Buy the DIP, and HODL!

[adultcrypto]

Your strategy to emphasize on buy and hold for long term when it comes to Bitcoin and ignore short term noise is generally considered a sound and effective approach. However, it is also important to remain patient and refrain from monitoring daily market prices and charts. Continuously observing these fluctuations can lead to emotional stress and may tempt us to make impulsive decision that deviate from long term financial goals.

You should agrre with me that everything that has an advantage also has its disadvantages, we cannot stop from embracing daily speculations on bitcoin market because that's one of the quality that shows we are traders or investors, but we should apply caution not to get fully carried away with the illusion from what we do and get the wrong result, we can also as well work by the past history on bitcoin, compare each season from you each other, work inline with them and creates time to also develope our own personal foresights through the research we make, which is not the reason why we should depend on single entry to get our best results when making an investment, there are times we have to be dynamic and makes it appears more of diversification in techniques used to achieve the maximum result.

Checking the marketing every day to know the market sentiment when you already have a system in place is just exercise in futility. The emotional stress that you will get is not worth it. It is looking like you are deviating a little from the focus of this discussion. Just @Sayeds56 said, what we should be focused on is to buy and hold and checking market sentiment everyday may not be too effective way of going about it.

I am not in anyway condemning short term trading because there are also people doing well in it. But base on what we are discussing here, checking market sentiment daily when you are focusing on holding for long is not in supportive of our discussion.

[1714889923]

1714889923

[1714889923]

1714889923

[Salahmu]

You should agrre with me that everything that has an advantage also has its disadvantages, we cannot stop from embracing daily speculations on bitcoin market because that's one of the quality that shows we are traders or investors,

Yeah actually in as much as speculation maybe full of assumptions and uncertainty but in one way or another we derive motivation from those speculations, because Bitcoin price speculation helps to remind us that our plans for chosen to accumulate Bitcoin for investment is the best idea, you could imagine the kind of joy you would  have when everybody talks highly about Bitcoin and how big the price will become in the future were as you have accumulated a good amount of Bitcoin in your portfolio, perhaps even knowing the good potential of Bitcoin in the future through speculation you will be reminded that you made a good decision on holding Bitcoin.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

It's not about me. I was merely asking a question.

I doubt that I was making it about you.  If I say, your ideas suck, or if I say that you keep saying that the BTC price is going down and you seem to be against buying and you seem to be for waiting.. then I am not talking about you, I am talking about your ideas... even if I might frame my response in a way that might seem to be attacking you personally, that's not my intention.

The fundamentals are projecting that there could be a recession/crisis and therefore a possbility of a crash of all markets because there's simply less and less money in the system caused by rate hikes and QT.

Yes.. you already made that point clearly, and it may well be true that a recession comes and/or various asset classes end up crashing, but that still does not necessarily mean that bitcoin buying should be put off in order to see how that might play out... especially for folks who might not have any or much BTC.

Now for guys likely you who have been stacking for more than 7 years, then maybe you can afford to wait for dips because you have enough BTC to be somewhat prepared for UP, even if you are hanging onto some of your cash, just in case the BTC price goes down or for other emergency expense reasons as you also stated to be another one of your reasons to be hanging onto some cash, yet at the same time, you are not selling your bitcoin and you have a certain amount of bitcoin that helps to prepare you for up.. so it is not like you are not prepared in both directions, even if you are talking doom and gloomy and talking about waiting rather than buying with whatever extra cash that you have built up since the last times that you bought.

BUT all we see is markets are not reacting in the way how the fundemantals says it should. One of them is probably "lying". Who? The fundamentals or the markets?

From my perspective, you are still overly focusing on macro factors and presuming BTC correlation. .or even presuming that bitcoin might go down before it goes up.. so even if the various macro markets might continue to be inflated and due for various crashes, whether talking about the stock market, properties and other bubbles, that does not necessarily mean that bitcoin is not the place to be.. even though surely we have seen in the very short term (like a liquidity event similar to March 2020), all assets seemed to have had been flocking to the dollar, and sure that can happen again.

So you can have some funds available to prepare for those kinds of possibilities.

And, yeah, you also hinted that Bitcoin might stay crashed or under performing for longer periods of time based on such macro happenings, which may or may not play out in the way that you are describing as a possibility.. .

Sure it does not hurt to prepare for a variety of scenarios, even including the ones that you describe, but it still does not necessarily mean that we should be waiting to buy bitcoin rather than just merely adjusting our buy amounts and frequency of buys depending on our own various specific that may well also relate very much to how many BTC that we are already holding.

[edited out]

Ok... I gave my opinion.

I am describing with vagueness and with hypothetical on-purpose, and I think that the overall point is that there are a variety of ways that mistakes can be made - e....................... such as I had some coins on BTC-E in 2016/2017 and then also with Bitfinex in 2016, and some of the direct transactions that I made had some losses involved with coins not going through, wrong amounts, sometimes scandalous (or opportunistic behaviors of others... so maybe some of my own mistakes might be framed as having had gotten involved at all, even though there is some value that comes through having experiences, and surely, there could be worse mistakes that involve buying and selling behaviors.. or other kinds of portfolio management that might come from transacting and then figuring out whether and when replacement might need to occur.. which I am not even going to suggest to have had been day-trading).

Feel sorry to hear that you lost your amount in Bitfinex and in BTC-E. I did not know about any BTC-E exchange but now I do know about it, I am confused to read that, it was a Russian exchange/trading platform then why did they place or choose the servers located in the USA? Well, that's another story. And you do have good points that, there would be worse possible incomes from which you have been saved by luck and with experience. We all learn from such mistakes.

But I am trying to not make those mistakes, instead, I'll learn it from the wounded lion (legendries) like you.  

I made conscious decisions to leave value with both Bitfinex and BTC-e.. .. and there were times in which I changed my mind about how much BTC I was keeping with various third parties, and also coming to find out about how easy sim attacks make people vulnerable .. and they are still going on now... but in 2017, they were less common, but I probably should have realized a bit better regarding the sim swap attack vector.. .. so then if something like that ends up happening, there are ways to change some approaches in order to make funds less vulnerable to that attack vehicle, even though, sometimes, some funds might still be vulnerable through other attack mechanism.

the BTC portfolio had doubled in value, so 100% profits, and so if we are looking at 2017 and 2018 and BTC prices thereafter, the 20 BTC continued to stay above the $20k invested, ...............and sure there could be whining about "I could have had 40 BTC, but wha wha wha, I only have 20 BTC", but what good is that going to do?..

Maybe through the next 6-7 years, the BTC holdings goes from 20 BTC to 25 BTC, and maybe more value is injected during that time (maybe another $40k-$60k in order to get 5 more BTC?.. or maybe ONLY an additional $5k is injected to get from 20 BTC to 25 BTC that keeps the average cost per BTC to remain at $1k-ish), but there also could be thoughts that "I am never going to get back to 40 BTC," but where was the "emergency" exactly?  

Well, that's human nature to whine about the losses and profits which was not there. I mean, we should accept our fate and be happy with what we have but there will always remain a feeling of, I had it. We can overcome this feeling by controlling our nerves and being happy with what we have and how to move forward with that. Of course, saying it seems easy but not for those who have to follow it.

Some losses are BIGGER than others, and frequently there are ways to protect yourself even when taking risks, but one of the things about risks is that we don't always realize some of the risks that we are taking or we assign the wrong values and might end up with losses from which are more difficult to recover... financially and/or psychologically...

Sure a short time during the losses of going down from 40 BTC to 20 BTC, there could have been feelings of loss and emergency.. but there also could be feelings of futility in trying to get the value of the lost 20 BTC back or the waste of time and energy to even think about getting back 20 lost BTC,

You are right, the emergency situation did have a bad impact on mental health and the victim is forced to take bold actions that he doesn't want to. Like he can sell his remaining 20 BTC to face the emergency state. Or some part of it. However he focused on increasing that number of BTC from 20 to 25 BTC. And even in that scenario if he still loses those 5 BTC then he will definitely be broken by heart.

He must have lost hope and have no motivation, but the profits will encourage him.

There are a lot of ways that people go through and deal with losses, and surely if all of the value was ONLY in BTC, then there might be more devastation.. but if the person had various other non-btc investments (such as stocks, properties, bonds and cash) that might have had been equal to 20 or 30 BTC at the time that s/he lost the 20 BTC, then there still is a nestegg of value in some other location.. so the loss in terms of half of the BTC portfolio might seem large in the short term, but there are various other reserve assets in other places... so such loss is not totally devastating.. only partially devastating.. and I also described a scenario in which the overall dollar value of the BTC portfolio did not even effectively bring down networth for vary long because the BTC price had been going up so much at the time.. . so then the loss ends up playing out more like opportunity costs rather than actual losses in networth that lasted...

one of the funny things about bitcoin (or maybe any other greatly appreciating asset, that sometimes very large mistakes can be made, but mostly HODLers/accumulators still can end up making money, even if they might have made less money from their mistakes, they still can end up making money in some kinds of scenarios, as long as they don't get totally reckt, and this case, holding onto half of the BTC was part of the explanation for the devastation not being as bad as it could have had been.

No problem... Just needing to remember what we were talking about...

Well, the funny thing is, I am still replying late, and just to remind you, now we are talking about emergency funds and the mistakes that leads a man to make decisions that cost them a lot in the future.

ok.

..and yeah, of course, some mistakes are worse than others and more difficult to recover from than others... so there could be some instances in which any of us might feel that we are in a short-term emergency status, but hopefully, we are able to get into a state in which we are NOT in an emergency status for any kind of period of time that last for than a few months .. ........... but my own circumstances never did rise to that level of emergency status,

I am happy that you never faced such emergency situations and always have an alternative source of income to deal with the lose and the emotional pressure on yourself that you will get from the value of the loss. This indicates that a person with no job or source of income should not start their journey in BTC until they have some 1 or 2 sources of income. Because that's the only way he can survive the hits of the market or hits from scams.

I surely am not of the perspective that anyone should be waiting... but instead if such person does not have an emergency fund in place and does not have very many back up resources, then s/he can still invest into bitcoin, but just take a smaller position size while s/he is working on shoring up various ways to draw from emergency funds.  

So my own perspective is that there is likely needs to get started in bitcoin as soon as possible, while at the same time, if there are various things messed up in your regular life, then likely you need to be both working on shoring them up and also making sure that you are not taking any kind of large BTC position size.. so maybe instead of investing $100 per week into bitcoin, you only invest $10 per wee into bitcoin and use the other $90 per week to get your other shit together.. and so maybe it takes you 1-2 years before you can get your shit together sufficiently enough that you can move your weekly investment size up to $100 per week, but in the meantime, you had been investing $10 per week while you were putting in order other aspects of your financial and psychological life.

So I think that it is better to error on the side of getting started bitcoin sooner rather than later, even if you have various messes in your life that you simultaneously having to actively work upon.

Do I buy a brand new laptop or do I buy a used one or do I repair my current one, and sure sometimes even with the laptop there can be considerable differences in prices, yet there might not be enough utility to spend $6k on a laptop versus spending $600, and sure it would be nice to have......................

That's a progressive mindset, I have this mindset. I always try to think before making investment or buying things especially. Because if we buy things that become a liability later and might cost us, like what if that $6k worth laptop is damaged and, on its repair, I have to spend more money because the laptop is expensive. Overall, my cost will increase my expectations, so I have to play under the sources I have.

that sounds right.

I might even decide to put it in my investment ideas thread.. but yeah, I haven't posted it yet.

Yeah you shared this link before I have bookmarked it already and will read it.

PS: to be honest, I got diverted when I see your big replies and my energy just said, do not read it just read other threads. Hehe. I am not saying anything bad about your post just telling the reason of the late reply on this post. Today, I was free and thought that I should read your reply in full and reply to it.

Sorry to cause so much work upon you.... hahahahaha.....yeah.. sometimes there are no real needs to respond further.

[bitLeap]

You should agrre with me that everything that has an advantage also has its disadvantages, we cannot stop from embracing daily speculations on bitcoin market because that's one of the quality that shows we are traders or investors,

Yeah actually in as much as speculation maybe full of assumptions and uncertainty but in one way or another we derive motivation from those speculations, because Bitcoin price speculation helps to remind us that our plans for chosen to accumulate Bitcoin for investment is the best idea, you could imagine the kind of joy you would  have when everybody talks highly about Bitcoin and how big the price will become in the future were as you have accumulated a good amount of Bitcoin in your portfolio, perhaps even knowing the good potential of Bitcoin in the future through speculation you will be reminded that you made a good decision on holding Bitcoin.

that at first we believe bitcoin may be due to assumptions or speculation and also the analysis we do on the future of bitcoin. It's impossible for us to immediately believe in bitcoin when we just got to know it, right?
The motivation you say from speculation that others say makes us more excited. And we can also see how many people end up having to panic because of spculation that says bitcoin is smething bad and has no future or that says bitcoin is a scam. It proves that this does affect bitcoin holders, especially those who are new to bitcoin.

[GigaBit]

You should agrre with me that everything that has an advantage also has its disadvantages, we cannot stop from embracing daily speculations on bitcoin market because that's one of the quality that shows we are traders or investors,

Yeah actually in as much as speculation maybe full of assumptions and uncertainty but in one way or another we derive motivation from those speculations, because Bitcoin price speculation helps to remind us that our plans for chosen to accumulate Bitcoin for investment is the best idea, you could imagine the kind of joy you would  have when everybody talks highly about Bitcoin and how big the price will become in the future were as you have accumulated a good amount of Bitcoin in your portfolio, perhaps even knowing the good potential of Bitcoin in the future through speculation you will be reminded that you made a good decision on holding Bitcoin.

that at first we believe bitcoin may be due to assumptions or speculation and also the analysis we do on the future of bitcoin. It's impossible for us to immediately believe in bitcoin when we just got to know it, right?
The motivation you say from speculation that others say makes us more excited. And we can also see how many people end up having to panic because of spculation that says bitcoin is smething bad and has no future or that says bitcoin is a scam. It proves that this does affect bitcoin holders, especially those who are new to bitcoin.

You can't believe in anything until you go through deeply. Trust in Bitcoin will only come when one can gain a holistic knowledge in Bitcoin. Who are outside of this concept, Bitcoin may be only a minor currency. They may consider only for a trading tool for the time being. There is a wide difference in opinion between bitcoin believer and who doesn't want to trust Bitcoin. We want to hold Bitcoin for the long term because we dream of getting a reliable return in the future. When the price of Bitcoin rises temporarily, Our confidence is unwavering, we pursue our long term goals and when it falls, we have the opportunity to further increase the portfolio by using DCA.

[rachael9385]

Is there really a way to use news to predict the price of Bitcoin? Have you tried it before and predicted it correctly through the news? Well, it is obvious you are suggestion panic buying and probably selling too as you will not hesitate to sell when the news does not seem favorable. In all honesty, this is akin to gambling!

Unfortunately, looking at the news to be able to predict Bitcoin price is not really necessary because, by the caption of this thread, we are buying and holding for long. Therefore, our main focus is how to accumulate as many Bitcoin as we can possibly get while being able to hold for long without being compelled to sell haphazardly.

Absolutely not, there is no way to correctly predict Bitcoin price overtime. While news items and technical analysis can provide into market sentiment, but they are far from fool proof. Technical analysis is not a perfect science, it is science of probability that relies on historical trends and patterns, which may not necessarily repeat in future.

The most effective and widely recognized strategy is to accumulate Bitcoin by employing DCA , as frequently discussed here. Additionally opportunistic purchasing during significant dips can further lower average cost of investment.

Based on my experience with DCA, focusing too much on the price tends not to be good for me. Because the current movement is a temporary or short-term movement, while I aim to hold bitcoin in the long term. Maybe this is good because we can buy a lot at the lowest price, but when our goal is long-term then we should focus more on the strategy we are doing.
Accumulating bitcoin with DCA is our goal to be able to benefit when bitcoin shoots back up to reach its previous ATH or even exceed it.
It's a comfort for me when I don't think too much about the current price. Because my goal is not the next week or month, but a long term that does not know when I will achieve my long-term goals.

Planning to hodl your coins for the long term is a good start and I also support you not focusing on the price as you want to hodl for the long term. Using the DCA method to accumulate is a good strategy and that should be where you should focus on. While a price move up and down, while focusing on Bitcoin's price, you might end up stopping accumulation or selling your coins. People who hodl for the short term might have the idea of risking their funds for the long term, but based on the way they focus constantly on the Bitcoin price movement, they end up selling in the short term.

[Roseline492]

It's impossible for us to immediately believe in bitcoin when we just got to know it, right?
The motivation you say from speculation that others say makes us more excited. And we can also see how many people end up having to panic because of spculation that says bitcoin is smething bad and has no future or that says bitcoin is a scam. It proves that this does affect bitcoin holders, especially those who are new to bitcoin.

People who are new to Bitcoin can easily be vulnerable or influence by speculation or bad news against Bitcoin, let's take for instance a beginner who has less knowledge about Bitcoin and just started accumulating some good amount of Bitcoin for holding and perhaps he heard people saying all kinds of awful things about Bitcoin that the price is crashing or Bitcoin price will not do well in the future, you will see that after the beginners had listing to those negative speculation his mindset and emotions or passion he has for Bitcoin will be seriously affected were as he start panicking and sell off his accumulated Bitcoin, so perhaps we should focus on positivity and shouldn't allow speculation influence our perception on accumulating Bitcoin.

[Sophokles]

You should agrre with me that everything that has an advantage also has its disadvantages, we cannot stop from embracing daily speculations on bitcoin market because that's one of the quality that shows we are traders or investors,

Yeah actually in as much as speculation maybe full of assumptions and uncertainty but in one way or another we derive motivation from those speculations, because Bitcoin price speculation helps to remind us that our plans for chosen to accumulate Bitcoin for investment is the best idea, you could imagine the kind of joy you would  have when everybody talks highly about Bitcoin and how big the price will become in the future were as you have accumulated a good amount of Bitcoin in your portfolio, perhaps even knowing the good potential of Bitcoin in the future through speculation you will be reminded that you made a good decision on holding Bitcoin.

Investors in the bitcoin market have increased significantly due to its volatile nature. It's highly volatile compared to stock and forex so investors choose bitcoin over stock, forex and gold. It's volatility gives a higher opportunity and is significantly higher compared to the stock and forex markets. Its profit ratio is attractive which attracted most of the investors but the problem is that most of them ignore the risk and take little effort to tackle it. Caculative risk and investment strategy can make you a millionaire in this market but if you make a bet like a poker desk you can be doomed.

[YUriy1991]

You should agrre with me that everything that has an advantage also has its disadvantages, we cannot stop from embracing daily speculations on bitcoin market because that's one of the quality that shows we are traders or investors,

Yeah actually in as much as speculation maybe full of assumptions and uncertainty but in one way or another we derive motivation from those speculations, because Bitcoin price speculation helps to remind us that our plans for chosen to accumulate Bitcoin for investment is the best idea, you could imagine the kind of joy you would  have when everybody talks highly about Bitcoin and how big the price will become in the future were as you have accumulated a good amount of Bitcoin in your portfolio, perhaps even knowing the good potential of Bitcoin in the future through speculation you will be reminded that you made a good decision on holding Bitcoin.

Investors in the bitcoin market have increased significantly due to its volatile nature. It's highly volatile compared to stock and forex so investors choose bitcoin over stock, forex and gold. It's volatility gives a higher opportunity and is significantly higher compared to the stock and forex markets. Its profit ratio is attractive which attracted most of the investors but the problem is that most of them ignore the risk and take little effort to tackle it. Caculative risk and investment strategy can make you a millionaire in this market but if you make a bet like a poker desk you can be doomed.

I think that's normal, especially regarding risk and price volatility. I see that where there is volatility there is always value. It is possible that this condition also makes Bitcoin traders vulnerable to losses due to price movements when trading, but this is not something new for Bitcoin. So, what is the best timing for us to take advantage when prices rise, namely with a long investment position.

[adultcrypto]

It's impossible for us to immediately believe in bitcoin when we just got to know it, right?
The motivation you say from speculation that others say makes us more excited. And we can also see how many people end up having to panic because of spculation that says bitcoin is smething bad and has no future or that says bitcoin is a scam. It proves that this does affect bitcoin holders, especially those who are new to bitcoin.

People who are new to Bitcoin can easily be vulnerable or influence by speculation or bad news against Bitcoin, let's take for instance a beginner who has less knowledge about Bitcoin and just started accumulating some good amount of Bitcoin for holding and perhaps he heard people saying all kinds of awful things about Bitcoin that the price is crashing or Bitcoin price will not do well in the future, you will see that after the beginners had listing to those negative speculation his mindset and emotions or passion he has for Bitcoin will be seriously affected were as he start panicking and sell off his accumulated Bitcoin, so perhaps we should focus on positivity and shouldn't allow speculation influence our perception on accumulating Bitcoin.

I have been a victim of this in my early days in Bitcoin. It was really tough overcoming the discouragement and negativity from friends and colleagues.  Some even told me that the money I was putting in Bitcoin would have been useful for buying shares then. They were actually buying shares then but today those shares are worthless.

The worst one was when I saw a CNN supposed analyst on suit calling Bitcoin outright bubble. Frankly, I was worried at first but found way to calm myself down  after all I have always been a risk taker with inspiration drawn from a statement I saw in a movie "no risk, no reward".

I'm happy I did not give up and to know that they are wrong. While some of those sceptics I called friend are already deep in Bitcoin, having firm grip of their portfolios,  some of them that are adamant are still waiting for us to cry when Bitcoin supposedly fail.  THEY WILL WAIT TILL INFINITY!

[Salahmu]

I have been a victim of this in my early days in Bitcoin. It was really tough overcoming the discouragement and negativity from friends and colleagues.  Some even told me that the money I was putting in Bitcoin would have been useful for buying shares then. They were actually buying shares then but today those shares are worthless.

The worst one was when I saw a CNN supposed analyst on suit calling Bitcoin outright bubble. Frankly, I was worried at first but found way to calm myself down  after all I have always been a risk taker with inspiration drawn from a statement I saw in a movie "no risk, no reward".

I'm happy I did not give up and to know that they are wrong. While some of those sceptics I called friend are already deep in Bitcoin, having firm grip of their portfolios,  some of them that are adamant are still waiting for us to cry when Bitcoin supposedly fail.  THEY WILL WAIT TILL INFINITY!

There is a saying that we should always listen to our hearts and put our energy on the things or investment that keeps us awake all night thinking about on how to start, we should always follow it because it will lead us to the right part, perhaps just like you said imagine if you had listened to what the news was saying about Bitcoin you would completely missed the opportunities due to speculation, this has been the regret of so many person whom were mislead while listening to bad news about Bitcoin and now they wish they had not listen to the news, perhaps that's one of the reasons why knowledge is very important because with knowledge about Bitcoin you are certain of were Bitcoin is heading to in the future and can never be influenced by any speculation or bad news about.

[Wind_FURY]

BUT all we see is markets are not reacting in the way how the fundemantals says it should. One of them is probably "lying". Who? The fundamentals or the markets?

From my perspective, you are still overly focusing on macro factors and presuming BTC correlation. .or even presuming that bitcoin might go down before it goes up.. so even if the various macro markets might continue to be inflated and due for various crashes, whether talking about the stock market, properties and other bubbles, that does not necessarily mean that bitcoin is not the place to be.. even though surely we have seen in the very short term (like a liquidity event similar to March 2020), all assets seemed to have had been flocking to the dollar, and sure that can happen again.

Perhaps, and I'm still learning. BUT what you and many other people might have already read or learned is, it's Bitcoin's first time to exist in a recession environment and although you might be right in that Bitcoin might not be affected if other markets are crashing, I still believe that it's safe to conclude that there's a HIGHER probability that it could crash together with the rest of those other markets.

Would that be a non-biased/impartial presumption?

[Sayeds56]

From my perspective, you are still overly focusing on macro factors and presuming BTC correlation. .or even presuming that bitcoin might go down before it goes up.. so even if the various macro markets might continue to be inflated and due for various crashes, whether talking about the stock market, properties and other bubbles, that does not necessarily mean that bitcoin is not the place to be.. even though surely we have seen in the very short term (like a liquidity event similar to March 2020), all assets seemed to have had been flocking to the dollar, and sure that can happen again.

So you can have some funds available to prepare for those kinds of possibilities.

And, yeah, you also hinted that Bitcoin might stay crashed or under performing for longer periods of time based on such macro happenings, which may or may not play out in the way that you are describing as a possibility.. .

Sure it does not hurt to prepare for a variety of scenarios, even including the ones that you describe, but it still does not necessarily mean that we should be waiting to buy bitcoin rather than just merely adjusting our buy amounts and frequency of buys depending on our own various specific that may well also relate very much to how many BTC that we are already holding.

Your approach to prepare for different scenarios is commendable, and we should consistently accumulating Bitcoin whatever the situation we confront, is a wise advice . However, we need to acknowledge that fundamentals and Bitcoin correlation with stock market does affect the Bitcoin price. The historical performance of Bitcoin since last quarter of 2021 when bullish cycle was coming to end, has vindicated that announcements related to inflation, (CPI), GDP growth rate and interest rate decisions have had note able impact on Bitcoin price, though these effects were tended to be short lived.

[JayJuanGee]

BUT all we see is markets are not reacting in the way how the fundemantals says it should. One of them is probably "lying". Who? The fundamentals or the markets?

From my perspective, you are still overly focusing on macro factors and presuming BTC correlation. .or even presuming that bitcoin might go down before it goes up.. so even if the various macro markets might continue to be inflated and due for various crashes, whether talking about the stock market, properties and other bubbles, that does not necessarily mean that bitcoin is not the place to be.. even though surely we have seen in the very short term (like a liquidity event similar to March 2020), all assets seemed to have had been flocking to the dollar, and sure that can happen again.

Perhaps, and I'm still learning. BUT what you and many other people might have already read or learned is, it's Bitcoin's first time to exist in a recession environment and although you might be right in that Bitcoin might not be affected if other markets are crashing, I still believe that it's safe to conclude that there's a HIGHER probability that it could crash together with the rest of those other markets.

Position yourself according to a variety of possible scenarios in which you already have a plan what you are going to do for each scenario.. . and surely, there might be some movements that go beyond your expectations, but if you have a plan, then you should still be able to tweak your plan in order to account for such deviations versus if you had overly planned for one direction or another.

Would that be a non-biased/impartial presumption?

I doubt that you are as non-biased/impartial as you are trying to make yourself out to be.  So whatever, if you believe that you are largely prepared for any direction, then you will need to live with the consequences... yet it seems to me that you are largely just preparing to say I told you so rather than really preparing for a variety of possibilities, because it really should not matter very much if you end up being right or not in terms of your base case scenario.

From my perspective, you are still overly focusing on macro factors and presuming BTC correlation. .or even presuming that bitcoin might go down before it goes up.. so even if the various macro markets might continue to be inflated and due for various crashes, whether talking about the stock market, properties and other bubbles, that does not necessarily mean that bitcoin is not the place to be.. even though surely we have seen in the very short term (like a liquidity event similar to March 2020), all assets seemed to have had been flocking to the dollar, and sure that can happen again.

So you can have some funds available to prepare for those kinds of possibilities.

And, yeah, you also hinted that Bitcoin might stay crashed or under performing for longer periods of time based on such macro happenings, which may or may not play out in the way that you are describing as a possibility.. .

Sure it does not hurt to prepare for a variety of scenarios, even including the ones that you describe, but it still does not necessarily mean that we should be waiting to buy bitcoin rather than just merely adjusting our buy amounts and frequency of buys depending on our own various specific that may well also relate very much to how many BTC that we are already holding.

Your approach to prepare for different scenarios is commendable, and we should consistently accumulating Bitcoin whatever the situation we confront, is a wise advice . However, we need to acknowledge that fundamentals and Bitcoin correlation with stock market does affect the Bitcoin price. The historical performance of Bitcoin since last quarter of 2021 when bullish cycle was coming to end, has vindicated that announcements related to inflation, (CPI), GDP growth rate and interest rate decisions have had note able impact on Bitcoin price, though these effects were tended to be short lived.

If you like to believe that there is correlation despite the longer term trends, then that is on you.  You seem to have picked some recent data from the last 3.5 years which seems to be somewhat selective and you are trying to tell a story of correlation from that.


If you look at bitcoin in 2018 and 2019 compared to stocks and then you try to graph correlation over that 5-6 year period what do you get?  You get a hell of a lot less correlation because at best, bitcoin is around 3x -8x stepped up from those price points... and yeah you can dance around and try to argue correlation. blah blah blah.. good luck with that.

Now if you add in another cycle and go out another 4 years and you go from 2014 to 2015 and you compare bitcoin and stocks as compared to where they are now, and you have bitcoin around 30x to 50x up from those points, and are you going to want to describe correlation from that data?

We could go back even further and adding another few years (such as looking at 2011-2012(, but sometimes it is not as fair to be going back to data in Bitcoin's very first cycle because bitcoin hardly even had a price, so for sure the correlation is even worse, and it just goes with bitcoin going around 1,000x to 14,000x from then to today.. depending on the starting measuring points.

Yeah, bitcoin has an ongoing unfair advantage over traditional systems because it is still in its early adoption phase which means s-curve exponential adoption rather than the comparing of one mature asset class as compared to another mature asset class, so if you want to continue to make dumb-ass mistakes and try to act as if bitcoin is in some kind of a quasi-mature asset class and blah blah blah, that is your choice to decide to completely ignore that bitcoin is ongoingly likely inside of an early s-curve adoption phase, and even if bitcoin is not guaranteed to continue to prosper within such an exponential s-curve, you are making mistakes by trying to downplay and/or ignore the matter by looking at selective data and trying to act as if correlation exists through your looking at shadows (reflections of reality) rather than at actual light (reality)... but hey, whatever.. you do you.

[Gozie51]

So, what is the best timing for us to take advantage when prices rise, namely with a long investment position.

I think to take advantage of price increase is to DCA as soon as we can determine that resistance has been broken. So the challenge is the certainty we need that the trend has turned upwards because btc is highly volatile and can drop back within 24 hours to return back bear  So my advise to taking advantage of bull ride is to DCA but on a reason that it has been confirmed for bull.

[ajiz138]

So, what is the best timing for us to take advantage when prices rise, namely with a long investment position.

I think to take advantage of price increase is to DCA as soon as we can determine that resistance has been broken. So the challenge is the certainty we need that the trend has turned upwards because btc is highly volatile and can drop back within 24 hours to return back bear  So my advise to taking advantage of bull ride is to DCA but on a reason that it has been confirmed for bull.

So why is it that when we invest in the DCA way, we need resistance and 24-hour price increases or something short? Isn't DCA intended for the long term and not thinking about profits while the target is still long?

When you have the intention to do DCA for years, any price must be bought according to your plan with the DCA method of 1 week - 2 weeks or 1 month at any price to buy.
So with your way of thinking it will hinder where the process in your own DCA let alone about thinking about resistance, market trends, volatility or other factors.

[Moreno233]

BUT all we see is markets are not reacting in the way how the fundemantals says it should. One of them is probably "lying". Who? The fundamentals or the markets?

From my perspective, you are still overly focusing on macro factors and presuming BTC correlation. .or even presuming that bitcoin might go down before it goes up.. so even if the various macro markets might continue to be inflated and due for various crashes, whether talking about the stock market, properties and other bubbles, that does not necessarily mean that bitcoin is not the place to be.. even though surely we have seen in the very short term (like a liquidity event similar to March 2020), all assets seemed to have had been flocking to the dollar, and sure that can happen again.

Perhaps, and I'm still learning. BUT what you and many other people might have already read or learned is, it's Bitcoin's first time to exist in a recession environment and although you might be right in that Bitcoin might not be affected if other markets are crashing, I still believe that it's safe to conclude that there's a HIGHER probability that it could crash together with the rest of those other markets.

Would that be a non-biased/impartial presumption?

The response to this is not far-fetched. Cast your mind back to 2020 market behavior due to the pandemic, what was the response of Bitcoin to that? While several assets crashed including big stocks but that was the beginning of the bull run for Bitcoin. What does this tell you? To make it simple, when every other things else fails, Bitcoin will will always survive. I have the strong conviction that Bitcoin will even enjoy strong growth even if there is a global market crash.

So, what is the best timing for us to take advantage when prices rise, namely with a long investment position.

I think to take advantage of price increase is to DCA as soon as we can determine that resistance has been broken. So the challenge is the certainty we need that the trend has turned upwards because btc is highly volatile and can drop back within 24 hours to return back bear  So my advise to taking advantage of bull ride is to DCA but on a reason that it has been confirmed for bull.

To me, until the next halving, Bitcoin may not reach the all time high. This mean that the price of Bitcoin is considerably fine now to buy. Those who want to take advantage of the low price can do it before the end of this year because when we enter 2024, there will be so much positive news and interest in Bitcoin, this will make it difficult to enter again as it may appear the price is too high. At this point, it is only those using DCA that can buy whereas those waiting for the dips might continue waiting.

[Sophokles]

You should agrre with me that everything that has an advantage also has its disadvantages, we cannot stop from embracing daily speculations on bitcoin market because that's one of the quality that shows we are traders or investors,

Yeah actually in as much as speculation maybe full of assumptions and uncertainty but in one way or another we derive motivation from those speculations, because Bitcoin price speculation helps to remind us that our plans for chosen to accumulate Bitcoin for investment is the best idea, you could imagine the kind of joy you would  have when everybody talks highly about Bitcoin and how big the price will become in the future were as you have accumulated a good amount of Bitcoin in your portfolio, perhaps even knowing the good potential of Bitcoin in the future through speculation you will be reminded that you made a good decision on holding Bitcoin.

Investors in the bitcoin market have increased significantly due to its volatile nature. It's highly volatile compared to stock and forex so investors choose bitcoin over stock, forex and gold. It's volatility gives a higher opportunity and is significantly higher compared to the stock and forex markets. Its profit ratio is attractive which attracted most of the investors but the problem is that most of them ignore the risk and take little effort to tackle it. Caculative risk and investment strategy can make you a millionaire in this market but if you make a bet like a poker desk you can be doomed.

I think that's normal, especially regarding risk and price volatility. I see that where there is volatility there is always value. It is possible that this condition also makes Bitcoin traders vulnerable to losses due to price movements when trading, but this is not something new for Bitcoin. So, what is the best timing for us to take advantage when prices rise, namely with a long investment position.

More volatility means more opportunities to trade. So if you are really good with your trading skills then you can use this as your honey pot. The bitcoin market is not boring unlike stock and forex where the price movement is nominal. If you can manage your portfolio and take calculated risks you can be profitable. If you can't read the chart then buy and hold bitcoin for a few years. You will be profitable as well and we are sitting at the perfect time to invest in bitcoin.

[Roseline492]

When you have the intention to do DCA for years, any price must be bought according to your plan with the DCA method of 1 week - 2 weeks or 1 month at any price to buy.

Of course DCA strategy is mostly for long time holding so I see no reason why price movement or volatility should be considered while using the DCA, it is well known that DCA method is for slowly accumulation either daily, weekly or monthly and also the possibility of the price to remain the same as the first buying point is not guaranteed so if we should consider the price before accumulating it may seriously affect the strategy, so irrespective of the price of Bitcoin DCA strategy can never be affected because DCA goal is not for short time holding but for long time holding.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

More volatility means more opportunities to trade. So if you are really good with your trading skills then you can use this as your honey pot. The bitcoin market is not boring unlike stock and forex where the price movement is nominal. If you can manage your portfolio and take calculated risks you can be profitable. If you can't read the chart then buy and hold bitcoin for a few years. You will be profitable as well and we are sitting at the perfect time to invest in bitcoin.

We are not talking about trading in this thread, so trading may well not be a way to have any honeypot with bitcoin especially since the vast majority of traders suck and historically buying and holding bitcoin has proven to be a quite lucrative approach to bitcoin and there is no real evidence that buying/holding has changed as a good approach to bitcoin.. which you seem to somewhat understand from the contents of your post... in which you are recognizing the current period as a likely dip period.