Back from vacation to find the corn has crashed a little, but not enough to make me buy more than my DCA amount. Below 20K, I will be tempted (but then there is the issue of the fiat onramp again, annoying).
So it seems that you are mostly employing DCA techniques to accumulate BTC, and not too frequently employing buying on dip practices, and I have found the opposite kind of practice to be the case with myself.
Sure sometimes the techniques can kind of overlap.. because if any of us might have a certain amount of money coming in, then we may well be motivated to buy some BTC with the money once it stacks above a certain level that we may not feel comfortable keeping in fiat.
My first few years in bitcoin, I practiced quite a lot of DCA, but then it seems to me that since about 2017, I have mostly ONLY been buying on dips... and probably one of the few times that I feel that I got back into a bit of DCA would have been recently during our June 2022 to January 2023 period of being quite a bit below the 200-week moving average.. and I did not quite get into full fledged DCA because I was also replenishing my own reserves that were also being dedicated to buying on dips.. so sure if we would have stayed below the 200-week moving average longer during that time, then I may well have found myself more aggressively getting into DCA practices.
You might consider that now that we are below the 200-week moving average again that I might want to start to reconsider DCA again, and sure it is possible that maybe I will, depending on if we might stay down here for a while, but from my June 20, 2023 Binance-related error, I had put the excessive cash from that error into buying on dips, so my having had done that contributes a bit towards some disinclination to DCA.. since quite a few of those buying on dip orders have been getting filled.. at least from $30k-ish and down to $26k-ish so far.
Another thing that might differentiate us is that since about 2013 or so (when I got into bitcoin), I have not really been in the higher earner (or even overall building of my investment portfolio) stage of my life, since I had already built most of my investment portfolio over the 25 years or so prior to 2013.. so that could also contribute to why I remain a DCA advocate for newbies but I am not really employing too much of that for myself since about 2016-ish.. except in kind of special situations, as I already mentioned.
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Please JJG, we talked more than enough in the past regarding the bet. You can scroll up all our conversation. I wanted to bet for a ‘significative’ amount, not ‘peanuts’. You asked for time but didn’t get back then (and waiting more time help you to see where the market goes..). I don’t have the exact number, but I think you were able to bet than BTC will never go below 16Kish. But stop on it, enough talked about it, and too late now. Useless.
Get out of here. Even though we talked about some potential terms, we did not even get close enough to solidifying any kind of an agreement on the terms in order for you to really suggest what they were going to be by the time we would have locked in a bet. The bet gets locked in based on market conditions and beliefs at the time that the bet is made (agreed to by both), not at the time that it might have been originally proposed, when market conditions might have changed during the discussions...
Regarding my last post, I didn’t say I know more than everybody,
I was referring to my sense of your tone, you little twat.
not that my tone in this here case is much better.. hahahahhahaI just exposed facts since 2 years and you seem globally agree.
Yes.. it seems that you attempted to present some facts, but there were several places where that rendition of facts was lacking in objectivity.. and there is no need for us to go through and parse every piece because it does not even matter that much. You can present you spin however you like. I give little shits, and I already merited that post for its overall rendition of quite a few various "facts," even though I did not agree with several parts of it, but I still concluded that you had done a decently enough job presenting them.. and furthermore part of my reason for mentioning my disagreement of aspects of your tone had to do with my not wanting to send a signal that I agreed with all things in that post or that "you did a great job" blah blah blah..merely because i merited it.
In other words, I find you to be a bit of an annoying little twat and also not generally presenting matters very fairly, but in that post, it seemed to be decently well, better than some of your other nonsense, and merit worthy in the sense that even people who might not know you would have not been lured too far off the beaten path based on whatever various spins that I had sensed that you were making therein.
We can be right, we can be wrong but according to these facts, any ‘early’ BTC investor/believer cannot be really surprise IMHO.
Sure. We likely cannot be and should not be surprised for what has happened so far up until now, but you had also been placing a certain kind of attempt at a doom in terms of where you seem to be suggesting where we might be going too, but you framed your assertions in such an amorphous (and non-specific) way that it seems to me that you are largely just attempting to set up the situation in order that you can end up being a soothsayer because of the vague ways in which you were suggesting where the BTC price might be going from here.
Another thing, once the BTC price goes somewhere, the of course, it becomes easier to proclaim that anyone should have known that it was going to go there blah blah blah.. so it seems a bit overly vindictive to suggest that people are dumb for having some level of disbelief about where we are currently at versus where they thought that we would be... and in any event you seemed to have had been largely just making up this group of "so called disappointed" ones in order to make fun of some of the suffering of those who might have had been overly bullish..
..and surely you are not the only twat who engages in that kind of behavior... but hey, do what you like.. it is not that egregious of behavior, even if I find it to be somewhat annoying.. but you have a right to be yourself.. so do whatever you want...if you think that it makes you feel good to call people dummies for not sufficiently preparing for down, then whatever.. go ahead... but I can still suggest that makes you seem like you wanting to describe ur lil selfie as if you are smarter than everyone else..
Based on the BTC history + timing + oversold and FTX collapse, I would say there is High chance than the bottom is in.
But to know if we will DEFINITELY bounce from 25Kish or if we will visit again 20/22K or even 16/18K for some (quick) moments, ofc nobody can know.
I don't have any problem with this kind of an assessment/characterization regarding where we might go based on where we have been (and/or current facts on the ground).
Large target could be between 16 and 30K for some more months.
Of course, those lower amounts, even below $22k-ish in terms of a spike down, are not out of the question, but they seem difficult to consider in terms of a "base case".. another thing is that I might wel l need to consider my don't wake me up zone away from $25k-$35k, but I am still reluctant to do that without actually breaking the "don't wake me up zone" and so if we continue to gravitate at the lower end of that zone, then sure it could end up breaking down and out of the zone,
..so whether I might need to reestablish my own thinking about the zone before it breaks is another question, and really I doubt that I am really changing anything that I do, but surely it could affect ways that I talk about where we are at and where we might be going... in the shorter term.. maybe within the next couple of weeks and maybe even through the end of the year or a bit further down the road.. but personally, I frequently find it difficult to get into talking about subsequent legs prior to seeing where the current leg might go.
That’s why DCA from there can be a good balance risk/reward till the REAL up.
This is not really clear.
Perhaps you mean "DCA from here?" which I would agree with that. If you are saying DCA from there, then I would need to now what "there" would be.
Poll
