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Author Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL!  (Read 76188 times)
Greyhats
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September 13, 2023, 01:46:06 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #2901


Save bitcoin for the next 10 years by means of DCA accumulation I think it would be better.
Let's say you put in $25 for the next two years then increase it again to $50 and so on until you have the financial ability to put in even more, don't think about price movements then you go through the halving which will come in 2024 and you will Past the halving in 2028 I think you will have more Bitcoin in your portfolio.

While thinking about this method, I will try to continue without looking at other views.

This is really good advice and similar to my journey, yr2 dca was 1.5 times yr1, and every year it increased. It takes a bit of getting used too and when extra money appears you can consider your dca as a place to park it. The main point tho is get going  Cool
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September 13, 2023, 09:00:31 AM
 #2902

Current Bitcoin price.

The price is going up and I believe it will still come down to $25-100 because the way the price is going up, it is not going up at a good speed. But I believe that before this month kicks off maybe the price of Bitcoin will hit $28k, although the price has been in the $28k range and above but has still come down to $25,948.02, so I guess this is the right time to invest in the dip. This month of September, Bitcoin is moving like this. I am not sure if this opportunity might come again because it has been in this range for over a week. That's why I suggest buying and accumulating more in this present period will be better, believing that the month of October will be different than this present month.

R


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Wind_FURY (OP)
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September 13, 2023, 09:31:04 AM
 #2903

#Bitcoin    Impulsive Move Nearby. 🚀

The extremely low volatility we are witnessing right now is not something new in #BTC    cycles. It usually lead to impulsive moves.

Pay close attention to the 2nd dip in green 🟢.
In 2016, the crossover after the dip led to an impulsive move to the upside. The same thing occurred in 2019.

The 2nd dip just occurred in 2023.

I know many are expecting a red 🔴 September with a deeper pullback. Yet in markets, as i told you EOY 2022, when too many people are expecting a scenario to occur, each and every time the opposite happens.

Let's see how it plays out this time.
I'll keep you posted. 🫡


Source link


Shower thought. We might also see another "COVID-19 pandemic-like crash", probably caused by bad macro-economic conditions that would finally make inflation drop in many regions at the cost of their economies. Massive lay-offs, slow-growth, recession and stagnation everywhere. BUT what is the cure?

 Cool

The money printer. Perhaps another situation that could coincide with the Halving?

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September 13, 2023, 12:42:32 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #2904

We have the bitcoin halving to look forward to! It is always sure to skyrocket Bitcoin's price. It's up to anyone who wants to sell. I'll be on my chair watching the market while others sell. All I know my Bitcoin is a great long term hold for my future!
Save bitcoin for the next 10 years by means of DCA accumulation I think it would be better.
Let's say you put in $25 for the next two years then increase it again to $50 and so on until you have the financial ability to put in even more, don't think about price movements then you go through the halving which will come in 2024 and you will Past the halving in 2028 I think you will have more Bitcoin in your portfolio.

While thinking about this method, I will try to continue without looking at other views.
Many people have increased their portfolio with the DCA strategy and I am one of them, although I put in a small amount in my DCA, but I really feel the benefits of what I am doing. It's a small amount that can be said to be money left over from the basic needs that I have to fulfill first from the amount of my income.

Maybe I wouldn't have experienced this if I didn't know this strategy, because I would have thought how to invest bitcoin with big money. But with relatively small money for investors like me, this strategy is very helpful when I invest in bitcoin.

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Dickiy
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September 13, 2023, 02:38:35 PM
 #2905


Having a strategy and not rushing into things is important. I'm always thinking about the future, and I don't believe in investing just for quick profits, especially with Bitcoin. I like that many people here focus on long-term goals. One reason I don't invest a large sum all at once is because it's better to start early when you have the money and not wait for the huge capital to be there. If I try to save up a big amount to invest later, I might end up spending it on something else. So, I prefer to invest $100 from each paycheck, spreading it out over 3-12 months. This way, I can accumulate more Bitcoin over time.

Well that's right guys, maybe there are some players who come without having any strategy and they might just see what other people have managed to get (big profits), I think that can really encourage them to enter this investment world, especially in bitcoin. But well I say maybe they will just throw money away if they come without bringing any fishing gear, I mean it's pretty stupid if you come with strong determination but not based on knowledge, while any risk can really happen to them (big losses).
I feel pity for anyone that jump into the Bitcoin market without a plan, you'll likely run into problems quickly. It's not a good idea to start investing in Bitcoin without knowing a lot about it and figuring out a strategy that suits you. Investing in Bitcoin isn't like being john wick you're not invincible. If you make bad choices and don't have a good investment plan, you'll end up losing your money bit by bit, and before you know it, you could lose everything.

Well, it's a concern, but we can't really give them direction because they might not accept it at all and they might say that it's their money so it's up to them. That might come out of their mouths. And well starting an investment without any planning I would say they are very brave for a stupid or careless decision, as you said they will run into problems quickly and indeed this is the beginning of the problem. It's like making trouble for yourself because you are too desperate with a good goal (profit) but the wrong way (without knowledge).

Well obviously it's not a good action if you come only focused on one word "profit" and without doing or reading all the books in the library related to bitcoin to understand all the positives and negatives that are there. Good planning is very necessary, you want to make a profit? that means you have to create various plans to avoid losses there so that your calculations match what has been targeted before. Yes that's right guys, no matter how strong you are in the real world it does not mean you are invincible or will never lose in investing, this is a serious matter of how good your planning is. And yes the point is as we discussed this, if you want to profit it means your planning must be good, study seriously, do market research,
create your best strategy based on your market research experience there, prepare a strong mentality and use money that is supposed to be for future needs and now you already know where to develop money like a hill, namely in bitcoin.
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September 13, 2023, 04:09:53 PM
 #2906

Current Bitcoin price.

The price is going up and I believe it will still come down to $25-100 because the way the price is going up, it is not going up at a good speed. But I believe that before this month kicks off maybe the price of Bitcoin will hit $28k, although the price has been in the $28k range and above but has still come down to $25,948.02, so I guess this is the right time to invest in the dip. This month of September, Bitcoin is moving like this. I am not sure if this opportunity might come again because it has been in this range for over a week. That's why I suggest buying and accumulating more in this present period will be better, believing that the month of October will be different than this present month.
With the way many people are spectating on the price of Bitcoin is really not doing enough good, Some persons has one or more things to say about bitcoin on how the price will skyrocket in a specific period of time and which are we to believe, all this are from one's point of view.
I believe in less prediction and no particular range at which anyone can accumulate Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin can skyrocket at any point in time even during your sleep you can wake to bitcoin new ATH. So if we have enough to invest, why not we do it now than set a range at which we feel is much comfortable to buy
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September 13, 2023, 07:40:10 PM
 #2907


I feel pity for anyone that jump into the Bitcoin market without a plan, you'll likely run into problems quickly. It's not a good idea to start investing in Bitcoin without knowing a lot about it and figuring out a strategy that suits you. Investing in Bitcoin isn't like being john wick you're not invincible. If you make bad choices and don't have a good investment plan, you'll end up losing your money bit by bit, and before you know it, you could lose everything.

In fact, there are still those who do this especially for beginners because what they see first is the results obtained by others (who are successful) but they don't know how the process others do which makes them tempted by false shadows where the condition is in some shitcoins that actually plunge them themselves.
We must realize that before we start to do something at least we have to do something, of course we must have a view which we will make as a guide material so that what we do remains on the right path. Likewise with investing in bitcoin, of course we must be in a truly adequate plan because our goal is not to destroy ourselves and that preparation starts with us learning how bitcoin works, how the consequences and worst possibilities are in bitcoin and determining what strategies we should do when in bitcoin.
The discussion in this thread if you look closely from the beginning to page 146 there are currently a lot of schemes and strategies that must be done even though we have now agreed that DCA is the most possible and comfortable thing to do.
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September 13, 2023, 07:40:59 PM
 #2908

I don’t see what you’re saying as a different perspective, maybe you can help me understand this. My perspective is trying to understand if it’s a dip and should I buy into it. I think for your perspective what is important is who caused the dip and why did it dip. My perspective doesn’t need to consider any of these points because the impact(if any) is baked into the dca avg price trend month on month.
I was simply pointing out to you that the events of next year such as halving, Grayscale ETF and other ETFs that have the chances of being approved are major events that will make 2022/2024 price profile different from 2023/2024 price profile.

As to what’s going to happen in the future if you have some way to show you know what’s going to happen I’m all ears. Tell me when it’s going to go up to an a new ATH please. Grin
No one can tell for a certain when price will rise and to what extent it will but we use historic data to predict the future. Any time Bitcoin halving happens, there was always a new ATH as price shifts aggressively. So, I expect the same outcome from next year's halving. This is just the basis of my assertion. 

If this is not cogent to you, I wonder if you actually believe that Bitcoin price will ever rise and what you think will make it to rise.

R


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September 13, 2023, 09:41:47 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #2909

That's the point I want to make in this case, even though in the end everyone has some views and lum slump is also the way of some people but if we really want good results then focus on being in a strategy that has a very high chance of being with DCA because in the end when we are at the starting point for investment DCA is one of the strategies and methods that are very good to do and it has been tested by some of our predecessors who have done the same strategy so in this case DCA is like a good benchmark especially for beginners.

It does not mean that we should not do lum slump like some other people who do it but it is better to focus on the most possible conditions for ourselves now. I don't have any problem if other people do lum slump because they also have their own strategies but for us as people who can be said to be new, it would be better to do the DCA strategy because this has a better probability for us as a beginner in bitcoin.

Having a strategy and not rushing into things is important. I'm always thinking about the future, and I don't believe in investing just for quick profits, especially with Bitcoin. I like that many people here focus on long-term goals. One reason I don't invest a large sum all at once is because it's better to start early when you have the money and not wait for the huge capital to be there. If I try to save up a big amount to invest later, I might end up spending it on something else. So, I prefer to invest $100 from each paycheck, spreading it out over 3-12 months. This way, I can accumulate more Bitcoin over time.
Looking at what you said at the beginning of the sentence and at the end, I actually think it has a contradiction.
You say having a strategy and not rushing is a must-have but on the other hand you want to try first by investing $100 every time you have a salary and dividing it into several months.
Honestly, I don't really understand your current strategy whether you want to try to do DCA or lum slump like my discussion with @Baby Shoes before.
I don't consider it a mistake but I think you should start trying to be clearer in your investment scheme especially if the goal is DCA.

It does not mean that we should not do lum slump like some other people who do it but it is better to focus on the most possible conditions for ourselves now. I don't have any problem if other people do lum slump because they also have their own strategies but for us as people who can be said to be new, it would be better to do the DCA strategy because this has a better probability for us as a beginner in bitcoin.
I will do a lum sump when..... Getting a bonus from work, being able to cover the cost of necessities from the month's salary and not disturbing the emergency fund, I will do lum sump that way.

But now I will not force it, I will continue to persevere in the DCA strategy and this is probably the most practical that has been used by many people like us. So continue with the DCA strategy, there are other strategies that I will consider when I have more money.
If you feel that it is convenient then it is back to yourself but in this case the main focus should still not be lost where the DCA that is your goal from the beginning must still be carried out properly and not get interrupted at the time and amount that you have agreed with yourself at this time.
I agree with what you said in the last paragraph where indeed DCA is one of the right investment instruments for those of us who have minimal funds because apart from we can add to our portfolio it also does not interfere with money for other needs every month from the income we have from salaries because the investments we make are already in the DCA budget plan from our needs.

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September 13, 2023, 10:16:32 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #2910

Current Bitcoin price.

The price is going up and I believe it will still come down to $25-100 because the way the price is going up, it is not going up at a good speed. But I believe that before this month kicks off maybe the price of Bitcoin will hit $28k, although the price has been in the $28k range and above but has still come down to $25,948.02, so I guess this is the right time to invest in the dip. This month of September, Bitcoin is moving like this. I am not sure if this opportunity might come again because it has been in this range for over a week. That's why I suggest buying and accumulating more in this present period will be better, believing that the month of October will be different than this present month.
Hello rachael9385 the advice you gave is good enough to continue buying in the dip and holding in the long term. Everyone will take advantage of this moment to accumulate more BTC and of course we all have the same hope, namely expecting prices to be different in the coming months. Apart from accumulating BTC at the current price, of course you also have to make purchases in stages to accumulate Bitcoin. Falling and rising always happen and at the same time we can buy BTC at different price levels.

I think in this thread those who bought had the same goal of holding it long term. In fact, some of them are not too interested in aggressive investment techniques in accumulating BTC because they aim for cheaper prices in all their entries by doing it with DCA.

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September 14, 2023, 08:47:53 AM
 #2911

But now I will not force it, I will continue to persevere in the DCA strategy and this is probably the most practical that has been used by many people like us. So continue with the DCA strategy, there are other strategies that I will consider when I have more money.
If you feel that it is convenient then it is back to yourself but in this case the main focus should still not be lost where the DCA that is your goal from the beginning must still be carried out properly and not get interrupted at the time and amount that you have agreed with yourself at this time.
I agree with what you said in the last paragraph where indeed DCA is one of the right investment instruments for those of us who have minimal funds because apart from we can add to our portfolio it also does not interfere with money for other needs every month from the income we have from salaries because the investments we make are already in the DCA budget plan from our needs.
Yes, we must be able to stick to what we have planned at the beginning, and indeed I have also felt that inconsistency makes everything fall apart, although I felt it was not in terms of investing, but after what I experienced I came to believe that something we started we had to finish, or in other words we must be consistent.

It can be said that we really benefit from this kind of strategy, we are not led to allocate a large amount to have a number of bitcoins, but if there is a will, we can do it with smaller money, which is in accordance with our abilities as someone who wants to have a better future of course.

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September 14, 2023, 01:00:25 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #2912

Today.  Which one would you rather be?  The one who has 20 BTC has much greater profits 3x more profits since his cost are only around $333 per BTC as compared to the one with 100 BTC and a cost that is 3x higher per BTC.  Total portfolio value is $520k for the one with 20 BTC and $2.6 million for the one with 100 BTC.
I will rather be the second guy who used DCA to accumulate 100BTC because it is an easy way for you do accumulate without facing many challenges on the price movement of bitcoin. The only challenge that someone using DCA method is when the source of income is not steady, but if it is, you will worry less because you are sure of accumulating a significant amount in a long period of time. Another thing that I observe is that those that prefer to buy at the dip, are not prepared to increase the number of their portfolio with a significant amount because nobody knows when bitcoin price will dip. But they think it is the wisest strategy unknown to them that the dip will come like a thief in the night, when they have spent the money, they intend to use because they have giving up on waiting for bitcoin price dip or an unforeseen circumstance came to devour the fund planned to use for DCA. This is the reason why I said that they are like people that are not prepared or ready to invest due to the current price of bitcoin at that moment.

On the other hand, an investor that has made up his mind to DCA weekly or monthly has set his goals and has also prepared to keep on buying bitcoin disregard of the price at any given period. This shows more commitment to investing than the one that only buy during the dip. If while you are DCAing and the price of bitcoin dips, It is also an advantage for that person to increase his order because he is ever ready to accumulate. Someone that uses DCA method is open to use all strategy to accumulate bitcoin than, as long as he has a bitcoin target within a period of time. Someone who buys at the dip, he is only open to buy at the dip, which is a weak strategy to use to reach your bitcoin target within a given period of time because the market movement controls when he buys.

R


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September 14, 2023, 01:29:54 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #2913

Frequently I have brought up an example of someone who might have lump sum bought BTC in 2015, and s/he bought 20 BTC for around $6,660 (so the average price per BTC is around $333), as compared with someone who might have ended up buying more regularly and more frequently and spending $100k in order to buy 100 BTC between 2015 and 2019 with an average cost of $1k per BTC

Today.  Which one would you rather be?  The one who has 20 BTC has much greater profits 3x more profits since his cost are only around $333 per BTC as compared to the one with 100 BTC and a cost that is 3x higher per BTC.  Total portfolio value is $520k for the one with 20 BTC and $2.6 million for the one with 100 BTC.
Looking at the price history in 2015, the bitcoin price range was $300 - $400 when the price was still low, but unfortunately I was not in the bitcoin environment at that time because I had only just recently become acquainted with bitcoin and delved deeper into it.
I wonder if DCA was more popular at that time than it is now? That's not a problem because someone must have done it.

Currently it is impossible for the price to return to baseline, for us buying bitcoin units is not possible due to limited finances, so the right way is DCA with a few dollars input, say $20 - $50 for now because it is still possible for me to spend that much money for bitcoin, the rest can still be covered by the necessary needs.

Well buying more regularly is much better than a lump sum.

What is clear is that I choose a lot of bitcoin. Grin
Talking $333 per BTC we will never experience that again, right? But you just gave an example from the past, and now I think just relying on a $20K drop then I can increase DCA during that price range to get more satoshis.

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September 14, 2023, 04:45:22 PM
 #2914

As far as I know, when some big company or organization tries to enter the Bitcoin market it crashes down to give them a better opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at a low price. This is pure manipulation but this has happened before.
Anytime you say…
This goes beyond anytime as sometimes, the motive could be to buy. With big companies in the picture, your expecting huge buys that could lead to a slight pump in price with a higher demand of bitcoin.
If the reverse is the case where you have them selling, there you could talk about a slight dump.

I tried to put half of my order in advance and keep half in hand in case it dips down more i will have some left in my hand to lower my average. My order is around the 20k level and if the price crash further down i will not buy any more until it touches 15k which won't happens i think. Actually, it doesn't matter what i think i just made some planning for my investment strategies and won't change it until there is some unusual scenario occurs.
Having to place an order to execute at the $20k price isn’t a bad idea as, it executes for you without you focused on the chats and you won’t get to miss the price mark but, you get to realize this is you having to leave your money on an exchange. Even still, there isn’t any much assurance that price might dump to that price and you would be loosing on the value you would have got them from that money should bitcoin continue to pump as, you would definitely have your coin in an altcoin, maybe stable coin at that.

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September 14, 2023, 09:11:52 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #2915

We have the bitcoin halving to look forward to! It is always sure to skyrocket Bitcoin's price. It's up to anyone who wants to sell. I'll be on my chair watching the market while others sell. All I know my Bitcoin is a great long term hold for my future!
Save bitcoin for the next 10 years by means of DCA accumulation I think it would be better.
Let's say you put in $25 for the next two years then increase it again to $50 and so on until you have the financial ability to put in even more, don't think about price movements then you go through the halving which will come in 2024 and you will Past the halving in 2028 I think you will have more Bitcoin in your portfolio.

While thinking about this method, I will try to continue without looking at other views.
Many people have increased their portfolio with the DCA strategy and I am one of them, although I put in a small amount in my DCA, but I really feel the benefits of what I am doing. It's a small amount that can be said to be money left over from the basic needs that I have to fulfill first from the amount of my income.

Maybe I wouldn't have experienced this if I didn't know this strategy, because I would have thought how to invest bitcoin with big money. But with relatively small money for investors like me, this strategy is very helpful when I invest in bitcoin.
I agree with you on the DCA strategy, as that it the strategy I intend using to accumulate more bitcoin to my bitcoin portfolio as a newbie. On Tuesday, I took a bold step to my buy first bitcoin, you can see it here
I am very excited and I have prepared myself towards a very long bitcoin journey based on when I reach my bitcoin target. I have a job at hand, and I have assigned 10% of my monthly income for DCAing consistently till I reach my bitcoin target. I have thought deeply of how I can be able to make my bitcoin journey easy and successful during my accumulation period and the most possible way is through DCA.

This is the reason why I have come back to the thread to become active so that I can be on the same page with experts on how a newbies can grow his bitcoin portfolio using the right method. I love the DCA method of accumulating bitcoin because it will motivate you to always be ready to buy, no matter the price of bitcoin, because at the long wrong, you will still be able to make profit.

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September 14, 2023, 09:28:26 PM
 #2916

This channel dip feels like 15-16k at the end of last year. Am buying deep into it atm
Buying at a price that is too deep will not always be good because you will not get what you want to buy. If you hunt for Bitcoin at that price this year I think it will be difficult for you to get it, but if you don't really mind buying Bitcoin at the $25K level and holding it while waiting for a higher price, I think that's quite logical and very possible for you to do now.

So don't waste your time waiting for a lower price if you have the ability to buy at the current price, because in my opinion the current price of Bitcoin is not that expensive and maybe the opportunity to buy at the current price will not come twice this year, Moreover, next year the price of Bitcoin is predicted to experience a much better increase than this year.


I think you are not understanding what I posted. At no point did I say I was waiting for a lower price. I was saying that this dip feels like the same buying opportunity that presented itself to us in the 15-16k dip. I’m allocating more buying $ at this level on top of any dca I’m doing.

Well I quite understand what you are saying my friend, basically every market participant has his own way to invest wherever it is. Okay maybe you are one of those who are always patiently waiting for significant bearish conditions to then open an investment, and well that is indeed quite good if you can patiently wait for the moment. Honestly, I'm not saying that's the case, and maybe most market participants will do the same thing, especially for long-term targets. 

And yes I agree with the opportunity you said, because indeed now is the right moment to then buy or collect more bitcoin, we can see now bitcoin is experiencing a price correction and the price is now almost touching support a few months ago. So basically if indeed you have the ability financially to then allocate a little of your money for bitcoin then I would say this is the right moment that you can take, but well I hope you will use money that might not be at risk if it is lost, because as we know the market is very volatile so at any time you can experience losses if the market is not in your favor. You use DCA, I agree to this because I think this is a strategy that is more supportive of your financial condition and with DCA it is safer.

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September 14, 2023, 10:36:55 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #2917

Well I quite understand what you are saying my friend, basically every market participant has his own way to invest wherever it is. Okay maybe you are one of those who are always patiently waiting for significant bearish conditions to then open an investment, and well that is indeed quite good if you can patiently wait for the moment. Honestly, I'm not saying that's the case, and maybe most market participants will do the same thing, especially for long-term targets. 

And yes I agree with the opportunity you said, because indeed now is the right moment to then buy or collect more bitcoin, we can see now bitcoin is experiencing a price correction and the price is now almost touching support a few months ago. So basically if indeed you have the ability financially to then allocate a little of your money for bitcoin then I would say this is the right moment that you can take, but well I hope you will use money that might not be at risk if it is lost, because as we know the market is very volatile so at any time you can experience losses if the market is not in your favor. You use DCA, I agree to this because I think this is a strategy that is more supportive of your financial condition and with DCA it is safer.
In fact, it is impossible for them to miss this bearish moment to accumulate BTC. Yes, every opportunity that comes is an advantage that can be exploited. If you throw away this opportunity, it means you are throwing away the opportunity to get BTC at a low price. For me, financial strength is one of the things that can make you act more aggressively in a bearish situation, but if our finances are not too strong then the wiser option is of course DCA.
 Some strong arguments about this decline are due to the issue of FTX which will sell their BTC holdings which has made the market situation change rapidly in recent days. This is a profit that can be obtained for those who are patient in waiting for bearish conditions to accumulate BTC. Well, on another point, it remains sustainable for the long term and you can feel comfortable with the profits that come your way, keep buying at low prices whatever strategy you use. keep buying and holding.

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September 14, 2023, 11:39:13 PM
 #2918

[edited out]
Looking at what you said at the beginning of the sentence and at the end, I actually think it has a contradiction.
You say having a strategy and not rushing is a must-have but on the other hand you want to try first by investing $100 every time you have a salary and dividing it into several months.
Honestly, I don't really understand your current strategy whether you want to try to do DCA or lum slump like my discussion with @Baby Shoes before.
I don't consider it a mistake but I think you should start trying to be clearer in your investment scheme especially if the goal is DCA.

I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying Ryu_Ar1.. but it just seems that you might be suggesting that there are ways to really be active in DCA beyond merely just figuring out how much for each period and applying it..

Accordingly, I would suggest that anyone who is trying to strategize with buying on dips for part of his/her income that is allocated to buy BTC is not engaging in pure DCA, and there really is nothing wrong with supplementing a DCA strategy with some variation of buying on dip.

Remember a pure DCA would strictly be looking at how much income you have coming in and what are your expenses (including making sure that your emergency fund is covered), and then whatever that is left over would be used to buy BTC, so the weekly, monthly or twice a month amount may well differ depending upon variation of cashflow and variation of expenses. 

Now if a conscious choice is made to ONLY spend part of what is left on buying BTC right away, and the other portion is used for buying on dips, then there is no longer a strict DCA practice going on, and there is nothing wrong with deviating from a strict DCA as long as you realize that part of what you are doing is DCA and the other part is attempting to strategize to buy on dips.

So I think that part of my point is that anyone who is trying to strategize in regards to his/her DCA is applying some kind of a variation of DCA.. and there is really nothing wrong with that.

I think in this thread those who bought had the same goal of holding it long term. In fact, some of them are not too interested in aggressive investment techniques in accumulating BTC because they aim for cheaper prices in all their entries by doing it with DCA.

You can still be aggressive when employing DCA.

The more that you know your budget and the better established your emergency fund, then the more aggressive you can be.  One of the problems is that sometimes people confuse aggressiveness with a kind of gambling so being reckless in terms of not having an emergency fund, so maybe there are questions of whether your cushion in your funds is enough to cover your expenses for 3 months or for 6 months, and sometimes, guys might make choices to become more aggressive for a short period of time and to reduce their cash cushion from 6 months to 3 months, and therefore end up investing the extra 3 months of emergency fund into bitcoin, and sure that is risky and it is aggressive, but and even if it might be on the edge of high aggressiveness, it might not end up being overly aggressive in the sense of causing a person to get reckt, even if he has decided to spend some money on bitcoin that he usually has as his cushion and/or his emergency fund... those  are very calculated kinds of risk, that a person might think through and decide to make them because he has good ideas about what he is doing and putting at risk.. and maybe even having some ideas about how long it might take to replenish that fund in the future.. 3-6 months?  maybe a year?  those are pieces of information in his specific calculation to which he should be able to know the answers.

Frequently I have brought up an example of someone who might have lump sum bought BTC in 2015, and s/he bought 20 BTC for around $6,660 (so the average price per BTC is around $333), as compared with someone who might have ended up buying more regularly and more frequently and spending $100k in order to buy 100 BTC between 2015 and 2019 with an average cost of $1k per BTC

Today.  Which one would you rather be?  The one who has 20 BTC has much greater profits 3x more profits since his cost are only around $333 per BTC as compared to the one with 100 BTC and a cost that is 3x higher per BTC.  Total portfolio value is $520k for the one with 20 BTC and $2.6 million for the one with 100 BTC.
Looking at the price history in 2015, the bitcoin price range was $300 - $400 when the price was still low, but unfortunately I was not in the bitcoin environment at that time because I had only just recently become acquainted with bitcoin and delved deeper into it.
I wonder if DCA was more popular at that time than it is now? That's not a problem because someone must have done it.

I did most of my DCA into BTC between November 2013 and early 2017.. . .and I did a bit of DCA after 2017 too.

DCA has been a popular strategy for a long time, and of course, those of us following BTC discussions are able to have a lot of sources for financial information, and surely some of those sources are better than others because sometimes a person might be talking about trading rather than DCA.. and surely people can get distracted away from DCA, even though there is a lot of good information that is available for the ones who are able to make sure that they don't get distracted into bad (or less good) BTC accumulation strategies... but at the same time, the best of strategies might not even be strictly DCA, so any one of us has to figure out which strategy works for our own circumstances.. and sometimes even if we might start out with DCA, after a few years of doing a more strict version, we might end up converting into some kind of  a more personally tailored version that is more suitable to our circumstances, and we also might be able to learn more about ourselves in the earlier years in order to know how to tweak our DCA strategy or whatever variation of DCA that we might end up following... Through most of 2014, I used to call my DCA strategy to be a kind of front-loading DCA strategy, even though the strategy that I was following did have some buying on dip attempts and it also did end up contributing to my buying BTC throughout all of 2014, so that I was feeling quite a bit under water through almost all of 215, when BTC prices were much lower than my average cost per BTC.

Currently it is impossible for the price to return to baseline, for us buying bitcoin units is not possible due to limited finances, so the right way is DCA with a few dollars input, say $20 - $50 for now because it is still possible for me to spend that much money for bitcoin, the rest can still be covered by the necessary needs.

Well buying more regularly is much better than a lump sum.

One thing that is so great about DCA is that you can figure out for yourself, and sure, if you end up getting a $500 to $1k bonus once or twice a year, then you are going to have options regarding how you choose to spend that $500 to $1k extra when it comes in, and you may well end up choosing to buy BTC with it right away rather than spreading out your BTC purchases.. It is not always an easy choice to figure out how to employ extra cash when it comes in.. especially if you feel that you don't frequently come across extra cash. but the more you go through with buying BTC regularly, at some point you might decide that you are going to divide that lump sum into three parts in order to allocate 1/3 towards each (Lump sum, DCA and buying on dips), and then there might be some other times in which you feel that you want to strategize your purchases to buy on dips, and you might divide the lump sum into 3, but instead keep it all in one category, which is to buy on dips.. so you might buy 1/3 right away, and then the 2/3 to buy after a $1.5k drop in price if it happens and the 3/3 part, you might assign to buying that amount upon a BTC price drop of 4,680.

Those are your choices, and it seems to me that the more BTC that you get, the less stressed that you are in regards to buying BTC right away with your extra cash, and you become more wiling to set your BTC buy prices and just wait for the BTC price to come to you, and hopefully you are not too greedy in the places where you set your purchase prices, because if you already have enough BTC, the you are not worried about the BTC price going up because you already have enough BTC.

What is clear is that I choose a lot of bitcoin. Grin
Talking $333 per BTC we will never experience that again, right? But you just gave an example from the past, and now I think just relying on a $20K drop then I can increase DCA during that price range to get more satoshis.

Yes, it is a bit easier to draw from historical prices in order to show how two different practices might have had played out differently, and surely none of us should consider that it is realistic to even be considering that $333 BTC prices are even possible (or likely), even though there are non zero chances that they could occur, but we should not be structuring our BTC buying plans based on outlandish scenarios rather than more likely scenarios... and the same is true for sub $20k, not very likely but possible and surely more possible than $300 and even more possible than sub $10k.. and surely se might never see BTC prices below $26k ever again, so these kinds of used to be prices versus where we are at now are sets of probabilities, and even if we might try to be somewhat prepared for very extreme scenarios, our base case preparations should be attempting to prepare for more likely scenarios rather than outlandish scenarios that may well not even end up happening. 

and each of us has to figure out our level of preparations and how much cash do we keep available for those "just in case" scenarios rather than just investing regularly and perhaps just having a small portion of our overall cashflow that is set aside and staggered down for some of the outrageous scenarios that may well likely never happen, and for me, these days, after having had been in bitcoin for nearly 10 years, I am way more prepared for outrageous scenarios than I was when I first started in BTC, even though I had already come to bitcoin with more than 20 years of investing experience (and building up of an investment portfolio) so I had already had money that I had prepared for outrageous scenarios, but in the 1990s I did not have as many cash reserves as I had in the 2010s... so some of the building up of cash reserves comes (or should come) with the passage of time and experience to build the reserves that each of us has in each of the categories as we establish our various kinds of holdings (and investments) into differing things.

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September 15, 2023, 12:49:58 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #2919

In fact, it is impossible for them to miss this bearish moment to accumulate BTC. Yes, every opportunity that comes is an advantage that can be exploited. If you throw away this opportunity, it means you are throwing away the opportunity to get BTC at a low price. For me, financial strength is one of the things that can make you act more aggressively in a bearish situation, but if our finances are not too strong then the wiser option is of course DCA.
It would be a shame if an opportunity to achieve something better is just wasted by some people who don't believe in winning through profits when they have more Bitcoin. If you look at financial strength, maybe not everyone has financial strength at the same level, so it is also true that some people with low financial strength can use DCA to get Bitcoin in bearish moments like now. That is quite the right solution, but I see that there are still some who don't want to use this as an option to get Bitcoin when the bearish situation is happening.

Quote
Some strong arguments about this decline are due to the issue of FTX which will sell their BTC holdings which has made the market situation change rapidly in recent days. This is a profit that can be obtained for those who are patient in waiting for bearish conditions to accumulate BTC. Well, on another point, it remains sustainable for the long term and you can feel comfortable with the profits that come your way, keep buying at low prices whatever strategy you use. keep buying and holding.
Apart from the many arguments that are currently being made regarding market conditions, I also prefer the argument that you express that in the event of the FTX issue, everyone should be very prepared to face bearishness by making DCA purchases in Bitcoin. Although I also don't know how long people will hold it after buying at low prices, but overall it would be great if everyone would take advantage of the bearish moment by buying more before they see a bullish market in the market which could possibly happen after this year.

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September 15, 2023, 07:10:52 AM
Merited by Gozie51 (2), Jegileman (2), JayJuanGee (1)
 #2920

Today.  Which one would you rather be?  The one who has 20 BTC has much greater profits 3x more profits since his cost are only around $333 per BTC as compared to the one with 100 BTC and a cost that is 3x higher per BTC.  Total portfolio value is $520k for the one with 20 BTC and $2.6 million for the one with 100 BTC.
I will rather be the second guy who used DCA to accumulate 100BTC because it is an easy way for you do accumulate without facing many challenges on the price movement of bitcoin. The only challenge that someone using DCA method is when the source of income is not steady, but if it is, you will worry less because you are sure of accumulating a significant amount in a long period of time. Another thing that I observe is that those that prefer to buy at the dip, are not prepared to increase the number of their portfolio with a significant amount because nobody knows when bitcoin price will dip. But they think it is the wisest strategy unknown to them that the dip will come like a thief in the night, when they have spent the money, they intend to use because they have giving up on waiting for bitcoin price dip or an unforeseen circumstance came to devour the fund planned to use for DCA. This is the reason why I said that they are like people that are not prepared or ready to invest due to the current price of bitcoin at that moment.

There is no beed emphasizing too much on the benefits of having a large Bitcoin reserves and it potential profits merging compared to having just few bitcoin, i was DCA with almost 100% of my monthly income before,  because have hard free supplied of almost everything and leaved in my parent house, so it was so easy for me to put down all my earning into for my Bitcoin accumulations for some time almost 2 year accumulations with 100%all in funds that speed up my accumulation process, and within that time i have hard series of profits increases in proportion to my total accumulated amount of Bitcoin.
But few months ago i started living in my own apartment, and since then my Bitcoin accumulation has dropped below 30% of my monthly earning,s, and taken records of my profits merging within that space of time, it can't be compared in any way with what I use to earn as profits when I was all in 100% monthly, which is normal considering the amount I am investing in Bitcoin at the current stage.
But all the same, the DCA approach has become one of the most useful Bitcoin accumulation tools that have helped many investors to be able to accumulate Bitcoin all the way down while taking chances in the various discounted prices presented by Bitcoin from time to time.

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