be a good idea to provide a link to the chart so that we can see from where you get it and maybe some other context for the various dots within the chart?

https://zurichcryptojournal.com/how-many-time-has-bitcoin-be-called-dead/

I do not know if dear Wind_FURY has downloaded the image from the following website or not, but I found it using google lens and google lens helped me a lot in giving online tests. Even in the assignments of making apps in java they gave us diagrams and all I do is use google lens and then upload that image to find out that from which website they have picked the picture and once I able to find the source then it became super easy for me to copy the code. I know that's not a good way, but assignments take huge time and while we have our hands on full of assistance then i do not hesitate to use them Hehe.

Oh great. .thanks for the link.  I see that there is no real article.. just the chart... but still at least it shows a possible place that the chart might have come from.

[Wind_FURY]

They said Bitcoin will "never recover".



Look at the red dots in that chart. After the recent "mini-crash", expect another few months of "it is dead"/doom and gloom towards Bitcoin from respected economists, the morons from legacy finance, and mere FUDsters. There are many of them, and ALL of them were always proven WRONG AGAIN AND AGAIN. Just HODL!

What if these guys do this to intentionally drop the price in order to buy low and sell high? We tend to look this guys only from one perspective but the truth is that, to them it is all about a game of profits. They don't attach emotions and are never loyal to anything. It might seem that they were proven wrong time and time again but they might actually be balancing their books in the whole thing.

If you pay close attention, you will noticed that Elon Musk seems to have deployed that method to cash out. Don't be surprise if he comes back again and accumulate Bitcoin citing one uncoherent reason for coming back... but then, he would have bought very low to sell high fee years from now. This guys are playing money game...

I believe not, because most of those "orbituaries" are made by nocoiners - People who either haven't used or owned any Bitcoin. Plus they say that from a viewpoint that doesn't have any understanding how the protocol works, nor do they understand how unique and special Bitcoin is. It's probably like the invention of the printing press, the automobile, and the internet. People had their criticisms because they simply weren't open-minded.

They said Bitcoin will "never recover".

Look at the red dots in that chart. After the recent "mini-crash", expect another few months of "it is dead"/doom and gloom towards Bitcoin from respected economists, the morons from legacy finance, and mere FUDsters. There are many of them, and ALL of them were always proven WRONG AGAIN AND AGAIN. Just HODL!

I guess that you are making a certain kind of point with the chart regarding ongoing wrong bitcoin price predictions, but wouldn't it also be a good idea to provide a link to the chart so that we can see from where you get it and maybe some other context for the various dots within the chart?

That chart is not about wrong" price predictions". It's about simply being wrong about Bitcoin.

[Dictator69]

Now if you are doing extra or changing your DCA, then that is not really strict DCA anymore but instead a kind of hybrid that takes advantage of the dip, in the employment of buying on dips practices.

This might sound impulsive and a pretty barbaric strategy, but if we can afford to do something like that then why not.
It is not meant to change the DCA that was done before and the DCA still continues to be done, it's just that we can also take advantage of making some new purchases when a decline like this occurs because this would be a shame to miss.

I read your previous discussions and after reading the reply of Furious in previous page, I began to think should we even do DCA in dumps like these because we knew this is the lowest BTC could go. But if we do not know either it's the lowest or not then it is always a good strategy to save some fiat to enter to buy more Satoshi in dips. But still, I think DCA is not something a strict rule which we should follow like we could make decisions of taking entries with the sensitivity of market.

Let's say we have still $1000 in savings even after doing the DCA when the BTC is at $20k and after some bad news or whatever reason BTC again touches $17k or $18k then I think the wise decision would be to put all $1000 into the market instead still doing DCA at that moment.

It depends on your own strategy and choice, I think. Regardless of whether you want DCA or waiting if you really believe the price you are waiting for will be reached then that is also no problem as long as the focus is still buying regardless of buy on the dips or DCA you determine what you think is best.

But in this case I will still do both, DCA is one of the things that I still continue to do and stopping DCA means I have lost consistency in it and it will be annoying on the other hand that does not mean I am not preparing to buy on the dip because it is also still possible for me to do but on the other hand this is also not to be a reference for others because again all have strategies and patterns that they do in collecting bitcoin it's just that this is my version regardless of this is one of greed or impulsiveness I have no problem with it because I have considered my financial condition.

Got it, We should do DCA for the long run and for the short term we should do lump sum because I have found one calculator to calculate what results we might get if we have done lump sum or DCA. Well, here is the site Not trying to promote it here instead sharing for info only. https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin

Well, I have got some results by entering some dates and in the last 6 months we make profit only if we have done lump sum but by doing DCA we might lose the asset's value. The thing is, accumulating is all matter as you said so I think I am agree with you.

[Rabata]

Currently Bitcoin is price of 29K that still much lower than the expected price which still serves as an opportunity for investors.

I would suggest not to get your expectations up too high.  Sure, it is good to consider upside scenarios, but we also should consider both downside and flat scenarios, and it seems to be an unhealthy perspective to consider $29k as if it was "overly suppressed" or some other kind of sentiment like that, even if there might be some truth to it.

Sure, we might be arguing somewhat about semantics because I am likely of a pretty similar conclusion to you in regards to the BTC price being low in light of historical context and in terms of the 200-week moving average, but that does not cause me to take for granted that the next likely step is UP rather than down or sideways.

So surely another way of framing any question regarding where we are at versus where we might be going is to attempt to put bitcoin in a kind of framework while still considering UP as one of the possible directions, but even if you might assign higher odds to up rather than down or sideways, that does not even mean that the higher odds will happen.

So let's say that you assign your odds as follows:  40% up  / 28%  down  and / 32% sideways.. so even if you assign the highest of odds to UPpity, you cannot assume those others to be zero or even lower than they actually are.

Sure, you might come up with different numbers than me.. and sure let's give it a timeframe of within the next year, so we should have both time and price... so what are you going to do?  Are you going to refuse to assign values to the other possible scenarios or just talk about them as if they are zero just because they are lower than what you believe to be the more likely scenario?  whether you are correct or not, that's likely even another question.

I am optimistic long-term prospect with Bitcoin. Perhaps I can achieve a good profit starting from next year since a potential halving is anticipated. I aim to extend my holding period further. While my Bitcoin holdings may be relatively small, I can potentially gain more rewards over the long run. If I had not invested in Bitcoin, I might have kept that money in a bank. I'm uncertain about how much return the bank could offer me. Inflation has increased, and the government has also raised account maintenance charges. So, there is no possibility of earning any significant returns by keeping money in bank. I am looking to keep my Bitcoin for the long term, with the hope of achieving good returns. I have faith in Bitcoin because when the bitcoin price was less than 10 thousand, I didn't invest in it. I also refrained from purchasing Bitcoin during its last bull market peak. I can't predict exactly how my investment will turn out in terms of profit when the specified time comes to an end. The Bitcoin price might not increase as per my expectations but I am not overly concerned about it because what I believe is that at some point, it will turn bullish and this is the strength of mine. However, looking at the current price, I am holding a bullish outlook and have confidently made an investment decision.

[bitLeap]

Yep, it refers to the example you gave so that the discussion does not widen much, but in the end it also adjusts to the capital we have and I am aware of that, it's just that when there is already an example so that the discussion refers more to the DCA in question, I just give my views on the example you gave earlier.
The context may go back to consistency because if indeed we cannot be consistent with large amounts then at least it can be minimised in terms of the amount invested so that the DCA we do runs well.

Sure, there may be a certain value to consistency in terms of both DCA and buying on dips, but it may not necessarily be something that we need to think of in terms of having to be strict with ourselves when we might have some parameters that we might choose to use that will also work.

I was even talking about the same idea in one of my posts from yesterday.

Consistent is a word that seems easy to do, but in practice it is sometimes very difficult, especially when we don't have an organized plan. To be honest, I want to be more flexible in this regard, it doesn't mean I'm inconsistent, but in reality I sometimes have to divert the money that I intended to do DCA for more urgent needs.
For the nominal problem, I believe we have different abilities, and in the midst of that difference I still work hard to always make purchases.
Oh yes, we also have to distinguish between working hard to achieve something and forcing ourselves to achieve something. There are times when we have to think about that, because it is not uncommon for people to think they are working hard, when in fact, they are pushing themselves.

[348Judah]

Yep, it refers to the example you gave so that the discussion does not widen much, but in the end it also adjusts to the capital we have and I am aware of that, it's just that when there is already an example so that the discussion refers more to the DCA in question, I just give my views on the example you gave earlier.
The context may go back to consistency because if indeed we cannot be consistent with large amounts then at least it can be minimised in terms of the amount invested so that the DCA we do runs well.

Sure, there may be a certain value to consistency in terms of both DCA and buying on dips, but it may not necessarily be something that we need to think of in terms of having to be strict with ourselves when we might have some parameters that we might choose to use that will also work.

I was even talking about the same idea in one of my posts from yesterday.

Consistent is a word that seems easy to do, but in practice it is sometimes very difficult, especially when we don't have an organized plan. To be honest, I want to be more flexible in this regard, it doesn't mean I'm inconsistent, but in reality I sometimes have to divert the money that I intended to do DCA for more urgent needs.
For the nominal problem, I believe we have different abilities, and in the midst of that difference I still work hard to always make purchases.
Oh yes, we also have to distinguish between working hard to achieve something and forcing ourselves to achieve something. There are times when we have to think about that, because it is not uncommon for people to think they are working hard, when in fact, they are pushing themselves.

Making diversification of the money you would have invested and hodl in bitcoin on other needs more urgent my not be perfect decision enough except if what you're going after is more profitable than bitcoin investment as the moment which i may doubt, to make it more simpler than before, we can see the reason why it has been always suggested that DCA should be the best strategy to use when accumulating, there's more of advantage in using it than you will have to rush in for an investment at once, this prepares you on a ground that allows an opportunity to earn and minimize loss, also you will be able to attend to other things in demand without having to pressurized yourself on single entity while making a decision, just have other additional alternatives, invest buying the dip, hodl and release when time is due for doing so, bitcoin is for profitable investment if we take advantage of holding.

[adultcrypto]

But in this case I will still do both, DCA is one of the things that I still continue to do and stopping DCA means I have lost consistency in it and it will be annoying on the other hand that does not mean I am not preparing to buy on the dip because it is also still possible for me to do but on the other hand this is also not to be a reference for others because again all have strategies and patterns that they do in collecting bitcoin it's just that this is my version regardless of this is one of greed or impulsiveness I have no problem with it because I have considered my financial condition.

Most people do not really know how easy DCA makes life to be in the aspect of buying bitcoin. The greatest challenge people have about bitcoin investment is knowing when to buy and when to sell. DCA removes this burden and allow you do this things seamlessly. I used to be very emotional about investing in bitcoin but with DCA, I am like a robot... only following the rules as I set them. This save me energy and time and help me better manage my resources. It also make me not to buy under compulsion or put myself into pressure as regards to other things of life.

I am optimistic long-term prospect with Bitcoin. Perhaps I can achieve a good profit starting from next year since a potential halving is anticipated. I aim to extend my holding period further. While my Bitcoin holdings may be relatively small, I can potentially gain more rewards over the long run. If I had not invested in Bitcoin, I might have kept that money in a bank. I'm uncertain about how much return the bank could offer me. Inflation has increased, and the government has also raised account maintenance charges. So, there is no possibility of earning any significant returns by keeping money in bank. I am looking to keep my Bitcoin for the long term, with the hope of achieving good returns. I have faith in Bitcoin because when the bitcoin price was less than 10 thousand, I didn't invest in it. I also refrained from purchasing Bitcoin during its last bull market peak. I can't predict exactly how my investment will turn out in terms of profit when the specified time comes to an end. The Bitcoin price might not increase as per my expectations but I am not overly concerned about it because what I believe is that at some point, it will turn bullish and this is the strength of mine. However, looking at the current price, I am holding a bullish outlook and have confidently made an investment decision.

Are you by any means saying that you plan to sell all your bitcoin next year if the halving result in new ATH? If yes, that means you really do not believe in the longevity of bitcoin. I wouldn't want to believe that is what you will do because if you look at historic data of bitcoin, selling at every new ATH would have resulted in one missing out on the bigger moves because there is no guarantee that you will buy again after selling and even if you happen to buy again, you may not buy the quantity you had previously.

What I have seen many people suggest is to sell some proportions only when you have seen remarkable increase in profit and this sell should be strictly based on needs because it is better to keep your funds in something reliable like bitcoin than saving same in the bank to be eaten up by inflation. I agree with this theory of selling just small fraction strictly based on needs. Anyways, I may not know what your plans are or if you have a strategy that you are following, so I can only make suggestions and leave you to make the decision.

The beauty of forum like this is that it gives us the opportunity to share ideas and learn what others are doing, maybe we can apply some in our daily lives.

[Dictator69]

It's really a big hurdle, but we shouldn't let that stop us from recommending bitcoin to them. Because maybe their desire is not necessarily profit but most likely, they want to experience new technology like bitcoin. I think at that age, money is no longer a big deal for them.

If my grandfather also likes to invest in bitcoin. I am willing to use my own money for him to experience because at my grandfather's age, money is not the most important thing.

I'm not a hypocrite when it comes to experiencing new technology, to be honest, the benefits still hold for people who enter Bitcoin, regardless of the new technology, it's a plus point to be felt by everyone. But when there is no profit to be gained, it does not mean that interest in it has increased. The important point of what we are targeting is long-term profit. Old age and youth are only a limit if we are able to place it according to the level of understanding. Your grandfather is good enough and willing to make decisions, but when something unexpected happens, you should at least be the first to allocate the profit for your grandfather's health insurance, not for personal gain.

Basically, what you guys are discussing here is, either an aged person should learn new skills, or adopt new technology. We tend to have these types of thoughts because we know they are at the end of their age and who knows how many days they have left. But I have a strong belief about we should not think that because even we do not have the full surety that either we are going to live another day or not. But still, we wake up and try to make efforts to make a good living for ourselves and for our loved ones.

Point is it does not matter either one person is aged or just a young one they should learn new skills; they should adopt new technologies like BTC. Meaning in the journey of experiencing new technologies people always started to make money so there is not point remains of discussing either one enters BTC to make money while lesser enter BTC to experience it. TBH, who enters it once and experience it then it must have become difficult for them to leave it.

I just experienced an example of such young and aged people, I actually taking some course of online money making and in one of the curse two people one is around 17 years old, and one is 75 years old, and they both are learning the skill from the same teacher. Means sometimes it looks so strange but those who have passion to learn new things should not worry about their end days. I mean to say they should not think we will die tomorrow so left the option of investing in BTC as we might not be there to get benefit from the profit. Ok if you want to get benefit then donate the profit to any charity made from BTC. How will one do that. He could write a will or anything similar or could hire a Lawer for that.

[Odohu]

Consistent is a word that seems easy to do, but in practice it is sometimes very difficult, especially when we don't have an organized plan. To be honest, I want to be more flexible in this regard, it doesn't mean I'm inconsistent, but in reality I sometimes have to divert the money that I intended to do DCA for more urgent needs.
For the nominal problem, I believe we have different abilities, and in the midst of that difference I still work hard to always make purchases.
Oh yes, we also have to distinguish between working hard to achieve something and forcing ourselves to achieve something. There are times when we have to think about that, because it is not uncommon for people to think they are working hard, when in fact, they are pushing themselves.

Planning is the first stage of anything that is associated with consistency. It is following the plan that is called consistency.   DCA is itself a plan and following your DCA is the consistency. Many people have developed many additions to DCA but I see these as something that can lead to confusion because there are high chances of emotion creeping in when you continue to vary your DCA with so many additions. Ever since I learnt about DCA, I have witnessed a lot of improvement in my approach to building my portfolio. First my emotions are in check, greed level watched and I am no more perturbed by the price since I know that this is a buying season.

I am glad I have transtioned to the state of trading the plan because many people actually make good plans but the implementation is where the problem comes in.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Got it, We should do DCA for the long run and for the short term we should do lump sum because I have found one calculator to calculate what results we might get if we have done lump sum or DCA. Well, here is the site Not trying to promote it here instead sharing for info only. https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin

Well, I have got some results by entering some dates and in the last 6 months we make profit only if we have done lump sum but by doing DCA we might lose the asset's value. The thing is, accumulating is all matter as you said so I think I am agree with you.

Some of those pro-lump sum arguments presume too much about people having lump sums that are available and able to be invested at strategic times, and I have certainly had a lot of arguments with many members about these kinds of comparisons, and one area of my arguments tend to hone upon the fact that people likely are much better off to do DCA both in the sense that they don't have lump sums of money available and if they try to fuck around with waiting or timing their investments in order to carry out lump sums, then they would be more likely to spend too much time waiting and spend less time putting money into bitcoin.

Sure once they have already established a bit of a bitcoin stash over 2-5 years, then maybe they can start to let off on the DCA and attempt to be more strategic in terms of timing their buys, whether that would be considered buying on dips or lump sum buying.

And, let's revisit some variation of the example that I had given earlier.  Let's say that someone had been buying bitcoin for 18 months and employing some variations of DCA and perhaps some variations of that, and maybe during those 18 months they had been spending about $100 to $300 per month (so maybe an average of $200 per month), so that would mean that they had already invested about $3600 into BTC.

If such a person all of a sudden got some kind of an extra cash flow that is $1,200 dollars, then that person is going to have a lump sum that is then available to him/her and s/he is going to have to decide between the 3 categories regarding how to divide it up, and I think that the default position would be to divide it equally into $400 for each category - however, no one can really decide if the default position of dividing it equally would be the best or if some other way of dividing it might be preferable - so likely more details are going to need to be known, and who is going to know those details besides the individual (and by the way view of what the bitcoin price is going to do happens to ONLY be one of the criteria that individuals should be attempting to account for when making those kinds of BTC accumulation strategy choices).

[edited out]

I am optimistic long-term prospect with Bitcoin. Perhaps I can achieve a good profit starting from next year since a potential halving is anticipated. I aim to extend my holding period further. While my Bitcoin holdings may be relatively small, I can potentially gain more rewards over the long run. If I had not invested in Bitcoin, I might have kept that money in a bank. I'm uncertain about how much return the bank could offer me. Inflation has increased, and the government has also raised account maintenance charges. So, there is no possibility of earning any significant returns by keeping money in bank. I am looking to keep my Bitcoin for the long term, with the hope of achieving good returns. I have faith in Bitcoin because when the bitcoin price was less than 10 thousand, I didn't invest in it. I also refrained from purchasing Bitcoin during its last bull market peak. I can't predict exactly how my investment will turn out in terms of profit when the specified time comes to an end. The Bitcoin price might not increase as per my expectations but I am not overly concerned about it because what I believe is that at some point, it will turn bullish and this is the strength of mine. However, looking at the current price, I am holding a bullish outlook and have confidently made an investment decision.

There is nothing to disagree with in your statement, and part of the reason that bitcoin remains an asymmetric bet to the upside is that whatever amount that you choose to invest into bitcoin, the most that you can lose is all of it, but there are also potentials that you may well be able to profit from it.. and even earn more than you would investing in other places and there are also quite grand upside possible scenarios that are not guaranteed, but there is nothing wrong with the conclusion that bitcoin is amongst the best of asymmetric bets that are currently wide-spread available (if not the best). 

Each of us has a choice whether or not to have some kind of bitcoin allocation and we also have choices about how much of a stake to take, within our own capacities to accomplish such stake without overdoing it in such a way that we end up losing it because we had over done it.

We know that there continue to be an overwhelmingly large number of people who either have no bitcoin stake or a very low bitcoin stake, and that's surely there choice, even if many of us already into bitcoin and studying bitcoin speculate that more and more people are likely going to be getting into bitcoin, whether they currently want to or currently think it is a good idea or not... which is likely to ongoingly reward those who came to those kinds of decisions and made those kinds of investment choices sooner.. and sure it sounds like pumping some kind of Ponzi scheme.. even though it the truth of the matter with a sound money and scarce asset like bitcoin, the earliest of adopters are likely to be rewarded and they likely don't even necessarily need to have super high stakes in bitcoin in order to likely disproportionately benefit from getting into bitcoin...

so even though there are no guarantees, it is good to recognize and appreciated the asymmetric bet nature of bitcoin and likely to emphasize accumulating it rathe than strategizing and/or figuring out points in which to sell it (once you got some of it). .. but hey everyone is free to make their own choices regarding how to think about these kinds of matters and how much of a stake, if any, to take into bitcoin including points in which they might consider selling it.. which might end up being too much too soon.. so careful with those kinds of actions, once you already are accumulating BTC.

Yep, it refers to the example you gave so that the discussion does not widen much, but in the end it also adjusts to the capital we have and I am aware of that, it's just that when there is already an example so that the discussion refers more to the DCA in question, I just give my views on the example you gave earlier.
The context may go back to consistency because if indeed we cannot be consistent with large amounts then at least it can be minimised in terms of the amount invested so that the DCA we do runs well.

Sure, there may be a certain value to consistency in terms of both DCA and buying on dips, but it may not necessarily be something that we need to think of in terms of having to be strict with ourselves when we might have some parameters that we might choose to use that will also work.

I was even talking about the same idea in one of my posts from yesterday.

Consistent is a word that seems easy to do, but in practice it is sometimes very difficult, especially when we don't have an organized plan.

In the last day since I made that responsive post, I had been thinking about my own practices over the years, and there surely have been times and areas in which I am either buying or selling (setting ladders) that I am consistent in terms of the amounts and also in terms of the increments, but a lot of factors can come to play that cause us to reconsider the extent to which consistency (which might be a kind of default set up) is actually helping us to balance out where we happen to be at any particular time in our bitcoin accumulation journey or even if we might be further down the road in more of a maintenance location.

Sometimes we might be attempting to recreate some kind of balance that might have come from something that we did.. maybe we sold too much or we bought too much or we might have money on various exchanges and in cold wallets, and we might be engaging in practices to move from one location to another, so sometimes we can sell at one location and buy at another location in order to attempt to achieve our balances, which also might have arbitrage opportunties, yet I am not even necessarily referring to taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities but instead moving value from one place to another.  I am a bit reluctant to get too far off topic here.. so maybe I will just leave it at that for now, unless someone might want an example in order to better understand these kinds of rebalancing ideas... that might be employed with DCA, buying on dips and lump sum strategies... 

To be honest, I want to be more flexible in this regard, it doesn't mean I'm inconsistent, but in reality I sometimes have to divert the money that I intended to do DCA for more urgent needs.

That happens to me quite a bit... and that is one of the advantages of already projecting out your cashflows in advance so you can see exactly how much you may have allocated for certain things, and if you have some flexibilities in your incoming or outgoing amounts, you will already know from which areas that you might take from first, second third, and then pretty soon you might have had some plans about some amounts that were strict, but then you realize that it is better that you reduce your DCA or maybe even bring it down to zero for a certain period of time than to resort to some other less preferable actions, which might be selling some asset that you do not want to sell, including but not limited to BTC... there should be an order to these things that you have mostly already thought through and you have some ideas about how flexible you are able to be in light of how well you have planned it out and maintained some flexibilities in your system.

For the nominal problem, I believe we have different abilities, and in the midst of that difference I still work hard to always make purchases.

Exactly.  You can have strictness and flexibility going on at the same time... even if you have set aside $400 per month and/or $100 per week for BTC buys, you might already know that there is going to be some variance in that amount, but then you might even tell yourself that "no matter what (within reason)" I am going to at least buy $10 per week.

Oh yes, we also have to distinguish between working hard to achieve something and forcing ourselves to achieve something. There are times when we have to think about that, because it is not uncommon for people to think they are working hard, when in fact, they are pushing themselves.

These are not easy to know in the moment and frequently it takes experience to better understand boundaries (or thresholds) that we might have, and if we might have gone too far in something that goes from being aggressive and/or assertive and into the lands of gambling.  .., and it can sometimes be o.k. to cross over into some places that we might not want to go, but we have to realize also whether we might still be able to achieve some of the same desires for risks or whatever, but just take a bit of a smaller position size for that particular part of what we might be trying to do.. for example, we might go over budget on something or we might even decide to be overly whimpy on something... but if we think about why we are doing it and what are the consequences, then at least we have potentially been able to get some of the benefits of modifying what we had thought that we were going to do, but to modify it in such a way that accounts how much of a position we using in order to take those actions.

[DaNNy001]

Yep, it refers to the example you gave so that the discussion does not widen much, but in the end it also adjusts to the capital we have and I am aware of that, it's just that when there is already an example so that the discussion refers more to the DCA in question, I just give my views on the example you gave earlier.
The context may go back to consistency because if indeed we cannot be consistent with large amounts then at least it can be minimised in terms of the amount invested so that the DCA we do runs well.

Sure, there may be a certain value to consistency in terms of both DCA and buying on dips, but it may not necessarily be something that we need to think of in terms of having to be strict with ourselves when we might have some parameters that we might choose to use that will also work.

I was even talking about the same idea in one of my posts from yesterday.

Consistent is a word that seems easy to do, but in practice it is sometimes very difficult, especially when we don't have an organized plan. To be honest, I want to be more flexible in this regard, it doesn't mean I'm inconsistent, but in reality I sometimes have to divert the money that I intended to do DCA for more urgent needs.
For the nominal problem, I believe we have different abilities, and in the midst of that difference I still work hard to always make purchases.
Oh yes, we also have to distinguish between working hard to achieve something and forcing ourselves to achieve something. There are times when we have to think about that, because it is not uncommon for people to think they are working hard, when in fact, they are pushing themselves.

I agree consistency is rather simple to say than to practice even for folks who have drafted out a perfect plan towards getting a certain amount of bitcoin to their wallet but in all it still boils down to how disciplined you are in achieving your goals because you might have drafted  out your plan but if there is no discipline then your goals and targets will just be a mere speculation as to same fate with bitcoin enthusiasts and the price of BITCOIN.

[Nwada001]

Planning is the first stage of anything that is associated with consistency. It is following the plan that is called consistency.   DCA is itself a plan and following your DCA is the consistency.

I get your point, but I don't see consistency as just following your plan, as plans can be followed in different ways. Let me say, for instance, that I have a plan to accumulate 1 Bitcoin before the end of one year, and initially I strategize to buy another 0.08335 before the end of every month. In the first two to three months, I was able to achieve that, but because of some kind of personal issue, you decided to shift out the amount you want to accumulate this month, but with the belief that you will be able to gather more than you plan for the next month so that you can cover up the balance of last month.

In such a case, I don't see that as consistency, as I view consistency as the process of doing a particular thing constantly, nonstop, until the purpose of that thing is achieved without even bridging any of the set-out plans along the way.

[JayJuanGee]

Planning is the first stage of anything that is associated with consistency. It is following the plan that is called consistency.   DCA is itself a plan and following your DCA is the consistency.

I get your point, but I don't see consistency as just following your plan, as plans can be followed in different ways. Let me say, for instance, that I have a plan to accumulate 1 Bitcoin before the end of one year, and initially I strategize to buy another 0.08335 before the end of every month. In the first two to three months, I was able to achieve that, but because of some kind of personal issue, you decided to shift out the amount you want to accumulate this month, but with the belief that you will be able to gather more than you plan for the next month so that you can cover up the balance of last month.

In such a case, I don't see that as consistency, as I view consistency as the process of doing a particular thing constantly, nonstop, until the purpose of that thing is achieved without even bridging any of the set-out plans along the way.

With that example that you gave Nwada001, there could be adjustments of the timeline in order to accommodate that some circumstances had changed, so maybe there is a realization that the goal might take 14, 16 or 18 months rather than the initial 12 months might not have been as realistic as it had been originally thought to be.

Persistence and consistency are also two differing concepts.

[Macoach]

Planning is the first stage of anything that is associated with consistency. It is following the plan that is called consistency.   DCA is itself a plan and following your DCA is the consistency.

I get your point, but I don't see consistency as just following your plan, as plans can be followed in different ways. Let me say, for instance, that I have a plan to accumulate 1 Bitcoin before the end of one year, and initially I strategize to buy another 0.08335 before the end of every month. In the first two to three months, I was able to achieve that, but because of some kind of personal issue, you decided to shift out the amount you want to accumulate this month, but with the belief that you will be able to gather more than you plan for the next month so that you can cover up the balance of last month.

In such a case, I don't see that as consistency, as I view consistency as the process of doing a particular thing constantly, nonstop, until the purpose of that thing is achieved without even bridging any of the set-out plans along the way.

You've raised a valid point worth considering, but I still find myself agreeing with oduhu. He mentioned that consistency lies in following the plan. For instance, if the plan is to accumulate $1000 worth of BTC by year-end, and I achieve this goal each year using the DCA strategy, then I am consistent. The specific methods I use to reach that goal within the year might vary due to trends or economic factors, but the important part is maintaining the consistency of achieving that $1000 worth of BTC annually.

[armanda90]

Consistent is a word that seems easy to do, but in practice it is sometimes very difficult, especially when we don't have an organized plan. To be honest, I want to be more flexible in this regard, it doesn't mean I'm inconsistent, but in reality I sometimes have to divert the money that I intended to do DCA for more urgent needs.
For the nominal problem, I believe we have different abilities, and in the midst of that difference I still work hard to always make purchases.
Oh yes, we also have to distinguish between working hard to achieve something and forcing ourselves to achieve something. There are times when we have to think about that, because it is not uncommon for people to think they are working hard, when in fact, they are pushing themselves.

Not wrong with your opinion exactly how to keep consistent accumulate in daily day or weekly for investing in Bitcoin, not all investor have the same abilities actually after pandemic covid 19 and right now I face with recession era, have much debt have to pay when cut off my salary during pandemic and as possible keep consistent spent few percent of my salary for accumulating in bitcoin and my debt payment. I don't think problem with small or bigger amount but consistency needed if want earn profit one day later with our investment keep accumulate bitcoin in daily day.

Right now, all money receiving from side job I use for accumulating bitcoin every day and most thanks full since bitcoin drop around $16k I have accumulate and more profitable if sell today but keep holding until bitcoin touch higher price above $60k.

[Dictator69]

You do seem to be mixing up your definitions a bit, so I am not sure if I am going to be able to pound the proper way of thinking about the matter into your head.

A more strict DCA approach is going to largely be price agnostic................

Another thing is that maybe this person has his budget pretty well figured out and his emergency fund is good, .............which is 1) lump sum 2) DCA, 3) buying on dips.................only one of the categories.

You have abled to pound the whole definitions and differences nicely in my mind because now I totally understand what makes DCA strict one and fancy one. Totally got the idea and thanks for the easy explanation too. Really appreciate.

PS: just thinking the advice like the three options you mentioned in the second scenario which are Lump sum, DCA and buying on Dips. I mean no offense, but do you also follow these same norms of investing. Means, aren't you are sharing VIP tips to everyone.

Well one of the ONLY ways that DCA really works is if you have some level of confidence that the asset in which you are investing is going to have periods in which it goes up in..........

Got it.

Strict DCA is not concerned about price.  When you are concerned about the BTC price you are engaging in buying on dip strategies... not DCA.. ........

I already got this point as you explained it with examples in this same reply, Now I understand what strict, soft or hybrid DCA means.

Oh great. .thanks for the link.  I see that there is no real article.. just the chart... but still at least it shows a possible place that the chart might have come from.

Yeah, I was also looking for an article to read more explanation about the graph but sad I did not find any so I think sharing it might help but still some explanation is must for people like me. Thanks a lot, to you for helping for solving confusions.

[Odusko]

Planning is the first stage of anything that is associated with consistency. It is following the plan that is called consistency.   DCA is itself a plan and following your DCA is the consistency.

I get your point, but I don't see consistency as just following your plan, as plans can be followed in different ways. Let me say, for instance, that I have a plan to accumulate 1 Bitcoin before the end of one year, and initially I strategize to buy another 0.08335 before the end of every month. In the first two to three months, I was able to achieve that, but because of some kind of personal issue, you decided to shift out the amount you want to accumulate this month, but with the belief that you will be able to gather more than you plan for the next month so that you can cover up the balance of last month.

In such a case, I don't see that as consistency, as I view consistency as the process of doing a particular thing constantly, nonstop, until the purpose of that thing is achieved without even bridging any of the set-out plans along the way.

With that example that you gave Nwada001, there could be adjustments of the timeline in order to accommodate that some circumstances had changed, so maybe there is a realization that the goal might take 14, 16 or 18 months rather than the initial 12 months might not have been as realistic as it had been originally thought to be.

Persistence and consistency are also two differing concepts.

DCA planning and timing are vital in our journey into achieving success in our bitcoin investment,  this model have taught a lot of investors a maximum level of lessons and also helped to build knowledge on how to study the market to take advantage of every market condition, persistency in your  DCA vs timing are the roadmaps to arriving at a positive destination on the long term base,  and at such,  to be at a safer side during such period,  you need to adjust higher your buy the DIP and HODL more Bitcoin along the way down since at that level you will have opportunities to buy at the low price.

And also apply the DCA at the top which is to exchange from Bitcoin to the USDT and hold more dollars when the price is at the top,  wait for the price to touch down again and buy back.
But such a model also has its own risk and that is why sometimes as an investor you make some adjustments in both your capital holdings and time adjustments.

[Odohu]

Planning is the first stage of anything that is associated with consistency. It is following the plan that is called consistency.   DCA is itself a plan and following your DCA is the consistency.

I get your point, but I don't see consistency as just following your plan, as plans can be followed in different ways. Let me say, for instance, that I have a plan to accumulate 1 Bitcoin before the end of one year, and initially I strategize to buy another 0.08335 before the end of every month. In the first two to three months, I was able to achieve that, but because of some kind of personal issue, you decided to shift out the amount you want to accumulate this month, but with the belief that you will be able to gather more than you plan for the next month so that you can cover up the balance of last month.

In such a case, I don't see that as consistency, as I view consistency as the process of doing a particular thing constantly, nonstop, until the purpose of that thing is achieved without even bridging any of the set-out plans along the way.

Planning have an ultimate goal which is the target. In the example you gave which is accumulating 1 BTC in 12 months, the target is 1BTC and the process of achieving that is the plan. The process is not cast in stones as there can be unforseen circumstances, such as you mention,  that could make you adjust a little. But as long as the target is achieved, to me the plan worked. You cannot say because something happened along the line and you made some adjustments to counterbalance it, then you are not consistent in following the plan. Even in economis, for every law propounded, there is always the clause: "other things being equal".

Persistence and consistency are also two differing concepts.

You are absolutely correct and that is what Nwada001 seems to be mixing up. By definition, persistence means pushing through when obstacle arises while consistency means building and following a process, that is repetitive in nature, in order to achieve a target.
Putting it together with respect to his example, it is persistence that is needed to sustain the plan even in the midst of challenges. If I want to accumulate 1BTC in a year with my monthly Salary, and I decide to set aside say 50% of it monthly to achieve that, if perhaps along the line I got another cash from other source that is up to the 50% and decided to double the amount of buying for that particular month, we cannot say I did not follow my plan again. In this case, the plan just got a boost. The target is always the goal while the time can vary a bit.

[bitLeap]

To be honest, I want to be more flexible in this regard, it doesn't mean I'm inconsistent, but in reality I sometimes have to divert the money that I intended to do DCA for more urgent needs.

That happens to me quite a bit... and that is one of the advantages of already projecting out your cashflows in advance so you can see exactly how much you may have allocated for certain things, and if you have some flexibilities in your incoming or outgoing amounts, you will already know from which areas that you might take from first, second third, and then pretty soon you might have had some plans about some amounts that were strict, but then you realize that it is better that you reduce your DCA or maybe even bring it down to zero for a certain period of time than to resort to some other less preferable actions, which might be selling some asset that you do not want to sell, including but not limited to BTC... there should be an order to these things that you have mostly already thought through and you have some ideas about how flexible you are able to be in light of how well you have planned it out and maintained some flexibilities in your system.

That's what I mean by flexibility, I feel that even with a well thought out plan, sometimes I still have to change things up a bit because of certain situations that make me have to. It's funny that the DCA that we do has to be sacrificed by selling it like you said. It's better for me to do other things, including allocating the money that I should have used for DCA for unavoidable or urgent needs as I said earlier.

For the nominal problem, I believe we have different abilities, and in the midst of that difference I still work hard to always make purchases.

Exactly.  You can have strictness and flexibility going on at the same time... even if you have set aside $400 per month and/or $100 per week for BTC buys, you might already know that there is going to be some variance in that amount, but then you might even tell yourself that "no matter what (within reason)" I am going to at least buy $10 per week.

we can set an amount at the beginning, but in practice it can be bigger or smaller than the plan we thought of at the beginning. I'm not emphasizing just when I have an unexpected problem, but I can apply it when I have some money that I can allocate. For example, in a week we plan $100 per week, but at times we can only allocate $10 per week (or a smaller amount). And in other situations I can allocate more than $100 a week (or a larger amount). And that is something that is comfortable (in my opinion), not only can we be consistent, but we also apply flexibility well.

Oh yes, we also have to distinguish between working hard to achieve something and forcing ourselves to achieve something. There are times when we have to think about that, because it is not uncommon for people to think they are working hard, when in fact, they are pushing themselves.

These are not easy to know in the moment and frequently it takes experience to better understand boundaries (or thresholds) that we might have, and if we might have gone too far in something that goes from being aggressive and/or assertive and into the lands of gambling.  .., and it can sometimes be o.k. to cross over into some places that we might not want to go, but we have to realize also whether we might still be able to achieve some of the same desires for risks or whatever, but just take a bit of a smaller position size for that particular part of what we might be trying to do.. for example, we might go over budget on something or we might even decide to be overly whimpy on something... but if we think about why we are doing it and what are the consequences, then at least we have potentially been able to get some of the benefits of modifying what we had thought that we were going to do, but to modify it in such a way that accounts how much of a position we using in order to take those actions.

In any case, experience is invaluable, and this is no exception when it comes to realizing the points I mentioned earlier. I didn't realize it right away either, but it has been a long process for me to be able to say things like this.
And if we talk about risk, or the consequences of what we do, then it is very clear that everything has that risk, whether it is a small risk or a big risk. and again it is experience that helps us determine whether the risk is worth taking or we should avoid it.

[Patrol69]

Planning is the first stage of anything that is associated with consistency. It is following the plan that is called consistency.   DCA is itself a plan and following your DCA is the consistency.

I get your point, but I don't see consistency as just following your plan, as plans can be followed in different ways. Let me say, for instance, that I have a plan to accumulate 1 Bitcoin before the end of one year, and initially I strategize to buy another 0.08335 before the end of every month. In the first two to three months, I was able to achieve that, but because of some kind of personal issue, you decided to shift out the amount you want to accumulate this month, but with the belief that you will be able to gather more than you plan for the next month so that you can cover up the balance of last month.

In such a case, I don't see that as consistency, as I view consistency as the process of doing a particular thing constantly, nonstop, until the purpose of that thing is achieved without even bridging any of the set-out plans along the way.

It is very common that you make a plan and within a certain period of time you implement that plan but in between some time your actions to implement that plan are erratic. It is normal for this to happen in terms of personal needs or family needs. I think the big thing is whether we have been able to implement our plan on time. In one month I may need a lot of money and in that month I must deposit some less amount than the specified amount but in the next month when my need of money is less but the amount I kept less in the previous month will be kept in the same amount in the next month as well as the money of the previous month. I can keep in this case that my needs are met and my plans are implemented at the right time.