Buy the DIP, and HODL!

[Justbillywitt]

That's one thing some people who criticise Bitcoin don't understand, they'll make errors that would make them lose their coins and then call it a scam, instead of admitting their mistakes and take corrections, in Cryptocurrency space, especially Bitcoin investment, if you do things the right way you'll thrive but if you do others you lose and that's just it, asides Cryptocurrency, greed has been the downfall of many and they don't learn, you don't have to be too greedy to achieve success and it applies to Bitcoin investment too, cause greed can make one vulnerable to scammers that would easily mislead one into the wrong investment and before you know it their coins would be gone then they start blaming it on Bitcoin forgetting it's their actions that caused it. Doing the right thing pays, and when one picks the right choice of investing in digital currency (Bitcoin) you don't ruin it by being too greedy.

Such incidents are still happening in many countries. There are many countries that do not have a general idea about cryptocurrency. That is why many scammers easily loot a lot of money from the country's unemployed people by tempting them to earn a lot of money in a short time and very easily. In South Asian countries, people often encounter various scam companies, these companies lure people to invest by falsely promoting crypto tokens, later they fail to get the desired results.

There are even many countries that still cannot differentiate between crypto scams and gambling company scams. Especially in countries where the number of unemployed is high and crypto is illegal, scammers continue their activities very easily. Although they are basically victims of scams while gambling, they blame cryptocurrency due to lack of knowledge.

Promoting Bitcoin is also one of the difficult tasks, especially in such countries. Without proper knowledge they will use Bitcoin to get rich quick and when they face loss they will call Bitcoin a scam even they say that. So I think knowledge is the first thing that is important. Without knowledge you will consider Bitcoin as a scam too.

Even in the developed countries you will still find people that are falling victim to scams on daily basis. So I don't think it's wise to generalise an entire country in this regard. Even in those countries where you are making references to, there are still people who can't fall for scam. They are well enlightened. One thing I see that makes people fall for scam easily is greed. And if you can't control your greed level, there is no amount of bitcoin knowledge that can fix that for you. Once your greed level is very high, you can easily be scammed. Countries around the world are enlightened about bitcoin already. But when you can't control your urge for urgent money you will go for everything that appears as a shortcut to make money, without doing proper background checks.

I agree with you using the DCA method when the process of collecting Bitcoin will certainly provide an opportunity to continue to get more bitcoin for our future and most importantly we must use funds that we do not need in the near future in order to withstand in the long run.
When we choose to make a profit in the near future, of course we have to buy when there is a decline but it will be very difficult to know that the extent to which the decline will occur and it will be better we use long -term investment and always be consistent in buying Bitcoin to take advantage in the future.

Since you already know that it will be difficult to determine the extent that the will occur, that's why investors are always encouraged buy bitcoin regularly by utilizing the DCA method. So investors with long term perspective need not wait for the decline.

[Zackz5000]

That's one thing some people who criticise Bitcoin don't understand, they'll make errors that would make them lose their coins and then call it a scam, instead of admitting their mistakes and take corrections, in Cryptocurrency space, especially Bitcoin investment, if you do things the right way you'll thrive but if you do others you lose and that's just it, asides Cryptocurrency, greed has been the downfall of many and they don't learn, you don't have to be too greedy to achieve success and it applies to Bitcoin investment too, cause greed can make one vulnerable to scammers that would easily mislead one into the wrong investment and before you know it their coins would be gone then they start blaming it on Bitcoin forgetting it's their actions that caused it. Doing the right thing pays, and when one picks the right choice of investing in digital currency (Bitcoin) you don't ruin it by being too greedy.

Such incidents are still happening in many countries. There are many countries that do not have a general idea about cryptocurrency. That is why many scammers easily loot a lot of money from the country's unemployed people by tempting them to earn a lot of money in a short time and very easily. In South Asian countries, people often encounter various scam companies, these companies lure people to invest by falsely promoting crypto tokens, later they fail to get the desired results.

There are even many countries that still cannot differentiate between crypto scams and gambling company scams. Especially in countries where the number of unemployed is high and crypto is illegal, scammers continue their activities very easily. Although they are basically victims of scams while gambling, they blame cryptocurrency due to lack of knowledge.

Promoting Bitcoin is also one of the difficult tasks, especially in such countries. Without proper knowledge they will use Bitcoin to get rich quick and when they face loss they will call Bitcoin a scam even they say that. So I think knowledge is the first thing that is important. Without knowledge you will consider Bitcoin as a scam too.

You have moved out from the concept of this thread to what i don't know and we are not even talking about shitcoins in this thread, I doubt if there is any genuine reason to invest into shitcoins, if you don't know the difference between bitcoin and shitcoin then you have to ask so you can be told there is an edage that says he who asked questions never misses road, incase of next time such term cryptocurrency is highly prohibited in this thread as all we are talking about is bitcoin and not shitcoin and shitcoin is not even what we should go into so don't come up with shitcoins in Bitcoin discussion thread and trying to mislead newbies into thinking Bitcoin and shitcoin are thesame.

Knowledge is also important in bitcoin investment but having it's basic knowledge is enough to start up bitcoin investment as long as your discretionary income is available I think having your discretionary income and getting started is the most important thing in bitcoin investment.

[Mayor of ogba]

So, yeah, my idea is keep stacking BTC until you get enough BTC or more than enough for your target. which yeah, it is a moving target, I understand that.

How much usd do you think it is good for retirement in USA?

I know this question was for JayJuanGee to answer, but I would like to share my thoughts on this subject matter. If JayJuanGee or someone else tells you the amount of USD that would be good enough for retirement in the United States of America, it might be from the amount of USD they might need for their retirement, which might be way above what you want or below what you want, and it might be too high for you to achieve or too low to meet up with your dream retirement lifestyle you want to live. If you are already living in the United States of America, you should know the living expenses in the United States of America and the amount of USD that can possibly allow you to live your dream lifestyle in your retirement in the United States of America, so only you can figure out the USD that will be good enough for retirement in the United States of America.

[Btcdeybodi]

I believe that it will be a laughable week.

There will be those people that projected that the bull cycle "is over", who change their opinion to "Bitcoin will surge to ATH" next quarter.

What we plebs need to focus is to ignore the news/predictions/forecasts. Focus on the Bitcoin Weekly Chart with the 200-Weekly Simple Moving Average. Buy during those moments when the price of Bitcoin is near, touching, of UNDER that line. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you are new, you likely need to buy all of the time for a whole cycle - and sure, it becomes problematic if a person comes into bitcoin at or near the top of a price peak in which the BTC price might be several times higher than the 200-WMA... so those kinds of newbies may well have a dilemma regarding their buying of BTC... yet if they are new and they are either a no coiner or a low coiner, they will probably need to get started buying bitcoin consistently, persistently, and ongoingly and perhaps they can make decisions regarding how aggressive that they are able to be in their bitcoin buying while they are making sure that they have decently good cashflow management practices in place and while they already have their sources for bitcoin buying already set up.

Although true, that would also depend on a person's psychological "proclivities" because there is definitely a non-zero chance that some people have already sold with a loss believing that the cycle is "truly over" if they have bought Bitcoin near recent ATH. HODLing is not easy for us unsophisticated plebs, in fact, it's painful to see our life-savings with a 20% or 30% loss.

BUT there's no absolute "correct path". Wait for the DIP or DCA are both good paths to invest in Bitcoin, but it's the HODL that truly matters.

Hodling requires a lot of patience before profits can be achieved so if an investor cannot be patient to withstand market fluctuations it may lead to losses by selling when the price is low due to fear of the price crashing further. Even if an investor bought Bitcoin at the peak and it never come back stronger again in that cycle, while not wait for another cycle to get the profits since it is almost becoming a tradition that the price of Bitcoin is likely to increase pass the previous ATH in every cycle. Waiting for the price to DIP before buying doesn't seem like a good strategy to me instead using the DCA strategy to cover up buying during DIPs will better.

[len01]

selling to buy back cheaper is a dumb idea, and it is contrary to what any newbie should be doing.  We should tell them that is dumb.

Selling lower than you bought is a dumb idea, so we should tell them that is dumb.

Failing/refusing to continue to buy at a reasonable rate is a dumb idea, so we should tell them that is dumb.

It is good that you are saying this, even if it sounds like a bitter truth, and most newbies must have fallen victim to this in a bid to think that they are being smart.

Rushing to sell below the price at which one bought his Bitcoin is dumb. Even from basic economics, when the selling price is less than the cost price, it is only foolish to sell at that price except you are dealing with a perishable asset that can't stay after a certain time. Is Bitcoin in that category? For Bitcoin, even letting it stay is the best way to remain in profit, which makes it dumb to think of selling too suddenly.

Even if you're in profit i.e the price off bitcoin is higher than your entry point, you shouldn't think of selling until you have over accumulated more than enough Bitcoin in your possession. Any investor in his accumulation journey shouldn't sell buy only to keep  on accumulating without relenting. This is why DCA method is very convenient because it gives you the opportunity to continue buying weekly or monthly regularly irrespective of the price of bitcoin.

-snip

What I understand from @JayJuanGee's statement, "a beginner must know the basics of saving".
It means to keep saving (buying) consistently according to the initial plan that has been determined previously. No matter how much the price is as long as it has not reached the planned target as said by @Ruttoshi.

Always thinking about current profits can destroy our initial plan to get profits in the future. Of course that is very dumb and beginners must realize that.

[POPOLUV]

That's one thing some people who criticise Bitcoin don't understand, they'll make errors that would make them lose their coins and then call it a scam, instead of admitting their mistakes and take corrections, in Cryptocurrency space, especially Bitcoin investment, if you do things the right way you'll thrive but if you do others you lose and that's just it, asides Cryptocurrency, greed has been the downfall of many and they don't learn, you don't have to be too greedy to achieve success and it applies to Bitcoin investment too, cause greed can make one vulnerable to scammers that would easily mislead one into the wrong investment and before you know it their coins would be gone then they start blaming it on Bitcoin forgetting it's their actions that caused it. Doing the right thing pays, and when one picks the right choice of investing in digital currency (Bitcoin) you don't ruin it by being too greedy.

Such incidents are still happening in many countries. There are many countries that do not have a general idea about cryptocurrency. That is why many scammers easily loot a lot of money from the country's unemployed people by tempting them to earn a lot of money in a short time and very easily. In South Asian countries, people often encounter various scam companies, these companies lure people to invest by falsely promoting crypto tokens, later they fail to get the desired results.

There are even many countries that still cannot differentiate between crypto scams and gambling company scams. Especially in countries where the number of unemployed is high and crypto is illegal, scammers continue their activities very easily. Although they are basically victims of scams while gambling, they blame cryptocurrency due to lack of knowledge.

Promoting Bitcoin is also one of the difficult tasks, especially in such countries. Without proper knowledge they will use Bitcoin to get rich quick and when they face loss they will call Bitcoin a scam even they say that. So I think knowledge is the first thing that is important. Without knowledge you will consider Bitcoin as a scam too.

Even in the developed countries you will still find people that are falling victim to scams on daily basis. So I don't think it's wise to generalise an entire country in this regard. Even in those countries where you are making references to, there are still people who can't fall for scam. They are well enlightened. One thing I see that makes people fall for scam easily is greed. And if you can't control your greed level, there is no amount of bitcoin knowledge that can fix that for you. Once your greed level is very high, you can easily be scammed. Countries around the world are enlightened about bitcoin already. But when you can't control your urge for urgent money you will go for everything that appears as a shortcut to make money, without doing proper background checks.

I agree with you using the DCA method when the process of collecting Bitcoin will certainly provide an opportunity to continue to get more bitcoin for our future and most importantly we must use funds that we do not need in the near future in order to withstand in the long run.
When we choose to make a profit in the near future, of course we have to buy when there is a decline but it will be very difficult to know that the extent to which the decline will occur and it will be better we use long -term investment and always be consistent in buying Bitcoin to take advantage in the future.

Since you already know that it will be difficult to determine the extent that the will occur, that's why investors are always encouraged buy bitcoin regularly by utilizing the DCA method. So investors with long term perspective need not wait for the decline.

Surely I'm in this lane with you on this, it is greediness and desperate on doubling the already money he has, Bitcoin is  not were you will just start making money immediately, you should have it in mind that when you buy or invest on Bitcoin, there is always needs to hodl dips in long term for you to make a good protfolio, so if you really understand all the protocols governing Bitcoin you never be scam, but a process where by you don't want know how Bitcoin works, and once someone that knows the in and out of Bitcoin come across you, don't be surprised that you have just given a room for the investor that knows Bitcoin well to scam you because u are still a newbie, so be in a rush to quick money increases  the high rate of scammers in the country's.

[philipma1957]

we are lining up 🆙 for some dip prices.

maybe we drop under 81k very soon 🔜

[Jewan420]

What I understand from @JayJuanGee's statement, "a beginner must know the basics of saving".
It means to keep saving (buying) consistently according to the initial plan that has been determined previously. No matter how much the price is as long as it has not reached the planned target as said by @Ruttoshi.

Always thinking about current profits can destroy our initial plan to get profits in the future. Of course that is very dumb and beginners must realize that.

Yes, you have to be consistent in saving (buying) on ​​a weekly or monthly basis. Or you can set a specific time to buy. But you have to be consistent in the time frame you set. This consistency of saving is called DCA investment in the DCA strategy. Most of the forum members probably prefer weekly DCA for saving. Either you buy once a week or buy once in 15 days or buy once a month. You maintain the consistency of buying until you reach the specified goal.

For maximum results in long-term holding, you have to hold for at least 3-4 cycles (12 years or more). Before you can be successful in investing, you have to be successful in holding for the long term. To achieve this success, you have to gain knowledge about Bitcoin investment, take the right steps at the right time and always have a basic plan ready.

[Stormisover]

selling to buy back cheaper is a dumb idea, and it is contrary to what any newbie should be doing.  We should tell them that is dumb.

Selling lower than you bought is a dumb idea, so we should tell them that is dumb.

Failing/refusing to continue to buy at a reasonable rate is a dumb idea, so we should tell them that is dumb.

It is good that you are saying this, even if it sounds like a bitter truth, and most newbies must have fallen victim to this in a bid to think that they are being smart.

Rushing to sell below the price at which one bought his Bitcoin is dumb. Even from basic economics, when the selling price is less than the cost price, it is only foolish to sell at that price except you are dealing with a perishable asset that can't stay after a certain time. Is Bitcoin in that category? For Bitcoin, even letting it stay is the best way to remain in profit, which makes it dumb to think of selling too suddenly.

Even if you're in profit i.e the price off bitcoin is higher than your entry point, you shouldn't think of selling until you have over accumulated more than enough Bitcoin in your possession. Any investor in his accumulation journey shouldn't sell buy only to keep  on accumulating without relenting. This is why DCA method is very convenient because it gives you the opportunity to continue buying weekly or monthly regularly irrespective of the price of bitcoin.

-snip

What I understand from @JayJuanGee's statement, "a beginner must know the basics of saving".
It means to keep saving (buying) consistently according to the initial plan that has been determined previously. No matter how much the price is as long as it has not reached the planned target as said by @Ruttoshi.

Always thinking about current profits can destroy our initial plan to get profits in the future. Of course that is very dumb and beginners must realize that.

I think it is necessary for categories of investors that are still in their accumulation stage and not just the  beginners, because this set of investors are supposed to focus on buying Bitcoin and not their current profit until when they feel that they have accumulated more than enough, then they can consider their current profit and probably a withdrawal strategy.

we are lining up 🆙 for some dip prices.

maybe we drop under 81k very soon 🔜

I guess this is not for a newbie investor, a no or low coiner to be waiting upon their accumulation since they are supposed to be buying all the time provided that their investment money is available and ready with the dca.

[JayJuanGee]

So, yeah, my idea is keep stacking BTC until you get enough BTC or more than enough for your target. which yeah, it is a moving target, I understand that.

Although I do have a really decent amount of btc, I prefer to think in usd terms when considering my portfolio and retirement.

I have about 35% of btc in my portfolio. I think it is high for someone thinking about retirement .

How much usd do you think it is good for retirement in USA?

I don't mind calculating in terms of dollars and/or fiat, yet as you know in recent times, I have been using the 200-WMA in order to valuate the extent to which a person may well need enough.

For the USA or generally western countries, since 2020, I have considered $2 million to be enough to have an entry-level fuck you status, so that means that it would generate $80k per year (with a 4% per year withdrawal rate), yet I consider $800k (17.84 BTC) to be enough to have in bitcoin if it is valued at the 200-WMA, since that would also generate $80k per year with a 10% withdrawal rate based on the dollar value (so long as the spot price is at least 25% or higher above the 200-WMA). 

Prior to 2020, I used to use $1 million as my idea of entry level fuck you status in the USA.. which would have been a $40k  income per year.  Yes, that is entry-level, so there will be variation in which some people are able to get by on less than that amount and others need much more... but yeah, $1million went to $2 million,  but yeah, in bitcoin we can use the 200-WMA and we can also use 10% rather than 4% as our withdrawal rate in order to get to the $40k per year income prior to 2020 or the $80k per year  income after 2020.

Regarding your 35%, sure that is pretty high as a start out amount, yet of course, you are not starting out, and you may well had gotten up to 35% based on BTC price appreciation and then your perhaps choosing to reallocate from time to time.  I don't believe in major reallocations, even though I am not opposed to diversify investing into other asset classes, such as properties, stocks, commodities, bonds and cash/cash equivalents... not referring to having any over reliance on shitcoins.

I had personally gotten up to 10% in 2014, and then I thought that I was overallocated when I got up to 13.5% in late 2015, and surely we know that BTC prices shot up after 2015, so my BTC allocation had gotten into the 80% based on price appreciation, and then it dropped down to 45%-ish during the 2018-ish lows, and then it largely went back up to bounce between 65% and supra 90%.. perhaps even now I am bouncing around 90% allocation to bitcoin, yet that allocation mostly has to do with bitcoin's appreciation and my decision to not reallocate. 

I see no reason to not let my winners ride, and so whatever management I have to do is selling on the way up and buying on the way down, yet I am not selling large amounts of BTC on the way up (perhaps less than 3% every time the BTC price doubles even though I have authorized myself to sell up to 10% every time the BTC price doubles but I have not been doing that), so my BTC holdings are largely continuing to compound on themselves.  I would consider that to be mostly a holding strategy that I have been doing since 2015.

Sure, with you it is likely different from my own, yet I had considered all of my investments outside of bitcoin to have had been enough that I could have had used those in order to live off of them, so over the past 11-ish years, those outside of bitcoin investments have largely stayed the same, and maybe on their own they had appreciated in value to nearly double in value, while my bitcoin investment has performed in the 83x territories, if I were to use $1k per bitcoin as my average cost per bitcoin, since I may well be able to assert that mistakes were made and that is why I use $1k per BTC as a proximation of my average costs per BTC rather than using some other lower cost per BTC amount.

selling to buy back cheaper is a dumb idea, and it is contrary to what any newbie should be doing.  We should tell them that is dumb.

Selling lower than you bought is a dumb idea, so we should tell them that is dumb.

Failing/refusing to continue to buy at a reasonable rate is a dumb idea, so we should tell them that is dumb.

It is good that you are saying this, even if it sounds like a bitter truth, and most newbies must have fallen victim to this in a bid to think that they are being smart.

Rushing to sell below the price at which one bought his Bitcoin is dumb. Even from basic economics, when the selling price is less than the cost price, it is only foolish to sell at that price except you are dealing with a perishable asset that can't stay after a certain time. Is Bitcoin in that category? For Bitcoin, even letting it stay is the best way to remain in profit, which makes it dumb to think of selling too suddenly.

As opposed to selling when the price is below what you have initially bought bitcoin, it should be counted as an opportunity of adding more bitcoin and buying at a cheaper rate. Patience and discipline are what will help one make the best decision when the thought of making a dumb decision comes in.

I am not even suggesting that being in profits is going to relieve anyone from being dumb to be selling prior to going through at least a whole bitcoin cycle of accumulation.

Let's say that someone came into bitcoin in early 2023, and so the person had a plan to invest into bitcoin for 10 years or more, so presumptively this guy is in decently good profits, yet he has ONLY been accumulating bitcoin for right around 2 years, so why should he be selling any of his bitcoin? 

Maybe he has an income around $30k per year, and he had been buying $100 per week of bitcoin since January 2023.  he invested nearly $12k and he had accumulated nearly 0.3 BTC.  He is doing fine, and I think that he should continue to invest what he can and don't be fucking around with selling, even if his BTC holdings are largely in profits, perhaps even crossing at more than 3x profits from time to time.

It is a bad idea to lose focus, and to either stop buying or to sell and speculate to buy back cheaper, when that might end up causing the person to have even less coins.

So, yeah, my idea is keep stacking BTC until you get enough BTC or more than enough for your target. which yeah, it is a moving target, I understand that.

How much usd do you think it is good for retirement in USA?

I know this question was for JayJuanGee to answer, but I would like to share my thoughts on this subject matter. If JayJuanGee or someone else tells you the amount of USD that would be good enough for retirement in the United States of America, it might be from the amount of USD they might need for their retirement, which might be way above what you want or below what you want, and it might be too high for you to achieve or too low to meet up with your dream retirement lifestyle you want to live. If you are already living in the United States of America, you should know the living expenses in the United States of America and the amount of USD that can possibly allow you to live your dream lifestyle in your retirement in the United States of America, so only you can figure out the USD that will be good enough for retirement in the United States of America.

These are reasonable points which also raise the problematic issue of describing the dollar as stable, and so I think that we are much better off to have our investment in something liek bitcoin and to be able to draw a stream of income from it rather than considering putting value into something else.  I think that the bitcoin stream of income is going to keep up with the cost of living increases (and any ongoing and inevitable debasements of the dollar), which I question the extent to which other assets will be able to keep up with such cost of living increases and/or debasement of the dollar and other fiats.

[cryptoWODL]

Hodling requires a lot of patience before profits can be achieved so if an investor cannot be patient to withstand market fluctuations it may lead to losses by selling when the price is low due to fear of the price crashing further.

First of all we need a well integrated portfolio to gain profit and to create this portfolio a lot of patience and there must be continuity in purchasing. My idea is that every investor who wants to start investment in Bitcoin should know that Bitcoin is naturally unstable, So if they still can't tolerate market fluctuations, that is can't be patient even after knowing this, they lack knowledge about the proper investment process.

Even if an investor bought Bitcoin at the peak and it never come back stronger again in that cycle, while not wait for another cycle to get the profits since it is almost becoming a tradition that the price of Bitcoin is likely to increase pass the previous ATH in every cycle.

If an investor buys Bitcoin at a peak even if it doesn't become strong again at that time, he should still wait at least two cycles to take his investment to a stronger position. Moreover as you mentioned, there is a possibility of exceeding the previous ATH in each cycle which is a somewhat inconsistent sentence because we have seen in Bitcoin history that after each Bitcoin halving, the price of Bitcoin has created new ATH. So even in this situation we have to try to be more patient.


https://www.kraken.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-history

[Barikui1]

Hodling requires a lot of patience before profits can be achieved so if an investor cannot be patient to withstand market fluctuations it may lead to losses by selling when the price is low due to fear of the price crashing further.

First of all we need a well integrated portfolio to gain profit and to create this portfolio a lot of patience and there must be continuity in purchasing. My idea is that every investor who wants to start investment in Bitcoin should know that Bitcoin is naturally unstable, So if they still can't tolerate market fluctuations, that is can't be patient even after knowing this, then maybe they still don't know about the investment process.

Even if an investor bought Bitcoin at the peak and it never come back stronger again in that cycle, while not wait for another cycle to get the profits since it is almost becoming a tradition that the price of Bitcoin is likely to increase pass the previous ATH in every cycle.

If an investor buys Bitcoin at a peak even if it doesn't become strong again at that time, he should still wait at least two cycles to take his investment to a stronger position. Moreover as you mentioned, there is a possibility of exceeding the previous ATH in each cycle which is a somewhat inconsistent sentence because we have seen in Bitcoin history that after each Bitcoin halving, the price of Bitcoin has created new ATH. So even in this situation we have to try to be more patient.


https://www.kraken.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-history

This is the exact reason we are clamouring for investors to hold a little bit longer, because the way Bitcoin is wired, it's more beneficial and ideal to hold for a very long period of time thank hold for a short time hoping to make a profit, which I sees as  traders mindset.
Bitcoin is on the rise actually, so their is a higher probability that Bitcoin will keeps on making a new all time high during every circle, and it can go as high as a million dollar or more in the future, it's just a matter of time, so the big question here is that how long can you hold?

An investor might plan on holding it for a very long period of time like three to five circles, but if he has no measures in place that will make him to hold effectively like having a source of income and an emergency funds to sorts out yourself during emergency situations in the future, you might be compel to temper with your holdings even though it's not your will, so it's very important that as we are buying and adding up to our stash of Bitcoin, we shouldn't forget to build a very good emergency funds also, so as to be able to withstand the pressure of any kind of emergency situation that may arises in the future.

[POPOLUV]

Hodling requires a lot of patience before profits can be achieved so if an investor cannot be patient to withstand market fluctuations it may lead to losses by selling when the price is low due to fear of the price crashing further.

First of all we need a well integrated portfolio to gain profit and to create this portfolio a lot of patience and there must be continuity in purchasing. My idea is that every investor who wants to start investment in Bitcoin should know that Bitcoin is naturally unstable, So if they still can't tolerate market fluctuations, that is can't be patient even after knowing this, then maybe they still don't know about the investment process.

Even if an investor bought Bitcoin at the peak and it never come back stronger again in that cycle, while not wait for another cycle to get the profits since it is almost becoming a tradition that the price of Bitcoin is likely to increase pass the previous ATH in every cycle.

If an investor buys Bitcoin at a peak even if it doesn't become strong again at that time, he should still wait at least two cycles to take his investment to a stronger position. Moreover as you mentioned, there is a possibility of exceeding the previous ATH in each cycle which is a somewhat inconsistent sentence because we have seen in Bitcoin history that after each Bitcoin halving, the price of Bitcoin has created new ATH. So even in this situation we have to try to be more patient.


https://www.kraken.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-history

This is the exact reason we are clamouring for investors to hold a little bit longer, because the way Bitcoin is wired, it's more beneficial and ideal to hold for a very long period of time thank hold for a short time hoping to make a profit, which I sees as  traders mindset.
Bitcoin is on the rise actually, so their is a higher probability that Bitcoin will keeps on making a new all time high during every circle, and it can go as high as a million dollar or more in the future, it's just a matter of time, so the big question here is that how long can you hold?

An investor might plan on holding it for a very long period of time like three to five circles, but if he has no measures in place that will make him to hold effectively like having a source of income and an emergency funds to sorts out yourself during emergency situations in the future, you might be compel to temper with your holdings even though it's not your will, so it's very important that as we are buying and adding up to our stash of Bitcoin, we shouldn't forget to build a very good emergency funds also, so as to be able to withstand the pressure of any kind of emergency situation that may arises in the future.

I want to coming in the question you just asked, how long can you hold?, in every threads or forums created you will see this something that is common between them which is Bitcoin, so you can hodl in a very long term if only you adopt the mother of buy buy buy buy buy buy buy..... On this process you see that some of your investments have reached up to 10 to 15 years while some of your investments that is 2 to 5 years is also coming up, since you buy buy buy buy buy buy buy u can decide to see any one of your choice depending on what you want to use the money, so there is no specific time or years but it all about our personal determination and mind that you hodl for a long term. With the ways Bitcoin increases yearly, it shown that the reason why we should buy the dip and hodl, because the table shows that Bitcoin increases yearly, this is the major reason why will should hold dip for longer term

[bitmover]

For the USA or generally western countries, since 2020, I have considered $2 million to be enough to have an entry-level fuck you status, so that means that it would generate $80k per year (with a 4% per year withdrawal rate), yet I consider $800k (17.84 BTC) to be enough to have in bitcoin if it is valued at the 200-WMA, since that would also generate $80k per year with a 10% withdrawal rate based on the dollar value (so long as the spot price is at least 25% or higher above the 200-WMA). 

Prior to 2020, I used to use $1 million as my idea of entry level fuck you status in the USA.. which would have been a $40k  income per year.  Yes, that is entry-level, so there will be variation in which some people are able to get by on less than that amount and others need much more... but yeah, $1million went to $2 million,  but yeah, in bitcoin we can use the 200-WMA and we can also use 10% rather than 4% as our withdrawal rate in order to get to the $40k per year income prior to 2020 or the $80k per year  income after 2020.

Regarding your 35%, sure that is pretty high as a start out amount, yet of course, you are not starting out, and you may well had gotten up to 35% based on BTC price appreciation and then your perhaps choosing to reallocate from time to time.  I don't believe in major reallocations, even though I am not opposed to diversify investing into other asset classes, such as properties, stocks, commodities, bonds and cash/cash equivalents... not referring to having any over reliance on shitcoins.

I had personally gotten up to 10% in 2014, and then I thought that I was overallocated when I got up to 13.5% in late 2015, and surely we know that BTC prices shot up after 2015, so my BTC allocation had gotten into the 80% based on price appreciation, and then it dropped down to 45%-ish during the 2018-ish lows, and then it largely went back up to bounce between 65% and supra 90%.. perhaps even now I am bouncing around 90% allocation to bitcoin, yet that allocation mostly has to do with bitcoin's appreciation and my decision to not reallocate. 

I agree with you mostly.

My target is also something like 2 million  usd, and I agree with that number even living in places such as Brazil.

About 90% of bitcoin allocation. I don't thinkt his is a problem if you already have something like 2mi usd in that 10%. If not, I would reallocate the fuck you status in a diversified portfolio and then add the rest in bitcoin, even if it is 80-90%.


Also, the decision to no reallocate is a decision, just like the decision to sell. Although it looks like  not deciding, not doinng anything is a decision

[Agbamoni]

So, yeah, my idea is keep stacking BTC until you get enough BTC or more than enough for your target. which yeah, it is a moving target, I understand that.

Although I do have a really decent amount of btc, I prefer to think in usd terms when considering my portfolio and retirement.

I have about 35% of btc in my portfolio. I think it is high for someone thinking about retirement .

How much usd do you think it is good for retirement in USA?

I don't mind calculating in terms of dollars and/or fiat, yet as you know in recent times, I have been using the 200-WMA in order to valuate the extent to which a person may well need enough.

For the USA or generally western countries, since 2020, I have considered $2 million to be enough to have an entry-level fuck you status, so that means that it would generate $80k per year (with a 4% per year withdrawal rate), yet I consider $800k (17.84 BTC) to be enough to have in bitcoin if it is valued at the 200-WMA, since that would also generate $80k per year with a 10% withdrawal rate based on the dollar value (so long as the spot price is at least 25% or higher above the 200-WMA). 

Prior to 2020, I used to use $1 million as my idea of entry level fuck you status in the USA.. which would have been a $40k  income per year.  Yes, that is entry-level, so there will be variation in which some people are able to get by on less than that amount and others need much more... but yeah, $1million went to $2 million,  but yeah, in bitcoin we can use the 200-WMA and we can also use 10% rather than 4% as our withdrawal rate in order to get to the $40k per year income prior to 2020 or the $80k per year  income after 2020.

Regarding your 35%, sure that is pretty high as a start out amount, yet of course, you are not starting out, and you may well had gotten up to 35% based on BTC price appreciation and then your perhaps choosing to reallocate from time to time.  I don't believe in major reallocations, even though I am not opposed to diversify investing into other asset classes, such as properties, stocks, commodities, bonds and cash/cash equivalents... not referring to having any over reliance on shitcoins.

I had personally gotten up to 10% in 2014, and then I thought that I was overallocated when I got up to 13.5% in late 2015, and surely we know that BTC prices shot up after 2015, so my BTC allocation had gotten into the 80% based on price appreciation, and then it dropped down to 45%-ish during the 2018-ish lows, and then it largely went back up to bounce between 65% and supra 90%.. perhaps even now I am bouncing around 90% allocation to bitcoin, yet that allocation mostly has to do with bitcoin's appreciation and my decision to not reallocate. 

I see no reason to not let my winners ride, and so whatever management I have to do is selling on the way up and buying on the way down, yet I am not selling large amounts of BTC on the way up (perhaps less than 3% every time the BTC price doubles even though I have authorized myself to sell up to 10% every time the BTC price doubles but I have not been doing that), so my BTC holdings are largely continuing to compound on themselves.  I would consider that to be mostly a holding strategy that I have been doing since 2015.

Sure, with you it is likely different from my own, yet I had considered all of my investments outside of bitcoin to have had been enough that I could have had used those in order to live off of them, so over the past 11-ish years, those outside of bitcoin investments have largely stayed the same, and maybe on their own they had appreciated in value to nearly double in value, while my bitcoin investment has performed in the 83x territories, if I were to use $1k per bitcoin as my average cost per bitcoin, since I may well be able to assert that mistakes were made and that is why I use $1k per BTC as a proximation of my average costs per BTC rather than using some other lower cost per BTC amount.

Wow your Bitcoin journey since 2013 or earlier before then is very inspiring. As at 2015 i was actually still a high school finisher. Although i had interest in Bitcoin but couldn't afford to spare a dollar to get one then. In relating it with the experience you have had since 2014 and 2015 especially 2015 where you sold on the way up and buy all the way down. I want to believe that those times were time when Bitcoin was fluctuation a lot probably giving more opportunities to buy on dip. Literally you only did that to increase your Bitcoin holdings not that you want to sell for FIAT or anything else. Since then, i guess you have been holding onto your sats because it will be very wrong if you sell all the way up and buy all the way down at this time. Of course one will see it to be a trading pattern. Bitcoins volatility now and then is more of a bit difference.

[MainIbem]

Hodling requires a lot of patience before profits can be achieved so if an investor cannot be patient to withstand market fluctuations it may lead to losses by selling when the price is low due to fear of the price crashing further.

First of all we need a well integrated portfolio to gain profit and to create this portfolio a lot of patience and there must be continuity in purchasing. My idea is that every investor who wants to start investment in Bitcoin should know that Bitcoin is naturally unstable, So if they still can't tolerate market fluctuations, that is can't be patient even after knowing this, they lack knowledge about the proper investment process.

Even if an investor bought Bitcoin at the peak and it never come back stronger again in that cycle, while not wait for another cycle to get the profits since it is almost becoming a tradition that the price of Bitcoin is likely to increase pass the previous ATH in every cycle.

If an investor buys Bitcoin at a peak even if it doesn't become strong again at that time, he should still wait at least two cycles to take his investment to a stronger position. Moreover as you mentioned, there is a possibility of exceeding the previous ATH in each cycle which is a somewhat inconsistent sentence because we have seen in Bitcoin history that after each Bitcoin halving, the price of Bitcoin has created new ATH. So even in this situation we have to try to be more patient.


https://www.kraken.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-history

You said well, however the image above can be used as a form of motivation to keep holding, looking at it gives hope cause it shows how bitcoin has increased over the years even though it portrays the price per btc at halving. For those who think holding Bitcoin is tough, yes it's not very easy you'll undergoing temptations, that's very sure but holding for a longer period is very possible, it's something that's realistic once you make up your mind to be patient and disciplined with it. Sometimes when the going gets tough, you get tougher by dating back to the history of Bitcoin and how great it's shown and proven it's potential over the years to this point, that alone would motivate you to keep going, on the other hands be sure to have a stable income too, it matters alot when it comes to holding for long-term.

[Umulala-alala]

Hodling requires a lot of patience before profits can be achieved so if an investor cannot be patient to withstand market fluctuations it may lead to losses by selling when the price is low due to fear of the price crashing further.

First of all we need a well integrated portfolio to gain profit and to create this portfolio a lot of patience and there must be continuity in purchasing. My idea is that every investor who wants to start investment in Bitcoin should know that Bitcoin is naturally unstable, So if they still can't tolerate market fluctuations, that is can't be patient even after knowing this, then maybe they still don't know about the investment process.

Even if an investor bought Bitcoin at the peak and it never come back stronger again in that cycle, while not wait for another cycle to get the profits since it is almost becoming a tradition that the price of Bitcoin is likely to increase pass the previous ATH in every cycle.

If an investor buys Bitcoin at a peak even if it doesn't become strong again at that time, he should still wait at least two cycles to take his investment to a stronger position. Moreover as you mentioned, there is a possibility of exceeding the previous ATH in each cycle which is a somewhat inconsistent sentence because we have seen in Bitcoin history that after each Bitcoin halving, the price of Bitcoin has created new ATH. So even in this situation we have to try to be more patient.


https://www.kraken.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-history

This is the exact reason we are clamouring for investors to hold a little bit longer, because the way Bitcoin is wired, it's more beneficial and ideal to hold for a very long period of time thank hold for a short time hoping to make a profit, which I sees as  traders mindset.
Bitcoin is on the rise actually, so their is a higher probability that Bitcoin will keeps on making a new all time high during every circle, and it can go as high as a million dollar or more in the future, it's just a matter of time, so the big question here is that how long can you hold?

An investor might plan on holding it for a very long period of time like three to five circles, but if he has no measures in place that will make him to hold effectively like having a source of income and an emergency funds to sorts out yourself during emergency situations in the future, you might be compel to temper with your holdings even though it's not your will, so it's very important that as we are buying and adding up to our stash of Bitcoin, we shouldn't forget to build a very good emergency funds also, so as to be able to withstand the pressure of any kind of emergency situation that may arises in the future.

I want to coming in the question you just asked, how long can you hold?, in every threads or forums created you will see this something that is common between them which is Bitcoin, so you can hodl in a very long term if only you adopt the mother of buy buy buy buy buy buy buy..... On this process you see that some of your investments have reached up to 10 to 15 years while some of your investments that is 2 to 5 years is also coming up, since you buy buy buy buy buy buy buy u can decide to see any one of your choice depending on what you want to use the money, so there is no specific time or years but it all about our personal determination and mind that you hodl for a long term. With the ways Bitcoin increases yearly, it shown that the reason why we should buy the dip and hodl, because the table shows that Bitcoin increases yearly, this is the major reason why will should hold dip for longer term

Buying the dip and hodl doesn't mean you will only be targeting bitcoin to dip before you can buy, so buying consistently, persistently regularly using the dca method will surely buy enough bitcoin when you buy and hodl for 4-10 and more buying with your discretionary Income by such your  portfolio might have increased and also see on how you can increase your financial source so that you can buy bitcoin aggressively with your discretionary Income because if you keep to wait when there is only dip you won't have a good bitcoin portfolio and is not a better way to buy bitcoin expecially for those who is just starting bitcoin investment.

[GiftedMAN]

Hodling requires a lot of patience before profits can be achieved so if an investor cannot be patient to withstand market fluctuations it may lead to losses by selling when the price is low due to fear of the price crashing further.

First of all we need a well integrated portfolio to gain profit and to create this portfolio a lot of patience and there must be continuity in purchasing. My idea is that every investor who wants to start investment in Bitcoin should know that Bitcoin is naturally unstable, So if they still can't tolerate market fluctuations, that is can't be patient even after knowing this, then maybe they still don't know about the investment process.

Even if an investor bought Bitcoin at the peak and it never come back stronger again in that cycle, while not wait for another cycle to get the profits since it is almost becoming a tradition that the price of Bitcoin is likely to increase pass the previous ATH in every cycle.

If an investor buys Bitcoin at a peak even if it doesn't become strong again at that time, he should still wait at least two cycles to take his investment to a stronger position. Moreover as you mentioned, there is a possibility of exceeding the previous ATH in each cycle which is a somewhat inconsistent sentence because we have seen in Bitcoin history that after each Bitcoin halving, the price of Bitcoin has created new ATH. So even in this situation we have to try to be more patient.


https://www.kraken.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-history

This is the exact reason we are clamouring for investors to hold a little bit longer, because the way Bitcoin is wired, it's more beneficial and ideal to hold for a very long period of time thank hold for a short time hoping to make a profit, which I sees as  traders mindset.
Bitcoin is on the rise actually, so their is a higher probability that Bitcoin will keeps on making a new all time high during every circle, and it can go as high as a million dollar or more in the future, it's just a matter of time, so the big question here is that how long can you hold?

An investor might plan on holding it for a very long period of time like three to five circles, but if he has no measures in place that will make him to hold effectively like having a source of income and an emergency funds to sorts out yourself during emergency situations in the future, you might be compel to temper with your holdings even though it's not your will, so it's very important that as we are buying and adding up to our stash of Bitcoin, we shouldn't forget to build a very good emergency funds also, so as to be able to withstand the pressure of any kind of emergency situation that may arises in the future.

I want to coming in the question you just asked, how long can you hold?, in every threads or forums created you will see this something that is common between them which is Bitcoin, so you can hodl in a very long term if only you adopt the mother of buy buy buy buy buy buy buy..... On this process you see that some of your investments have reached up to 10 to 15 years while some of your investments that is 2 to 5 years is also coming up, since you buy buy buy buy buy buy buy u can decide to see any one of your choice depending on what you want to use the money, so there is no specific time or years but it all about our personal determination and mind that you hodl for a long term. With the ways Bitcoin increases yearly, it shown that the reason why we should buy the dip and hodl, because the table shows that Bitcoin increases yearly, this is the major reason why will should hold dip for longer term

Buying the dip and hodl doesn't mean you will only be targeting bitcoin to dip before you can buy, so buying consistently, persistently regularly using the dca method will surely buy enough bitcoin when you buy and hodl for 4-10 and more buying with your discretionary Income by such you might portfolio might have increased and also see on how you can increase your financial source so that you can buy bitcoin aggressively with your discretionary Income because if you keep when there is only dip you won't have a good bitcoin portfolio and is not a better way to buy bitcoin expecially for those who is just starting bitcoin investment.

Let me give you a little hint about the importance of buying the dip to hodl for long term, not that you have anything to lose as a long term investor infact using the DCA method helps you to buy at any price not minding the price of Bitcoin at any given time but buying Bitcoin during the dip gives you the advantage to accumulate more Bitcoin with lesser amount that you would have spent when the price of Bitcoin is high that is why long term investor take every opportunity of the dip to accumulate more and more Bitcoin to their portfolio to hodl knowing that they stand a better chance of maximizing profit in the long run.
The DCA method is not only for new investors or early starters but I think it is meant for those who can afford to invest with little amount of money cause the DCA method helps the investor to invest the amount that is suitable for him, what he can afford to invest with either weekly or monthly and it helps the investor to be avoid thinking and stress when they see the price of Bitcoin not rising.

[JayJuanGee]

Hodling requires a lot of patience before profits can be achieved so if an investor cannot be patient to withstand market fluctuations it may lead to losses by selling when the price is low due to fear of the price crashing further.

First of all we need a well integrated portfolio to gain profit and to create this portfolio a lot of patience and there must be continuity in purchasing. My idea is that every investor who wants to start investment in Bitcoin should know that Bitcoin is naturally unstable, So if they still can't tolerate market fluctuations, that is can't be patient even after knowing this, they lack knowledge about the proper investment process.

Even if an investor bought Bitcoin at the peak and it never come back stronger again in that cycle, while not wait for another cycle to get the profits since it is almost becoming a tradition that the price of Bitcoin is likely to increase pass the previous ATH in every cycle.

If an investor buys Bitcoin at a peak even if it doesn't become strong again at that time, he should still wait at least two cycles to take his investment to a stronger position. Moreover as you mentioned, there is a possibility of exceeding the previous ATH in each cycle which is a somewhat inconsistent sentence because we have seen in Bitcoin history that after each Bitcoin halving, the price of Bitcoin has created new ATH. So even in this situation we have to try to be more patient.

https://www.kraken.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-history

Just to clarify the above table shows the bitcoin price at the time of the halvening, and surely each year bitcoin has a price range that can be quite broad both in terms of absolute number and even in terms of percentage differences between highs and lows for the year.  

We can put those kinds of charts together ourselves and see the highs and lows for each of the years and compare them.

Another thing that we can do to valuate our BTC is to look at the 200-WMA (which is the average weekly price for the past 4 years), and we can see that so far in bitcoin's history the 200-WMA has ONLY been going up.  The 200-WMA is not guaranteed to continue to go up, even though it can still give us some guidelines in regards to bitcoin's value including that if we invest fairly steadily and readily into bitcoin for 4 years, then our average cost per BTC should be somewhere around the 200-WMA, and frequently the BTC spot price is 25% or  more higher than the 200-WMA.  Right now BTC's spot price of $86.6k is about 84% higher than the 200-WMA of $44.9k.

[edited out]

I agree with you mostly.
My target is also something like 2 million  usd, and I agree with that number even living in places such as Brazil.

About 90% of bitcoin allocation. I don't thinkt his is a problem if you already have something like 2mi usd in that 10%. If not, I would reallocate the fuck you status in a diversified portfolio and then add the rest in bitcoin, even if it is 80-90%.

Also, the decision to no reallocate is a decision, just like the decision to sell. Although it looks like  not deciding, not doinng anything is a decision

I understand that my formulas for bitcoin are a bit complicated based on valuating based on the 200-WMA and using a 10% withdrawal rate based on the 200-WMA.  

I think that any other assets that you invest into, you need to use the traditional 4% withdrawal rate.  So in that regard, I am not emphasizing the amount as much as I am emphasizing the income that you project that you need and you are able to withdraw from your investment without depleting its principle... so in that regard, the principle should continue to grow at least as fast as you are withdrawing from it, and even greater than the rate that you are withdrawing from it in order to account for the debasement of the fiat and/or the cost of living increases.  

So, I am trying to suggest that if you have good systems in place, then you bitcoin value should be growing faster than what you are withdrawing from it, so each year you are able to keep up with the cost of living increases by increasing your withdrawal rate, even in years that the increases in the cost of living might be 2% to 5% and perhaps other years the increases in the cost of living might be 10% to 15%. ..

and yeah, surely some currencies debase faster than others, so we need to consider those rate of depreciation expectation matters too... even though I doubt that any of us necessarily need to be future price prediction gurus when we are largely keeping decent portions of our value in bitcoin.. and yeah, sure we can monitor the extent to which the BTC price might start to fall below 25% higher than the 200-WMA in order to attempt to anticipate if we might need to lessen our withdrawal rate so that we are not overly depleting our principle, and/or we can potentially withdraw at a bit higher rates if we see that the BTC price is several times higher than the 200-WMA, perhaps in order to prepare ourselves for times in which the BTC price is lower (such as lower than 25% above the 200-WMA or lower than that).

Of course, any of my formulas are likely going to be more informed when any of us have reached or exceeded our BTC accumulation amount, so right now in the west, if we consider our BTC accumulation target as 17.84 BTC to generate an income of $80k per year in perpetuity, and we continue to monitor the amount so that if we are starting to cash out, then our BTC value never goes below $800k in terms of it's 200-WMA.  It surely would help our situation if we might have a few BTC extra, so then we would be spending from the extra cushion rather than potentially depleting our BTC stash below the current entry level threshold for fuck you status.  

I have been monitoring the threshold amount for entry-level fuck you status for several months now, and I have even been looking back at prior years to see that the quantity of BTC needed to reach the minimum threshold levels continues to go down at a quite considerable rate, and in recent weeks/months, the threshold amount of BTC to be able to live off of a $80k per year income from your bitcoin has been going down 0.01 BTC to 0.02 BTC each day.  Of course, the lower the threshold entry-level number goes, the lower the amount it is going to reduce each day too... which still gets us back to the idea that the amount of BTC needed to reach the threshold (whatever your threshold might be in terms of dollar value) is likely to continue to half about every 3-4 years.

And yeah sure, we cannot exactly know the future, even though we can attempt to have various cushions in place, which also gets me back to the suggestion that it is good for a guy to exceed his threshold amount, and then largely to be ongoingly spending (withdrawing) from his excess amount of BTC and making sure that his principle is staying higher than his fuck you status threshold amount - where-ever he puts that.  Think about the guy who considers that he has a desire to maintain an $80k annual income into perpetuity, and so he considers that today 17.84 BTC is his threshold amount to be within that status to start his sustainable withdrawal practices that might be based on price and/or time.  Think about how much better he would feel if he were to have 21 BTC rather than the bare minimum of 17.84 BTC?   That would mean that he currently has 4.16 BTC extra upon which to create a psychological cushion and in order to start withdrawing, whether he starts withdrawing monthly, quarterly, semi-annually, annually or on some other basis.  Surely if he were going to cash out a year in advance, then he would need to cash out right around 1 BTC, which would bring his holdings down to 20 BTC.  Otherwise maybe he just cashes out once a month.. but then surely the BTC price varies a lot, so he might want to try to time his cashing out in order to expect to have to cash out less, rather than more, and surely if he had started to cash out in January when the BTC price was around $109k, then he would have had ONLY around 0.74 BTC in order to have his $80k cashed out in advance.

[edited out

Wow your Bitcoin journey since 2013 or earlier before then is very inspiring. As at 2015 i was actually still a high school finisher. Although i had interest in Bitcoin but couldn't afford to spare a dollar to get one then.

I know the feeling of not having any (or hardly any income), and I had similar circumstances in my younger years, including that some guys (including myself) decide to go to college, which costs money to go to college and to continue to support ourselves, and being in college can also take away time to be able to earn money.  Some of our goals in going to college might relate to being able to earn more money at a later date, and hopefully to make the college to be worth while in terms of doors it might open to future income opportunities... and even life satisfaction opportunities.

In relating it with the experience you have had since 2014 and 2015 especially 2015 where you sold on the way up and buy all the way down. I want to believe that those times were time when Bitcoin was fluctuation a lot probably giving more opportunities to buy on dip. Literally you only did that to increase your Bitcoin holdings not that you want to sell for FIAT or anything else.

I think that there is a common misconception in regards to selling.  I was not selling with an intention to buy back cheaper, but instead I was selling as a form of downside insurance and also to provide money so that if I wanted to spend some of it that I sold.

Once you have assessed that you have enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin, then you would be selling from the excess amounts of bitcoin, so sure I did end up buying Bitcoin back at lower prices since the BTC price fluctuated a lot, yet my intention was never to increase my BTC stash.  Believe it or not.  People have a hard time understanding this aspect of bitcoin portfolio management. and the fact that any sales are coming from an overaccumulated amount of BTC.

When I first started selling BTC, I had considered that I had reached a status of overaccumulation, and so I created various my formulas that would allow me to sell certain portions of BTC on the way up, including that the amounts were so small that the dollar value of my BTC holdings would continue to go up faster than the amount that I would sell, so in that regard, I considered the sold amounts to be providing insurance for the downside and not necessarily any kind of way to increase my BTC stash, even if some increase in my BTC stash size would end up being a bit of a side-effect in the event that the BTC price were to go down.  

If BTC prices were around $250 in 2015, and if I had 10 BTC, then my total BTC stash would have had been worth $2,500.  If the BTC price doubled to $500, then my BTC stash would be worth $5k, so I could consider that my stash would be 50% in profits and 50% principle.  

If I were ONLY to sell from the profits, then I could sell half of the profits or even less than half of the profits, so in those beginning times, I had authorized myself to sell up to 10% of the stash size for every time that the BTC price doubled, yet as time went on, the amount that I authorized myself to sell became less and less and any portions that I did not sell that were in profits would compound upon themselves.  If I were to sell up to 10% of a 10 BTC stash, then that would bring the BTC stash size down to 9 BTC which would be valued at $4,500 with $500 in cash that would have had been generated from the sale.  So a stash could be depleted a lot if the stash is not in an overaccumulation stage, and at that time, I had considered my stash to be overaccumulated by around 35%..  My then goal was to have BTC to be 10% of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio, yet at that time (towards the end of 2015), my BTC portfolio had reached 13.5% of my total quasi-liquid investment portfolio.

These days, I am selling less than 3% of the value of my BTC holdings for every time that the BTC price doubles.. .which means that more and more of the value of my BTC holdings is compounding upon itself, I am mostly erroring on the side of holding my BTC, and I consider any amount of BTC that I sell to be insurance for downside protection rather than ways to increase my BTC stash size - even if there is some marginal increase in my stash size from buying back bitcoin when the BTC price goes down, largely my BTC stash size is mostly just maintaining itself rather than increasing in size.

In other words, I am way better off if the BTC price goes up rather down in terms of my BTC valuation, and I do not consider any of my BTC sales to be major in their amounts or attempts to trade or to buy back cheaper rather than just maintaining my stack and/or providing some downside price protection insurance in regards to the amounts of BTC that I am continuing to sell when the BTC price goes up.

Since then, i guess you have been holding onto your sats because it will be very wrong if you sell all the way up and buy all the way down at this time. Of course one will see it to be a trading pattern.

I have continued in the same practice since 2015.  I consider my system to largely be price neutral, and I consider that I have ONLY been able to do it based on my having had considered myself to have had reached a status of overaccumulation in 2015, and even though I have adapted several of my formulas over the years, I have been following the same system, and I do not consider what I am doing to be trading.  People have accused me of trading, and I proclaim that I am not, based on how I am doing it and the way that I have my system set up in terms of price neutrality and also in terms of having had assessed myself to have had reached a status of overaccumulation.. which my system has largely been allowing my bitcoin value to mostly compound upon itself around 8 or 9 times since 2015 when the BTC price was around $250.  See my compounding value table to show 2015 until present.

Bitcoins volatility now and then is more of a bit difference.

Volatility seems to be going down, yet I still would consider bitcoin's volatility to be inevitable, including that sometimes there seem to be some strange battles going on behind the scenes, which I cannot see those battles and even manipulations or even discovery of fraud (such as third-parties not having the coins that they claim to have) from continuing to be going on and to discovered through the price and/or through various news outcomes from time to time.

Of course, bitcoin's investment thesis is stronger now, as compared with 2015, but at the same time, its volatility has not likely completely gone away, even though it seems to be likely that the upside potential (in terms of percentages) are not likely to be as great, even if I personally consider that bitcoin's current addressable market is in the ballpark of $1 quadrillion, we are around 500x below that amount, yet in the past bitcoin has done around 200x price appreciation between 2015 and present... if we consider $250 as the 2015 price and $109k as our most recent BTC price top.

Some folks talk about $1 million bitcoin as if it were some amazing price, and that hardly seems to be very far into the distance with a mere 10x price appreciation.. whether we see an additional 10x this cycle or maybe the next cycle, yet I have a hard time considering that it might take us longer than a whole cycle or a cycle and a half in order to reach another 10x in the BTC price.. even though surely we should not be taking any of BTC's future price appreciations for granted.

[edited out]

Let me give you a little hint about the importance of buying the dip to hodl for long term, not that you have anything to lose as a long term investor infact using the DCA method helps you to buy at any price not minding the price of Bitcoin at any given time but buying Bitcoin during the dip gives you the advantage to accumulate more Bitcoin with lesser amount that you would have spent when the price of Bitcoin is high that is why long term investor take every opportunity of the dip to accumulate more and more Bitcoin to their portfolio to hodl knowing that they stand a better chance of maximizing profit in the long run.
The DCA method is not only for new investors or early starters but I think it is meant for those who can afford to invest with little amount of money cause the DCA method helps the investor to invest the amount that is suitable for him, what he can afford to invest with either weekly or monthly and it helps the investor to be avoid thinking and stress when they see the price of Bitcoin not rising.

You (GiftedMAN) have a strange way of describing our motivations to buy the dip, as if there were not trade offs in regards to guys who might choose to hold back some value from their DCA in order to plan to buy dips that may or may not end up happening.

It is better for beginners to focus on DCA rather than buying dips, even though sure there could be some circumstances that make sense to hold back some value for buying BTC dips rather than just buying regularly with whatever DCA amounts of funds are available as they come in.

Sure you will be able to get more BTC if you buy on a dip versus if you buy right before a dip, yet holding back to buy on dips likely puts you into the wrong kind of mindset - unless you are still prioritizing buying regularly and having some limits in regards to how you are constructing your dip buys, if you conclude/speculate that you are getting some benefit from that.

I will agree that there can be some psychological satisfaction to buy the dip, yet that psychological factor does not necessarily justify putting systems in place to wait for the dip rather than buying regularly as the money comes in... or alternatively, if you have $100 coming in every week, and you decide to buy $80 right away and hold the other $20 for buying dips, then you have to figure out how much of a dip you need to use the $20 and how large will you let the $20 per week grow before you use it.  After 10 weeks, the $20 per week will add up to $200 if you had not yet used it.  The answers are not obvious, so each of us (including newbies to bitcoin) has to figure out if there might be reasonable ways to supplement any of our DCA practices with buying on dips... dips that may or may not end up happening.

[Derekfunds]

Hodling requires a lot of patience before profits can be achieved so if an investor cannot be patient to withstand market fluctuations it may lead to losses by selling when the price is low due to fear of the price crashing further.

First of all we need a well integrated portfolio to gain profit and to create this portfolio a lot of patience and there must be continuity in purchasing. My idea is that every investor who wants to start investment in Bitcoin should know that Bitcoin is naturally unstable, So if they still can't tolerate market fluctuations, that is can't be patient even after knowing this, they lack knowledge about the proper investment process.

Even if an investor bought Bitcoin at the peak and it never come back stronger again in that cycle, while not wait for another cycle to get the profits since it is almost becoming a tradition that the price of Bitcoin is likely to increase pass the previous ATH in every cycle.

If an investor buys Bitcoin at a peak even if it doesn't become strong again at that time, he should still wait at least two cycles to take his investment to a stronger position. Moreover as you mentioned, there is a possibility of exceeding the previous ATH in each cycle which is a somewhat inconsistent sentence because we have seen in Bitcoin history that after each Bitcoin halving, the price of Bitcoin has created new ATH. So even in this situation we have to try to be more patient.


https://www.kraken.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-history

You said well, however the image above can be used as a form of motivation to keep holding, looking at it gives hope cause it shows how bitcoin has increased over the years even though it portrays the price per btc at halving. For those who think holding Bitcoin is tough, yes it's not very easy you'll undergoing temptations, that's very sure but holding for a longer period is very possible, it's something that's realistic once you make up your mind to be patient and disciplined with it. Sometimes when the going gets tough, you get tougher by dating back to the history of Bitcoin and how great it's shown and proven it's potential over the years to this point, that alone would motivate you to keep going, on the other hands be sure to have a stable income too, it matters alot when it comes to holding for long-term.

You are absolutely correct, merely looking at this graph one will be so tempted and interested to invest in Bitcoin and the truth is the appreciation doesn't end here as years are going by so is the price and value of Bitcoin increasing that means in years to come this graph will be increased I mean some years which we are going to pass will be included and and people who doesn't hold now will be regretting why they didn't hold even when they had the opportunity just as many is seeing this graph and regretting. Investing in Bitcoin is not easy true but you don't need everything before you can start investing that is is to say that you must not have stable source income first, and so it will be better if we all seize this opportunity and accumulate as much as possible so that we don't look at Bitcoin value tomorrow and be hissing and regretting.